twinbythebay

Which of our relief pitchers have been "overworked"? I understand that there is a narrative that a certain segment of fans like to push that because our starters don't pitch as deep into games as they would like, it means that the bullpen is being overworked. There's just no evidence to support this. Strategies change over time, and the days when starters pitch 7-8 innings and teams only have 2-3 reliable relievers are largely gone.

I just think the bullpen's performance is way, way down the list of factors that were most to blame for the loss. They gave up one earned run in four innings! Even if Polanco makes that play or Romo strikes out Altuve there instead of walking him, what are we left with? A 1-1 game in the 9th inning where the offense hadn't even sniffed a scoring opportunity in multiple innings. It doesn't matter how good the bullpen is if the bats are incapable of coming through when they're needed.

Hell of a time to make your third error of the season...

I don't get the hate for two guys who have pitched pretty effectively for most of the season, nor for the front office and manager that have put together back to back division championship teams. Romo pitched well enough to get out of that inning, but was let down by an atrocious defensive play. I thought Rocco pushed all the right buttons, but his lineup and defense simply let him down. What more can he do? There's plenty of blame to go around, and I'd place pretty much all of it on Polanco's defense and the lineup in general.

Why not let Hill pitch when the division title was on the line? Were you expecting him to start instead of Pineda in game 3? As far as a long relief option, I think Odorizzi provides just as much value as Hill would have provided in this series. I can see your point about Kirilloff vs. Wade... My guess is that they want a bench bat with some pop given Donaldson's absence, and Kirilloff certainly provides more power than Wade.

Hill will most definitely be on the roster in the next round if they advance. What good would he be in this round given that he just started a game on Sunday? Also, just because Kirilloff is on the roster for this series doesn't mean he'll be getting any meaningful at-bats. It's possible he will, but to be honest, 28 players is way more than any team should feasibly need for a three game series anyway.

There's also the simple fact that this is the first time the Twins have been favored in a postseason series since... I don't even know when! I don't think they have been favored in any series since 2000; even in the one series that they won (2002 vs. the A's) they were pretty heavy underdogs. I think they are clearly the better team in this series, but anything can happen in the postseason, especially in a three game series.

Alternate view, from a lifelong Minnesota sports fan with a penchant for pessimism: 1. Today's outcome was the best possible outcome in my mind: winning the division, securing a home series, and playing the Astros, who finish the season below .500 and are without their ace starting pitcher and at least one of their best hitters. 2. Kepler, Arraez, and Rosario, three of our most important hitters, are all hot coming into the postseason. Sure, I'll admit, the recent performances of Sano and Cruz, along with Garver's season long slump, have me worried. As do Donaldon's and Buxton's injuries. But there's just as much reason for optimism as pessimism in the lineup in my mind. All that being said, I'm not a big believer in "momentum" in baseball. How many times have we seen Sano seemingly flick a switch and suddenly turn back into a baseball-mashing god? I'm not especially worried about the lineup, and Houston's pitching doesn't look too scary to me. 3. Are the Twins really entering the postseason at "low tide" just because they lost the last series of the season? They were 3-2 in their last week, 5-3 over the past three series, and 16-7 in the month of September, which is tied with the Dodgers for the best September record in MLB. They finished the season with 36 wins, which is more than Vegas, Fangraphs, or any other preseason projection that I saw predicted. What more did you want? Look, it's entirely possible that the Twins lose their next two games and get swept out of the playoffs, but I wouldn't be that surprised if that happened to the Dodgers either. It's baseball, and it's a three game series. But is there any real basis for this level of pessimism, besides trying to ward off jinxes and appease the vengeful baseball gods? Maybe I'm an idiot, but I don't think things could have played out any better for the Twins today. Looking forward to the postseason!

What makes you think it would've been better to keep playing Cruz when he had a sore knee? He wasn't looking right for the week or two before Rocco sat him, and the Twins won all four of the games he sat anyway. I'm a little nervous about Cruz at this point too, but I'm hoping his experience helps him get back on track for the playoffs.

The funny thing is that the odds of the Twins winning the division actually increased tonight! The bats weren't totally flat tonight, but the hitting with RISP was obviously atrocious. I understand some of the grumpiness after a game like that, but it gets to be a little over the top around here sometimes, especially considering this team is is still playing at a 98-win pace.

I think this is a reasonable take. If our bullpen truly does pitch worse against teams that have had a lot of looks at them recently, one might draw the conclusion that it's better to face the Yankees in the first round rather than Cleveland. However, I'm sure that familiarity works both ways... The Twins have done well against Cleveland's best pitchers, especially in that last three game sweep. I honestly can't decide who I'd rather have the Twins face, but as long as they're at home, I still like their chances against any opponent.

I wish people would quit claiming that the bullpen is "overworked" without providing any evidence. Yes, the bullpen has been used a lot this year, but it has also been incredibly deep so no one pitcher has been overworked. I don't think any pitcher has pitched more than two days in a row, and the vast majority of their appearances have been one inning or less. The season is only 60 games long, and none of our bullpen pitchers have pitched more than 25 innings yet. They will have normal fluctuations in results, that's just how baseball works. But even after giving up 3 runs in 3 innings last night, the bullpen is virtually tied with the Rays for the highest fWAR in MLB, their ERA is 5th best in MLB, and their FIP is 6th best in MLB. Overall, the bullpen has been one of the team's most consistent strengths this season.

I'm pretty sure the rotation is setup for Maeda to start game 1, followed by Berrios and then Pineda (if necessary). In the late innings, I think the Twins will play the matchups to determine who comes out of the bullpen. If a bunch of lefties are coming up, I think they'll still go with Rogers. If it's a bunch of righties, I'd expect them to go with Duffey or Romo. If they desperately need a strikeout or two, they might go to May. Garver's dong last night was majestic, but I'd like to see him put the ball in play (or over the fence) a couple more times before declaring that his offense is definitely picking back up. Jeffers has been a godsend, and I would have no problem with them rolling with him in the playoffs. I suspect they'll go with a mix of the two, as Rocco rarely starts the same catcher more than two games in a row.

Sheesh, it sounds like Rogers has personally wronged you in the past. I, for one, am glad that Rocco isn't as fickle as the majority of Twins fans, and I bet his players feel the same way.

I know it's hard to accept given his results this season, but the underlying numbers still support Rogers being one of our best pitchers out of the pen, which is what Wes Johnson and Rocco tend to focus on. I think it would be a mistake to stop using Rogers altogether, but I'm not sure if he'll necessarily get the ball in every save situation going forward. I would favor a "closer by committee" approach that is more situationally based.

Trevor May looked great last night, but to everyone who wants to make him our new closer based on one (admittedly impressive) inning of work with a 4-run lead: his ERA this season (4.74) is about the same as Rogers, his FIP (3.98) is much worse, his average exit velocity allowed (91.8 mph) is about 3 mph higher than Rogers, and his HR/9 (2.37) is more than twice as high as Rogers. May's K/9 is enough to make any Twins fan salivate, but he's given up a homer in 3 of his last 7 appearances. I know his HR/FB rate is unsustainably high, but I'd like him to show that he can get that under control before he is moved up in the bullpen pecking order. A closer who gives up a bunch of home runs is a recipe for disaster. I'm guessing the very reason they went to May instead of Rogers last night is because of the 4-run cushion.

Odorizzi can't catch a break this season. He was looking pretty damn good tonight! If he can make another effective start or two this season and stay healthy, I think he should make the postseason roster as a long reliever, for whatever that's worth. I also think the Twins should try to bring him back next season on a reasonable contract, since I doubt he's going to command much on the open market at this point.

I mean, they largely have delivered this season, haven't they? I think they're top 5 in the AL in innings pitched, ERA, and WAR, and that's not even counting the openers in the many bullpen games, which mostly went well...

The Dobber is down! I didn't see that coming, but considering Odo is back and Dobnak is the only starter with options left, not to mention his recent performance, it makes sense. I was hoping they'd keep Blankenhorn up and option Astudillo instead, but I'm guessing they're still wary of Avila's back and want another guy on the roster who can (sorta) catch.

I think the Twins wanted to keep Rowson around, and I believe they would've promoted him to bench coach had Shelton been hired away by the Pirates before Rowson was hired away by the Marlins. I don't think there would be any way to get him back at this point short of offering him the manager position. Personally, I would be very hesitant about making any personnel decisions based solely on the results this short, bastardized season.

This is simply not true. The run being scored has a lot to do with the batter, but the baserunner(s) and the defense play a big role in the outcome as well. As someone else argued above, you're gonna have a much easier time collecting an RBI on a groundout when Byron Buxton is on third base as opposed to Nelson Cruz.

I believe the bubbles are only for the Division Series and beyond, but the first round is still played at the higher seed's ballpark.

This is a completely different, much diminished bullpen without Rogers anchoring it. I know a lot of people have been convinced that he sucks now for some reason because of a 17 inning sample, but he's been way too dominant over the past two seasons for me to just write him off. I know that they can only keep going to him for so long while he's pitching like he is this season, but they need to keep putting him out there over the next couple of weeks to see if they can get him right before the playoffs.

The key series are coming in about two weeks. The Twins are in a very good position to secure home field advantage, and they should be using every game from now until the playoffs to get as many players right as possible.

I don't think it's necessarily bad to consider RBI as an important piece of offensive contribution, it's just that RBIs are dependent on a lot of factors and provide an incomplete picture of a player's offensive skill. There are a lot of other stats that tell a more complete story of a hitter's contribution and are more predictive of future success. But RBIs are still an important part of the story, as was painfully illustrated tonight.