Nash Walker

Can we predict how the division race will go?Projection systems are not perfect. Every year, teams that are projected for massive win totals disappoint, and other teams, like the 2019 Twins, vastly outperform expectations. Using PECOTA win projections, where is the schedule heavier and lighter for the Twins in 2021? APRIL - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 77 The Twins begin the season with a three-game series in Milwaukee against a Brewers club projected to win 90 games. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are more-than-capable righties and Christian Yelich is always a matchup problem. The Crew presents the toughest challenge for the Twins in April. The Twins then have 10 straight and seven at home against teams projected to win less than 80 games in the Tigers (65), Mariners (71) and Red Sox (79). The California road trip follows with three a piece in Anaheim and Oakland. Mike Trout’s Angels are projected for 86 wins and Matt Chapman’s A’s sit around 82. The Twins enjoy a day off before welcoming the bottom-feeding Pirates (62) to Target Field. Eddie Rosario will play his old club at the end of the month when the Twins head to Cleveland (85) for three. The Twins start a three-game series with Kansas City (71) to close April. MAY - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 74 There should be very little resistance for the first week-plus in May. The Twins face the Royals for two and the Rangers (67) for three at home. The Tigers (65) await in Detroit for three following the homestand. The stingiest part of the month starts May 11 in Chicago against the White Sox (82). The Twins will return home to face the A’s for three and White Sox again for three after the Windy City visit. Cleveland will host the Twins the weekend of May 21. If they can survive that tricky stretch, the Twins could dazzle a league-leading record after May. The Orioles (65) come to town for a three-game series followed by Kansas City. To finish, the Twins head to Camden Yards to face Baltimore again. Light work. JUNE - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 80 As the weather heats up, so does the Twins’ schedule, but not immediately. They’ll finish the season series with Baltimore and then head to Kansas City to begin the summer. The Bronx Bombers make their annual trip to Target Field after an off-day. Good news for Twins fans: Didi Gregorius won’t be with the Yankees (99). Minnesota will have a chance to actually show up to play when the Astros (92) visit the weekend of June 11. Then comes six faint road games: three in Seattle and three more in Texas. Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds (79) head to Minneapolis for a two-game series starting June 21. The Twins finish the month with three versus Cleveland and three on the road against the White Sox. The Twins host 10 of the 13 games against projected winning teams. JULY - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 75 Minnesota is gifted four home games with the Tigers before the All-Star break, and then head to Detroit after for three more. 10 of the Twins’ 26 games in July are against the Royals or Tigers. The Twins have a challenging seven game stretch starting the 19th with three in Chicago against the Sox and four at home against the Angels. After that: three more against the Tigers. The Twins close the month in St.Louis against a Cardinals team projected for 80 wins. This month is more difficult than PECOTA lets on. The White Sox and Cardinals should both exceed conservative projections. AUGUST - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 87 Similar to 2019, August is by far the Twins’ most demanding month of the season. The three-city road trip runs through St.Louis, Cincy and Houston for four. Then comes a nine game homestand against the White Sox, the AL defending champion Rays and Cleveland. The Yankees await in New York for four games following that taxing homestand. The Red Sox shouldn’t be very hard to beat but Fenway is always an awkward task. The Twins head there from Yankee Stadium for three. Yelich reintroduces himself August 27-29, this time at Target Field. After three months with projected opponent wins under 80, this stretch may allow Chicago to make some ground. However, the White Sox have a difficult month too with 17 straight games against the Twins, Yankees, A’s, Rays and Blue Jays. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 80 Anthony Rizzo’s Cubs stop by to start the homestretch of the season. The Twins then hit the road for seven, three in Tampa and four in Cleveland. Minnesota has five off-days in September, the most of any month this season (including the All-Star break). The entirety of the season series with the Blue Jays (84) is in September with three in Toronto and four at home. The Jays added George Springer and Marcus Semien to an already-strong core. The Twins will have to work for those wins at a critical point. Perfectly, the Twins will have the benefit of playing a bottom-feeder for the final two series’ of the season. Detroit will make the final trip to Target Field for three before the Twins close the season in Kansas City. For reference, here’s the month-by-month average opponent win projections for the White Sox: APRIL - 77 MAY - 81 JUNE - 78 JULY - 81 AUGUST - 84 SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER - 75 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Alex Kirilloff’s pure left-handed swing is exactly what the Twins’ right-handed heavy lineup ordered. His demeanor will fit right in, too.The most pertinent story for the Twins in Fort Myers is the looming decision on Kirilloff. Will he start with the team on opening day in Milwaukee? Will he join them a few weeks later? No matter the call, he’ll be an instrumental part of this lineup for at least the next six seasons. THE PLAYER Kirilloff’s incredibly smooth stroke allowed him to hit a massive .317/.365/.498 in 279 minor league games. His 2018 season was historically good, furthering the belief that he’ll be a special player at the highest level. The 23-year-old is a middle-of-the-order mix of contact and power. He’s an immediate infusion of offensive prowess. He showed the Twins Thursday just how ready he is, with an absolute nuke shot to center field off one of the better left-handers in baseball, Eduardo Rodríguez. Kirilloff led the minors with 296 total bases in 2018. He accumulated 71 extra-base hits in 130 games. He struck out just 15% of the time with a comparably small 7% walk rate. For Twins fans who’ve clamored for more players to put the ball in play, Kirilloff is part of your solution. He’s not a typical patient power hitter. He’s a grip-and-rip maestro with the bat. He ropes line drives into gaps and projects as a high-average weapon. His power numbers will ultimately determine whether he’s an above-average regular or a perennial All-Star, but AK is ready to contribute now with oodles of hits. THE PERSON In his two years as manager, Rocco Baldelli has preached the steady hand. He never gets too high or low, prioritizing a flatline through the six month, 162 game grind. Baldelli’s mantra was tested when games meant 2.7 times more in 2020. The Twins felt increased heat during a six game losing streak in August. Baldelli anchored the group under the same idea: one day at a time. The Twins have built a team and staff that can survive and thrive through adversity over 162 games. Baldelli will continue to rest his players, to keep a loose clubhouse, and focus on one day at a time. One would be hard-pressed to find a more calming presence than Kirilloff. He speaks with a soft tone, rarely inflects his voice and exudes an insane amount of poise. Called up as the first player to make their MLB debut in the postseason, Kirilloff couldn’t have been more cool and collected. He had a nice game, serenly ripping a single to right and making a smooth diving catch in right field. The AK era is here and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The Twins need to remain steady this summer with an 18-game postseason losing streak hanging above them. You gotta make October to win in October. Kirilloff is going to help with that in many varying but equally valuable ways. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

With spring training in full swing, who are the favorites in the A.L.?15. Baltimore Orioles BetOnline O/U - 63.5 wins The Orioles are brutal and play in a deeper division than the Tigers, but I’m a bit surprised they’re dead last. Switch-hitter Anthony Santander has a 111 OPS+ and 31 home runs over his last 130 games. Left-hander John Means owns a 3.81 ERA since 2019. They at least have a couple nice pieces… I think? 14. Detroit Tigers BetOnline O/U - 67.5 wins The Tigers are somewhat thinking about getting better, hiring A.J. Hinch to manage a pretty thin roster. The big three pitching prospects, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning, will themselves determine how quickly Detroit emerges from the armpit of the division. Mize struggled mightily in his debut while Skubal posted a 5.63 ERA. 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson is an awesome college bat, projected to mash in the middle of Detroit’s lineup for years to come. After him, It’s anyone’s guess who else is part of the core. Outfielder Riley Greene, MLB Pipeline’s No. 25 prospect, is certainly a candidate. 13. Texas Rangers BetOnline O/U - 67.5 wins The Rangers have made clear mistakes over the last calendar year. First off, Lance Lynn should’ve been dealt at the 2020 deadline (maybe even the 2019 deadline). Mike Minor, after an excellent first half in 2019, would’ve been a wise move in a seller’s market. They instead stood pat and received far less for both starters in the long run. They’ll at least be able to provide Joey Gallo with a right-handed counterpart in Khris Davis this year, whom they received for Elvis Andrus. The return for Lynn, right-hander Dane Dunning, may be the opening day starter after a brutal 2020 from Kyle Gibson (5.35 ERA). 12. Seattle Mariners BetOnline O/U - 71.5 Kyle Lewis dazzled on his way to 2020 Rookie of the Year, cementing himself into the Mariners’ future plans. Jarred Kelenic, MLB Pipeline’s No. 4 prospect, is knocking on the door in the outfield as well. Left-hander Marco Gonzales is highly effective and could be a valuable trade piece to further build the farm system. The Mariners are still a ways away from moving into the single-digits in the A.L. You can see the light at the end of the tunnel and they may be more fun to watch than a handful of teams that project to win more games this year. 11. Kansas City Royals BetOnline O/U - 72.5 wins The Royals added Carlos Santana and Mike Minor on two-year deals early in the offseason. One could argue they should’ve waited to spend their available payroll. There were better options than Minor available on one-year deals. Santana is a solid player and should help them, but first base is an easy place to add. I don’t think the winter for Kansas City was as “underrated” as most say. At the same time, there’s something to like here. Hunter Dozier is quietly a good hitter while Whit Merrifield is clearly a really good player. Brad Keller has a 3.50 ERA in since 2018 and headlines the rotation with young right-hander Brady Singer. They have some other pitchers, like 2020 first round pick Asa Lacy, who could factor in soon. Josh Staumont is also a beast in the bullpen (when he throws strikes). 10. Boston Red Sox BetOnline O/U - 80.5 wins 2020 was beyond ugly for the Red Sox. They couldn’t pitch. They couldn’t really hit. They finished dead last in the A.L. East. No one expects them to be that bad in 2021 but there are still considerable weaknesses on the team. Eduardo Rodríguez is returning after a brutal bout with COVID-19 and should help the rotation. After him, though, Nathan Eovaldi (4.44 ERA since 2018) and former Twin Martín Pérez are the best options with Chris Sale on the Tommy John shelf. J.D. Martinez was one of many star hitters to struggle through the truncated season. There’s a nice little L-R-L-R formulation with Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Martinez in the heart of the order. The offense will be better. The pitching staff is a glaring problem. 9. Cleveland BetOnline O/U - 81.5 It’s hard to trade Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber within 18 months and still be considered a threat. Cleveland is, though, because of their special ability to develop productive, and sometimes ace-caliber starters. Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac are a nice 1-2 with Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie threatening a similar status. The bullpen lost Brad Hand but retained James Karinchak and will introduce Emmanuel Clase, a triple-digits flamethrower who came over in the Kluber trade. The offense will need to be carried by the excellent José Ramírez and former buddy Eddie Rosario. There’s some upside with Franmil Reyes, too. I don’t hate what they have here and certainly don’t believe the Royals are better. 8. Los Angeles Angels BetOnline O/U - 82.5 wins New year, same story for the Angels. They clearly didn’t do enough to supplement the A.L.’s second worst rotation from 2020. They didn’t sign Trevor Bauer or James Paxton. Or Taijuan Walker. They traded for Alex Cobb, who owns a 5.10 ERA since 2018. They also signed José Quintana, another backend starter. There’s some hope for the Angels in a weaker A.L. West, however. No other team in baseball can brag the duo of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Shohei Ohtani is back throwing 100 mph and they have a special top prospect in outfielder Jo Adell. They also grabbed Raisel Iglesias to shore up the bullpen. I want to believe. I really do. They should trade for Luis Castillo. 7. Tampa Bay Rays BetOnline O/U - 85.5 wins The defending American League champs are given the seventh highest win total heading into 2021. They lost Charlie Morton to free agency and dealt Blake Snell to San Diego, casting major doubt in the rotation beyond Tyler Glasnow, who’s never thrown more than 112 innings in a season. Tampa signed Chris Archer and Rich Hill to supplement and should rarely be questioned, often turning no-namers into Cy Young winners. The bullpen’s clock-of-death will dice up plenty. Randy Arozarena, in Rays fashion, emerged from nowhere to put together a truly miraculous postseason. He’ll man the middle of the order with Brandon Lowe. That’s a solid right-left punch with baseball’s top prospect Wander Franco close to contributing. I could see either the Rays or Jays pushing New York and am very curious to see which club performs better over 162 games. 6. Oakland Athletics BetOnline O/U - 86.5 wins The A’s lost more talent than any team this offseason. Liam Hendriks departed for the South Side, Marcus Semien signed with Toronto, and Tommy La Stella went to the neighboring Giants. It’s all part of the often-dizzying process for Oakland. Matt Olson is a prolific left-handed power bat and a perfect compliment to defensive-whiz Matt Chapman. In center, Ramón Laureano holds a career .818 OPS. They shored up the bullpen by re-signing Yusmeiro Petit and bringing in old friend Sergio Romo. They’ll relieve for hard-throwing lefty Jesús Luzardo and 2020 standout Chris Bassitt. The A’s will still be strong, always finding a way to win. The question is whether they can lose all of those pieces and still take the division from a healthier and better Astros lineup. 5. Houston Astros BetOnline O/U - 87.5 wins The Astros were dealt a blow this week when promising left-hander Framber Valdéz was told he may need surgery on his fractured finger, which could end his 2021 season. Without Justin Verlander, the Astros were already facing rotation uncertainty. José Altuve followed up an abysmal regular season with a great postseason stretch. Alex Bregman might be the best third baseman in baseball. Carlos Correa is eyeing a contract year. Plus, 2019 A.L. Rookie of the Year Yordan Álvarez is returning from a knee injury. This lineup is stacked and will win them a lot of games in a weaker division. 4. Toronto Blue Jays BetOnline O/U - 87.5 wins The Blue Jays signed George Springer and swooped in for Marcus Semien in an impressively aggressive winter. That lineup will bang. Former phenom prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looks great and now has 183 MLB games under his belt. Bo Bichette is an electric factory and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is quietly a really good hitter. Hyun-Jin Ryu finished third behind Bieber and Kenta Maeda for A.L. Cy Young award last year and sports a 2.30 ERA since 2018. After that, plenty of questions reside in the rotation. Nate Pearson struggled with command in his 2020 debut. Tanner Roark is coming off a 6.80 ERA and Robbie Ray still can’t throw strikes. This team could use Jake Odorizzi. 3. Minnesota Twins BetOnline O/U - 88.5 wins The Twins aren’t as sexy as the two teams above them. They are a veteran, well-oiled group with enviable depth in both (socially-distanced) Fort Myers clubhouses. PECOTA is very confident that the Twins will both win the division and boast a lot of wins. Maeda is a large reason for that. The Twins also have a higher floor than most with six or seven reliable starters and a career .331/.390/.429 hitter (Luis Arraez) on the bench as the 10th man. The problems for Minnesota are at the top half, with their two best position players (Josh Donaldson & Byron Buxton) carrying riddled injury histories into 2021. If the White Sox hit their stride, the Twins will need to stay healthy and/or get better-than-expected performances from above average players like Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. The ceiling is a bit concerning, but a few bounce-backs and better health will easily cement the Twins into the playoff picture. 2. Chicago White Sox BetOnline O/U - 90.5 wins The White Sox are the betting favorite to win the A.L. Central. Sporting a group that has finally grown into its own, the Sox would love to steal the division from the Twins. Many impartial fans and analysts are cheering for the Sox as America’s team in the A.L. There’s plenty of star potential in the lineup with Luis Robert, Eloy Jiménez and Tim Anderson, who said the Sox are “way more athletic” than their rival Twins and that the Sox are the best team in the American League. Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dallas Keuchel are an impressive trio among others at the top of the roster. The questions lie in the backhalf. Dylan Cease, projected as the fourth starter, owns a career 5.00 ERA with a walk rate at 12%. Carlos Rodón (5.74 ERA since 2019) and Reynaldo López (5.52 ERA since 2019) will hold down the 5th spot in tandem. Liam Hendriks, Aaron Bummer, Garrett Crochet and Codi Heuer will all be pumping upper-90s out of what should be a strong bullpen. 1. New York Yankees BetOnline O/U - 95.5 wins GM Brian Cashman struck gold in 2019 when he signed DJ LeMahieu to a two-year, $24 million deal. LeMahieu has finished fourth and third for A.L. MVP while hitting .336/.386/.536 in 195 games. It was quite inevitable and a no-brainer to re-sign him this offseason. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres make up the best right-handed quartet in baseball. The rotation is headlined by $324 million dollar man Gerrit Cole and a handful of high upside righties coming off injuries. If Corey Kluber returns to form while Jameson Taillon contributes, they’ll be a top unit. The bullpen is led by the great Zack Britton, who owns a 1.90 ERA over the last two seasons. Aroldis Chapman is still elite and Chad Green can be un-hittable. Health is always a problem with the prodigious sluggers Judge and Stanton, who reportedly participated in more yoga this offseason than hardcore pumping. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

HERE YEEEE!

HERE YEEEE!

The Twins have valued a long-relief option out of the bullpen. Dobnak fills that perfectly in my eyes.

The St. Paul Saints are gearing up for their first season as the Triple-A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins. Who will we see across the river?STARTING ROTATION LHP LEWIS THORPE Thorpe is turning heads early at camp, pumping 92-93 with his fastball after his velocity alarmingly dropped in 2020. The Twins would benefit greatly from a league-average or better performance from Thorpe in 2021. With another option in tow, it’s likely he’ll need to impress further in St.Paul to start the season before re-joining the Twins. RHP BAILEY OBER The 6-foot-9 Ober has dominated at every minor league level. The Twins added him to their 40-man roster this offseason, showing belief in his unique skillset. Ober’s stuff isn’t on the level of fellow giant Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays, but he has excellent command and his long right arm creates latitudinal diception for hitters. LHP DEVIN SMELTZER There’s a fair chance Smeltzer cracks the Twins’ opening day roster. It’s likely the team will favor 14 pitchers over 13 position players, which could open the door for the Alka Smeltz. The addition of Matt Shoemaker viably pushed Smeltzer, who owns a 4.57 ERA in 18 career MLB games, to Lowertown. RHP GLENN SPARKMAN Sparkman, released by the Royals in November, is a non-roster invite to Fort Myers. The 28-year-old has pitched to a 6.00 ERA over his last 141 major-league innings but owns a 3.53 ERA in 81 2/3 career innings at Triple-A. He upped his slider usage in a limited 2020 sample and averaged 93 MPH with his four-seamer. RHP GRIFFIN JAX Jax pitched to a 2.69 ERA over his first 18 starts for Double-A Pensacola in 2019. The Twins bumped him to Rochester for a couple weeks before sending him back for the Southern League playoffs. He started two postseason games for the Blue Wahoos, holding his opponents to a .171/.205/.195 slash line in 11 innings. Keep an eye on him. BULLPEN RHP EDWAR COLINA Colina’s debut with the Twins went as poorly as possible and he’s currently sporting an 81.00 career ERA. He’ll be an asset out of the bullpen soon for Minnesota, however. He just needs some more experience and tweaking. As a former starter, he could pitch in a hybrid role to endure more innings. Colina has an electric triple-digit fastball and a killer slider. RHP IAN GIBAUT Gibaut was outrighted and successfully passed through waivers, ultimately assuring he’ll pitch for the Saints. Spotty control of huge stuff has duped the 27-year-old throughout his career. He’s posted great strikeout rates, even in the majors, but needs to hone in his command in order to join the defending A.L. Central champions. RHP DEREK LAW Law might be the most interesting minor-league signing for the Twins. The right-hander was tremendous in 2016 for the Giants, posting a 2.13 ERA and 19.2% strikeout-to-walk rate in 55 innings. Law has since scuffled with command issues and overall ineffectiveness. Law throws in the mid-90s and drew a 42% whiff rate on his slider in 2019. RHP TOM HACKIMER Hackimer, 26, has posted huge strikeout rates in the minors as a side-winding righty. He struck out 31% of batters faced across High-A and Double-A in 2019. He combined for a 2.54 ERA in 36 appearances out of the bullpen. His walk rate was an alarming 11% but he’s flashed swing-and-miss stuff. RHP JUAN MINAYA Minaya, much like the right-handers above him, has battled with his command. He throws a tremendous changeup and enjoyed above-average numbers for much of his four seasons out of the White Sox bullpen. He’s a good depth piece for the Saints (and Twins). LHP DANNY COULOMBE Coulombe has big league experience, appearing in 155 games over six seasons. He throws a high-spin curveball much like Caleb Thielbar. The Twins could look to Coulombe if Thielbar or Taylor Rogers is hurt or struggling. LHP BRANDON WADDELL Waddell didn’t survive the late surge of Twins signings and was dropped off the 40-man to make room for fellow waiver claim Kyle Garlick. He passed through and was outrighted to the minors. Waddell revealed productivity with a 2.23 ERA and 29% strikeout rate in 2019 at Double-A Altoona. More left-handed depth for the club. RHP IAN HAMILTON Hamilton has been plagued by bad luck and setbacks. He possessed a high-90s fastball and low-90s slider not that long ago but suffered facial fractures after taking a line drive in 2019. He has high upside, maybe more than anyone on this projected roster. INFIELDERS SS/2B/OF TZU-WEI LIN Lin, a super-utility Swiss Army knife, destroyed at Triple-A in the Red Sox system in 2018. He hit .307/.362/.448 with 20 doubles and five home runs in 68 games. Now 27, Lin has 101 games of big league experience, hitting a paltry .223/.298/.316 for Boston in short stints over four seasons. Maybe a change of scenery will help him flourish offensively. 2B/SS NICK GORDON Gordon had a brutally long fight with COVID-19 last summer, knocking him out for a majority of alternate-site activities. He’s now entering the most crucial year of his career. Will he finally force his way to Minnesota? SS/3B/2B DREW MAGGI Maggi, 31, sported an impressive .384 on-base percentage for Rochester in 2019. He also hit 10 homers and 19 doubles in 108 games. Maggi is going into his 11th minor-league season and is a very solid asset for the Saints. 1B/LF ZANDER WIEL Wiel has huge power, evidenced by his 69 extra-base hits and .514 slugging percentage at Triple-A in 2019. He’ll be a middle of the order bat for the Saints and needs to clean up his plate discipline in order to join the Twins. SS/3B/OF JT RIDDLE Riddle has 787 MLB plate appearances with little success. His OPS is 33% below league average since 2017. He’s a versatile, strong defender with the ability to play at multiple key positions. He could be a valuable piece for the Saints. C TOMÁS TELIS Telis, 29, was a star for the Red Wings at Triple A in 2019. He hit .330/.364/.490 in 82 games. He’s played in nearly 1,000 minor league games with impressive offensive numbers overall. Hitting just .230/.267/.298 in 122 MLB games has limited his opportunities to show more. If Mitch Garver or Ryan Jeffers go down, Telis could be a more attractive option than Willians Astudillo to fill the void for the Twins. 2B/3B TRAVIS BLANKENHORN Blankenhorn projected to make the Twins’ opening day roster until they signed Andrelton Simmons. A big left-handed bat, Blankenhorn figures to man one of the top spots in St.Paul’s lineup. He owns a solid .756 OPS in five minor-league seasons. C CALEB HAMILTON Of the seven catchers in Fort Myers, Hamilton is one of the four or five with experience above Double-A. This puts the 26-year-old on track to start the season in St.Paul, backing up Telis. Hamilton is a lighter-hitting right-handed catcher but adds nice depth to the system. IF/OF ROB REFSNYDER Refsnyder was an interesting organizational pickup this winter. In 427 career games at Triple-A, Refsnyder has hit .296/.372/.436 with 100 doubles, 35 home runs and eight triples. Refsnyder is a bit of a tweener but his minor-league numbers pop. OUTFIELDERS KYLE GARLICK Garlick, 29, has shown signs of harnessing a prolific bat. He’s hit .288/.345/.536 with 91 home runs in 464 minor league games. Garlick posted a 1.072 OPS against Triple-A lefties in 2019. He’ll compete with Brent Rooker as a right-handed option off the bench for the Twins. ALEX KIRILLOFF Kirilloff’s journey will likely begin in St.Paul, although recent reports have shed light on the possibility of the Twins nixing service time manipulation to bring him up on opening day. Kirilloff, a .317/.365/.498 hitter in the minors, will be must-watch at either level. KEON BROXTON Broxton played a decent center field and accumulated 2.5 bWAR in 2016-17 for the Brewers. His lack of contact skills came back to bite him over the next two seasons. He hit just .170 and settled for an NRI with the Twins. He has some pop and great speed and should be the starting center fielder for St.Paul. PROJECTED LINEUP VS. RHP: DREW MAGGI, 2B - RALEX KIRILLOFF, RF - LKYLE GARLICK, LF - RTRAVIS BLANKENHORN, 3B - LZANDER WIEL, 1B - RTOMÁS TELIS, C - SROB REFSNYDER, DH - RTZU-WEI LIN, SS - LKEON BROXTON, CF - RSP LEWIS THORPE (L) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY— Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Seattle Mariners president Kevin Mather stepped down Monday after backlash from a bizarre interview. Meanwhile, the Twins are preparing for their first full-squad workout Tuesday.MARINERS PRESIDENT RESIGNS In a wildly candid and revealing interview with the rotary club, Mariners president Kevin Mather opened up about specific extension talks, manipulating service time, and his feelings about foreign players’ language. Mather’s outlandish comments were met with disdain from numerous prominent players and media members. Mather resigned from his position Monday and the team’s chairman and managing partner released the following statement: Mather, in the video that has since been deleted, explicitly detailed the team’s intentions in manipulating service time clocks for their prospects. "There was no chance you were going to see these young players at T-Mobile Park [in 2021]”, he said, “We weren’t going to put them on the 40-man roster. We weren’t going to start the service time clock. You might’ve seen my big tummy out there in left field. You would not have seen our young players, our prospects, playing at T-Mobile Park.” Mather also criticized former Mariners All-Star pitcher Hishahi Iwakuma for having to pay his Japanese interpreter. “I’m tired of paying his interpreter. When he was a player, we’d pay Iwaukuma ‘X’ but we also had to pay $75,000 a year to have an interpreter with him,” he said, “his English suddenly got better when we told him that.” The Major League Baseball Player’s Association released the following statement: Twins third baseman Josh Donaldson wrote on the matter: Jomboy also broke down the highly questionable and insulting comments from Mather here: TWINS APPLY TO HOST 10,000 FANS AT THE HOME OPENER Per a report from the Star Tribune, the Twins are looking to welcome back fans for their home opener on April 8. According to the report, the Twins have submitted a plan to the state to safely welcome back fans at 25% capacity, or about 10,000, to start the 2021 campaign. The team is hoping to hear back at least a month before the opener, says Darren Wolfson of KSTP: TWINS LOOK FORWARD TO FIRST TEAM WORKOUT TUESDAY The Twins continue to trickle into Fort Myers ahead of the inaugural practice on Tuesday. Among those position players reported to camp: Max Kepler, Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez, Jake Cave, Brent Rooker, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff and many more. The club will open their Grapefruit League schedule Sunday with a home game against the Boston Red Sox. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. CT. The Twins have not yet released their plans for broadcasting Spring Training games. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Who could push their way into a job or up prospect lists?OF KYLE GARLICK The Twins elected to outright RHP Ian Gibaut rather than Garlick when the Matt Shoemaker signing became official Friday. The move was inconsequential as Gibaut passed through waivers unclaimed. Still, this may show the team’s belief in Garlick as a depth option in the outfield. Garlick, 29, has shown signs of harnessing a prolific bat. He’s hit .288/.345/.536 with 91 home runs in 464 minor league games. Garlick posted a 1.072 OPS against Triple-A lefties in 2019. He’ll compete with Brent Rooker as a right-handed option off the bench. A productive spring could vault Garlick onto the opening day roster. RHP DAKOTA CHALMERS Chalmers’ stuff alone made the Fernando Rodney trade in 2018 a success for the Twins. He runs his fastball up to 98 with an extremely high-spin curveball to boot. Chalmers has the arsenal to electrify hitters out of the bullpen. The 24-year-old has had major command issues, walking over 16% of batters in five minor-league seasons. His electricity is evidenced by a 27% strikeout rate and an ERA under 4.00. The upside is there. Can the Twins tweak him to throw more strikes? 1B AARON SABATO Sabato, 21, was drafted in June as an already-developed bat. Sabato dismantled the ACC for North Carolina, hitting .332 with a 1.158 OPS in 83 games. In a recent interview, Sabato suggests the questions about his position are overblown. He says he’ll have more flexibility than a DH-only bat. If he continues to crush in the spring and through the first half of 2021, it’s not out of the realm for Sabato to be considered for a call-up later this year. He is an advanced right-handed slugger with a spotless track record at the plate. RHP MATT CANTERINO The hype train on Canterino has left the station. The Twins’ second round pick in 2019 was seen as a polished-type at Rice University. He had good command of four pitches but nothing seen as plus-plus on its own. That seems to have changed. Canterino pumped 99 with his fastball just weeks ago, per this video from Darren Wolfson: I am very intrigued to see Canterino this spring. Twins Daily recently ranked him as the Twins’ 9th best prospect. He could move up even more with a strong showing in the Fort. RHP JOSH WINDER Winder, 24, is listed at 6-foot-5 and has already succeeded in the minors. He posted a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts for Cedar Rapids in 2019 with a miniscule 6% walk rate. Much like Canterino, Winder apparently added considerable velocity this offseason, flashing a fastball “up to 97,” according to Keith Law. Already good command + increased fastball velocity = exciting stuff, despite Winder’s lack of experience above Low-A. RHP IAN HAMILTON The Twins snuck Hamilton through waivers and now boast increased bullpen depth. Hamilton has been plagued by bad luck and setbacks. He possessed a high-90s fastball and low-90s slider not that long ago but suffered facial fractures after taking a line drive in 2019. His velocity was understandably down in light 2020 work for the Phillies. If the Twins can unlock or simply oversee him regain form over the next month, he’ll be in the conversation to hold the eighth bullpen spot on opening day. He’s still only 25. C TOMÁS TELIS The Twins have enviable catching depth with a duo of Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers. As Mike Tyson said though, everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face. If Garver or Jeffers go down, Telis could be a more attractive option than Willians Astudillo to fill the void. Telis, 29, was a star for the Red Wings at Triple A in 2019. He hit .330/.364/.490 in 82 games. He’s played in nearly 1,000 minor league games with impressive offensive numbers overall. Hitting just .230/.267/.298 in 122 MLB games has limited his opportunities to show more. Keep an eye on the Saints’ catcher. RHP GLENN SPARKMAN Sparkman contributed to a horrendous season for Kansas City in 2019. He posted a 6.02 ERA and 5.92 FIP in 136 innings. The Twins hit five home runs and scored 19 times in 25 ⅔ innings against him. A forearm strain limited the 28-year-old to just five innings in 2020, forcing him to settle for a minor-league deal with the Twins. Sparkman threw his fastball too much in 2019 and generates decent spin on his slider. Guys like him end up mattering over 162 games. A strong ramp-up could move him up the organizational depth chart. RHP JHOAN DURAN Duran, recently ranked by the site as the Twins’ 5th best prospect, needs to be watched closely over the next few weeks. If he continues to show progression in his curveball and command, there’s a chance he could be in Minneapolis before schools are out for the summer. 23 years old with a monster fastball and disgusting “splinker,” Duran is extremely close to making a huge impact. I am very high on his arm and potential as a frontline starter. I do think he could thrive in a multi-inning bullpen role in 2021, though. OF TREVOR LARNACH Not that he necessarily qualifies as “under the radar,” but Larnach still finds himself multiple names back in the outfield. He’ll have to hit throughout the spring and early summer, much like 2019, to force the Twins’ hand. Larnach is a clear top-100 global prospect with huge power potential and a strong resume. Just last year, many wondered if he was on track to pass Alex Kirilloff as the organization’s best outfield prospect. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

#Break18

A 22-year-old superstar signed a monstrous contract today as spring training commenced for a handful of teams.TATÍS SIGNS HISTORIC EXTENSION San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatís Jr., once a Chicago White Sox prospect, is one of baseball’s most electric stars. He’s played in only 143 big-league games, hitting .301/.374/.582 with 39 home runs, 24 doubles and eight triples. He’s been coined by many as the newest face of Major League Baseball. Tatís was set to make the league minimum in 2021. That’s not happening. Reports emerged tonight that Tatís has agreed to a 14-year, $340 million extension with San Diego. The deal is set to break multiple records. It’s the largest guaranteed contract to a pre-arbitration eligible player, per FanSided’s Robert Murray. It’s also the third largest extension in MLB history, edged out by only Mookie Betts ($365M) and Mike Trout ($360M). The Padres are the first team in major league history to sign two players to $300-plus million contracts. San Diego’s current infield of Tatís, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Ha-Seong Kim have signed contracts for nearly a billion dollars ($812 million). Twins fans can rejoice that the White Sox traded Tatís for a 34-year-old James Shields in 2016. Shields went on to post a 5.31 ERA in 76 starts for Chicago. A SPECIAL DAY Hope springs eternal. The spring brings hope. Hundreds of players flocked to their respective camps today as preparation for the 2021 begins. Fans clamored for videos of their favorite pitchers and catchers long-tossing in the Florida & Arizona sunshine. The Twins are set to report later this week but perhaps without Tyler Duffey and Andrew Albers, at least initially: HOPE FOR FANS AT TARGET FIELD? The Twins have teamed up with 3M, who is now the team's "official science partner," per a team-issued press release. The goal is for 3M to help the Twins in welcoming fans back to Target Field. FANGRAPHS INTERVIEWS SABATO ... David Laurila of FanGraphs interviewed Twins prospect Aaron Sabato, who ranked #8 on Twins Daily's prospect list. The 2020 first-round pick grew up playing middle infield and insists that he has more athleticism and will provide more defensive value than most are projecting. "Obviously, I’m not going back to the middle of the infield, but whether it’s third or first — I know it’ll most likely be first — I can play a corner," Sabato said. "I think I proved to the coaches, and the staff, down in instructs that they didn’t draft a DH. They drafted a guy who could field, maybe an at elite level." That was just one of the interesting anecdotes from the interview, which is well worth your time. ... AND RANKS SIX TWINS IN TOP 100 PROSPECTS Eric Longenhagen unveiled FanGraphs' top 100 prospects for 2021. Six Twins were included on the list and one just missed. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Using PECOTA projections, who has the ability to impact the Twins most at their peak performance?For this exercise, I looked at the 90th percentile outcomes for the Twins. Baseball Prospectus’ famous PECOTA projections has a tool to see the upside of players. Who, at their 90th percentile of production can make the biggest impact for the Twins? BYRON BUXTON 90th percentile: 127 G, .268/.333/.515 (.848 OPS), 26 HR, 5.18 WARP Buxton’s recent power advances have furthered his upside, which was already enormous. He’s slugged a ridiculous .534 over the last two seasons with 60 extra-base hits in 126 games. He saved more runs defensively than any centerfielder in baseball in 2020, despite playing in only 39 of 60 games. Buxton also led the Twins in bWAR (2.1) and was on pace to be a 7-win player over 130 games. The Twins have had just seven 7-win hitters in team history: Rod Carew (three times), Kirby Puckett (twice), Tony Oliva, Joe Mauer, Zoilo Versalles, Bob Allison and Chuck Knoblauch. No one with less 300 games played since 2017 has more bWAR than Buxton (9.8). He played in 65% of games in 2020, his most since 2017 when he appeared in 140 and finished 18th for A.L. MVP on mostly defense alone. There’s legitimate reason to believe Buxton’s power is here to stay, too: Buxton is in his prime. His health is massively important to the Twins in 2021. He can be the difference between 90 and 100 wins. He can be the difference between a first round exit and a World Series title. He’s *that* much of an elite talent. MIGUEL SANÓ 90th percentile: 144 G, .272/.375/.579 (.954 OPS), 38 HR, 5.05 WARP Even if he regresses some, Nelson Cruz should again be an anchor in 2021. Josh Donaldson will produce when healthy. Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers will be a formidable offensive duo. The real right-handed wild card is Sanó. The lineup could middle or thrive depending on his production. PECOTA confirms what we know: he carries massive upside. This ridiculous .954 OPS is just 31 points lower than Sanó’s OPS in 2019, when he hit 34 homers in just 105 games. Sanó was putting together a really strong 2020 season after a slow start, hitting .248/.347/.552 with 18 extra-base hits in 32 games through Aug. 31. He then went 12-for-81 (.148) to finish the season. He struck out in 46% of his plate appearances and walked just three times. Sanó's highs are very high and his lows can be very low. If he has more peaks than valleys in 2021, the Twins will benefit greatly. MICHAEL PINEDA 24 GS, 131 IP, 2.66 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 1.99 WARP PECOTA is beyond bullish on Kenta Maeda for 2021, projecting his 50th percentile ERA to be worse than *only* Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw. The system likes José Berríos as a top 30 to 35 starter. The Twins hope both those projections are true and that J.A. Happ and Randy Dobnak will eat quality innings on the back end. The ace in the hole could be "Big Mike." Pineda was fantastic in his final 14 starts of 2019. He posted a 2.96 ERA and held opponents to a .650 OPS. He continued that excellence into five September starts in 2020. If he can pitch like that over a full season, the Twins will boast a very good top three for the playoffs. Pineda’s health and production is key to how the rotation holds up in 2021. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stayed patient and tactical in re-signing the team’s beloved kingpin.The Twins made it clear in the aftermath of losing their 18th straight playoff game: they wanted Nelson Cruz back. The legendary slugger has been the heart and soul of the club for the last two seasons. Cruz shared a similar sentiment. It still took 125 days to happen. The lack of communication from MLB regarding the universal DH pushed Cruz to wait longer than expected. The chronicles of Cruz's free agency confirmed our interpretation of the Twins' philosophy, too. Per reports, the Twins made at least three offers to Cruz. He stood his ground, insisting on a multi-year contract. Given how much Cruz has meant to the Twins and the community, fans understandably clamored for the team to meet his demand. The Twins stood staunch in their position of committing just one year, and Dan Hayes reported that they were never going to offer the 40-year-old Cruz a two-year pact. It was a calculated gamble by the front office, one that led to a “staring contest” and anxiety amongst fans for months. Throughout the process, though, the team continued to express their love and admiration for Cruz. It was imperative, while still staying firm with their contractual desires, to relay that Cruz means the world to the franchise. Fishy reports of the White Sox “interest” in Cruz didn’t force the Twins to give in. They instead took advantage of the MLBPA rejecting MLB’s offer that included the universal DH. This was an outcome they likely projected. By surveying the other suitors in the A.L., it was easy to see that Cruz had little in the way of alternatives. Marcell Ozuna, a much younger and safer long-term bet than Cruz, provided the opportunity to gain anchorage. On Tuesday evening, Darren Wolfson reported that the Twins had an offer out to Ozuna and wanted a prompt answer. Hours later, Cruz finalized his deal. Similar to the leak that the Twins were “out of the bidding” for Josh Donaldson, the front office concluded that they held more leverage than the free agent. With an offer on the table just weeks before spring training, the Twins couldn’t afford to wait for their last two major offseason signings. Both tactics worked: Donaldson and Cruz are Twins. The Cruz saga was the culmination of the Falvine era. They value intangibles. They value flexibility. They found neutrality between loyalty and wisdom. They publicly praised Cruz for months while stiff to their desires. They got Cruz on *their* terms. That was the goal. A risky but highly respectable strategy. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Awesome write-up Parker. I think Colomé is my favorite addition, given the cost. Love the White Sox angle and that cutter.

With financial flexibility and a familiar, beloved face still available, the Twins’ offseason is ready for its finishing touches.The Twins didn’t trade for Blake Snell. Or Yu Darvish. Or Joe Musgrove. They didn’t shock the world and sign George Springer. Or DJ LeMahieu. They stayed quiet for months and months, waiting for the market to come to them. Two lower-wattage pitching pickups in Hansel Robles and J.A. Happ provide ample depth, and maybe even some upside, for a combined $10 million. Snatching up Andrelton Simmons to double their free-agent spending also improves the club, perhaps significantly. The Twins will have a different look and feel in 2021. Simmons at short, Jorge Polanco at second and Luis Arraez in the Marwin González role is sure to fascinate. For now though, this team is an unfinished product. The White Sox are widely seen as the team to beat in the A.L. Central in 2021. Huge seasons from Eloy Jiménez and Tim Anderson in 2020 sparked even more excitement around the South Siders. The addition of Lance Lynn to a rotation with Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel is a bit scary. The bullpen, now fronted by former Twin Liam Hendriks, will breath fire. Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski projects a 91-win tie for first, assuming these are the rosters on opening day. But they aren’t. The Twins have, even in a conservative estimate, about $12-15 million left to spend. Coincidence? Not at all. The Twins want their DH back. Cruz wants to be back. It’s a matter of time, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale also tweeted that the White Sox have “little room” to operate financially after signing Liam Hendriks for $54 million. If that’s the case, the Twins will catapault as slight to moderate favorites after the re-addition of Cruz and another bullpen arm. Cruz has little incentive to sign soon with the National League DH rule still in negotiation. He’s working out like a madman at his own home gym, crushing baseballs into nets and breeding his son, Nelson Cruz Jr., to do the same. He’s preparing to see his name in the heart of Baldelli’s lineup for the third straight season. There are cons to bringing him home. While it seems like Cruz will never stop hitting, he will. His bat and or body will slow down. Whether that’s in 2021 or beyond is the key question. If it takes matching a two-year deal, you may see the Twins pivot. It’s unlikely, though, that the 40-year-old Cruz will command that type of commitment, especially without DHs in the National League. With the White Sox out, his list of suitors is incredibly limited in the A.L. The Twins are at a point, with Josh Donaldson in year two of his deal, to maximize the now. The rotation is in fine position, the defense will be nasty (good nasty) and the bullpen has considerable upside. The payroll is set up for one last ride with the great Nelson Cruz. The stars seem to be aligning. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article