Nash Walker

The Twins, especially after declining Sergio Romo’s $5 million club option, will need to fill three or four spots in the bullpen. Is this journeyman reliever a worthwhile signing?Joakim Soria was a dominant closer for the Royals during the first five years of his career. He posted a 2.40 ERA and 2.90 FIP over 315 ⅓ innings for Kansas City. Soria then pitched for six different teams over the next eight seasons, including another two year stint with the Royals. His 3.12 FIP ranked 16th among 73 relievers who threw at least 300 innings in that span. Soria signed a healthy two-year, $15 million contract with the Athletics before the 2019 campaign. He pitched to a 3.94 ERA and 3.46 FIP in 91 ⅓ innings for Oakland. These numbers don’t jump off the page, but his subtle adjustments in 2020 show some hidden upside for the 36-year-old righty. In a move that screams “Minnesota Twins,” Soria upped his slider usage by 70%, similar to the move Homer Bailey made in Oakland with his splitter. Opponents had an expected .234/.254 (wOBA)/.307 line against Soria’s frisbee during the shortened season, whiffing at over a 30% rate. Even with this death-on-righties slider, lefties hit just .130 with a .361 OPS off Soria. His changeup was incredibly effective, but his fastball still has plenty of juice, too. Soria averaged 92.4 mph with his heater and it played up due to the offspeed efficiency. Soria was simply a Statcast darling in 2020. He ranked in the 94th percentile in barrel rate, the 92nd percentile in expected wOBA and expected ERA, and the 85th percentile in expected slugging percentage. He still threw his fastball over 65% of the time, which suggests there’s remaining room to tweak the pitch mix and pull out more value. Soria has the repertoire and profile that reminds one of Matt Wisler from last offseason, albeit with much more success and a higher price tag. How high that price tag will be, though, is the main question. Cleveland just waived Brad Hand, the Twins wouldn’t pay Romo $5 million, and the Braves declined the $3.5 million option on Darren O’Day, a 38-year-old righty who posted a sterling 1.10 ERA in 2020. Soria turns 37 next May and falls into the category of a solid but not great reliever. He does seem like an ideal candidate for the Twins to tweak on a lower-term deal. Worst case scenario is he ends up being the same guy he’s been for the last five years, a 3.20 FIP, 10.2 strikeouts-per-nine middle-to-late leverage righty. That has immense value in itself. What do you think? Should the Twins sign Joakim Soria? Who else would you want to see them sign for the bullpen? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Darius, I appreciate the comment. Polanco was a plus defender (+1 DRS) in 2016 at third base. If you have the arm (or most of the arm) for short, you have the arm for third. If you think Ehire Adrianza is anywhere near the hitter that Polanco is (even when hurt), I can’t help you there. Have a great weekend!

The Twins got creative last winter by signing Josh Donaldson and moving Miguel Sanó to first base. There is another opportunity for innovation this offseason at the shortstop position.It’s very difficult to evaluate and project Jorge Polanco. He hit a solid but not spectacular .272/.329/.420 in 288 games before his breakout 2019 where he exploded for 69 extra-base hits. Polanco started in the All-Star Game because of his terrific first-half production. Since the 2019 break though, Polanco has hit just .267/.325/.407 (95 wRC+) in 535 plate appearances. This line includes a disastrous September in 2020 where he had just a .625 OPS. Polanco had his second ankle surgery in as many years and told Darren Wolfson that it bothered him at the plate much more than he let on. We’re all hopeful he returns to first-half 2019 form in 2021, but his track record shows that he’s more likely to be the career .278/.335/.434 (104 wRC+) hitter than the early-2019 world beater. Those numbers, and especially his career 111 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, would be incredibly valuable in a utility role. Polanco is a switch-hitter who can presumably play third, short, and second and is slated to make only $4.33 million in 2021, about the salary of a utility infielder. Of course the other huge factor is the status of the Twins’ top prospect Royce Lewis. Reports and rumblings have indicated that Lewis isn’t quite ready to join the big league club. The Twins have also shown a propensity to hold players back until a clear role is established. Lewis isn’t there yet. The Twins could just re-sign Ehire Adrianza, who was brutal offensively in 2020, to bridge the gap to Lewis, or they could get creative. Polanco could slide into a platoon-role, primarily facing right-handed pitching while steping aside against lefties. One of the main focuses of this offseason for the Twins should be improvement against left-handers. Polanco has a career 89 wRC+ from the right side of the plate. The free agent market is flush with potential options to share time with Polanco. Marcus Semien should do well considering his outstanding 2019 season. Semien posted 8.9 bWAR in 2019, a complete outlier to the other seven years of his career. He may not demand a long-term pact and owns a career .812 OPS against lefties. Andrelton Simmons, another free agent with injury concerns, could sign a pillow deal in Minnesota and pair up with Josh Donaldson on the left side. Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in the world and has a respectable, given his defense, .730 OPS over the last four seasons. Twins killer Didi Gregorius is a free agent but makes less sense because of his left handedness. On the trade market, Javier Báez is entering his final year before free agency and will make a projected $11 million. The Cubs are eyeing a potential rebuild and will undoubtedly shop their veterans. Báez was abysmal in 2020 but has crushed lefties in his career (125 wRC+). Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor will likely be available but both are unlikely to be dealt to Minnesota. Bogaerts is owed $40 million through an opt-out in 2022, which will complicate the return in trade. Lindor will probably be traded, but not to a division rival. The Twins have a unique opportunity to improve their depth by adding a legitimate starting shortstop for one to two years while the market is down. Polanco could thrive with less pressure and better matchups in the utility role, as well. What do you think about this option? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

“Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average.” The presumption that Kepler wouldn’t bring back significant pieces baffles me.

It’s understandable that some Twins fans are asking for radical changes to be made following yet another postseason failure. Is trading Max Kepler one that carries weight?The case against Kepler signed a 5-year, $35 million extension following his solid but not spectacular 2018 season. The spectacular was fulfilled in 2019. Kepler blasted 36 home runs and 32 doubles while primarily leading off for the Twins, gearing his swing to pull the ball in the air with authority. Kepler received league MVP votes and Twins Daily voted him as the best Twin of 2019. Kepler, like his teammate and friend Byron Buxton, is an incredible athlete. He ranks third among right fielders since 2018 in defensive fWAR (8.4), trailing only Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge. Kepler has a sweet left-handed swing. It’s aesthetically pleasing to watch him belt baseballs to right field. Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average. Kepler is set to make only $21.75 million over the next three years with a $10 million club option for 2024. He’ll turn 32 following that season. The case for For all of the reasons above, Kepler would undoubtedly bring back significant pieces in a trade. He’s a really good outfielder in his prime with a team-friendly contract and four years of team control. The Twins could get back a heap of prospects or perhaps package Kepler to swing a deal for starting pitching (not that they need it as much as they did in 2019). This front office has repeatedly stressed “sustained success.” Is trading Kepler to improve the farm system contributing to sustained success? Or is losing a really good player counterproductive? Of course, the most important factor is the dropoff for 2021. It’s true the Twins are flush with outfielders. Alex Kirilloff looks like he could man right field, Trevor Larnach is knocking at the door for another corner outfield spot, and Brent Rooker looked Major-League adept in his debut season. Jake Cave has an .807 OPS against right-handed pitching in his career, two points higher than Kepler. How much does moving Kepler hinder their ability to compete for another division title in 2021? About that platoon... Perhaps the most impressive part of Kepler’s 2019 was his adjustment against lefties. He had struggled for most of his career in those spots but rebounded to hit .293/.356/.524 against southpaws in 2019. Kepler went just 6-for-47 in those matchups in 2020. As a result, Kepler’s overall batting line regressed to .228/.321/.439. His OPS+ remained above league average at 108. A platoon player is still much less valuable than one who can start every day. Kepler’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate declined during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. As we can ask with most things this year, what does that really mean? What do you think? Should the Twins shop Max Kepler? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Nick Nelson has a future in this.

Unfortunately we’re talking about the offseason much earlier than we would’ve liked. Still, this is another critical winter for the Twins. Let’s take a look.The Nitty Gritty: payroll GUARANTEED CONTRACTS: Josh Donaldson - $21 million Miguel Sanó - $11 million Michael Pineda - $10 million Max Kepler - $6.5 million Jorge Polanco - $4.33 million Kenta Maeda - $3.125 million (with incentives) Sergio Romo - $5 million CLUB OPTION ($250K buyout) TOTAL GUARANTEED MONEY - $56 million ($61 million w/ Romo) ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE PLAYERS (PROJ. $) With the way the season and stats went, these will be hard to project. MLB and the MLBPA haven’t yet decided on how arbitration numbers will be impacted by the shortened season. Let’s just say they’ll be somewhat close to regular numbers. Eddie Rosario (3rd and final year) - proj. $10 million Taylor Rogers (3rd of four years) - proj. $6 million José Berríos (2nd of three years) - proj. $6.5 million Byron Buxton (3rd of four years) - proj. $5 million Tyler Duffey (2nd of three years) - proj. $2 million Matt Wisler (2nd of three years) - proj. $1 million Mitch Garver (1st of three years) - proj. $2.5 million PROJECTED GUARANTEED + ARB MONEY - $90 million 5 key decisions 1. Who is going to start in left field? Eddie Rosario’s future with the Twins has been in question for quite some time. It was questionable at best whether the Twins would tender him close to $10 million before the pandemic wiped out much of 2020’s revenue. It now seems doubtful that Rosario is tendered such a lump some, at least from Minnesota. Perhaps as an omen, Rosario was booted from the biggest game of the year Wednesday while top prospect Alex Kirilloff impressed in his debut both offensively and defensively in the outfield. Cutting or trading Rosario would bring the payroll to about $80 million. 2. Who is going to fill the utility role(s)? Both Marwin González and Ehire Adrianza are entering the market after down years. González looked slow and far from potent at the plate, while Adrianza struggled to barrel up anything all year. The Twins will have to fill these two spots. They need someone who can play shortstop, especially after Polanco was forced to play through an ankle injury throughout 2020. Royce Lewis probably won’t be groomed by opening day. The Twins may bring back the 31-year-old Adrianza, a known entity who is more than capable of filling in up the middle. Josh Donaldson’s first year with the Twins was cut considerably by his nagging calf. The Twins need someone who can hit and fill in at third (or first) base when needed. Given González’s struggles and rapid decline, I’d prefer they look elsewhere. Perhaps Travis Blankenhorn could fill this role? 3. Who will fill out the starting rotation? The Twins are in a much better position than they were heading into last offseason. They had only Berríos returning to the rotation, albeit with a pitching-rich free agent market. This time around, they have Berríos, Pineda and newfound ace Maeda. Randy Dobnak faded down the stretch but his still-excellent career 3.12 may earn him the fifth job. The final spot in the rotation could be filled from within as well. Jhoan Duran hasn’t pitched above Double-A but could be ready soon with electric raw stuff. Jordan Balazovic is probably further away. On the market, the Twins could make a run at the presumable NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. The acquisition of Bauer would put the Twins’ rotation near the top of the league, but at what cost? Other free agent hurlers: Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jake Odorizzi, who has expressed a desire to return to Minnesota. 4. Should they re-sign Nelson Cruz? Cruz will turn 41 next July but just put together another world-beating campaign. The heart and soul of the team hit .303 with a .992 OPS and 16 homers while playing in 53 out of 60 games. A sore knee hindered him into the playoffs but he was the only Twin to drive in a run, responsible for both during the wild card round. Cruz still hit .286/.384/.460 in September, sore knee and all. Derek Falvey indicated Thursday that the Twins are mutually interested in bringing Nelly back. According to Darren Wolfson, the Twins balked at the notion of an extension during spring training. Perhaps Cruz’s top-10 MVP finish will change their minds. There’s also the issue of saturation. Brent Rooker made his debut and looked great, hitting .316 with a .960 OPS over his first 21 plate appearances. Rooker is in the picture along with Trevor Larnach, who dazzled in spring training after winning Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2019. Even after signing Cruz, though, the Twins could run a platoon corner outfield with Rooker and Max Kepler, who looked inept against left-handed pitching in 2020. Larnach’s spot is much murkier in that scenario. 5. How will they fill out the bullpen? The Twins may lose two key members from their bullpen in Trevor May and Tyler Clippard. Rogers, Duffey, Wisler, Cody Stashak, and Jorge Alcalá will seemingly fill five of eight spots. The Twins could use more high-leverage arms, especially after Rogers continually didn’t get the job done in 2020. They could bring back May, who finished the season on an incredibly high note. He struck out 12 over 7 ⅔ scoreless innings before two perfect innings in the playoffs. His secondary stuff and command isn’t always sharp but the upper-90s fastball is extremely effective. He has high-leverage stuff. Clippard was everything the Twins had hoped he would be. A solid, consistent middle-to-high leverage reliever who shuts down lefties. Left-handed hitters had just a .479 OPS against Clippard, a guy who has spent 14 years in the majors and has never gone on the injured list. He could be back, too. Free agent targets include one of the best relievers in baseball in Liam Hendriks, who could re-join Minnesota as a new animal. The Twins could also pick up the $5 million option on Sergio Romo, or buy him out for $250K. What do you want to see the Twins do this offseason? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Yes, it happened again. The Minnesota Twins lost yet another playoff game, and in incredibly frustrating fashion. It could all be over tomorrow, as the Houston Astros are now in a position to eliminate the Twins with another victory.Box Score Maeda: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Romo -.335, Duffey -.155, Rosario -.125 Presumable A.L. Cy Young runner-up Kenta Maeda gave the Twins their first scoreless playoff start since Johan Santana did it in game one of the 2004 ALDS. Maeda struck out five over five innings, escaping a few jams but ultimately doing his job: giving the Twins a chance to win. Zack Greinke started for the Astros and struggled through the first inning. He loaded the bases with one out before Alex Bregman made a tremendous play on a swinging bunt from Miguel Sanó. The Twins didn’t score. The Twins did take advantage of a two-out walk of Max Kepler in the third inning. Nelson Cruz laced a double off the right field wall and Kepler scored, giving the Twins a 1-0 lead. Framber Valdéz, who had a 3.57 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 70 ⅔ innings for Houston this year, relieved extremely effectively for Greinke as the Twins continued their complete ineptitude against left-handed pitching. That lead would hold until Tyler Duffey surrendered three straight singles in the seventh with two outs. Taylor Rogers entered with one on and no outs in the eighth. He escaped without any damage. Sergio Romo allowed two Texas League singles to lead off the eighth, forced two flyouts and then induced weak contact from George Springer, who grounded a ball to short. Jorge Polanco made an errant throw to second, the inning continued, and Romo walked Altuve with the bases loaded. Caleb Thielbar then entered and allowed a two-run single to Michael Brantley to extend the Astros lead to 4-1. The Twins had four hits all day. They went 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position. You just aren’t going to win games with those numbers. The Twins will send José Berríos to the mound Wednesday to try and avoid elimination and their 18th straight postseason loss. Postgame Pint Check out tonight’s episode of Twins Daily’s Postgame Pint live stream on or Facebook. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Click here to view the article

Every postseason, there are impact heroes. That’s the beauty of an incredibly small sample following such a long campaign. One hit, one strikeout or one big play can change your fate. Here are three Twins who could make a huge impact this fall.3. Miguel Sanó Sanó’s 2020 season has been a rollercoaster, as it sometimes can be with him. He hit .140 with a .632 OPS over his first 18 games, frequently swinging through centercut fastballs and striking out at a (even for his standards) ridiculously high rate. Over his next 19 games ranging from August 17th to September 5th, Sanó hit .333/.403/.696 with 15 extra-base hits. The Twins were carried by Miggy and Nelson Cruz for nearly a month as the rest of the lineup remained injured or ineffective. Since then, though, Sanó has cooled considerably. Over his last 55 plate appearances, Miggy has just six hits (.113) and four home runs. He’s struck out 12 times for every walk. When he’s on, Sanó is one of the best sluggers in the game. He leads the A.L. in average exit velocity (95.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (57%). As the type of player who can beat the world for weeks at a time, his bat could be the difference for the Twins in October. They need him. 2. Taylor Rogers Much has been said and written about Taylor Rogers and his struggles recently. Rogers began his season with four sterling outings, allowing just one hit and striking out four. Since then, he has a 5.52 ERA and .353 OBA. Opponents are making contact more often, making hard contact more often, and hitting less ground balls against Rogers. He has struggled to put hitters away, frequently making mistakes in two strike counts. Rogers is still striking out over 11 batters per nine and has given up only two home runs all year. The underlying numbers suggest bad luck has at least a little bit to do with it. No matter, it’s hard to feel confident in the Twins’ closer right now. When he’s himself, though, there are very few better in the game. Rogers ranks second in fWAR among American League relievers since 2018 (4.5), behind only Liam Hendriks of the A’s. The narrative that Rogers has been poor since the 2019 All-Star Game is misguided. He’s been a top five reliever even over the last 13 months. For better or worse, T-Rog is an X factor. 1. José Berríos The emergence of Kenta Maeda has taken loads of pressure off Berríos, who has thrived as the team’s No. 2 starter. Berríos has a 2.14 ERA over the last month with 37 strikeouts in 33 ⅔ innings. This came following a 5.92 ERA over his first five starts of the shortened season. Berríos is slated to start game two of the Wild Card round. He’ll be tasked with either clinching the series or keeping the Twins alive. Even though he’s no longer the game one starter, the team’s fate will be somewhat in his hands. If Berríos can keep it going into October, this rotation will be hard to beat. The Twins will of course need Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Maeda, Max Kepler and others to contribute if they want the ring. The three above, however, may dictate whether their playoff run is extended beyond a round or two. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I agree with your rankings Ted. I may rather see the Rays than Yankees if no more than to avoid pain.

The Minnesota Twins were in need of a big inning and a comfortable victory. They checked both boxes Saturday night at Wrigley Field. This was another nail-biter until the Twins tallied five runs in the seventh inning, then cruised to a victory that clinched a spot in the playoffs.Box Score Pineda: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K Home Runs: Rosario (12), Sanó (13), Donaldson (6) Top 3 WPA: Rosario .196, Pineda .180, Sanó .093 *win probability chart above (via FanGraphs) Your Minnesota Twins are going back to the postseason after an 8-1 win over the Cubs Saturday. Michael Pineda started and gave the Twins five strong innings, allowing only four hits and one run with no walks. Pineda struggled with his command early but was helped by stellar plays from his defense. Ehire Adrianza, with two outs and runners on second and third in the second inning, threw out Nico Hoerner on a bunt attempt. The Cubs got a hit-by-pitch, a single and a double but were only able to score one run in the frame. Pineda now has a 3.18 ERA through four starts. Eddie Rosario got the offense going with a solo blast in the first inning. With a 1-0 Cubs victory last night, the two teams combined to score three runs through the first 14 innings of the series. Recognizing this, manager Rocco Baldelli pulled strings to manufacture a run following a leadoff walk from Alex Avila in the sixth. Avila moved to second on a swinging bunt from LaMonte Wade Jr., who squared up to actually bunt on the first pitch, fouling it off. With both Ryan Jeffers and Mitch Garver available to catch, Baldelli sent out Cave to pinch run for Avila. It paid off. Seemingly to Pineda’s dismay, the Twins opted to hand Tyler Duffey the ball for the sixth with a 2-1 lead. He pitched a tidy 1-2-3 frame, dicing up the heart of the Cubs’ order in Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber. Then came the boom. Leading off the seventh, Miguel Sanó hit a ball to Waveland Avenue. Max Kepler followed up the homer with a double into the Ivy in left field. The Twins then went single, hit-by-pitch, fielder’s choice (no out), single, flyout, single for four more runs. Perhaps the most encouraging, Mitch Garver pinch hit with the bases loaded and ripped a full count liner to left to score two runs. The Twins opened up a 7-1 lead, pounding the Cubs away. Matt Wisler threw two outstanding innings, striking out six and allowing just a single. Wisler, who was acquired this offseason off waivers, brought his season ERA down to 1.11. What a find. Josh Donaldson blasted an opposite field home run in the ninth to up his OPS to .863 on the year. The Twins played a strong all-around game, flashing their much-improved defense and getting clutch hits. They’ll go for the series tomorrow night against Yu Darvish, who owns a sterling 1.86 ERA. Ticket = punched. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Download attachment: Bullpen.png Click here to view the article

The Twins have lost two in a row and four of their last five. They’ll look to get on track Saturday against the Cubs right-hander Alec Mills, who is coming off a no-hitter.Yesterday's Game Recap CHC 1, MIN 0 - The Professor Schools Twins Today: Twins (31-22) @ Cubs (31-20), 7:15 pm CDT No offense, but the Twins’ has disappeared Entering the White Sox series, the Twins were rolling. Since then, they’ve hit .189 with a .646 OPS, scoring 11 total runs over their last five games. The pitching staff has posted a solid 3.29 ERA in that 41 inning span. As has been the case for much of 2020, the Twins’ losses aren’t due to poor pitching and defense. Can they turn it around Saturday? No-hitters in Chi-Town Lucas Giolito won’t be the only pitcher to face the Twins after throwing a no-no. Alec Mills struck out five and held the Brewers to zero knocks in his last start. Coming in to that game, Mills had a 4.74 ERA. The right-hander has given up eight home runs in 52 ⅔ innings. Mills has extreme platoon splits through nine starts in 2020. Righties are hitting just .150 with a .487 OPS, while lefties are hitting .243 with a .771 OPS. Perhaps the Twins start three lefties in the outfield with Jake Cave giving Byron Buxton a day off in center. It’s also a good night for Alex Avila to start behind the plate. Mills ranks below league average in expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and expected wOBA. His no-hitter last Sunday was a great example of the difference in contact and results. Mills gave up 11 (!) hard-hit balls but didn’t allow a single hit. Maybe it’s unfair to call it luck but uh… he’s been lucky. Big Mike goes back to work for Minnesota Michael Pineda has been a stabilizing force for the Twins. He owns a 3.57 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 17 ⅔ innings. Pineda, a three-pitch pitcher, has thrown the heck out of his slider in 2020. Opponents are whiffing at over a 50% rate and hitting just .125 off it. Pineda is unleashing it much more against lefties than he did in 2019, a la Kenta Maeda. It’s working for both of them. WHAT TO WATCH FOR: The Cubs’ offense ranks 17th in wOBA (.315), 20th in wRC+ (95), and 18th in OPS (.722)Pineda’s slider should match up very well with Kris Bryant and Javier Báez, who’ve struggled mightily against breaking balls this year.Lefties Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber and switch-hitter Ian Happ will be the key outs.Byron Buxton and Josh Donaldson have played in five straight games. Look for one or both to get a day off Saturday.Only Caleb Thielbar pitched Friday (thanks to Rich Hill), so the Twins’ bullpen should be well rested.If Buxton plays, will he lead off with Kepler back in the lineup?Around the AL Central: Chicago White Sox 33-18 (+74 run differential) Minnesota Twins 31-22 (+44) Cleveland Indians 28-23 (+37) Detroit Tigers 21-29 (-64) Kansas City Royals 21-30 (-27) Click here to view the article

The Twins, despite a radically different season and playoff format, have seemingly found a way to play the Yankees in the first round. Let’s look at some pros and cons of facing New York in a three-game set.As of Friday, the Twins have a one game lead on the Yankees as the No. 4 seed. The Bronx Bombers have won eight straight games, hitting a ridiculous 27 home runs. It’s absolutely possible, and maybe even likely that the Twins will have to travel to the Bronx for the entirety of the first round. That’s… not ideal. The Twins are 2-17 at Yankee Stadium since 2015. The case for wanting to face New York Slaying the dragon The Yankees’ ownership of the Twins in October is one of the most well-visited fads in all of sports. The Yanks are 16-2 against Minnesota in the postseason, including 13 straight wins. The Twins’ 16 game playoff win drought is tied for the longest in North American sports history. Even as an incredibly passionate fan of the team, this is laughable. It’s hard to be this bad in October. It will end, I promise. What better time than now? What better opponent than them? It’s unlikely the Twins will win the division in 2020. If they beat the Yankees in the playoffs, who cares about the division? That would make the entire up-and-down rollercoaster season worth it. Even a defeat in the ALDS would be taken lighter if the Twins could eliminate New York the round before. Beating the Yankees would be worth two series victories, arguably. It’s not an entirely terrible matchup Gary Sánchez was a massive part of the Yankees offensive attack in 2019. He’s been mostly absent in 2020. Sánchez has been worth negative 0.3 bWAR and Gerrit Cole likely won’t be throwing to him in game one. Another 30 home run hitter in 2019, breakout Gleyber Torres has just three in 126 plate appearances. It helps that the Yankees’ best hitters, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Torres, Luke Voit and Gio Urshela are all right-handed. That’s good news for Kenta Maeda, who has dominated righties for five straight years. The most impactful development of all has been the implosion of New York’s once all-world bullpen. They rank 20th in baseball with a 4.51 ERA, a group sunk by the efforts of Adam Ottavino (6.91) and Aroldis Chapman (4.15). Tommy Kahnle has been out for all but one inning after Tommy John surgery. At least so far in this shortened campaign, the Yankee bullpen hasn’t been scary at all. The case for wanting to avoid New York Disaster Imagine this: the Twins get swept by the Yankees again, extending their postseason drought to 18 games. Two games and poof, the Twins are gone, once again at the hands of their rightful owners. That would be a nightmare. For an entire offseason, we hurt and wreath in the bath of Yankee domination. We again ask ourselves: “will this ever end?” Maybe even more painfully, let’s say the Twins battle and win one of the first two games. Game three is a heart-wrencher, tight until the very end when Aaron Judge ropes a three-run homer off Taylor Rogers to send New York to the glorious (or not so) bubble in California. I’m already crying. Can we handle that again? The answer of course, is yes. But do we want to have to handle that again? Maybe we’d rather lose to someone else for a change. Their stars shine bright DJ LeMahieu was already a stud before signing with the Yankees. Now he’s a full-fledged superstar. LeMahieu had a case to win A.L. MVP in 2019, hitting .327 with 26 homers and 33 doubles in 145 games on an injury-riddled team. The 2020 Yankees are also injury-riddled (and LeMahieu hasn’t escaped unscathed) but the utility infielder has hit a nutty .373/.421/.627 with 2 fWAR in just 39 games. Luke Voit, after missing the playoff roster in 2019, leads baseball with 20 homers. A healthy Aaron Judge is a menace on both sides of the ball. Giancarlo Stanton has a 195 wRC+ in 16 games. That’s, uh, really high. Gerrit Cole is also a major puzzle. The $324 million man has a 0.90 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 20 September innings. Outside of (maybe) Shane Bieber, there’s no worse matchup for any team than Cole in the A.L. He’ll be dialed in and ready to rock in game one. The beauty of baseball, and why so many people hate the new format, is that anyone can beat anyone on any given day. Cole’s start guarantees nothing. Also, the Twins could just go win the next two if he dominates in game one. What do you think? Do you want to face the Yankees in round one? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Twins will host Cleveland for a pivotal three-game series this weekend at Target Field. Friday’s game specifically could have a big impact on the A.L. MVP race.Starting pitchers have had a hard time winning MVP; only 25 have won the award since 1931. It sure feels like No. 26 will be crowned in 2020. Cleveland starter Shane Bieber is on his way to the triple crown, leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He’s been untouchable, posting an insane 1.25 ERA and 94 strikeouts in his first 57 ⅔ innings. The Cy Young award is all but locked up for the Beebs, but is the MVP? This shortened season has seen more than a handful of players thrive. The White Sox have a legitimate candidate in 2019 breakout Tim Anderson, who ranks fourth in the A.L. in fWAR (1.9). Anderson’s teammate José Abreu is lighting it up too, hitting .311/.355/.599 with 13 homers in 43 games. Anthony Rendon, after missing the start of the year, has emerged with a league-leading 2.3 fWAR. Oh, and don’t forget about Mike Trout, who finds himself near but not on top of most statistical categories with a few weeks to go. I wouldn’t put a world-beating final stretch past him. But… Nelson Cruz trumps all offensive foes. The 40-year-old Cruz leads MLB in wOBA (.459), wRC+ (193), and OPS (1.117). He’s produced 19.9 fWAR offensively, the most in the A.L. Cruz is hitting a nutty .343/.432/.685 with 15 home runs, tied with Mike Trout and Fernando Tatís Jr. for the most in baseball. Tom Verducci recently told Pat Reusse that “everything seems to be about WAR now with a majority of the [MVP] voters, and with a DH getting zero help from defense with WAR … I don’t know how it’s going to happen.” Cruz’s 2.2 fWAR ranks second behind only Rendon, who is hitting at a 30% lesser clip by wRC+. Cruz also ranks third in bWAR (1.9) behind Abreu and rookie Luis Robert. It’s true that even with how amazing Cruz has been in 2020, a primary DH has never won MVP. This isn’t your typical great season from a DH, though. This just might be the year where it could make sense. Nelson Cruz is hitting better than any DH in baseball history. Yes, it’s only been 45 games. Simple sample size rules will tell us we can’t compare him to 162-game season players. That’s fair. Let’s look at the best DH starts to a season, sorted by OPS after 45 team games, as many as the Twins have played. Somehow, 2020 Nelly has been more productive than 2019 Nelly at this point. With only 15 games to go, it isn’t crazy to think Cruz’s numbers won’t totally free fall from their towering heights. 75% of his stats are locked in. He’s in winning position with the all-mighty Bieber standing his way. The two will face off Friday night. Who will make their statement? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

As we approach the postseason, it’s important to know which pitches (and from whom) we may see in the biggest spots. Who has the five best pitches on the team?5. José Berríos’ curveball JB has been great over his last three starts. Opponents are hitting .175/.268/.254 during his last 17 ⅔ innings pitched. His curveball command has been a massive factor in that. It showed Wednesday against the White Sox. 2019 breakout Yoán Moncada opened Berríos’ 2020 campaign by blasting a three-run homer in Chicago. On Wednesday, though, Berríos battled Moncada into a strikeout, burning him with a nasty curveball in a full count. Opponents are hitting .125 against his breaker this year 4. Matt Wisler’s slider Ew. This pitch is disgusting. Wisler joined the Twins as a waiver wire pickup and made them look brilliant for bringing him in. He’s tied with Max Kepler and Randy Dobnak for the fourth most bWAR (0.7) on the club. Wisler came into the ninth inning to face Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert and Nomar Mazara with a 3-2 lead in Tuesday’s win. Ehire Adrianza helped with a great play at third, but Wisler diced up Robert with sliders away and struck out both he and Mazara to break the six game losing streak. Wisler is throwing his slider over *81%* of the time, generating a 40% whiff rate and .125 opponent batting average. ‘ 3. Tyler Duffey’s curveball The Doof has been one of the best relievers in baseball for over a calendar year. Duffey was excellent in 10 starts in 2015; he posted a 3.10 ERA in 58 innings with 53 strikeouts. In his next 229 innings, his ERA ballooned to 6.05. He seemingly hit rock bottom in 2019 when he started the season at Triple-A with his career hanging in the balance. Duffey then reverted to a mostly strict fastball-slider/curve combo to get outs. It worked wonderfully. In 2020, he’s thrown more of a 12-6 curve nearly 60% of the time. Opponents are hitting .103 with a 48.3% whiff rate against the pitch. Duffey has become a weapon. 2. Kenta Maeda’s slider Maeda is off to a great start in a Twins uniform. He’s produced more bWAR (1.3) in 42 ⅔ innings this year than he did in 153 ⅔ innings last year (1.2). A few changes in pitch mix, specifically more reliance on his slider, and less on his fastball, has propelled him to sparkly heights. Maeda generated a 40.7% whiff rate on his slider in 2019, holding opponents to a .158 average. 1. Sergio Romo’s slider Sergio has carved out a terrific career, one with three World Series titles, with his insanely efficient slider. Since his debut in 2008, Romo has faced 1,623 right-handed hitters. They’ve hit .196/.240/.336 off him. Among pitchers who’ve faced 1,500 righties or more during that span, Sergio ranks fourth in opponent OPS. The reason? The slider. Romo throws a mid 80s fastball with little life, but his slider is so effective that his lack of velocity hasn’t mattered for over a decade. Romo has thrown his slider more than ever in 2020. He’s showing the pitch 70% of the time and 78% of the time versus righties. Opponents are hitting .133 with a .220 wOBA against it. When righties Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres find the plate in October, I want Sergio and his slider on the mound in the late innings. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article