Nash Walker

It’s not often a playoff team trades away their ace the following offseason, but the Tampa Bay Rays could do so with Tyler Glasnow. Baseball is a relatively simple game. Offseasons are usually just as simple, with contending teams adding to their rosters while clubs further away build for the future. The Rays are an exception to that rule. Fresh off an American League pennant in 2020, the Rays turned around and traded their frontline starter, Blake Snell, to the Padres. Snell then had the worst season of his career, furthering the Rays’ impeccable timing on pitchers (but maybe not Joe Ryan). Constantly churning their roster and trading away pricey players for elite prospects, the Rays embody the notion that no player is “untouchable.” Enter Tyler Glasnow. The six-foot-8 monster from California is a must-watch when he takes the mound. Glasnow, 28, pairs a triple-digits fastball with a wipeout hook. Glasnow has struck out 36% of hitters since 2019, the third-highest rate behind Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. Glasnow’s name floated at the trade deadline, with Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin reporting potential possibilities. Among 114 starters who’ve pitched at least 200 innings over the last three seasons, Glasnow ranks third in ERA (2.80), xFIP (2.78), and opponent’s average (.185), fourth in FIP (2.87), and sixth in SIERA (3.03). For as dominant as he is on the mound, he’s not on it very often. Glasnow hasn’t thrown 100 innings in a season since 2018 when he threw 111 2/3. Injuries have riddled his career, and 2021 was no exception. Glasnow was rocking a 2.66 ERA and 36% strikeout rate before he got hurt last June. His season ended with Tommy John surgery in August, and he’s likely to miss all of the 2022 season. A free agent after 2023, Glasnow is projected to make $5.8 million in his third year of arbitration (2022), with a raise to $8 or $9 million in year four (2023). Trading for Glasnow would be an investment for 2023, when the Twins hope to be back in contention. Think of the first Michael Pineda contract, when he rehabbed in year one and contributed in year two. That deal went well, and there’s a “back pocket” aspect to a trade like this. A trade makes sense if the Rays are looking to shed payroll and cash in on Glasnow before he inevitably reaches free agency. There’s no telling how many starts the Twins could expect from Glasnow in 2023, who will have thrown only 206 innings the past four seasons. Like Byron Buxton, assessing Glasnow’s trade value is a tricky proposition. He’s an elite player with health a major question mark. MLB Trade Simulator says a Ryan Jeffers and Jhoan Duran package would satisfy both sides. If the Rays wanted quantity, Matt Canterino, Keoni Cavaco, Brent Rooker, Caleb Thielbar, and Matt Wallner match up well. As Rosenthal eloquently wrote, Glasnow coming off Tommy John surgery is probably a better bet than any prospect the Twins would trade for him. Additionally, the inside track to an extension is compelling and offers an attractive opportunity for more value. Whether a long-term investment in Glasnow is wise is another question. Again, when healthy, he's unquestionably an ace. The Twins haven't had one of those over a decade. Glasnow’s price in a trade would likely be less than that of Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo, or even Chris Bassitt. It’s a high-upside move that could give the Twins a weapon in 2023 and potentially beyond. What do you think? Should the Twins make a run at Tyler Glasnow? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Rays ace Tyler Glasnow is set to miss most or all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. When he's healthy, he's one of the most electric starters in the league, with a triple-digits fastball and devastating breaking stuff. A free agent after 2023, could the Twins get an inside track for an extension after a trade? Comment your thoughts. View full video

Unlike their pitching prospects, the Twins seem to have only four or five clear position players who could debut 2022. Who are you most likely to see at Target Field? This is an exciting group with high-risk, high-reward prospects mixed with established minor league hitters. Let's break it down. 13. SS Noah Miller The Twins picked Miller, 19, in the first round of the 2021 draft. JD Cameron recently broke down Millers’ all-around skills, if not his lack of a transparent standout tool. Miller could see Low-A in 2022, but a slow progression is a good bet. 12. OF Emmanuel Rodríguez The Twins may have a budding top prospect in Rodríguez. At 18 years old, Rodríguez posted an .870 OPS in 153 plate appearances for the FCL Twins in 2021. That’s quite impressive for someone listed at 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds. 11. OF Misael Urbina Urbina, 19, is still a ways away from the high-minors. He hit just .191/.299/.286 for Fort Myers in 2021. He was over two years younger than the average Low-A position player, but Urbina has work to do before 2022. 10. SS Keoni Cavaco Cavaco, 20, has had a rough two years in the minors. He’s played only 88 games, but Cavaco has hit just .217/.276/.289 while striking out in 35% of his plate appearances. 2022 is a big year for the former first-round pick. 9. UTIL Alerick Soularie There is a noticeable gap between Soularie and the four above him on this list. Soularie is an advanced college hitter who has yet to settle into the minors. Soularie, 22, was a monster at Tennessee and is a sleeper breakout candidate for 2022. 8. UTIL Edouard Julien Julien, 22, hit .267/.434/.480 across both A-levels in 2021, showing off impressive speed with 34 steals and power with 47 extra-base hits. One should expect Julien to hit in the heart of Wichita’s order for much of 2022. 7. 1B Aaron Sabato The Twins’ first-round pick in 2020 didn’t exactly turn heads during his pro debut. Sabato, 22, hit .202/.373/.410 across two levels, but that included a monstrous showing at High-A. Sabato could move up rapidly if he carries that late-season production into 2022. 6. OF Matt Wallner Twins fans have paid closer attention to Wallner, 24, because of his roots. A Forest Lake native, his performance should draw just as many eyes. Wallner hit .264/.350/.508 at Cedar Rapids despite working through a broken hamate bone in 2021. 5. SS Royce Lewis Many are anxiously awaiting the return of Lewis, 22, who has lost two full minor league seasons of development. He’s the type of talent who could move up quickly if everything clicks. Lewis’ progression is one of the biggest storylines for the Twins in 2022. 4. UTIL Spencer Steer Steer, 24, quietly broke out with a powerful 2021 campaign. Steer hit ten homers in 45 games for Cedar Rapids and earned a promotion to Wichita. His overall line there wasn’t great, but he had a 35-game stretch where he hit .272/.336/.544 with 18 extra-base hits. 3. UTIL Austin Martin Martin, 22, shouldn’t spend too much longer in the minors if things go as planned. Martin posted a .414 On-Base Percentage at Double-A last year and could spend most of his time in St. Paul in 2022. He’s a prime September call-up candidate. 2. OF Gilberto Celestino Arguably the Twins’ best defensive replacement for Byron Buxton in centerfield, Celestino, 22, is primed for another look in 2022. He hit .290/.384/.443 in 49 games for the Saints following a less-than-stellar debut with the Twins. 1. INF José Miranda A lock for a prominent role if he’s healthy, Miranda is far and away the closest Twins prospect to the majors. Miranda, 23, was spotless at the plate in 2021. His adjustment to major league pitching is a story to watch in 2022. The takeaway: prepare for Miranda Mania at Target Field. The breakout prospect is guaranteed to debut if healthy. Sleeper contributors include Lewis, Celestino, and Steer, with Martin likely joining the team later in the summer. The lefty-righty combo of Wallner and Sabato is intriguing for the future, as is Rodríguez. Who are you most excited to see in 2022? Comment below! FOR THE PITCHER LIST, CLICK HERE -> Ranking the Twins Top Pitching Prospects by ETA MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article

The Twins have an exciting and deep group of pitching prospects close to the majors. Who could we see first in 2022? If the Twins truly choose to “punt” on 2022 and get a long look at their young pitching, which prospects can fans expect to see first? 11. Chase Petty Petty, 18, may be the most exciting pitcher in the Twins’ system, with a triple-digits fastball headlining a potentially electric array of weapons. He’s also the furthest away from the majors. The hope for Petty in 2022 is a full-season loaded with strikeouts. 10. Simeon Woods Richardson That Woods Richardson, who pitched at Double-A last year, is the ninth most-likely to debut shows you how many young starters are coming. SWR, 21, struggled to get going in 2021, but a full season in one place should help him progress in 2022. 9. Louie Varland The Twins’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2021, Varland completely broke out to the tune of a 2.10 ERA across Low and High-A. Varland, 24, struck out 142 of the 421 batters he faced (34%) and figures to headline Wichita’s rotation when he breaks camp. 8. Chris Vallimont Vallimont struck out 32% of hitters he faced in 2021 but walked 14% and gave up 15 homers. He’s 24 with 94 innings under his belt at Double-A, albeit with a 6.13 ERA. Vallimont could debut out of the Twins’ bullpen with a good stint in St.Paul. 7. Matt Canterino This may be a surprising spot for Canterino, 24, considering he finished 2021 at High-A in Cedar Rapids. His stuff is flat-out devastating and if the Twins decide he’s a future reliever, his path to Minnesota could be expedited in a hurry. 6. Cole Sands Sands, 24, owns a 2.58 ERA and 28% strikeout rate in over 177 Minor League innings. He was outstanding down the stretch in 2021 and is set to man a spot in the Saints’ rotation to start 2022. If he stays healthy, he should debut by the summer. 5. Jordan Balazovic The Twins are rightly-set on Balazovic as a future starter, which could dial back his debut by a hair. Balazovic, 23, was tinkering with different pitch mixes throughout the 2021 season. He could do more of that in St.Paul to start 2022. 4. Drew Strotman Strotman, 25, pitched over 100 innings at Triple-A in 2021. He started 12 games for the Saints after the Rays traded him to the Twins, and he allowed an .850 opponent’s OPS. A move to the bullpen would speed up his timeline. 3. Jhoan Duran Duran, 24, struck out 14 of the first 28 hitters he faced for St.Paul in 2021, then struggled and missed the rest of the season with an elbow strain. A hybrid Major League role to build Duran’s workload and experience would make a lot of sense. 2. Josh Winder Winder was one of the best starters at Double-A before the Twins moved him up to St.Paul, where he dominated in his first Triple-A start. Like Duran, Winder, 25, then struggled and missed the rest of the season due to injury. He could be the first call-up of 2022. 1. Joe Ryan Ryan has already won over his fair share of Twins fans with a cool demeanor and outstanding results. Ryan’s fastballs look like they ride to the plate on a ramp, and as of now, Ryan is pitching on opening weekend in Chicago. The takeaway: you're set to see a lot of young starters pitch for the Twins in 2022. If healthy, the first five seem like locks, with Sands not far behind, and Canterino a sleeper bullpen addition. Vallimont and Varland aren't miles away either, with Petty and Woods Richardson trailing as the youngest of the group. Who are you most excited to see in 2022? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Mitch Garver has been one of baseball’s best offensive catchers in recent seasons. With free agency looming after the 2023 season, should the Twins extend their right-handed slugger? Mitch Garver, 31, was incredible during the Twins’ magical 2019 run to a division title. He hit 31 homers and drove in 67 runs in 359 plate appearances. Since then, he struggled in a shortened 2020 and bounced back in 2021. Let’s examine his case for an extension. The Case FOR Extension Among catchers with at least 600 plate appearances over the last three seasons, Garver ties Dodgers’ Will Smith for the highest wRC+ (135). He’s arguably been the best-hitting catcher in the league over that span, even with a brutal 2020 season. Garver has produced 29.2 FanGraphs offensive WAR since 2019, ranking right behind Phillies’ star J.T. Realmuto among catchers. To have an elite bat at the catcher spot is one of the most valued commodities in the sport. Garver qualifies as that. Nine Twins have logged 1,000 or more plate appearances since 2018. Only Nelson Cruz (162) has a higher OPS+ than Garver (124), who has hit .256/.341/.494 since becoming a regular. An intercostal strain and ineffectiveness marred Garver’s COVID season, but he returned to form in 2021. Garver had 28 extra-base hits in just 68 games. If not for a brutal injury shortening his season, the Albuquerque native was on pace for a repeat of 2019. He set career-highs in hard-hit rate (54%) and walk rate (13%). Garver ranked in the 93rd percentile in pitch framing, furthering his progression behind the plate. Garver was negative-17 in Defensive Runs Saved in 2018. Since then, he’s been a plus-defender, saving four runs. He’s made serious strides and is now a masher who you can rely on defensively. Extension Comp: James McCann, New York Mets This is a little tricky, but McCann was around the same age as Garver when he signed a four-year, $40.6 million deal with the Mets. McCann was a free agent coming off two terrific seasons in Chicago. Both are right-handed sluggers who crush left-handed pitching. McCann tanked in his first season in New York with a .643 OPS and negative-bWAR, but he provides a solid look at what a Garver deal could encompass. Garver projects to make $3.1 million in 2022 and about $6 million in 2023 via arbitration. The Case AGAINST Extension That Garver is a catcher has been a significant plus in addition to his offense. The Twins are assuming he remains a solid catcher in an extension like this. That’s a rosy assumption. Garver is heading into his 30s and has already dealt with multiple injuries over the last few years. There’s also redundancy with two right-handed catchers on the roster. Ryan Jeffers looks very similar to Garver, with strong framing skills and differing splits against right and left-handed pitchers. It’s not an ideal tandem, but that’s not to say it’s impossible to navigate. Garver has had periods where he’s late on fastballs, and he doesn’t precisely limit his strikeout rate. There’s plenty of swing-and-miss in his game, and he has been streaky at specific points. When Garver's on, he’s lethal. When he’s not, you get stretches like 2020 and the first month of 2021. The Bottom Line Garver, like Luis Arraez and Taylor Rogers, is a staple of the Twins. He’s another favorite who has given Twins fans unforgettable moments of cheer since his debut. He’s become a rock-solid defender and has combined it with a beautiful right-handed swing. It’s always important to note that you are paying for the future in any discussion of a new contract. Garver has been great up to this point, but will he age well into his 30s? Can the Twins afford to invest in their catcher with so much uncertainty in the rotation? With an open DH spot in 2022, it’s conceivable that Garver will get to 500 plate appearances. What if he mashes, and the Twins risk losing him after 2023? Now could be the time to avoid that fate. Or maybe you ride out the next two years and move along at that point. What do you think? Should the Twins extend Mitch Garver? Comment your thoughts below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Only the Dodgers' Will Smith has a higher wRC+ than Mitch Garver among catchers since 2019. As he enters his 30s, it's fair to wonder whether Garver will remain solid behind the plate in addition to his elite bat. Should the Twins extend him beyond the 2023 season, after which he's set to become a free agent? Comment your thoughts below! View full video

By nature, the Twins’ most likely trade candidate is also a prime extension candidate. Should the Twins extend their best reliever beyond 2022? Taylor Rogers bounced back from a difficult 2020 and pitched very well in 2021 until a finger injury knocked him out. With uncertainty in the bullpen and free agency looming next winter, should the Twins extend Rogers beyond 2022? The Case FOR Extension There’s no question that Rogers, 31, has become an underrated pitcher. He’s consistently been one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball and a steadying force for the Twins. Since 2018, Rogers ranks 10th among 209 relievers in Win Probability Added (5.78), 5th in fWAR (6.1), 9th in strikeout-to-walk rate (26%), and ties Josh Hader in FIP (2.52). Only Kirby Yates, Liam Hendriks, Felipe Vázquez, and Ryan Pressly have a lower Fielding Independent Pitching than Rogers in that span. He was the anchor for the Twins bullpen in 2019, when he was relied on for multiple-inning saves and back-to-back duties. Rogers combines an upper-90s sinker with a sharp, biting slider. He has excellent command and control and predictably rebounded from a rough 20 innings in 2020. Rogers was rolling in 2021 with a 2.45 ERA and 2.02 FIP before giving up a grand slam before the All-Star Break. The stifling lefty held opponents to a .262 On-Base Percentage up to that swing. Rogers is not only an anchor on the mound for the Twins; he’s a leader in the bullpen and the team’s MLBPA representative. He’s been a steady face for the club and is a fan favorite. Rogers’ underlying numbers also suggest that his numbers will trend in a favorable direction. Extension Comp: Zack Britton, New York Yankees Britton is a solid comp for Rogers, as both are left-handed and around the same age at the time of an extension. Britton inked a deal with the Yankees for three years and $39 million, with an option for a fourth year. $39 million over three years is probably a bit rich for Rogers, whose numbers don’t quite match up to Britton’s. It’s a solid base. The Case AGAINST Extension Rogers has indeed had some bad luck in recent years. It’s also true that his numbers haven’t been there since 2019. Rogers has a mediocre 3.58 ERA over his last 60 1/3 innings while converting 18 of 24 saves. He’s produced Negative-0.2 bWAR over the previous two seasons. Rogers has also struggled to contain right-handed hitters at times. His career splits are now stark, with a 177 point OPS drop facing left-handed hitters. The Twins worked on spotting up Rogers against more lefties by acquiring Alexander Colomé and going with a closer-by-committee. That plan went haywire as Colomé struggled early and Rogers was hurt late. Hence the biggest concern with a Rogers extension: health. His season ended prematurely due to a tendon injury in his finger in 2021. He didn’t get surgery, but it’s a storyline to watch if he remains a Twin in 2022 and beyond. Relievers can burn bright and burn out, and it’s fair to wonder if Rogers has seen his best days as a reliever. He’s been outstanding for the Twins, but you pay players for the future, not the past. The Bottom Line A healthy Taylor Rogers is still one of the game’s better relievers, and his stuff looked pristine in 2021. The Twins have plenty of bullpen uncertainty and an exciting group of developing starters that will undoubtedly produce a reliever or two. The Twins have avoided large bullpen contracts like the plague. Would they change up their process for a homegrown, beloved staple? They didn’t for Trevor May. It’s an interesting question and one that may get answered before spring training commences. What do you think? Should the Twins extend Taylor Rogers beyond 2022? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Twins are averse to signing relievers to multi-year deals. Would they change up their process for Taylor Rogers, whose been one of the best left-handed relievers in baseball since 2018? Comment your thoughts below! View full video

Luis Arraez has captured the hearts of Twins Territory. Should the team make an effort to lock him up past his current contract? With four seasons of arbitration before he reaches free agency, Arraez will earn built-in raises, starting with an estimated $2 million in 2022. With relevant comps and projections, let’s examine the case for an extension beyond those four years. The Case FOR Extension Arraez is a joy to watch. It’s not just his elite propensity to spit on or foul off the most challenging pitches or his uncanny ability to spray line drives all over the field. Arraez, 24, plays the game with pure giddiness and buzz. He’s someone you want on your team and in your lineup. In a league with more and more swing and miss, Arraez is a welcomed change of pace. In 245 games, Arraez has hit .313 with a sterling .374 On-Base Percentage. The man coined as “La Regadera” (The Sprinkler) finished 2021 in the 100th percentile in whiff rate and the 99th percentile in strikeout rate. Since making his debut in 2019, Arraez ranks first on the Twins in average (.313), second in hits (271), and fifth in FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (4.7). Any reasonable expectation you had for Arraez, who ranked as the Twins’ 17th best prospect in 2019, has been exceeded. Arraez saved five runs at third base in 2021 with a positive Outs Above Average score. He’s far from a butcher at the hot corner. While he was poor defensively at second base in 2019, Arraez has bounced back with two positive DRS seasons and graded favorably in left field. The defensive concerns have been somewhat overblown. As it stands, Arraez is a Twin through his age-28 season (2024). The built-in raises will likely push his contract value to $22-25 million. It’s already a very affordable deal for the Twins, but an extension could create even more weight if he adds some pop and improves defensively. EXTENSION COMP: David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels Angels' second baseman Fletcher is an excellent comp when considering extension numbers. Fletcher, 27, is older than Arraez but almost identical as a player. Fletcher hit .292/.346/.386 in 283 games before a horrific 2021. He’s a high-contact second baseman with solid offensive numbers. Arraez is a better hitter, but Fletcher is one of baseball's best defensive second baseman. Fletcher inked a five-year, $26 million deal with two option years, potentially taking him through his age-33 season. Fletcher, like Arraez, was set to be a free agent following the 2024 season. The Case AGAINST Extension Like any player and even our favorites, Arraez has apparent flaws. While his defense grades out nicely, he’s visibly stretched at second base and lacks the arm strength to make plays consistently at third. His experiment in left field wasn’t impressive, and he has no home with Jorge Polanco entrenched at second and myriad outfielders coming, plus José Miranda. Arraez has a history of knee problems, with stints on the injured list a common occurrence. Extending him beyond four years and into his 30s seems like more of a risk than it would be for other 24-year-olds. One of the pulls with Arraez is that he seems like a constant. The sluggers will streak, but Arraez is a consistent sparkplug. That wasn’t quite the case in 2021. Arraez was incredibly streaky, which is even more damaging for a hitter with zero power. When Arraez isn’t slashing the ball or walking, he adds virtually nothing to the lineup. The positive streaks are also less valuable when you aren’t punishing home runs. The Twins boast a glut at Arraez’s central positions. Polanco is a Twin through at least 2025, and Miranda is knocking. Josh Donaldson is still on the team, and Alex Kirilloff looks like the future at first base. Add Trevor Larnach in left field, and things get murkier. The best call might be to trade Arraez before his knees become a more significant issue. Or maybe the Twins bounce him around, including at DH, and re-assess in four seasons. There’s no urgency here. The Bottom Line The Twins are at a pivotal point. They must address the starting rotation and build a winner. While it’s true that Arraez would likely bring back an excellent return, this is a fanbase that needs any positive vibes it can get. Arraez is beloved and can help fans stay engaged and return to the ballpark. The reaction to an Arraez extension would be overwhelmingly positive. That shouldn’t dictate whether the Twins decide to pursue it, but it should be a consideration, as it was with Byron Buxton. An Arraez extension wouldn’t touch the $100 million the Twins guaranteed to their star centerfielder for the reasons mentioned above. You mitigate risk by adding in a couple million on top of what Arraez would earn, plus a few more guaranteed years. This is not a Buxton-type extension. It’s not feasible to expect Arraez to significantly outplay a contract, which is a reason against such a deal. What he could do, though, is cement himself as another central face for the next 5-10 years at a reasonable cost to the team. Comment your thoughts below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

With four years remaining till free agency, extending Luis Arraez isn't an urgent need, but it could be a savvy move. Arraez is beloved by the fan base and an affordable extension would bring some positive energy at a time when it's needed. What do you think? Comment below! View full video

A “sleeper” in sports is a player who is often overlooked but has the upside to contribute in a meaningful way. Who are three sleeper candidates for the 2022 Twins? 3. Randy Dobnak 2021: 50 2/3 IP, 7.64 ERA (56 ERA+), 5.70 ERA, 12% K, 5% BB, -1.3 WAR It feels like centuries ago, but Dobnak was once a terrific pitcher for the Twins. Bursting onto the scene in 2019, Dobnak produced a sterling 2.25 ERA over his first 68 Major League innings. While José Berríos struggled and Michael Pineda was suspended over the first month of 2020, Dobnak and Kenta Maeda carried the rotation. It hasn’t been pretty since. Dobnak owns an 8.12 ERA over his last 57 2/3 innings, with declining strikeout and exorbitant hard-hit rates. Since signing his five-year contract extension, Dobnak has allowed 43 runs in just 50 2/3 innings. Add in a season-ending finger injury and the word ‘disaster’ seems fitting for Dobnak’s 2021 season. Despite recent results, there are reasons to believe in a bounce back. The horizontal movement on Dobnak’s signature sinker is still elite, with a top-six finish in 2021 (min. 250 pitches). Middle-finger strains can impact command, and sinkers are often reliant on pressure from that finger. If Dobnak can get healthy, that simple change could turn him back into a sturdy rotation member in 2022. 2. Ryan Jeffers 2021: 85 G, 293 PA, .199/.270/.401 (83 OPS+), 10 2B, 3B, 14 HR, 0.6 WAR The Twins put Jeffers in a difficult role last summer. They made sure to start lefty-masher Mitch Garver against southpaws, with Nelson Cruz entrenched at DH and Miguel Sanó at first base. That left Jeffers facing exclusively tough right-handed starters. That’s a tall task for a rookie catcher. With Cruz’s departure, Jeffers will undoubtedly receive more playing time against left-handed pitching in 2021. That adjustment alone should boost his offensive output Jeffers also showed a propensity to punish the ball in 2021. Among 37 catchers with at least 150 Batted Ball Events, Jeffers ranked 9th in hard-hit rate (44%), ahead of Travis d’Arnaud, Will Smith, and Gary Sánchez. Jeffers also caught a barrel in 7.8% of his plate appearances, ranking 5th and beating out Yasmani Grandal. A better role combined with hopefully improved contact rates could propel Jeffers to a breakout in 2022. At the very least, many are underestimating his potential impact. 1. Jorge Alcala 2021: 59 2/3 IP, 3.92 ERA (109 ERA+), 4.06 FIP, 27% K, 6% BB, 0.3 WAR Alcala wasn’t exempt from criticism for the Twins’ early-season collapse. He was mainly bad for his first 40 appearances, posting a 5.73 ERA and 5.35 FIP with just a 22% strikeout rate. As TwinsDaily’s JD Cameron pointed out, Alcala made some critical adjustments late in the season and flipped his results. Alcala allowed two runs over his last 22 innings (0.82 ERA). He struck out 27 of the 77 batters he faced (35%) and allowed just a .420 OPS. Alcala was incredibly dominant, combining his wipeout slider and 100 MPH fastball with an improved changeup. Now entering his age-26 season and with the Twins likely ramping up his role, a full-on Alcala emergence is bubbling. There is no pitcher on the Twins’ roster with better stuff or higher upside. COMMENT BELOW! Who are your sleeper candidates for the 2022 Twins? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Bailey Ober and Jorge Polanco, in their own ways, emerged as sleeper contributors for the 2021 Twins. Who are the three sleeper candidates for the 2022 Twins? View full video

FanGraphs’ Steamer projections foresee an elite season from the Twins’ newly-extended, star centerfielder. The tool doesn’t project a rosy picture for the Twins’ rotation in 2022, as expected. It isn’t exceptionally high on many Twins pitching prospects, nor is it fired up about Mitch Garver. But one area that Twins fans can lean on is the Byron Buxton portion. Steamer projects Buxton to hit .268/.316/.514 with 33 doubles, two triples, and 31 homers. Buxton’s projection of 6.5 defensive fWAR is the highest among all American League outfielders. His 4.3 fWAR ranks fourth among AL outfielders, behind only Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Luis Robert. Buxton is estimated to produce more value than J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Chapman, Max Muncy, Giancarlo Stanton, and Tim Anderson. Buxton projects as the fourth most valuable player in the AL Central, behind José Ramírez, Robert, and Yasmani Grandal. Most encouragingly, Steamer projects Buxton to appear in 131 games and head to the plate 567 times. Buxton’s projections are even more impressive considering the tool has him playing fewer games than everybody but Grandal among the top-30 in fWAR. Buxton owns a 135 wRC+ over his last 187 games, and Steamer says he’ll surpass Franmil Reyes, Eloy Jiménez, Marcus Semien, Randy Arozarena, Austin Riley, and Nolan Arenado in 2022 wRC+. This offense all while Buxton roams centerfield at the highest level in baseball. None of this comes as a surprise. Buxton is an elite player, evidenced by his $100 million contract extension. It does give a glimpse of how an entire season of Buxton could look. Even these gaudy projections feel conservative for fans who’ve watched him over the last three years. Entering his age-28 season at peak physical shape, the very best could bubble for Buxton in just a few months. That possibility makes it more important for the Twins to invest in the 2022 team. What do you think about Steamer’s 2022 projections for Byron Buxton? Comment below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article