Patrick Wozniak

One of the difficulties in ranking prospects is considering how much to weigh a younger player’s future based on upside verses proximity to the majors. FanGraphs recently released two top-100 lists, Eric Longenhagen’s, which is a more traditional scouting-based list, and Dan Szymborski’s, based on ZiPS projections, which puts more emphasis on performance.The two lists create an interesting juxtaposition, as Longenhagen’s list tends to favor the younger, high-upside prospects, while the ZiPS projection-based list favors not only prior performance, but proximity to the majors as well. 74 players appear on both lists, and they agree on three of the top-four prospects, but there is quite a bit of variation in the rankings. Luckily for us Twins fans, Minnesota’s farm system is stacked with prospects who fit both descriptions, so let’s compare the lists and see what it means for us. First Longenhagen’s top-100: Download attachment: FanGraph Top 100 chart photo.png It’s hard to argue with the names included, though one could definitely quibble with the ordering. Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff will forever be linked as left-handed hitting bat-first corner outfield prospects (though Kirilloff may well end up at first), but it is generally Kirilloff who has been ranked higher. Royce Lewis comes in first, which is to be expected, and his 13th overall rating is certainly encouraging. Again, you could arguably flip Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic, but they were also Twins Daily’s fourth and fifth ranked prospects and it’s nice to see them both in the top 100. Finally, although he’s obviously no longer in the organization, Brusdar Graterol fell all the way to 113 on this list. As this list was released after the trade, it’s hard not to wonder if the Twins plan to keep him in the ‘pen and the Boston medical fiasco hurt his ranking. Now, for some projection-based madness: Download attachment: ZiPS Top 100 chart photo.png The first thing you probably noticed is the ominous omission of both Kirilloff and Larnach. I found this perplexing as they seem to fit the good results/close proximity to the majors narrative that the ZiPS projections are supposed to favor. Fortunately, Szymborski specifically addressed this is the comment section, saying ZiPS is harder on those lower on the defensive spectrum, hated Kirilloff’s 2019 (due to injury and not hitting enough for corner OF/1B) and didn’t like Larnach due to his lack of power. Before we all go out and start bashing computers, I should point out that according to Szymborski, based on 2014 rankings (ZiPS first top-100 list), ZiPS’s list has combined for 592.2 WAR, more than FanGraphs (563.7), Keith Law (553.8), and MLB Pipeline (448.9). Royce Lewis also isn’t as well-loved by ZiPS, but considering his disappointing numbers in 2019, it could be taken as a sign of encouragement that he still makes the top-100 in the more number-driven system. After getting over the exclusion of the aforementioned outfield duo, the next big surprise is that both catcher Ryan Jeffers and starter Lewis Thorpe make the list. Jeffers has gained a lot of helium and was up to number seven on the Twins Daily list (sixth without Graterol), but this is certainly the first list that includes him in the top 100. On the one hand, Jeffers’s improvement in the area of pitch framing and overall defense would seem to favor him more on traditional, scouting-based lists, but his proficiency with the bat as a catcher, and the fact that he reached and played well at AA in 2019, undoubtably boosted his projections. Although it’s mildly surprising to see Lewis Thorpe ranked so high, he seems to best fit the ZiPS-type profile. At one time he was more the high-upside prospect you would dream on, but his consistent results, high strikeout rates, and proximity to the majors (where of course he’s already pitched) make him very projectable as well. He’s a perfect case of a prospect who may actually lose some of their prospect shimmer by having already debuted. It’s easy to see his 6.18 ERA in Minnesota (27.2 IP) and come away unimpressed, but his 3.47 FIP paints a brighter picture (and projection). ZiPS keeps the surprises coming with the most aggressive Jordan Balazovic ranking you’ll find anywhere, who at 24 is the top Twins prospect (Interestingly, Duran doesn’t make the cut). Though unexpected, the aggressive ranking is not unfounded as Balazovic seems a safe bet to remain a starter and is arguably Minnesota’s top pitching prospect. If he continues to pitch as he has and builds innings in 2020, ZiPS won’t be alone in ranking Balazovic so favorably. Finally, had he stayed in Minnesota, Brusdar Graterol would’ve rounded out the ZiPS top-five. The ZiPS ranking is closer to where he sits on most top-100 lists, and it makes sense that ZiPS might be higher on Graterol by being unaware of his projected 2020 bullpen role. What do you think of the lists? Do you lean more towards upside and high ceiling or proximity and a solid floor? Finally, is a projection system like ZiPS worthwhile for ranking prospects? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Chalmers fascinates me as well. If he can't harness his control I could definitely see him as another high-velo reliever. He certainly fits the same kind of profile as the others.

Yeah, thanks - that was exactly my thinking. I like Balazovic the best of the bunch but was just going for guys who remind me of Graterol and mirror the same possible outcomes.

There are really three ways to view the recently-departed Brusdar Graterol. The optimistic view is that his electric stuff combined with his young age will propel him to the front of the rotation. The more pessimistic view is his lack of a third pitch and injury history relegate him to a bullpen role. And then there’s uncertainty. Today we’ll look at three Twins prospects who share some similarities with Graterol.Leaning towards the rotation Although Minnesota had announced that Graterol would likely start 2020 in a relief role and the Los Angeles Dodgers are almost certain to do the same, it’s probably still too early to rule out a future starting role for the 21-year-old. Prior to his shoulder injury in 2019, Graterol was lights out as a starter in AA, and his four-seam fastball, sinker, and slider looked like a filthy mix in Minnesota. As a reliever, Graterol scrapped his changeup, which he will likely need to succeed as a starter, but his young age suggests he may have time to develop the pitch. This brings us to our first Graterol comp: Jhoan Duran. The 6’5’’ 230lb righty is starting to appear on top-100 prospect lists and even passed his former teammate on Fangraphs' recent list, where Duran comes in at 63 and Graterol falls all the way to 113. Like Graterol, Duran can bring the heat, as FanGraphs has him sitting 96-99 and topping out at 102. Duran also features a good breaking ball and importantly his changeup and command rate higher than Graterol’s, which bodes well for his future outlook as a starter. Along with Jordan Balazovic, Duran looks like Minnesota’s best bet to become a middle-to-front end starter in the next few years. Somewhere in-between Another prospect who frequently invites Graterol comparisons, is 22-year-old Edwar Colina. Although shorter than Graterol, Colina has a similarly stocky build and has hit triple digits on the radar gun. Colina spent most of 2019 between High-A and Double-A as a starter and the results were very promising. His very good 2.34 ERA at Fort Meyers went all the way down to 2.03 in AA-Pensacola along with 10.74 K/9. This will sound familiar: Colina’s chances of remaining a starter are hinged on his ability to develop his changeup. His changeup is not well regarded and he finished 2019 in the bullpen, but he should get more opportunities to start in 2020. Destined for the ‘pen When the Twins acquired Jorge Alcala from the Houston Astros as part of the Ryan Pressley trade, there was some hope that Alcala could remain a starter. However, after struggling as a starter in AA during the first-half of 2019, Alcala transitioned to the bullpen. His fastball gained some velocity and sat 94-97 and combined nicely with his power slider. Control has been an issue for Alcala and his ability to improve in this area will likely be the difference between being a late-inning set-up guy or a middling reliever. Alcala pitched well in a small sample size after his promotion to AAA and earned a small cup of coffee with the Twins in September. Who will we see in Minnesota? All three of our Graterol comps have at least some chance of sniffing big-league action in 2020. Alcala already had a small sip of coffee with the Twins last September and is on the 40-man roster. Minnesota does have quite a bit of bullpen depth, but removing Graterol makes Alcala one step closer. Colina is not on the 40-man, so that’s an extra hurdle to jump, but he was on a similar path to Graterol and Alcala last season as he finished the year in Rochester’s bullpen. Had he pitched better in AAA, it’s not inconceivable that he could have switched places with Alcala. Duran has been added to the 40-man, but is likely the furthest away of the group. As a starter, his development could take a bit longer and the Twins have quite a bit of starting pitching depth. However, a Graterol-like late-season shift to the ‘pen is also a possibility. Who do you expect to see in 2020 and in what role? What kind of long-term impact do you think the three young prospects will have for Minnesota? Please share your thoughts and leave your comments below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Although it likely did not materialize exactly as it was drawn up, Minnesota has done a nice job of adding quality starting pitching to greatly increase the depth of the rotation. The possibility of having more starters than rotation spots is an unfamiliar but welcome problem for the Twins. If and when the majority of their options are healthy and pitching well, might Minnesota consider a six-man rotation?Generally speaking, it’s obviously ideal to have your best pitchers pitching as often as possible (i.e. once every five days), but the group of starters Minnesota has could make a six-man rotation viable for several reasons. Age, injury history, durability and similar individual talent levels make the possibility of going with six starters at least somewhat feasible. If there is a “work horse” in the current group of Twins starters, Jose Berrios would be the guy. However, while Berrios is still only 25-years-old and pitched 200 innings last year, getting some additional rest throughout the season might help him to avoid his annual August slump (5.96 career ERA) and general second-half decline. Odorizzi and Maeda come up short of Berrios’s overall innings totals in part due to their struggles with the third time through the order, along with high pitch totals in Odorizzi’s case and being moved to the bullpen in Maeda’s. However, Maeda’s lackluster second-half numbers are undoubtably part of the explanation for his late-season bullpen stints in LA, as his career second-half ERA is 4.44 compared to 3.51 in the first-half (and it’s actually worse when you consider that his second-half ERA includes the relief innings, which have been good). Additional rest might help to mitigate both Berrios and Maeda’s second-half woes. Pineda, Bailey, and Hill’s careers have been filled with injuries and it seems the three of them could definitely benefit from the additional rest provided in a six-man rotation for at least part of the season. The Twins utilized a couple of injured list stints to keep Pineda fresh last season, and it seemed to work wonders as he was pitching his best ball prior to his season-ending suspension. Hill pitched just 58 2/3 innings in 2019, and as someone who has excelled in the postseason, a six-man rotation could help to keep him fresh for October. Bailey’s 163 1/3 innings in 2019 were his most since 2013, so keeping his innings down a bit could help to keep him healthy as well. Due to Pineda’s suspension and Hill’s offseason elbow surgery, in addition to early season off days and inclement weather, there’s no reason to start the season with six starters. However, assuming a rotation of Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda, Bailey, and one of Jhoulys Chacin, Randy Dobnak, or Lewis Thorpe to start the season, the Twins will have a decision to make once Pineda becomes available in May. Injury or ineffectiveness could make the decision an easy one, but for the sake of argument, assume the fourth and fifth starters are pitching well. Even if Bailey fails to match his late 2019 success with the splitter, he will likely be given some leash due to his $7 million contract. And, if say Dobnak were to get the fifth-starter job out of spring training and pitch like he did last year, it would be hard to demote him to AAA. Then of course, Rich Hill is set to come back in June. Due to his advanced age and the uncertainty of his recovery, the Twins could bring him along slowly, but if he pitches like the Rich Hill we know and love, he’ll be in the rotation. Again, we’re looking at June as a best-case scenario, and a lot can happen between Opening Day and June, but it’s not that much time, nor is it too much of a stretch for the Twins to have five starters who are pitching well at that point. The other consideration is the overall talent level of the group. Last season there were periods during the season when Berrios, Odorizzi, and Pineda stepped forward and each looked like the team ace. Hill and Maeda are in the same general talent level and Bailey looked much improved after increasing his splitter usage with the Oakland A’s. Dobnak’s numbers were amazing both before and after being called up and Chacin was a good pitcher in 2017 and 2018. It’s not that much of a stretch to imagine that six of that group (or Thorpe) could be pitching well simultaneously and be deserving of a rotation spot. It’s also completely possible that injury and/or ineffectiveness rear their ugly heads and make, in hindsight, the idea of a six-man rotation utterly ridiculous. However, if the Twins do end up with a healthy stable of starters fairly early in the season, switching to a six-man rotation could help to preserve the rotation’s health and effectiveness as the season wears on. Manager Rocco Baldelli has been big on rest, and extending that philosophy to the rotation could prove prudent. What do you think? Will we see a six-man rotation at any point in 2020? Please leave your comments below. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

In a busy offseason full of action, drama, and surprises across the MLB, the Minnesota Twins remained in the fold by finally finding a way to bring in starter Kenta Maeda. Maeda looks to be the final addition to last year’s 101-win team, and like the other new faces who will join him in Minnesota, he brings not just talent, but postseason experience.Naturally, all of the new players the Twins brought in are here because of their talent and the ability to make Minnesota better in 2020. However, the majority of the newcomers bring ample October experience along with great overall numbers. This is certainly not an accident, as last year’s team that was swept by New York in the ALDS was just getting its feet wet, and outside of a few veterans like Nelson Cruz and Sergio Romo, the team had very little experience beyond the regular season. All that has changed with this offseason as the Twins have brought in plenty of veterans with playoff experience on both sides of the ball. Today we’ll take a closer look at each newcomer’s past postseason numbers and the extent of experience Minnesota has brought in. Pitchers: Download attachment: Postseason pitcher chart photo.png The amount of experience may vary, but the numbers are really impressive across the board. Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda have toed the mound in each of the last four postseasons for the Los Angeles Dodgers, including two World Series. Hill put up great numbers over 12 starts, while Maeda was used mainly out of the pen, making his three starts back in 2016. However, Maeda has been nasty as a reliever (2019: 4.1 IP, 1 hit, 7 SO, no walks), so the Twins can use him as they see fit (though he wants to start). Reliever Tyler Clippard and starter Homer Baily don’t have Hill or Maeda’s workload, but both have pitched well in October. Clippard leads the group with a 0.43 Win Probability Added (WPA) and while we have to go back to 2012 for Bailey’s last postseason start, it was a good one (7 IP, 1 hit, 1 ER, 10 SO). Overall, the new pitchers give the Twins over 100 innings of postseason ball and along with Sergio Romo, provide the Twins plenty of experience on the big stage. Batters: Download attachment: Postseason hitter chart photo.png If the Twins had stood pat and done nothing, the offense would still be a force this year. But by bringing in Josh Donaldson and essentially replacing CJ Cron with Miguel Sano, Minnesota showed they’re all in. Donaldson’s ability to dominate on both sides of the ball is the reason he’s here, but his passion for the game and his extensive postseason experience will be extremely valuable as well. Donaldson is no stranger to October, as he leads the group with seven postseasons and has had some really good series. Alex Avila’s numbers in the postseason don’t impress, but as Garver’s backup he’s unlikely to play much anyway. However, he’s been around the game for a longtime and comes from a baseball family, so he could be a valuable asset in the form of a mentor for the less-experienced Garver. The addition of two experienced hitters should fit nicely with last year’s lineup, which with the exception of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez had very little postseason experience. 2019’s experience should undoubtably help the younger core of Sano, Garver, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, and Arraez, but having a few more veterans around who have been through the ups and downs of playing in October is invaluable. Again, adding talented and impactful players is the important takeaway from the offseason and the front office should be given much credit for strengthening an already good ball club. Although getting swept by the Yankees hurt, being there mattered immensely for the younger players and adding postseason-hardened veterans should help to get the Twins over the hump this year. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

As for sandwiches... Odorizzi is between Joe Musgrove and Andrew Heaney and just behind Bumgarner but ahead of Stroman. Maeda is sandwiched by Lance Lynn and Lance McCullers and just ahead of Ohtoni and Archer. Pineda is between Jose Quintana and Domingo German, while Dobnak is Nate Pearson/Dakota Hudson. Some delicious names!

Yeah, you're correct - the Twins do rank higher. This list only goes to 175 but the Twins have 6) Hill - 118, 7) Bailey - 125, 8) Smeltzer - 154, 9) Chacin - 171, while Cleveland has just Plutko at 161 and Chicago has Gonzalez at 157. Even without Maeda the Twins have the best depth by far (we also have Thorpe), but Cleveland does have a knack for bringing up unknown pitchers who outperform expectations.

I'm attempting to write the trade into fruition ! In actuality, I started writing this before Maeda and then finished it before the Graterol stuff broke. Hill was originally in the #5 spot.

There’s just something about rankings that makes them so enticing. Whether it be prospect rankings, power rankings, or all-time greats, I always find myself enthralled. Today we’ll use individual starting pitching rankings to see how the Minnesota Twins stack up against their biggest division foes – Cleveland and Chicago.Over at the Athletic, Eno Sarris recently released 2020 starting pitching rankings, mainly for fantasy purposes. But the nice thing about his rankings is that he used a nice mix of criteria. He combined stuff ratings from Driveline Baseball, command numbers from STATS Perform, and projections from ATC, which is basically a composite of the best projection systems. We’ll use these rankings to break down the rotations, starting from the “aces” and working our way down to the #5’s. The Aces 8) Shane Beiber – CLE – 214.1 IP, 3.28 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 25.5% K-BB%, 5.6 fWAR 23) Jose Berrios – MN – 200.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 17.1% K-BB%, 4.4 fWAR 29) Lucas Giolito – CWS – 176.2 IP, 3.41 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 24.2% K-BB%, 5.1 fWAR The only question here was whether Shane Beiber or teammate Mike Clevinger would come first. Giolito’s 2019 numbers were better than Berrios’s across the board, but it was a breakout year and Berrios possesses the stronger track record. Berrios is sandwiched by Zack Greinke and Zach Wheeler in the rankings. The Second Fiddles 9) Mike Clevinger – CLE – 126.0 IP, 2.71 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 26.5% K-BB%, 4.5 fWAR 47) Jake Odorizzi – MN – 159.0 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 19.0% K-BB%, 4.3 fWAR 61) Dallas Keuchel – CWS – 112.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 10.7% K-BB%, 0.8 fWAR First off, Clevinger clearly belongs in the “aces” group and is arguably the division’s best starter. Odorizzi lacks the innings of Berrios, but otherwise his 2019 numbers actually beat his rotation mate’s. His 47th overall ranking put him in steady #2 territory. Keuchel has name recognition, but the 32-year-old’s 4.72 FIP screams for regression and he’s stretching it as a #2. Good Things Come in Threes 28) Carlos Carrasco – CLE – 80.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 23.5% K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR 54) Kenta Maeda – MN – 153.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 18.9% K-BB%, 2.5 fWAR 71) Dylan Cease – CWS – 73.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 14.1% K-BB%, 0.7 fWAR Cleveland really has the top three covered, as Carrasco’s ranking would technically make him a #1 as well. However, there is plenty of uncertainly in this group. Carrasco battled leukemia during the 2019 season, but he put up 5.2 and 5.4 fWAR in his previous two seasons, so the potential is there. Maeda's ranking suggests he’s somewhere between being a #2 and #3 starter. It is yet to be seen how his results will translate to pitching in the American League for the first time, but he undoubtably strengthens Minnesota’s rotation. Dylan Cease is young, but he throws really hard and Chicago hopes he will put it all together in his second season. May the Fours Be with You 76) Michael Kopech – CWS – Missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery 78) Aaron Civale – CLE – 57.2 IP, 2.34 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 13.2% K-BB%, 1.5 fWAR 88) Michael Pineda – MN – 146.0 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 18.7% K-BB%, 2.7 fWAR Michael Kopech will probably begin the season in AAA as he makes his way back from Tommy John, but the top prospect should be able to find a way into the rotation sooner rather than later. Aaron Civale was a pleasant surprise in Cleveland with better-than-expected results in his first MLB stint. Pineda gives the Twins a really solid #4. He finished strong prior to his suspension, and the time he will miss to begin this season undoubtedly knocked him down a few pegs. Five Alive 104) Randy Dobnak – MN – 28.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 15.3% K-BB%, 0.8 fWAR 127) Zach Plesac – CLE – 115.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 10.1% K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR 131) Reynaldo Lopez – CWS – 184.0 IP, 5.38 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 12.9% K-BB%, 2.3 fWAR Unfortunately for Dobnak, the recent acquisitions of Maeda and Jhoulys Chacin greatly reduce the odds that he makes the opening day rotation. Still, he was great in his handful of MLB outings in 2019 and gives Minnesota invaluable depth. Like Civale, Plesac also exceeded expectations for the Tribe in 2019, but his secondary numbers suggest regression. Lopez is more of an innings eater at this point, as he has yet to really put it all together for the Sox. Additional Notes: - Cleveland’s rotation looks good, but it is worth noting that they traded away both the 27th and 32nd ranked pitchers in Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer. - Rich Hill will certainly be one of Minnesota’s top starters if he comes back healthy, but due to the missed time and uncertainty he comes in at 118. - Homer Bailey ranked 125th and seems destined to open the season in the rotation, but his status will be uncertain once Pineda and Hill return. He makes seven Twins pitchers in the top 125. - Other Twins pitchers who made the list were Devin Smeltzer at 154 and the recently-acquired Jhoulys Chacin (who has a good chance of temporarily grabbing the #5 slot) at 171. - Chicago’s Gio Gonzalez came in at 157 and will likely take Kopech’s rotation spot to begin 2020. - Detriot’s pitching future looks promising. Matthew Boyd appears 41st, followed by Spencer Turnbull (70), prospects Matt Manning (113) and Casey Mize (121), and finally Daniel Norris (152). They also have a third top-50 caliber pitching prospect in LHP Tarik Skubal. With the addition of Maeda and the amount of pitching depth the Twins have, coupled with strong bullpen and superlative offense, things are looking good for 2020. How do you feel the Twins rotation stacks up? Please leave your comments below. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS Projections for the 2020 Minnesota Twins was released a few weeks ago at FanGraphs and today we’ll take a look at the player comparisons. Along with statistical predictions for each player’s 2020 season, ZiPS lists a player whose career and statistics most closely mirror the current player. The comparisons should mainly be viewed as entertainment.I now present you with the player comparisons for the starting nine of the 2020 Minnesota Twins (in no particular order): Miguel Sano – Jay Buhner (1987 – 2001, 22.3 fWAR) Wait a minute…wasn’t Buhner a right fielder? The Twins aren’t thinking of…? Don’t panic! When Sano jogs out of the dugout he’ll be sure to stop at first base. Not all player comps are a match positionally. However, having spent countless hours of my youth with Buhner’s Seattle Mariners while playing La Russa Baseball on my Sega Genesis, I can confirm that Buhner wasn’t much better than Sano in right. His feet seemed to be stuck in quicksand, but if he ever got to the ball he could fling it with the best of ‘em. Those were the days, but I digress. What we’re interested in here is the offense and I think the comparison is quite apt. Buhner was no stranger to the long ball, as he hit 40 or more home runs in three straight seasons from 1995-1997. He also took more than his fair share of walks, twice led the league in strikeouts, and battled injuries throughout his career. Josh Donaldson – Ron Santo (1960 – 1974, 70.9 fWAR) The further along a player is in his career, the easier it is to find an appropriate comparison, and Ron Santo seems like a good fit for Josh Donaldson. Both play third base and are great on both sides of the ball. Santo is a Hall of Famer and nine-time All-Star, while Donaldson has an MVP and has made three All-Star Game appearances. Santo burst onto the scene as a 20-year-old while Donaldson was more of a late bloomer, but Santo played his last game as a 34-year-old, which is Donaldson’s current age. Max Kepler – Trot Nixon (1996 – 2008, 22.4 fWAR) Like Kepler, Trot Nixon spent most of his career playing right field, but he did spend limited time in center during his peak. Nixon hit for a career 115 wRC+, while Kepler currently sits at 102 wRC+ for his career. But Kepler premiered at a younger age than Nixon and Kepler’s 4.4 fWAR in 2019 was topped only once by Nixon. While Nixon had a fine career, he had his last good season as a 31-year-old, so Kepler will certainly hope to have more longevity. Jorge Polanco – Jorge Orta (1972 – 1987, 12.1 fWAR) They got the name right! I don’t think anybody lauds Jorge Polanco as a great defender but he clearly brings more value than his first-name mate. Orta played all over, but mainly second base, right field and DH (his DH status should tell you he wasn’t highly regarded as a defender). He was a two-time All-Star and his 107 wRC+ perfectly matches Jorge Polanco’s thus far, but Polanco clearly has more upside. His 4.0 fWAR is 2019 tops any of Orta’s career and even if Polanco doesn’t stick at short long-term he will bring more defensive value than Orta. Luis Arraez – Dustin Pedroia (2006 – present, 46.6 fWAR) This is a fun comp. Both players debuted as 22-year-olds (though Pedroia had only 98 plate appearances), are small in stature, and walk about as much as they strike out. Arraez has the potential to be the better offense force, as his 125 wRC+ as a rookie tops Pedroia’s career 115 wRC+. However, if Arraez hopes to have a “Pedroia-like” career, his bat will have to carry him, as Pedroia is the superior defender at second base. Nelson Cruz – Fred McGriff (1986 – 2004, 56.9 fWAR) The Crime Dog makes an appearance! McGriff got off to a faster start than Cruz, but as you’d expect, their careers are strikingly similar. Both players have accumulated three Silver Slugger awards, while Cruz edges McGriff out in All-Star appearances, 6-5. McGriff has a 134 wRC+ while Cruz sits at 132 wRC+. McGriff has the edge in career home runs at 493, while Cruz has 401. Both will have finished with great careers that will likely keep them just short of the Hall of Fame. Byron Buxton – Devon White (1985 -2001, 41.8 fWAR) No Mike Trout? Devon White will do. White was a great defensive center fielder who had a great three-year stretch (’91-’93) for the Toronto Blue Jays when he put up 6.4, 5.9, and 5.4 fWAR respectively. White topped Buxton’s 111 wRC+ of 2019 only once in his career and Buxton can play center as well as anyone, so the potential for more is there with Buxton, but he must, of course, stay healthy. Eddie Rosario – Garret Anderson (1994 – 2010, 24 fWAR) Garret Anderson was about as walk-averse as Eddie Rosario, as he had just a 4.7% career walk-rate (Rosario is at 4.4%). And like Rosario, he brought some pop to the lineup, hitting 28 or more home runs four times in his career and twice leading the league in doubles. When all was said and done, Anderson was about a league-average hitter and a below-average defender, which is similar to what Rosario has been. Mitch Garver – Steve Yeager (1972 – 1986, 18.5 fWAR) This is my least favorite comparison (though I don’t love Polanco’s either). Part of it is due to the fact that I know very little about Steve Yeager. After I bit of research I have learned that he was a good defensive catcher, below average offensively, and had some really nice sideburns. Garver’s short career combined with his breakout in 2019 makes finding a good comparative player quite the challenge, but Garver’s 2019 topped any season in Yeager’s career and their strengths are inverted. Short of Garver reporting to Fort Meyers with some jaunty mutton chops, I just don’t see this one. Some final food for thought: Nick Gordon – Ron Gardenhire (1981 – 1985, 0.9 fWAR) I didn’t make this up! Which player comparisons do you find most compelling? Would you be happy to see this current group of players finish with comparable careers to their comps? Will Nick Gordon make a great manager? Please leave your comments below. More ZiPS-related fun from Twins Daily: Three Twins Takeaways from ZIPS and Steamer Projections – Matthew Lenz MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Royals 1, Giants 0. Mahomes goes the distance with a complete game shut out.

It’s no secret that the 2019 Minnesota Twins were very good at hitting home runs. Predicting just how many the Bomba Squad will hit in 2020 is tricky due to the ambiguity surrounding the ball (Twins Daily’s Andrew Thares gives his predictions here), but by looking at MLB Statcast’s Barrel Percentages we can get a good idea of what kind of power potential the Twins have.According to MLB Statcast, “The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.” Keep in mind that those batting average and slugging percentage results are the minimum, so barreling the ball is a very good thing to do if you are hitter. Download attachment: Barrel Zone pic.png Barrels are essentially balls that are hit very hard (minimum of 98 mph) in combination with good angles (26-30 mph on balls hit 98 mph, but the angle range increases with velocity). Intuitively, it makes sense that hitting the ball hard at optimal angles would lead to good power, and that has been the case, as barrels correlate well with power numbers such as HR/FB%. With this in mind, it’s not surprising to find some of Minnesota’s 2019 sluggers atop the barrels (Brls/PA) leaderboard, but we also find a few new Twins among the leaders. Let’s take a look at the Twins and see who are good bets to slug Minnesota through 2020. The Sluggers 1) Nelson Cruz – 12.5% Brls/PA, 93.7 mph EV, 13.1° LA, 51.5% Hard Hit It’s really no surprise to find Nelson Cruz leading the Twins in barrels, but it is quite impressive that the 39-year-old led all of baseball. The results were there for all to see, as Cruz hit a team-leading 41 home runs in 2019. He was also third in average exit velocity and fifth in hard hit percentage (95 mph+) so Cruz has a lot going for him. If Cruz’s wrist holds up, he seems a good bet to continue in his defiance of Father Time. 6) Miguel Sano – 10.7% Brls/PA, 94.4 mph EV, 15.9° LA, 57.2% Hard Hit While it’s not all that surprising to see Cruz at number one, some may be taken aback at just how high his understudy, Miguel Sano, comes in. Sano trailed only Aaron Judge in average exit velocity and led the league in hard hit percentage. Sano was no stranger to the long ball in 2019 as he hit 34 in just 439 plate appearances. A healthy Sano should put up big power numbers in 2020. 12) Mitch Garver – 9.7% Brls/PA, 91.1 mph EV, 15.3° LA, 50.0% Hard Hit Mitch Garver’s short and compact swing brought loads of power into his breakout season. After putting up a .995 OPS as a catcher in 2019, it is only natural to expect some regression from Garver. However, his ability to hit the ball hard with a good launch angle bodes well for Garver’s future as a slugger. Hitting 31 home runs in 359 plate appearances was absurd, but his Statcast numbers show that his power should continue to play this season. 17) Josh Donaldson – 9.4% Brls/PA, 92.9 mph EV, 13.3° LA, 50.0% Hard Hit A healthy Josh Donaldson showed what he can do in 2019, as he hit 37 dingers for the Atlanta Braves while his exit velocity ranked seventh in the MLB. His great glove at third will undoubtably improve the infield defense, but his patience and power at the plate will be an invaluable asset as well. Signed for the next four seasons and already 34-years-old, the Twins hope Donaldson will age as gracefully as his new teammate, Nelson Cruz. His Statcast numbers suggest his bat isn’t going away anytime soon. The Next Tier The 2020 Minnesota Twins will feature four additional hitters who were above average in barrels (Brls) last season. 24) Alex Avila – 9.0% Brls/PA, 91.4 mph EV, 9.4° LA, 49.0% Hard Hit 90) Jake Cave – 7.4% Brls/PA, 90.5 mph EV, 7.4° LA, 43.8% Hard Hit 92) Eddie Rosario – 6.9% Brls/PA, 89.1 mph EV, 16.7° LA, 36.0% Hard Hit 122) Max Kepler – 6.4% Brls/PA, 89.7 mph EV, 18.2° LA, 41.7% Hard Hit It’s surprising to see newly-acquired backup catcher, Alex Avila ranked so high. While his exit velocity and hard-hit percentage are really good, his launch angle is below where it needs to be to hit loads of homers. Nonetheless, coupled with his ability to take walks he’s just fine for a backup catcher. Fourth outfielder Jake Cave is in a similar boat, as he hits the ball hard with an even lower launch angle. If he gets under the ball a bit more, he could see an uptick in home runs, but his playing time will likely be limited. The final pairing of outfielders Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler don’t quite bring the punch of Avila or Cave, but their ability to launch the ball is what fuels their power numbers. The duo combined for 68 dingers in 2019 with Kepler adding 16 long balls to his 2018 total. Both Rosario and Kepler’s average home run distance is below the first group of sluggers, so they may be more affected by potential ball changes, but should still be good bets to hit for plenty of power in 2020. So, there you have it. While repeating 307 home runs is probably overly optimistic, Twins hitters do have the underlying skills to expect big power numbers this season. Regardless of ball changes, Cruz, Sano, Garver, and Donaldson should continue to crush the ball and their supporting cast isn’t too shabby either. Brace yourselves for another bomba-filled thrill ride! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Short of the Twins acquiring another starter, Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe will be battling alongside Devin Smeltzer for the final two slots in the rotation. How long those spots will be held remains to be seen, but today we will take a dive into the numbers of Dobnak and Thorpe and predict who will have the bigger impact in 2020.The two young hurlers provide an interesting juxtaposition. Thorpe is an international signing from Australia that has graced Twins prospects lists as he’s worked his way through the system. Dobnak on the other hand was an undrafted Uber driver who seemed to come out of nowhere. Thorpe is a swing and miss FIP-god who is easy to dream on, while Dobnak’s rather stunning 1.59 MLB ERA screams for regression. They don’t even throw with the same arm (Thorpe is a southpaw). However, both will be looking to make their way into Minnesota’s rotation due to Michael Pineda’s suspension and Rich Hill’s experimental arm surgery. Let’s take a look at who we should expect more from this year. We’ll start by looking at some traditional stats and then dive into MLB Statcast numbers. Download attachment: Dobnak Thorpe FIP table pic.png Before we get too far, it must be said that both pitchers' MLB numbers are based on a small sample size, but they’re all we’ve got, and they do trend pretty well with how both pitchers performed in the minors in 2019. Although Dobnak’s FIP doesn’t quite match his sterling ERA, it’s still excellent at 2.90. While Dobnak doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts (RDLARK has a great blogpost explaining how that may change), he also doesn’t walk anyone and gets a ton of ground balls (52.9%). Since joining the Twins organization in 2017 his numbers have been consistently solid across all levels and he may be one of those guys who out- performs his FIP. It’s also worth noting that ZiPs projects Dobnak to be the team’s fourth-best starter based on ERA and FIP, trailing just Rich Hill, Jose Berrios, and Jake Odorizzi, and ahead of Michael Pineda and Homer Bailey. Thorpe was basically the anti-Dobnak in 2019. Thorpe gets a ton of strikeouts but he was also hurt by giving out a lot of free passes. Absurdly, Dobnak gave up only one home run between AAA and MLB (though he did give up six in AA), while Thorpe surrendered 16 dingers in less innings. Thorpe’s FIP greatly outperformed his ERA at both levels and he allowed a .438 BABIP with the Twins, so there is reason to believe his numbers will improve. Let’s dig a little deeper and get into the pitch mixes: Dobnak: Download attachment: Dobnak Statcast table pic.png Thorpe: Download attachment: Thorpe Statcast Table pic.png Both Thorpe and Dobnak throw a four-seam fastball with less than stellar spin rates (Thorpe’s is in just the seventh percentile). Dobnak’s heater beats Thorpe’s by a few ticks, but neither pitcher is going to blow anyone away. Dobnak’s results were really good, although his xwOBA suggests some regression, while Thorpe’s heater didn’t fare well, but he did get more swings and misses. The main difference is that Dobnak doesn’t need to rely on his four seamer as much as Thorpe because he throws his highly-effective sinker more frequently, leading to his high ground ball rate. With an underwhelming four seamer, Thorpe is going to need to rely on his secondary pitches if he hopes to succeed as a starter. Thorpe features three secondary pitches (slider, curve, and changeup), but his slider was his only above average pitch. Fortunately, Thorpe’s slider is really good and it gives him a solid floor as a lefty reliever. But to succeed as a starter, Thorpe must find a way to get better results from his other secondary pitches. In an admittedly small sample size, both his curve and changeup (which he mixes in against righties) were crushed. His xwOBA on the curve suggests it might not have been quite so bad and he did get a fair number of whiffs on his changeup, but there’s no denying the numbers were ugly. Dobnak’s secondary pitches fared much better than Thorpe’s. His slider is unlike Thorpe’s, as it is more 12 to 6 than sweeping (Statcast identifies it as a curve), but like his teammate, he gets great results (Dobnak’s whiff % is even higher than Thorpe’s). Dobnak’s other secondary pitch is his changeup, which he mostly mixes in against left-handed hitting. Again, it’s a small sample size, but hitters did next to nothing against it. Dobnak also had the 10th-lowest barrels/plate appearance rate of all MLB pitchers at just 1.7% (all pitches). It’s obviously too early to give up on Thorpe and also too early to declare Dobnak a success, but Dobnak has given us more reason to believe thus far. Although Dobnak doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of Thorpe, he’s succeeded at every level and looked anything but overwhelmed in his first big league stint. If things go as planned, both could eventually be pushed out of the rotation by Pineda and Hill, but they should get every chance to show what they can do in 2020. Finding a way to mix two more quality starters into the rotation is a problem Minnesota would count itself fortunate to have. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I agree with your sentiment and we've already seen that happen with guys like Arraez, plus guys like Dobnak and Smeltzer who were better than expected last year. The system the Twins have in place and the fact that Falvey comes from and is responsible for some of that pitching success in Cleveland bodes well for future Minnesota rotations.

The Twins also have Balazovic and Duran who both made Baseball America's top 100 that was just released. But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the less heralded college pitching prospects like Cole Sands or Matt Canterino make a future rotation. I do think the FO has put a good system in place and I expect the Twins will have success in developing starters.

In reading Jim Bowden’s top-50 prospect rankings at the Athletic, one thing really popped out at me. Of the 50 top prospects, 12 of them came from the AL Central. Given the lack of great teams and abundance of high draft picks, I guess it shouldn’t be that surprising, but that gives AL Central teams about a quarter of the top prospects while representing just 1/6th of baseball.Now, it’s just one list and it definitely differs from some of the other national prospect listings while seeming to favor prospects who are closer to MLB-ready. But the sheer amount of talent that will be premiering in the next year or two will certainly make the AL Central a fun division to watch. Let’s break it down team by team and see where the Twins sit. Not surprisingly, the Chicago White Sox led the list with four top-50 prospects: 1) Luis Robert / CF / Age 22 - .328/.376/.624 (A+, AA, AAA) 11) Michael Kopech / RHP / Age 23 (missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery) 14) Nick Madrigal / 2B / Age 22 - .311/.377/.414 (A+, AA, AAA) 35) Andrew Vaughn / 1B / Age 21 - .278/.384/.449 (Rk, A, A+) This is an impressive group, especially when you consider that the Sox already have young, star-caliber players like Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez on the MLB roster. Bowden is a bit higher than most prospect lists on these guys, but there’s no denying that Chicago has the making of an exciting young core. Robert will likely open the season as the Sox center fielder after signing a long-term extension and Madrigal isn’t far behind. Kopech, who missed last year with Tommy John surgery, should be ready to join the Sox rotation sometime in 2020, while Vaughn could potentially debut in 2021. Next up are our very own Minnesota Twins with three representatives: 12) Alex Kirilloff / OF/1B / Age 22 - .283/.343/.413 (AA) 18) Royce Lewis / SS / Age 20 - .236/.290/.371 (A+, AA) 48) Brusdar Graterol /RHP/ Age 21 – 1.91 ERA, 61 IP, 61 SO, 21 BB (Rk, AA, AAA) Both Kirilloff's and Lewis’s numbers were below what we’d like to see in 2019 but the talent is there. Plus, Lewis’s Arizona Fall League MVP and Kirilloff’s hot finish in the AA playoffs (4 HRs in 4 games) helped ease any doubts about 2019. It’s interesting to see Kirilloff ranked ahead of Lewis but Bowden is a big believer in his bat, comparing Kirilloff to Christian Yelich. Kirilloff is closer to the big leagues than Lewis, but doesn’t currently have a spot and both players could use extra minor league seasoning. It will be exciting to see how the Twins use Graterol throughout 2020, but it looks like he will begin the season where he finished 2019 - in the bullpen. The Detroit Tigers bring the arms to the table with two exciting righties: 2) Casey Mize / RHP / Age 22 – 2.55 ERA, 109.1 IP, 106 SO, 23 BB (A+, AA) 42) Matt Manning / RHP / Age 21 – 2.56 ERA, 133.2 IP, 148 SO, 38 BB (AA) Mize was the #1 overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft and features a five-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, and splitter). While he is unlikely to begin the season in Detroit’s rotation, he should make his debut sometime his year. Manning, who appears higher on many prospect lists, put up really impressive numbers in AA, but may need a little more time to hone his control. If the Tigers hold on to Matthew Boyd, they could have a formidable 1-2-3 punch as early as next year. The Kansas City Royals have their own duo of high-upside youngsters: 10) Bobby Witt Jr. / SS / Age 19 - .262/.317/.354 (Rk) 47) Brady Singer / RHP / Age 23 – 2.85 ERA, 148.1 IP, 138 SO, 39 BB Witt Jr. projects to be a great defensive shortstop with a strong arm (thanks Dad!) who should hit for power. As a 2019 high school draft pick, his timeline is further out, but his natural ability could make him a fast riser. Royals fans shouldn’t have to wait too long to see Singer, who is likely to make his MLB debut this year. The righty has added an improved changeup to his fastball/slider mix, giving Kansas City hope for a front-end starter. Finally, the Cleveland Indians bring a bat: Nolan Jones/ 3B / Age 21 - .272/.409/.442 (A+, AA) Cleveland brings just one top-50 prospect , which is fine by me. Jones certainly knows how to get on base and offers some power to boot. He has a big arm and has improved defensively. Of course, Jose Ramirez is currently entrenched at third, but he could easily slide over to second whenever Jones is deemed ready for the big show. In addition to already having a really good team, Minnesota is well stocked for the future with plenty of other prospects in the top-100 range (Jordan Balazovic, Trevor Larnach, and Jhoan Duran to name a few). Chicago is certainly on the horizon and a busy offseason may have sped up the process. It's unlikely that all of these prospects will pan out, but the AL Central should have plenty of new talent filtering through in the years to come. Click here to view the article