Cody Pirkl

It’s been pointed out on the broadcast several times since Opening Day how Kenta Maeda just hasn’t looked “sharp”. He was certainly effective leading up to one of his worst starts of his career against Oakland while sporting a 3.07 ERA and 3.02 FIP paired with a near 10 K/9. That being said he just never really appeared to get on a dominant roll like we saw so many times in 2020. After seven earned runs in three innings, Maeda’s line tells the story of a different pitcher. His ERA rose to 6.11 with a 5.29 FIP and even xERA, his most positive indicator comes out to a 4.47. All of these indicators are far from what we expected to see this season. It’s easy to blame one bad start for Maeda’s inflated stats but there are serious concerns in this young season for perhaps the most important pitcher on this struggling Twins roster. Shaky Command: As we know, Maeda isn’t succeeding by way of the 95 mph fastball. In 2020 he used pinpoint command of his pitches to place them exactly where he wanted to pick batters apart. That does not appear to be the case so far in 2021 however. His command of the strike zone appears to be failing him, as his pitches left over the heart of the plate has increased to 28% after posting a 23.9% mark in 2020. https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1384963830686666755?s=20 Unsurprisingly, hitters are batting .486 and slugging .886 off of these mistakes Maeda has made more often so far this year. He simply can’t afford to leave so many pitchers in a hitter’s wheelhouse with a 90-91 mph fastball. It would be different if his offspeed pitches were as otherworldly as they were in 2020, but unfortunately… The Slider: Maeda’s nasty slider and the Twins were a match made in heaven from the day they acquired him from the Dodgers. In 2019, FanGraphs gave the pitch a pitch value of 19.8, one of the best in all of baseball. In 2020 the pitch fell off tremendously to 6.7 but was still plenty for Maeda to dominate opposing hitters. So far in 2021 the pitch has a pitch value -5.1. Maeda’s signature pitch has gone from his calling card to allowing a .382 batting average and .735 slugging %. So what happened? https://twitter.com/SPStreamer/status/1384972387016445956?s=20 It appears it all comes back to command for Maeda. He’s throwing his swing and miss pitch right down the middle as often as anyone in all of baseball. The end result is still a consistent whiff rate of almost 33% so far, but when contact is made, it’s loud. The league could have easily just scouted this flaw out after a year which would give a huge edge even to teams that didn’t see him in person in 2020. The Change Up: It’s possible many fans made the assumption that Maeda’s breakout was a result of the Twins overhauling his slider in 2020 but that wasn’t the case. Instead it was the best performance Maeda’s split change has had in his career. In 2020 the pitch had a career high value of 7.1, even higher than his slider. So far this year however the pitch has turned in a -1 rating and Maeda has dropped his usage of the dominant pitch from almost 30% to around 21%. What gives? For starters it’s worth noting that 2020 was the first year Maeda truly featured the pitch and baseball could have adjusted. This may be the reason the pitch has gone from a 45% whiff rate in 2020 to a 23.5% mark so far in 2021. That being said, the .300 BA allowed isn’t backed up by the .234 xBA on the pitch, nor is the .400 slugging % mirrored by the .305 xSLG. It’s also worth noting that both his vertical and horizontal break on the pitch have improved from 2020 levels so far. The change up’s struggles could be a result of sequencing given the failures of his slider or it could just be bad luck. Either way, it’d be nice to see Maeda bump the usage of the pitch back up. So where do we go from here? It’s probably likely Maeda isn’t the same pitcher over 162 as he was over 60 but the version we’ve seen so far has been a big disappointment. Maeda had the look of his 2020 self to begin Spring Training which should be reassuring that his dominance didn’t simply disappear at the turn of the year. There are adjustments for the 33 year old right hander to make. For all of the issues pitchers run into in their mid 30s, command would be a surprising one to drag Maeda down long term. For now it appears Maeda may just be missing some feel or possibly has a small tweak to make. I’d bet on Maeda righting the ship in the near future and returning to some form of dominance. Afterall, something has to go the Twins way sometime right? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

The Twins surprisingly went with Lewis Thorpe to start Friday’s series opener against the Angels over Randy Dobnak, who was already on the roster and would have been able to eat a few innings following the doubleheader. Thorpe faced a formidable Angels lineup even without Anthony Rendon. He struck out two and walked one in four innings of two-run ball. Without watching the game it’s easy to be unimpressed with such a line, but there were certainly reasons for encouragement. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1383240052461883401?s=20 For starters it’s worth noting that Thorpe’s current 4.50 ERA is misleading. He got BABIP’d to death in his start including a shift beating single to allow his two runs. His FIP instead sits at 2.91 and his xERA which takes Statcast into account sits at 0.97. Thorpe allowed a .130 xBA and .143 xSLG in his four innings. Sure it was only one start, but the lack of comfortable swings has to be encouraging after what Thorpe showed last season where he posted a 6.06 ERA before getting demoted. Speaking of last season, the number one takeaway from Thorpe’s first start was how he presented himself. 2020 something just seemed off as the left hander seemed to lack confidence despite his moderate success in 2019. Instead it was hard to say just by looking at Thorpe that he was making his debut or that he was attempting to raise the stock on his young career which had come crashing down so rapidly in one year. Confidence might be what separates Thorpe from a successful Major League pitcher and the pitcher we saw in 2020. Talent shouldn’t be the question for a young pitcher who in 2019 led all of AAA in K/9. It’ll be interesting to see how the Twins handle Thorpe moving forward. He’s surely in his last option year at this point but the Twins chose him over the newly-extended Randy Dobnak to make a spot start. Could Thorpe perhaps be the first in line for a rotation injury while Dobnak remains in the bullpen? Was this spot start for the lefty a one time deal? Let us know below. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

Andrelton Simmons has been a defensive wizard since he broke through to the MLB and has been considered by some to be the best defensive shortstop of the generation. His defense alone has him walking the tightrope to a Hall of Fame finish thus far in his career according to bWAR and fWAR measurements. It’s this reason the Twins brought the 31-year-old shortstop to Minnesota on a one year deal. After a shocking error in the first game of the season, Simmons has been as advertised with the glove. His baseball IQ is through the roof, his range and arm at shortstop are unlike anything Twins fans have ever seen as he’s proven several times already in this young season. https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1378786774919622662?s=20 There’s little doubt that Simmons’ presence will be made known defensively, but it’s the offense so far that should really be drawing eyes. Simmons has a slash line of .270/.318/.379 in his career, good for 9% below a league average hitter in that time according to wRC+. He perfectly fits the mould of a light hitting, slick fielding shortstop, perfect for a bottom of the order hitter on a team full of mashers. Through seven games, however, Simmons is on fire posting a .450/.577/.600 slash which is 129% above league average. He can’t and won’t keep producing at this level forever as evidenced by his absurd .600 batting average on balls in play. That being said, what Simmons is doing so far should be encouraging. His 2019 and 2020 have been hindered by ankle injuries and separate him from his 2017 and 2018 seasons, the former in which he finished eighth in MVP voting. In those seasons Simmons did little more than put up league average offense while his glove carried him to 5+ win seasons in both years (The last Twin to post 5+ fWAR was Brian Dozier in 2017). His health has kept him from doing so since. The Twins new shortstop may very well run into more injuries as he passes the age of 30, in fact there’s reason to believe this is likely. That being said, we may be looking at the first time Andrelton Simmons has been fully healthy since he received MVP votes three years ago which has a possibility to be the steal of the offseason for the Twins at $10.5m. Look for the Twins to continue to manage Simmons’ workload as we’ve seen with him already getting one off day through the season’s first seven games. Even if his range at short reduces with the normal wear and tear of the regular season, his instincts and arm should continue to be the main source of his value. Avoiding the big injury and therefore being able to hold his own offensively may elevate him to a level the Twins didn’t have in mind when they signed their stopgap shortstop. Could the Twins have picked up another name that we could possibly see receiving MVP votes by season’s end? Is Simmons’ offense so far just a complete mirage doomed to come crashing down? Let us know below. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

It’s worth remembering what kind of pitcher Alex Colomé is, and that’s one that pitches to weak contact. In 2020 Colomé had only a 17.8 K% but was in the top 25% of the league in hard hit % allowed. The reason this is noteworthy is that on Opening Day Colomé allowed an average exit velocity of only 85.3 mph. In terms of the skills that have made Colomé a superb reliever the last few years, everything looked fine. Perhaps the Twins would like to coax a few more strikeouts out of him to help escape some jams that come up, but in terms of stuff, Colomé was as advertised. The real issue was pretty pretty obvious, and that was the defense we saw in the ninth inning. https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1378391060901150732?s=20 I crack myself up. In all seriousness though these stats do tell a story. For as bad as Colomé appeared to be, it’s not like he gave up a homer like Hendricks did in his White Sox debut. He likely escapes unscathed with solid defense. It would of course be insincere not to mention that Colomé was his own worst enemy on defense, as he committed the costly error that cracked the door open for the Brewers to eventually kick down. Throwing to second base with a three-run lead, one out and a runner on first is more of a mental blunder than a physical one. Colomé being the seasoned closer he is just had a brain cramp. It wasn’t pretty but it’s doubtful that such a mistake is likely to become a trend with Colomé unlike giving up a bunch of loud contact which may foreshadow future issues for example. There was also a bit of bad luck involved in Colomé’s outing. I’m still not convinced the hit by pitch to Kolten Wong was worthy of awarding him first base. The ball clearly hit the knob of the bat in replay. Max Kepler also almost made a fantastic play on a ball with a 97% chance of being a hit which would have saved Colomé as well. It wasn’t an error on Max, but he did a great job of making it a catchable ball and couldn’t quite come up with it. All of this to say that no, Alex Colomé is not toast after one appearance in a Twins uniform. We should not trade him for whatever we can get. The Twins bullpen is not already a dumpster fire. A mental mistake and a series of bad breaks led to a very unfortunate meltdown on Opening Day. All signs at this time point to Colomé being just fine. We may all be on the edge of our seats in his next appearance, but Alex Colomé will absolutely play a big role in the 2021 Twins bullpen. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

Jake Cave’s selection to the Opening Day roster may have fans a bit surprised after a career worst 2020 in which he managed a .221/.285/.389 triple slash, good for 18% below league average. He just barely bested Brent Rooker’s spring numbers (.723 OPS vs .712), who many feel has the more exciting bat after his short showing in 2020. Garlick and Rooker in competition can be argued, but Jake Cave being one of the left fielders in the mix is the right choice at this time. Playing the Matchups: For as rough as 2020 was overall for Cave, he still held his own against right handed pitching by posting a .235/.303/.420 triple slash and was 4% below league average against right handed pitching. Hovering around league average against righties may not seem all that impressive, but being able to count on that production is actually pretty valuable. For example, Kyle Garlick has been 60% below league average against righties in his short career. Also take into account that 2020 was Cave’s worst year in those matchups by far. In his three seasons as a whole, he’s been 15% above league average against right handed pitching which is pretty incredible. Do we really think that Cave has declined this much against right handed pitching at the age of 28? Pairing Cave with Garlick can ensure that he avoids his number one weakness being left handed pitching. Plugging him in against only right handed pitching and mixing in Garlick against lefties can go a long way in replacing Eddie Rosario’s bat according to the numbers. https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1376635566473809925?s=20 Missing the Soft Stuff: Just about everyone from Jake Cave to Nelson Cruz hit the fastball better than breaking balls and offspeed pitches, but Cave’s performance against the latter in 2020 just didn’t make a lot of sense. https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1375857016464420865?s=20 Cave had two years of at least getting by before the bottom fell out in about 350 opportunities against these pitches in 2020. For reference, in 2019 Cave saw almost 900 breaking balls and offspeed pitches and performed much better against them. It’s far likelier that Cave was a small sample size victim than it is that he completely forgot how to hit the soft stuff at age 28. Few players can claim to hit these pitches well, but Cave could easily go back to at least scraping by against them in 2021 which would go a long way in a bounceback. Defensive Value: Defensive metrics are fluid and a little inconsistent, but it’s safe to say Cave has come a long way since his debut. https://twitter.com/CodyPirkl/status/1375851745977458693?s=20 Cave was always an athletic outfielder with good speed, but he made tons of mistakes in his debut season. What Statcast has noticed in his game across the last three seasons is impressive. His “jump” measures his reaction time on fly balls which was actually better than Byron Buxton’s in 2020 believe it or not. The result was him being in the top 15% of outfielders in “Outs Above Average” which measures how many extra outs a player's defense results in. It goes without saying that this kind of improvement doesn’t just happen. Cave has worked hard at his position and while that doesn’t mean anything in itself in the MLB, he’s become a great defensive outfielder. Even if his offense can’t fill the Rosario void, Cave’s ability to add value on defense could be higher than Eddie’s ever was. Nobody is arguing for Jake Cave to be a full on starter, but he’s one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball. For example, the White Sox would likely kill to have a left fielder of Cave’s caliber at this point. In all likelihood, the left field situation will be a platoon until Kirilloff can come up and show he can play everyday. Until then, Jake Cave’s defense and left handed bat are exactly what the Twins need. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

Spring training stats as a whole are pretty inconsequential, but Randy Dobnak has looked like an ace with his 18 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings while only allowing one run. Meanwhile Matt Shoemaker has been pummeled as displayed by his 7.71 ERA through 9 1/3 innings. J.A. Happ has been absolutely battered in both of his outings since returning from COVID. Given the performances of the Twins supposed fourth and fifth starters, people have started to ask the question: Why isn’t Dobnak in the Opening Day rotation? https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1373040201086464002?s=20 Cash Considerations: J.A. Happ was the Twins big rotation acquisition of the winter coming off a resurgent season posting a 3.47 ERA which cost them $8 million The Twins understandably saw a crafty control artist who could eat up some innings in a season where doing so would be more valuable than ever. The Twins later signed the normally effective but oft injured Matt Shoemaker to a $2 million deal to round out the back of their rotation. There are two considerations when it comes to these two veteran acquisitions. First of all, both were likely interested in coming to Minnesota due to the openings in the rotation. In Shoemaker’s case, it was announced that he was the fifth starter before Spring Training even started, which likely means he signed his contract with the promise of that spot. Things can happen to change such a promise, but using a couple of spring starts as their reasoning would be a bad look for the Twins. Second, the $10 million invested in the pair isn’t a huge amount, but it’s an amount the Twins allocated to the rotation. The best case scenario is to send one of the two to a bullpen role which they may not excel in and certainly wouldn’t be happy with. The worst case scenario is to cut bait altogether and waste the money spent. Roster Depth: The Twins have a lot more flexibility with Dobnak in his Opening Day bullpen role. With the current plan in place, the Twins have five starters who have historically been effective taking the ball every fifth day. Meanwhile Dobnak is always available to step in for a long relief outing whether it’s a planned piggyback for Happ who may still be building up or a short start from anyone else in the rotation. If Dobnak is ever unavailable when the bullpen is worn down, he can be replaced by an arm from St. Paul as well. Also of note, Happ is 38 years old which is never a great indicator of long term health and Shoemaker hasn’t topped 31 innings in three years. Dobnak will almost certainly wind up in the rotation by season’s end, but not before getting as many valuable innings as possible from the Twins winter acquisitions. Plenty of people are frustrated with the Twins failure to utilize Dobnak as a starter given his spring numbers compared to Happ and Shoemaker, but it’s worth trusting the process. Dobnak is still available at a moment's notice to step in and that opportunity will certainly present itself at some point. It’s possible this could finally be the year that one of the two veterans completely falls apart, but their Spring Training stats are not something to look at as an indicator of what’s to come. We’ll see plenty of Randy Dobnak in 2021, but him being in the rotation is not a necessity to open the season. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here