Cooper Carlson

We are all well aware of the Twins recent struggles, especially with the offense. Today I will be showing just how important it has been for this team when Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are hitting well opposed to when they struggle.Over the last month or so, the Twins have noticeably been a different team than the one we saw for the first couple months and a lot of that boils down to offensive struggles. From the Red Sox series (June 17th) up until the ending of the Oakland series (July 21st), the Twins offense ranked 13th in AVG, 15th in OBP and 15th in SLG. The drop off was so noticeable because from the start of the season to June 17th, the Twins were 1st in AVG, SLG, OPS, ISO, wRC+, wOBA and fourth in OBP. Everyone knew there would be some regression but it all seemed to hit at the same time and it wasn't kind. The Twins just ended a disheartening 11-13 stretch where the pitching stayed relatively consistent. The team ERA, WHIP, and xFIP all got better while the K/9 and FIP dropped just a bit, but it is clear the offense was the problem (and the defense of course). During the stretch where the offense regressed, the Twins went 11-13 while two key members atop the lineup seemingly disappeared for a while. Those two players were Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler and they were both considered All Star players in the first half (at least by Twins fans). For perspective on the next paragraphs, Kepler had a line of .272/.356/.553 (.908) and Polanco was at .333/.394/.555 (.949) before the regression came. In the offseason when both Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler were signed to long term deals to stay with the Twins, it was obvious the front office saw a lot of potential in both of them but I don't think anyone predicted them to be this good in year one of the new deals. They have consistently held down the top two lineup spots for most of the season and it looks like they will both stay there for a deep playoff run led by this potent offense. With that said, everyone hits a rough patch once in a while and when these two hitters struggle, it has a huge impact. You could easily make the argument that Kepler and Polanco are the two most important hitters for this team when they are going good. In games that Kepler has at least one hit, the Twins are 44-17 which is a 117 win pace opposed to a 12-18 record when he does not have a hit which only would be a 65 win-pace. The same goes for Jorge Polanco. When he has at least one hit in a game, the Twins have a 48-24 record which is a 108 win pace. Just like Kepler, when Polanco has zero hits in a game the Twins own a 10-12 record for a 73 win pace. The Twins are as good as these two hitters take them. During this recent 11-13 stretch, it has been obvious how much they both mean to the offense because their regression was during the exact same time as the whole offense regressing. Polanco had a .645 OPS with just a 67 wRC+ while Kepler had a .703 OPS with a 78 wRC+. A lot of the bad results came as a result of taking less walks and striking out more. Kepler went from 15.1% strikeouts and 11.3% walks to striking out 20.6% of the time and walking a mere 3.7% of appearances. The same trend occurred with Polanco, as he went from striking out 14.3% of the time and walking at 9.1% to striking out 17.4% and walking in just 4.3% of plate appearances. Of course every single player in baseball will go on at least one extended streak every season where things just don't go their way, but this post is an attempt to show just how important their success is to this Twins lineup. When Kepler and Polanco produce with hits, the Twins win. When they don't, the Twins lose. Its a simple process. One very interesting statistic that shows just how much they help the team when they succeed versus how much it affects the team when they struggle are their win probability added rankings on the team. Kepler and Polanco lead the team in +WPA respectively with a 8.51 for Kepler and a 7.93 for Polanco. When they succeed, the Twins win. Oddly they also have the two worst -WPA numbers on the team with Polanco at -7.39 and Kepler at -6.73. Again, when these two aren't doing well, the Twins lose. Not surprisingly, the Twins have gone 3-2 over their last five games and guess who has led the charge? Jorge Polanco and his 1.111 OPS along with Max Kepler and his 1.058 OPS. These two hitters basically control how the Twins will do and it is looking like they will be near the top of this Twins lineup for years to come. Click here to view the article

It seems like the Indians are gaining ground on the Twins every day with their surge during the Twins slump. Should we be worried? The trade deadline is just nine days away but there are no moves being made, despite the apparent holes in the Twins bullpen lately. Why isn't anyone making a trade? Who should the Twins target? What would be the perfect trade deadline? All these questions and much more are answered in this weeks podcast.You can find the podcast for this week by clicking here or by viewing below: For those of you who don't have a lot of time or just want to hear us talk about one specific thing, here are some time stamps to skip to: 17:15 Indians closing the gap. Should we worry? 23:00 What is going on with the bullpen? 34:15 Why the slow trade season? 40:45 Trade targets 46:00 What would be a perfect trade deadline? 53:00 Brett Gardner/Aaron Boone/Yankees rant 56:35 Luis Arraez over Schoop? 1:07:10 Byron Buxton close to a return? 1:09:30 Prospect talk (Larnach, Lewis, Celestino, Javier, Allen) Click here to view the article

The Twins were able to pull off a dramatic comeback win with an exciting walkoff single from Max Kepler. Despite the win, the bullpen saw its struggles and made all Twins fans want to quit and move to Los Angeles and the offense blew a frustrating amount of chances. Anyways, Twins win!Box Score Pineda: 5 1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 8 K, 58.7% strikes (64 of 109 pitches) Bullpen: 3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Kepler (24) Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (3-for-6), Arraez (3-for-5), Adrianza (3-for-5) Top 3 WPA: Adrianza (0.66), Kepler (0.53), Polanco (0.26) Bottom 3 WPA: May (-0.47), Sano (-0.21), Castro (-0.20) Another solid start for the offense Just like yesterday, this Twins offense was off to a hot start in the first inning. It started with two straight doubles from Kepler and Polanco, followed by a one out single from Rosario but the Twins could only plate one run while making Mengden work. The offense kept rolling in the second inning when Kepler came to the plate with to men on and put MAXimum power into one for a three run bomb. Get it? The Twins had some chances to put the game away early, especially with Mengden leaving after 3 2/3 innings, but they blew a two one one out chance in the third, the same situation in the fourth and then a bases loaded no out chance with the top of the order was squandered. Pineda works through some struggles As the offense couldn’t quite put a lot together, Michael Pineda was able to do enough to keep the A’s mostly in check. He struggled with his command all night and walked a season high five guys. For context, he walked just six in all of April, five in May and four in June. He came out after 5 and ⅓ innings and gave way to the bullpen… The Twins bullpen is going to make the entire state of Minnesota implode on itself After Pineda came out, Ryne Harper came into the game for the final two outs but it wasn’t clean. He gave up a hit to make the lead 5-3. The next pitcher was Trevor May and that did not go well. He threw 49 pitches and only 24 strikes, resulting in 3 walks, 2 hits and 2 earned runs over 1 2/3 innings. Long reliever Kohl Stewart was the only Twins reliever to have a good outing today. He went one inning, striking out two and giving up zero runs. Since Monday, the Twins have been relatively short-handed in the bullpen with just seven guys. Taylor Rogers has thrown 41 pitches in the last three days. Parker, Littell, and Duffey all pitched the last two days, and Kohl Stewart is a starter. It seems like a trade is coming soon but fans are getting impatient quickly. Frustrating Twins offense somehow pulls it off The inning after the Twins gave up the lead, Polanco started the 8th with a leadoff double, followed by a groundout that was a saved hit by the shortstop, a Rosario pop up to third base and then a Sano swinging strikeout. It wasn’t looking good for Twins fans. We all went into the bottom of the ninth inning extremely depressed and we had already moved onto football season. Luckily the Twins are really good! After a single by Arraez and a clutch RBI triple from Adrianza, Kepler came up with two out and a guy on third. He got his pitch from former Twins pitcher Liam Hendricks and lined it into left for the walkoff win! Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

Shifting is not a bad thing and it works much more than it doesn't. Davis is a pure pull hitter and him hitting it to first was a surprise. On Rosario, he didn't start because he was feeling under the weather.

In a game full of excitement and heartbreak, the Twins once again lose to Liam Hendricks and the Oakland Athletics by a score of 5-4. Also, everyone is mad at the bullpen.Box Score Berrios: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 65.4% strikes (74 of 113 pitches) Bullpen: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K Home Runs: Garver (17), Cruz (19), Sano (14) Multi-Hit Games: Sano (2-3), Kepler (2-4) Top 3 WPA: Schoop (0.37), Berrios (0.28), Sano (0.24) Bottom 3 WPA: Rogers (-0.62), Garver (-0.43), Littell (-0.43) Hot start with the bats The Twins began the third game of the series about as well as you could have hoped. Jose Berrios worked out of an error, bunt single and hit by pitch to strike out the side and it looked like he was well on his way to another quality start at the least. The bats also started off great, with a Mitch Garver home run, followed by a Cruz home run and then a Sano double that the Twins couldn’t cash in but it was 2-0 Twins after one. Mitch Garver is now batting .289/.357/.684 (1.041) with five home runs when he has hit leadoff (10 games this season). Offense slows down and Berrios navigates through trouble After the first inning, the Twins offense took a nose dive back down to Earth and couldn’t buy a hit against Anderson. There was an 0-for-14 stretch where everything was hit on the ground and there were only two balls hit with a 90 mph exit velocity or better. In the midst of these rough innings, Berrios seemed to be struggling and doing well at the same time. He got all the way into the sixth inning with spotty command but he showed just how good he is even without his best stuff. Bullpen struggles and Sano has a big day Berrios was taken out after 5 2/3 innings and was replaced by Tyler Duffey who did a good job of striking out the first guy he faced. He went back out for the seventh, walked the leadoff guy and got a pop out before he was removed for Zack Littell. It was not a good day for Littell after the front office showed how much they trusted him by letting other pitchers go. He immediately gave up a crushing two run home run to Mark Canha and then a solo shot to Ramon Laureano to give Oakland the lead 3-2. The next inning began with a Miguel Sano moonshot to left center that had an exit velocity of 113.8 mph and traveled 443 feet. The fans were back in it and the game was tied. The Twins offense rode that wave and C.J. Cron later scored on a sac fly from Jonathan Schoop. 4-3 Twins. Rogers blows the save and comeback falls short The ninth inning began just as everyone expected with the ever reliable Taylor Rogers in for the save, with a groundout and strikeout. Things got messy from there as the next batter was hit, then Laureano doubled and that was followed by a two-RBI single from Khris Davis off the glove of Adrianza at first. Eventually Rogers got out of the inning but it was 5-4 Athletics. The game appeared to be over, but the Twins refused to quit. Kepler singled, followed by a Schoop double and then Eddie Rosario was intentionally walked to bring up the greatest catcher of all time with the bases loaded and a chance to win it. Facing Liam Hendricks, Garver hit the first pitch right to shortstop for a crushing double play to end the game and the Twins fell 5-4. Bullpen woes hard to ignore The outcry from the fans for another bullpen arm or two to be added was never louder than throughout the game tonight. When Zack Littell is the guy you turn to in a big seventh inning, you may want to add. After the second home run it was apparent the fans at Target Field were upset as they rained down the boo’s from all over. The overuse of Rogers was also apparent tonight. He is the only reliever anyone can trust out there and he just didn’t have it tonight. If that is linked to fatigue then making a trade is much more necessary. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

It comes down to the question, do the Reds expect to compete for the division title in the next few years? The answer is probably no so everyone is on the table. There were literally rumors about Luis Castillo.

I wouldn't even take Archer if it was for free

This will be your first prediction loss. The Twins are taking 3 of 4.

My radar does not show them. Maybe I need to go buy a new one.

Well they brought you on, so yeah.

We have all heard the rumors about Stroman and Mad Bum, but maybe there are some quality starting pitchers that haven't really been talked about that could provide a meaningful upgrade to this Twins rotation. Let's take a look at Sonny Gray of the Reds and Arizona's Robbie Ray.The MLB trade deadline is just a couple weeks away and the Minnesota Twins are 58-35 with World Series aspirations this season. For a few months now, there has been constant speculation as to who or if the Twins will be adding to push this team over the top and truly become the team to beat for the AL pennant. Most of the speculation has been about adding some high-leverage arms to the bullpen, and that is likely going to happen, but it has begun to look more and more like adding an arm to the rotation is something the Twins will look to do. Over the last month, the Twins bullpen has a 3.02 ERA, 4.01 FIP (4.26 xFIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 8.79 K/9. They have been much better than the starters over that time with the starters having a combined 4.48 ERA, 4.11 FIP (4.39 xFIP), 1.31 WHIP and a 8.09 K/9. With the rotation hitting a bit of a rough stretch and with the uncertainty of guys like Pineda (because of his recent surgeries) or Perez (because of inconsistency and past performance), adding an arm to the rotation could help. We have all heard of the rumors about guys like Matt Boyd, Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Zack Wheeler so I decided to take a look at a couple guys who have not really been much talked about, but could be available for a good price. Sonny Gray It has been rumored lately that if the Twins were to acquire a starter, they would want team control beyond this season. Sonny Gray is now a 29-year-old veteran pitching for the Cincinnati Reds and is signed for three more years after 2019 with a 2023 option. He is making roughly $10 million per year. Gray was traded there this offseason and is having a great season so far and he even made the All-Star Game. His 3.42 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 10.36 K/9 are all great and he would likely slot in right behind Odorizzi as the number three starter. Gray has a five-pitch arsenal with his curveball and slider being a couple of the best in baseball. He is in the 97th percentile for curveball spin with batters hitting just .169 against it while batters are hitting just .108 against the slider. The problem comes with his fastball, which has hung around 93.5 MPH his whole career. This season the AVG against it is .305 with a SLG of .453 but the expected statistics show he has been unlucky, with 30-40 points of positive regression likely for both stats. If MVP (most valuable pitching coach) Wes Johnson can unlock some more velocity to make the fastball better then we may have an elite pitcher here. Of course there are always the questions like will the Reds even be sellers? What would a trade for Gray cost? Will Gray be available? I would think the Reds are willing to sell anyone for the right price because even their young ace Luis Castillo was rumored to be in trade talks. I imagine it would be like last seasons Chris Archer trade where the Rays got two MLB ready players in Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow back. It could very well cost a package of something similar to Arraez/Thorpe to acquire Sonny Gray. He doesn’t have the same name value as someone like Trevor Bauer, but he may be a better upgrade. On the most recent Leading Off Podcast with fellow Twins Daily member Matt Braun we discussed Sonny Gray, so skip to the 52 minute mark. Robbie Ray The Diamondbacks are sitting around a .500 record but they play in a division with the Dodgers so it is unlikely they make the playoffs. A wild card spot is open but that also would be difficult. They are stuck in the middle so they should trade away left-handed starter Robbie Ray to the Twins. Ray is having a great year, posting a 3.81 ERA, 4.04 FIP (3.89 xFIP) with a WHIP of 1.31 but the most interesting stats for him come with his walks and strikeouts. Robbie Ray is second in the NL with a K/9 of 11.76. Conversely he also has the worst BB/9 in the NL at 4.54. Then again, he also has the second best H/9. Basically, as a batter you go up there and either walk or get out with no other option. Just like Gray, his best pitches are his curveball and slider but the slider is used much more (34% compared to 14% on the curve) and opponents are hitting just .184 against it with a .356 SLG. His fastball hangs out around 92.5 MPH and he throws it 44.3% of the time. It isn't really anything special but it does a nice job of complementing the breaking balls. There is no certainty that the Diamondbacks will sell, but it might be wise because of the strong competition for a wild card spot and the already lost division. Plus they owe us for Eduardo Escobar, right? I have no idea what a package might look like for Ray but I doubt it would be an easy get. If the Twins feel like he would be the third-best pitcher on the team and it won’t cost you the farm then pull the trigger for some October wins. Overall, I think the Twins will be adding a rotation arm, especially now that it looks like Pineda is getting a reduced workload (he was limited to just 76 pitches his last outing). This front office doesn’t appear to be the type to go add a big name like Noah Syndergaard, and that could be a good thing. Acquiring a solid starter behind Berrios/Odorizzi and in front of Gibson gives you a stacked rotation for a deep October run. What do you think? Would you like either of these pitchers on the Twins, or is there someone else you have your eye on? Let me know in the comments. Click here to view the article