Cooper Carlson

Matt and Cooper of Twins Daily discuss the dwindling AL Central race, the injury report for a number of players, and talk about the state of a potential playoff bullpen and regular season bullpen. Give it a listen for those topics and much more.Link to Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7FnITrhARBvuOpnJrvO5k6 Time stamps Week in review: 4:45 Magic number is nine: 15:00 Jose Berrios: 16:55 Brusdar Graterol: 20:00 Buxton done: 25:40 Dobnak/rotation talk: 33:45 Jorge Alcala: 47:20 Injury news: 51:40 Fan questions: 63:15 Looking ahead: 82:00 https://open.spotify...ARBvuOpnJrvO5k6 Give it a listen and leave a comment on this post or tweet at us what you thought Matt: @Matthew_bTwins Cooper: Carlson_MnTwins Click here to view the article

Tortuga

The Twins lost the series finale to the Indians 7-5 after taking both games of the doubleheader the day before. Leaving Cleveland with a 4.5-game lead in the division was the goal and that is exactly what was done. In a game with Randy Dobnak starting, Kyle Gibson coming from the bullpen and a better lineup sitting on the bench, the Twins did a fine job.Box Score Donnak: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 61% strikes (45 of 74 pitches) Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K Home Runs: Sano (29), Rosario (30, 31), Wade jr (1) Multi-Hit Games: Sano (2-for-5), Cave (2-for-5), Rosario (3-for-5) Top 3 WPA: Rosario (.207), Wade Jr.. (.182), Harper (.060) Bottom 3 WPA: Gibson (-.402), Romero (-.245), Sano (-.099) Randy Dobnak out duels Shane Bieber The Twins pulled Jose Berrios and replaced him with Randy Dobnak to pitch the third game of this extremely important series ... and it worked! Dobnak went five innings and gave up two runs (one earned) while Bieber went 5 2/3 innings giving up four runs. This was the third straight game for the Twins that was started by someone who shouldn’t be starting important potential season-deciding games in September but here we are with a strong division lead. Rocco also decided to roll out the strangest lineup because what the hell, the division is locked up. Twins and Indians exchange offensive blows The Indians started the game off rolling by loading the bases and running a Kipnis grounder into a fielders choice that scored two runs. This was largely due to a throwing error by Ronald Torreyes. Who woulda thought we’d be missing Polanco on defense, am I right? The Twins would answer with three home runs to no one’s surprise. A solid shot from Sano and a solo from Rosario was followed by a two-run bomb from LaMonte Wade Jr. for his first career home run. He ditched his usually patient approach and jumped early on Bieber for the bomb. The Indians answered in the sixth with a three-run home run off the bat of Roberto Perez. For some reason this was off of starting pitcher Kyle Gibson. He came in to replace Fernando Romero after he let a couple guys on, so obviously the Twins did not intend on using their best weapons. The Twins were down 6-4 heading to the seventh inning. Eddie Rosario didn’t like that so he hit another home run to cut the lead to one and he certainly is heating up after taking a lot of heat from the fans. Hopefully he is entering one of his hot streaks heading into October. The jabs continued as Mike Freeman pushed the lead to 7-5 on an RBI single against Kyle Gibson. It is safe to say the Gibson bullpen experiment did not work today. Indians bullpen finishes off the game After the dust settled it was the Indians who came out on top after many offensive hits from each team in the middle innings of the game. James Hoyt had a clean eighth inning and then Hoyt came back out for the ninth. He started with a walk to Luis Arraez, but he was able to strike out Sano and Cave swinging. The lefty Oliver Perez came in to face Eddie Rosario for the final out and got him to pop out. Twins lead falls to 4.5 games over the Indians The Twins basically just had to go 3-3 over these last six against the Nationals and Indians and they did exactly that. Now moving on to thirteen games against the White Sox, Royals and Tigers, a 4.5-game lead looks like the division has been won (don’t kill me in the comments). The Twins stepped up this series despite a loss in the final game. Leaving Cleveland after helping end the Indians' season was a lot of fun. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

Ok I’m still putting it at 93-95% that the Twins are in the playoffs. The royals, White Sox and Tigers are putting worse lineups out there and the twins get to face them.

Going into a game against Strasburg with Perez as your starter and a depleted lineup should not go well and that is exactly what happened. Perez wasn't bad, he just wasn't bailed out by the defense. The absence of Kepler, Marwin and Sano is really noticeable in these games.

Statistically, that will not happen. Fangraphs puts us at 99.6% to make the playoffs and 97.2% to win the division. Twins are four games ahead of the Indians and they have the easiest schedule remaining of any MLB playoff contender.

Definitely. It makes writing a post like this a lot more fun when Berrios performs like the ace he can be.

The Twins are basically guaranteed to be playing playoff baseball this season, and that will likely start in the divisional round. With players seemingly dropping like flies including the ever consistent Michael Pineda, do the Twins have the players to make a postseason run? It may all depend on the success of Jose Berrios.The Twins and their fans have enjoyed one of the best seasons in team history and everyone knows it has largely been due to the historically good lineup. The lineup will be the Twins greatest weapon when October comes, and the Twins really will just be asking for a quality start from their pitchers in order to get a win. The problem with that theory which shouldn’t be that difficult, is that it has not been easy for the starting pitchers to go six innings lately. I’m sure you’ve heard everything there is to hear about how the Twins rotation has struggled, but there hasn’t really been much to worry about until the Pineda suspension was announced. With Pineda done for the year, the Twins are down to one consistent starter in Jake Odorizzi. If the Twins enter a playoff series against Houston or New York, having only one starting pitcher who can get the job done isn’t ideal. That is why I believe moving on to the second round of the playoffs relies heavily on how Jose Berrios performs. Of course the MLB playoffs are always extremely random. No one team has won consecutive World Series titles since the Yankees in 1999 and 2000 and that is why the baseball playoffs are more fun than watching the Warriors or Patriots win it every year in those other weird sports. Even with the random outcomes that will happen, I don’t like the Twins chances with Jake Odorizzi as their best pitcher. The Twins will need the first half Jose Berrios who posted a 3.00 ERA, 4.50 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP and .671 OPS to come back around to finish off the division and take on James Paxton, Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander and match them pitch for pitch. If they get the second half version with his 5.37 ERA and .807 OPS against the Yankees or Astros then it might not be so fun to watch. Luckily there has been good news in his most recent starts regarding the velocity that seemingly disappeared on his fastball in August. It has gone back up to a 93.5 MPH average which is just a tick above his best month this season. In June when his velocity was this high, he posted an elite 2.06 ERA and earned himself a trip to the All-Star Game. Download attachment: JBChart.jpeg Hopefully Berrios is working his way back to being the ace we all know and love because the playoff outlook completely changes if we get All-Star Berrios in game one. With a first place team surrounded by the negativity of the season-ending injury to Buxton, the Pineda suspension, and a flurry of other injuries, we hope Berrios can bring positive vibes back to Twins Territory. Click here to view the article

Matt and Cooper of Twins Daily discuss the recent week for the Twins along with the Michael Pineda suspension, the metric ton of injuries sustained recently, and the odds of promoting Alex Kirilloff to the majors.Spotify link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5n8sCVvjqbedPf1qDCu2oI Hey everyone, we're back after a pretty interesting week. We discuss everything that happens including the Pineda suspension and the blockbuster Ryan LaMarre trade along with much more. Time stamps: 2:20 Week in review 8:30 Michael Pineda suspended. How can the Twins replace him?' 18:00 With Pineda out, how are playoff hopes looking? 24:00 Chances of a Kirilloff promotion? 31:30 Discussing all 4,963 of the injuries 39:30 Fan questions 54:45 Martin Perez... again 66:45 Looking ahead 76:20 Reading mean tweets Link: https://open.spotify...jqbedPf1qDCu2oI Let us know what you think! Click here to view the article

Someone not on this list who I can see the Twins acquiring is Tanner Roark. Extremely consistent guy who could by a number 3 or 4. I would like someone on this list plus Roark.

The Twins sent out one of the strangest lineups we've seen all season and eventually even Ian Miller and Ryan LaMarre worked their way in there for this Twins loss. The opener strategy was deployed again headlined by Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer, but it did not go as well this second time around. The Twins lost this game and series to the Indians.Box Score Dobnak: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 67% strikes (22 of 33 pitches) Bullpen: 7.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: None Top 3 WPA: LaMonte Wade jr. (0.13), Ryne Harper (0.03), Fernando Romero (0.02) Bottom 3 WPA: Cron (-0.10), Dobnak (-0.10), Polanco (-0.09) Clevinger dominates against strange Twins lineup The Twins have been hit with the injury bug a frustrating amount of times this season, and that was on full display today. By the second inning, only three Twins players in the lineup were in the lineup on Opening Day. The Twins did what was expected with this lineup against the elite Mike Clevinger by getting just four hits over 6 1/3 innings. Max Kepler left the game after a first inning at-bat that had him feeling some upper chest pain, and Ian Miller got his first career at-bat. He struck out and was eventually replaced by Twins legend Ryan LaMarre. Through seven innings no Twin had more than one hit and a bases-loaded opportunity went to waste. The Twins did get a bit of offense off of Clevinger with this Mitch Garver home run. Twins opener not as successful the second time around The Twins broke out their first real opener last week against Boston and saw the Dobnak/Lewis Thorpe combination lead to a win, but today did not go as well. Dobnak started again but gave up two runs, and then his replacement was Smeltzer, who also gave up two runs. With Michael Pineda suspended, Kyle Gibson on the IL, Jose Berrios struggling, and Martin Perez being a huge question mark, the opener strategy will likely be utilized by the Twins down the stretch. It may even be used in the playoffs so hopefully they can get a solid rotation or combination going to see what works. Indians bullpen finishes off the game The Twins were finally able to get Clevinger out of the game, and they were threatening to get back in to it. After loading the bases with one out, C.J. Cron and Mitch Garver both struck out swinging. As a team, the Twins are hitting just .215/.221/.318 with the bases loaded. Also, the Twins lead all of baseball in wOBA, but they are somehow last in wOBA with the bases loaded. Baseball is weird. The eighth inning was easy for the Indians as Oliver Perez set down the side 1-2-3, and then Brad Hand and his 6.00 second-half ERA came in to finish it off. Luis Arraez hit a ball 98 MPH with a .400 xBA but Greg Allen made a great catch to rob him of a double. Adrianza flew out, Wade was hit by a pitch, Schoop walked, and 2018 Twins legend Ryan LaMarre stepped to the plate with a chance to tie the game ... He struck out. Twins fall to 5.5 games over the Indians The Twins basically just had to go 3-3 over these last six against the Red Sox and Indians and they did exactly that. Now moving on to six more tough games against Washington and Cleveland, the Twins should just go 3-3 again to secure the division. What is your panic level? I mean it shouldn’t be high except for the absurd amount of injuries, but let me know in the comments and I’ll discuss with you. Twins lose the series two games to one against the division rival Indians. Postgame with Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days. Click here to view the article

You could use the same argument for the bench. Why would the fifth guy ever get in the game? I would rather have an extra arm for extras/blowouts/tired staff

Yeah I'm sure he will get up there once he settles in more. I would bet he's more focused on hitting his spots at the moment.

I told Matt Braun in our podcast I would much rather face the Yankees over the Astros and he wasn't having it. The New York curse still lingers I suppose. The only way to break the curse is to beat the Yankees this year.

What an amazing month for the starting pitchers. All of the honorable mentions were good enough to win and they couldn't even crack the top six. Bright future.

Changeup 92-94. Really good changeup and he mixes in a couple of breaking balls. Relies a ton on control.

This is an interesting concept and one that I dug into earlier in the year. If Max is going to become the next Yelich, it will happen next year. If Kepler stays similar to what he is doing this season (which is still very good), he will not improve much from there so if he is going to be as good as Yelich, it'll happen in 2020.

I like it. I went without Gibson because if he is not at full health then I don’t really think he needs to be on the first series playoff roster.

The Twins bullpen has been the biggest issue with the Twins all season, but suddenly it has become a strength in September. With about twelve guys out there who are good enough to make a strong impact on a daily basis, who gets the nod for the playoff bullpen? Well, here is my early prediction.On the morning of Sept. 3, 2019 the Minnesota Twins have a 99.7% chance to make the playoffs and 94.5% chance of winning the division. Of course the division race is not mathematically over, but with just under a month to go and a 6.5 game lead, you have to feel good about where the Twins are. Just look at this fun graph from Fangraphs. The Twins have not been under 50% since May 7 and even when Cleveland took the lead the Twins still had a better chance. Download attachment: division odds.png With the Twins all but guaranteed to go to the playoffs, a lot of talk about the potential playoff roster has been heating up. With a current 36-man roster including fifteen pitchers after September call-ups, the Twins will have a few tough decisions. Who will be in a playoff rotation? Will Kyle Gibson make the roster? How many bullpen pitchers will the Twins carry? I think the Twins will go with a three-man rotation, Kyle Gibson will still be recovering, and the Twins will have nine in the bullpen. Who will make the Twins playoff bullpen? After months of questioning if the Twins would even have enough pitchers to make up a competent playoff bullpen, the script has been completely flipped. The Twins now have about ten to twelve guys with a real shot to make an impact in the playoffs, but it will likely come down to about eight or nine. With five guys being locked in, who else has a shot? This list will assume Berrios, Pineda, and Odorizzi make the roster. Locks: 1. Taylor Rogers 2. Tyler Duffey 3. Sergio Romo 4. Sam Dyson 5. Trevor May Most likely: 6. Zack Littell 7. Brusdar Graterol 8. Martin Perez 9. Ryne Harper 10. Lewis Thorpe Unlikely: 11. Devin Smeltzer 12. Cody Stashak 13. Trevor Hildenberger 14. Jorge Alcala 15. Fernando Romero 16. Randy Dobnak 17. Kohl Stewart Going off of these rankings, creating a playoff bullpen will be tough and that is a good problem to have. With a three-man rotation, the Twins can likely afford to have nine men in the playoff bullpen, but who will they be? Zack Littell is probably the easiest answer at this point. Since being transferred to the bullpen full time, he has pitched 19 2/3 innings and given up just two runs on two solo home runs. That is good for a 0.92 ERA to go with a 1.12 WHIP, 22.4 K%, and .675 OPS. The Twins have used him in a set-up role lately, showing him that they trust him. He gets the sixth spot in my way too early playoff bullpen. Next up, the Twins will probably want at least one more left-hander to be used as a lefty specialist to go get an out against Didi Gregorius even though it seems impossible. The three competitors will be Perez, Smeltzer, and Thorpe. The best OPS against left handed hitters this season from that group belongs to Perez at just .583 (Thorpe at .929 and Smeltzer at .816) so I expect him to be an effective bullpen arm. He gets bullpen spot number seven. That leaves two more. The eighth guy in my bullpen is someone who the Twins and everyone around them have been talking about for months, and that is the flame-throwing right-hander Brusdar Graterol. Honestly I don’t think I would be able to forgive myself if I didn’t put him here. The upside for Graterol has already been expressed by everyone around Twins Territory but even Thad Levine was saying this is definitely a special pitcher. He made these comments about him to the Minneapolis Star Tribune: “In my entire career, I’ve never seen a pitcher other than [Yankees All-Star closer] Aroldis Chapman sit above 100 MPH for an entire inning,” Levine said. “I think he threw one fastball that was timed at 99, and it was almost disappointing.” The final spot in my early bullpen is completely up for grabs from anyone remaining. The player who outperforms the rest this month will get a playoff job so you may want to keep your eyes out for the hot hand. It could really be any of these players, but my best guess would have to be Lewis Thorpe. His 2.76 FIP and 9.2 K/9 are extremely impressive, and his best games have been against the Yankees and Red Sox. Sign me up for some more Thorpedo. Final bullpen: 1 Taylor Rogers 2 Tyler Duffey 3 Sergio Romo 4 Sam Dyson 5 Trevor May 6 Zack Littell 7 Martin Perez 8 Brusdar Graterol 9 Lewis Thorpe What would you change about the bullpen? Let me know in the comments below. Click here to view the article