MaxOelerking

Morrison had his first really good year at 29...Sano has been producing big numbers already at 23 and 24.

If Sano was 27 years old I would be concerned, but he's just about to turn 25. Still has the best part of his career ahead of him. Sure, he should try and keep the extra weight off, but if he keeps slugging over .500 and walks over 10% of the time he will be just fine. May he never reach his full potential? Sure, which would make him an above average player who we have yet to offer a big scary contract. Another thing to note, since Sano debuted in 2015 he has a walk-rate of 12.1%. Over that same time, Mauer's walk rate is 11.8%. Don't fret over Miguel Sano folks.

Something that I though would be fun, making a 2018 Twins roster with only similar players. For example, Mike Trout who is a career .305/.409/.566 and plays CF would be similar to Mickey Mantle .298/.421/.557. Enjoy! CATCHERS Wellington Castillo .259/.319/.430 { Jason Castro .233/.312/.388 } John Hicks .232/.289/.395 { Mitch Garver .193/.281/.368 } FIRST BASE Keith Hernandez .296/.384/.436 { Joe Mauer .309/.392/.443 } Kevin Maas .230/.329/.422 { Logan Morrison .242/.328/.428 } SECOND BASE Bret Boone .266/.325/.442 { Brian Dozier .251/.328/.454 } SHORTSTOP Stephen Drew .252/.318/.423 { Jorge Polanco .266/.322/.417 } THIRD BASE Evan Longoria .269/.340/.482 { Miguel Sano .254/.346/.498 } UTILITY Julio Lugo .269/.333/.384 { Eduardo Escobar .253/.301/.398 } STARTING PITCHER ( IP / ERA / WHIP ) James Shields 2429.1 / 3.98 / 1.271 { Ervin Santana 2383.1 / 4.02 / 1.265 } Charles Nagy 1954.2 / 4.51 / 1.419 { Jose Berrios 231.2 / 4.66 / 1.312 } Steve Parris 753.1 / 4.75 / 1.505 { Kyle Gibson 745 / 4.68 / 1.438 } Danny Salazar 587.1 / 3.82 / 1.263 { Jake Odorizzi 726.2 / 3.81 / 1.223 } Josh Johnson 998 / 3.40 / 1.268 { Lance Lynn 986.2 / 3.39 / 1.292 } Let me know what you think or who you think would be a better fit!

I agree and disagree with you here: yes, putting the ball in play with two strikes can prove to be important. I too hate to see a lot of strikeouts, ESPECIALLY LOOKING! But...something that gets missed is that the "2 strike approach" has changed in the MLB. Here are the hard hit ball stats in 2-strike counts: 2002 19.7% 2003 21.3% 2004 23.7% 2005 24.7% 2006 24.2% 2007 28.8% 2008 24.4% 2009 23.9% 2010 27.2% 2011 21.5% 2012 26.3% 2013 27.5% 2014 27.0% 2015 26.6% 2016 28.9% 2017 29.2% 2018 30.7% * through April 19th Basically what has happened is that players want to stay on the attack. This results in more strikeouts, but it also results in more extra base hits. The trade off is higher K rate, but higher HR rate as well.

Mike Trout is like the Mickey Mantle of our era...so no, unfortunately.

I love the optimism, but unless Sano hits 40 homers and Berrios wins 20 games, the Indians are still much better than the Twins. Yonder Alonso will be a great replacement for Santana at 1B, plus CLE has some dominant pitchers in Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Allen, and Miller.

I love Royce Lewis, I really hope he works out for us. I happened to be in Iowa last summer when he made his debut with the Kernels. 4 for 4 with 1 RBI and 1 SB. I know it's one game but that was really cool to see, especially in his first game at the next level above rookie ball. Brent Rooker is also one that gets me excited. Yes he is older than the other prospects, but he has a deadly combination of power and intelligence. I wouldn't be surprised if he's up with the big club in '19 or '20 hitting 30+ bombs. Not trying to exaggerate at all, that guy can flat out RAKE.

Buxton will be fine, he's only 24 so still a few year out from the prime of his career. If he is going to have a slump, I'd rather it come early in April than in September/October. With the adjustments he made last season and all off season to perfect his craft, I don't think we should have much to worry about. My biggest concern with Buxton is that he's going to hurt himself crashing into the center field wall so many times. I love watching him fly around out there and totally appreciate the hustle, I just hope he can stay healthy and play 150+ games with 625+ plate appearances.

Good move for the money. Morrison will be a solid bat in the middle of the lineup. Probably a .240/.330/.465 guy, if he gets 600 plate-appearances, could provide 70 runs for the good guys.

The Minnesota Twins top priority this off-season has been pitching. We have made moves to bolster our bullpen (Addison Reed gets me fired up) and there is a lot of talk surrounding big name starting pitchers. Yu Darvish has been on the radar since October, getting Twins fans excited since we haven't had a top arm like his since Johan Santana. Unfortunately, the Darvish scenario is looking less hopeful for the Twins, a lot of teams are interested and can probably offer more money. I have talked about Lance Lynn in previous posts and today I read an article about the possability of signing Lynn and Alex Cobb rather than just Darvish. The article, by Tom Froemming, here on Twins Daily was interesting not only because of the idea, but because of the comments and the Twitter poll. Majority of the comments read something along the lines of "Darvish without question" or "Lynn/Cobb would be a mistake". The Twitter poll also surprised be because it ended up being a perfect 50/50 split. This is my opinion: Lynn and Cobb would be better than Darvish alone...even if Darvish wanted to come here. Yes I know, this is crazy. Why pass on the top SP free agent on the market for a reasonable price? Because Lynn and Cobb combined would be better than Darvish and whoever ends up being the Twins 5th man in the rotation. Yu Darvish would be the ace of our rotation, probably for the next couple of years too, he's a great pitcher that would be fun to watch and help us in the playoffs as well. So why pass on him for Lynn/Cobb? My simple breakdown would be this: would you rather have one great player and one average player or two good players? I take depth 365 days out of the year (366 on leap years) because a baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Signing one big arm would make sense if we already had a solid rotation but the truth is we have a steady top end and a rocky bottom half. Santana/Berrios are easily guys we can rely on going forward. Gibson/Mejia/Hughes/young guy, not so much. Gibson is the one guy I would give the benefit of the doubt to just because he improved last season, but he's good for a few meltdowns a year. Mejia proved he's not ready and Hughes...well who the hell knows what part of that guy's body will let down next. I like our young arms a lot, but not enough to have them fill the back-end of our rotation long-term. Here is where my argument resides. Having two quality arms would make Gibson our 5th starter. Every Darvish start would equal two starts from unreliable pitchers vs two starts from quality arms and one start from an unreliable pitcher. That unreliable pitcher could also improve into a solid 5th starter, who knows? My second point is about the postseason. If you look at the last three years for example, each World Series team has gotten a rental to boost their roster. 2015 Royals traded for Ben Zobrist, 2016 Cubs traded for Chapman, 2017 Astros traded for Verlander. Granted a lot of teams make trades, but every World Series team has made some kind of move for a rental piece as a metaphorical cherry-on-top. Where am I going with this? If we finish July with a good record and are looking to make a playoff run, we can make a trade for a rental piece. A lot of comments about Darvish helping is the playoffs are true but there are other ways the Twins can be productive in October. Again, this is just my opinion, if you disagree please leave a comment below. I would love to hear some other ideas. Thanks.

I like this a lot! Our bullpen should be greatly improved. Also very well written in general.

Personally, I would rather have Cobb and Lynn rather than Darvish. Your paying 2 for the price of 1, more secure, and having a deeper rotation will get us farther over the course of a season.

Darvish is my easy favorite for the Twins to go after, but Lynn wouldn't be a bad 2nd option IMO. He would be a solid piece in the rotation good for 200 IP if needed. His fastball velocity isn't overpowering but he's shown no sign of slowing down yet. What intrigues me the most is his repertoire of four-seam, two-seam, and cutter. Three pitches that move in three different directions. He also mixes in a change-up and breaking ball. Having another reliable veteran arm in our rotation would make for a fun 2018.

Last year at DH for the Twins looked like this: Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA Robbie Grossman 257 39 .336 .398 .320 Kennys Vargas 129 17 .310 .425 .313 Miguel Sano 100 7 .300 .267 .254 Eduardo Escobar 74 7 .297 .424 .308 Joe Mauer 57 8 .386 .347 .331 Mitch Garver 12 1 .417 .500 .391 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 629 79 .326 .384 .309 Last year at the plate for Lucas Duda: Player PA R OBP SLG wOBA Lucas Duda 491 50 .322 .496 .341 The 31 year old played 792 innings last season at 1B for the Mets and Rays. Defensive metrics show he's similar to a Chris Davis or Matt Carpenter, but that is not what the Twins need since Joe Mauer is one of the top defensive 1B in the MLB. Here is my pitch for why the Twins should sign Duda: 1. Power (since 2015) Player SLG ISO XBH/100 HARD% Lucas Duda .479 .248 12.6 39.2% Eric Hosmer .463 .169 9.02 32.2% Chris Davis .486 .252 11.2 41.0% Duda has great power numbers comparable to some of the better 1B power bats over the past few seasons, being in the AL where he can DH will definitely boost his numbers since he can take more at-bats. 2. Age At 31, Duda is no spring chicken, but 1B has been on of the most forgiving positions as players age. Other 31 year-old 1B numbers: Player Year ISO OBP SLG wOBA Mike Napoli 2013 .223 .360 .482 .367 Jim Thome 2002 .373 .445 .677 .461 Edwin Encarnacion 2014 .279 .354 .547 .389 Justin Morneau 2012 .149 .333 .440 .330 3. Cost As far as contracts go, the high end Duda would go for is 1-2 years, $10M per season. A lot depends on how the free agent market changes during the off season. If the Twins can sign a defensive catcher in Castro for $8M per, they should be able to spend around the same amount for a power bat, if not more. 4. Ballpark How exciting would it be to see Duda driving balls out over the RF porch onto the concourse? As a lefty, Duda's swing would work perfect at Target Field. He hits 30.3% to CF and 46.2% to RF. 42.1% of his batted balls are hit hard, while less than 20% are hit soft. This combination of hard hit balls being hit to to the right side of the field is a lethal combination at Target Field. Click here for an image of every 2017 Lucas Duda home run with the Target Field dimensions overlaid. Conclusion: The Twins could use Duda as a DH and reliable 1B replacement for Mauer. He would thrive in Target Field and would produce extra pop in the middle of the Twins lineup. I'm a huge Eduardo Escobar fan, and I would love to see him be a key piece for the Twins as well. I believe signing Duda would allow for Escobar to be a full-time utility man at 3B/SS/2B/ My projections: PA R OBP SLG 450 47 .345 .485 500 51 .343 .488 550 64 .340 .490 600 75 .337 .492 650 76 .335 .486 700 81 .333 .482 My 2018 lineup: 1. Dozier 2B 2. Mauer 1B 3. Sano 3B 4. Rosario LF 5. Duda DH 6. Polanco SS 7. Buxton CF 8. Kepler RF 9. Castro C Thanks for reading and please leave a comment if you agree/disagree with anything.

Very true, Garver could be a nice piece in the near future.

Baseball fans around the country are ready for another exciting MLB free agency free-for-all. Especially excited are Twins fans. Coming off a Wild Card season, the Twins and their new management look to become a power in the AL. Lets first look at what the Twins already have: Solid starting outfield Infield depth/flexability Strong offensive prospects And what we need to be successful: Stronger rotation Reliable bullpen One more solid bat in the middle of the lineup For the last bullet point in the "needs" list, some of our own guys have shown the ability to be that guy. Byron Buxton was very impressive in the second half of the season, but I think his defense makes him a valuable piece anyways. The player I was impressed with was Jorge Polanco. Polanco's offensive numbers through June were .242/.290/.346. Not impressive at all, but from July 1st till the end of the season he produced a much better stat line at .268/.333/.467. That is a huge jump not only in average and on-base but his slugging percentage jumped up 121 points! Hopefully he can continue his second half success at the plate and be a threat in the middle of the lineup. Another reason why Polanco can be valuable is because finding a solid shortstop is tough. An everyday shortstop who is dangerous at the plate is a scarce commodity. For a comparison, here are the number of players with at least 500 PA and wOBA greater or equal to 0.330 by position: 1B ----> 15 2B ----> 9 SS ----> 6 3B ----> 10 OF ----> 24 So having players like Polanco and Escobar that can play SS and do damage at the plate are valuable if they continue to produce. Now onto the wishlist. Here are my top 5 pitchers that I want the Twins to sign: 1. Yu Darvish RHP The obvious #1 here is Darvish. He's one of the best Pitchers in the MLB and at age 30, still has a nice chunk of career left. At around 6 years/$150M, Darvish will cost a lot to get, but he would be the best pitcher the Twins have had since Johan Santana. 2018 predictions: 75 Runs / 200 IP 2. Lance Lynn RHP At $56M over 4 years, Lance Lynn is a solid starting pitcher with lots of experience with over 970 major league innings pitched in his career. Lynn missed the 2016 season to have Tommy John surgery but didn't miss a beat last season. Lynn has a full repertoire of pitches and mixes them well. He has never been a huge strikeout guy but with his movement and control, he gets a lot of weak contact. In 2017, Lynn ranked 14th in the league with 21.1% of his batted balls hit softly. (Darvish - 20.5% Arrieta - 20.0% Scherzer 19.5%). 2018 predictions: 78 Runs / 200 IP 3. Alex Cobb RHP Alex Cobb is my number two pitcher at around 4 years/$48M, Cobb is a steal. He's got the stuff to be a 1 or 2 in the rotation. He has a fastball and slider both in the low to mid 90s, and a curveball in the low 80s. Something interesting about Cobb is his windup delivery, which can only really be described as herky jerky, but it can mess with hitter's rhythm. 2018 predictions: 69 Runs / 170 IP 4. Yusmerio Petit RHP Last season, Petit threw over 85 innings in relief with a WHIP of 0.96. Petit would be a great addition to the bullpen as a guy who can come in and eat up a couple innings per game. Holding onto a lead in the 6th - 8th innings is obviously important, which is what Petit can help the Twins pitching staff do. 2018 predictions: 22 Runs / 70 IP 5. Brandon Morrow RHP Morrow came into last season with just 43.2 innings pitched after a stint in AAA. Morrow has an exploding fastball that can reach 100mph. What I like most about Morrow is not only his incredible velocity, but his ability to hide the ball from hitters till the last second. Its hard enough for a hitter to pick up a 98mph fastball, and its that much tougher when they don't know where its coming from. Morrow is a strikeout machine and can really help the Twins in the later innings of ball games. Morrow would be higher on this list had it not been for his asking price of around $24M over 3 years. 2018 predictions: 11 Runs / 60 IP Obviously the Twins need pitching, but here is a quick rundown of free agent fielders that I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins sign: 1. Logan Morrison 1B/DH 2017 Stats: .246/.353/.516 wOBA = 0.363 2. Jay Bruce RF/DH 2017 Stats: .254/.324/.508 wOBA = 0.350 3. Yonder Alonso 1B/DH 2017 Stats: .266/.365/.501 wOBA = 0.366 4. Welington Castillo C 2017 Stats: .282/.323/..490 wOBA = 0.344 5. Lucas Duda 1B/DH 2017 Stats: .217/.322/.496 wOBA = 0.341 Basically I want another Jim Thome circa 2010, or Welington Castillo to split time with Jason Castro for more offensive production behind the plate. If the Twins make some moves this off season and buy during the trade deadline, this is a team that could make a run in the postseason.