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  1. The Twins fall to the Pirates in their game on Tuesday and are now 6-8 on the Grapefruit League season. Brent Rooker and Josh Donaldson stay hot on the offensive side of the ball while José Berríos gets roughed up in four innings of work. That and more in today’s notebook.Pittsburgh 4, Twins 2 Box Score Twins Takeaways: Standout pitcher: Tyler Duffey (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2K) Standout hitter: Josh Donaldson (2-for-3, 2B) Lineup: Highlights: TYLER DUFFEY IS BACK. Okay, sorry ... but Twins fans may be able to take a deep breath after today’s outing by Duffey where he averaged 92.6 miles per hour on his fastball, which was his average in 2020, but had been averaging sub-90 this spring. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic came to twitter with even more encouraging news… We don’t have, or at least I couldn’t find, the data to see if this is his usual approach for spring training but given today’s results I don’t have a reason to believe otherwise. Duffey wasn’t the only talking point out of the bullpen today as Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, and Brandon Waddell threw one shutout inning each while only allowing a combined four baserunners and striking out three. Berríos failed to record a single clean inning today and was really hit hard by the Pirates over four innings by allowing eight hits, walking one, and only striking out one batter. Although players seem to be ramping up, as the Twins play their second nine-inning game in as many days, I still take today’s results with a grain of salt. Although it’s not encouraging, it’s spring training and at the end of the day it’s only one start. Jorge Polanco left today’s tilt early after hurting himself when diving for a ball Get a Randy Dobnak shirt while supporting a good cause. Check out this beautiful Alex Kirilloff Topps Inception Rookie Card Other News Around the League: Speedster Billy Hamilton, recently released by Cleveland, joins the Chicago White Sox camp on a minor league deal The White Sox lack depth and Hamilton would be a nice option fo the extra-inning rule from 2020. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him stick as the last guy on the bench. Old friend Kyle Gibson to get first Opening Day start of his career After six-plus seasons with the Twins, the sinker baller joined Texas in 2020 making 12 starts and sporting a 5.35 ERA (5.70 xERA) and striking out 58 batters over 67.1 innings. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  2. Pittsburgh 4, Twins 2 Box Score Twins Takeaways: Standout pitcher: Tyler Duffey (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2K) Standout hitter: Josh Donaldson (2-for-3, 2B) Lineup: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1371834375772463113 Highlights: TYLER DUFFEY IS BACK. Okay, sorry ... but Twins fans may be able to take a deep breath after today’s outing by Duffey where he averaged 92.6 miles per hour on his fastball, which was his average in 2020, but had been averaging sub-90 this spring. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic came to twitter with even more encouraging news… https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1371921814125867013 We don’t have, or at least I couldn’t find, the data to see if this is his usual approach for spring training but given today’s results I don’t have a reason to believe otherwise. Duffey wasn’t the only talking point out of the bullpen today as Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, and Brandon Waddell threw one shutout inning each while only allowing a combined four baserunners and striking out three. Berríos failed to record a single clean inning today and was really hit hard by the Pirates over four innings by allowing eight hits, walking one, and only striking out one batter. Although players seem to be ramping up, as the Twins play their second nine-inning game in as many days, I still take today’s results with a grain of salt. Although it’s not encouraging, it’s spring training and at the end of the day it’s only one start. Jorge Polanco left today’s tilt early after hurting himself when diving for a ball https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1371925053080793092 Get a Randy Dobnak shirt while supporting a good cause. https://twitter.com/InfieldChatter/status/1371852584269529088 Check out this beautiful Alex Kirilloff Topps Inception Rookie Card https://twitter.com/NoDakTwinsFan/status/1371889997045850114?s=20 Other News Around the League: Speedster Billy Hamilton, recently released by Cleveland, joins the Chicago White Sox camp on a minor league deal https://twitter.com/JRFegan/status/1371870739960303626 The White Sox lack depth and Hamilton would be a nice option fo the extra-inning rule from 2020. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him stick as the last guy on the bench. Old friend Kyle Gibson to get first Opening Day start of his career https://twitter.com/Rangers/status/1371955478746517506 After six-plus seasons with the Twins, the sinker baller joined Texas in 2020 making 12 starts and sporting a 5.35 ERA (5.70 xERA) and striking out 58 batters over 67.1 innings. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  3. For this installment of the series, we will take a look at the top three relievers in each bullpen. The White Sox added the best reliever in baseball, but do they have the best bullpen in the division? Let’s find out.The Rundown Reliever is arguably the hardest position to predict or project, as a vast majority of elite relievers have very short life span, and even if you’re not elite your results can vary pretty drastically from year to year. The Twins are all too familiar with this as Taylor Rogers was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2019 but then really struggled in 2020. On the other hand, Tyler Duffey was very good in 2019 and had an even better 2020 season. Now that’s not to say that relievers cannot be counted on from year to year. Over the last couple of seasons the Twins have relied on sturdy veterans like Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo who have a combined 24 seasons of relief experience and have accrued 19.4 fWAR between them. With all of that said, I will be utilizing savant profiles and projection models (i.e. ZiPS and Steamer) more than previous statistics to preview and grade the top 3-4 arms in each American League Central team's bullpen. It’s not exact science but I think those resources will provide a better idea than past results. Let’s dive in. Detroit Tigers As is the new norm, Steamer projects the Tigers using a rotation at closer that might also include Joe Jiminez, although he’s never been overly effective in his career. The Tigers do have some up and coming starters, but their bullpen isn’t going to be good in 2021 and is headlined by Buck Farmer, Bryan Garcia, and Gregory Soto. Check out their 2020 savant profiles below...it ain’t pretty. Download attachment: Tigers.png Farmer’s 2020 savant profile doesn’t quite do him justice as he’s more capable of missing bats than his 10th percentile ranking would indicate, while also being more susceptible to walks. His fastball was about two miles-per-hour slower than in 2019 and he pounded the zone a bit more in 2020, which when put together may be why hitters hit him hard last season. Garcia has thrown a total of 461 pitches at the big league level which makes him dually hard to project, but one thing that is clear is that control is always an issue of his. He was successful in 2020 by allowing a lot of soft contact and ground balls, but hitters will quickly learn to make him throw strikes which could be troublesome if he’s not able to locate his pitches on the edges of the zone. Soto is Garcia except with much, much better “stuff”. He has a smaller sample size than Soto and has produced markedly different results in two years as a pro. He was downright awful in 2019 but then showed some promise in 2020 with an xERA of 3.70 and dropping his opponent xwOBA by 100 points. If he can reign in the walks, which neither ZiPS or Steamer project him to do in 2020, he could be their best reliever. Cleveland On paper you might look at the Cleveland bullpen and, aside from James Karinchak, ask ‘who’?? And although Cleveland is at the early stages of their sudden rebuild, their bullpen is actually still in decent shape. It’s not the dominant Cleveland bullpen we’ve come accustomed to over the last few years, but I think they’ll be better than they look if you go by name recognition. Download attachment: Indians.png It will be interesting to see how Karinchak’s career develops over the next few years. At only 25 years old and just 32.1 innings under his belt, his lack of control has been an issue from the time he entered the Cleveland organization in 2017. Despite this, he consistently posted beyond elite strikeout numbers and flew through the system debuting at the end of 2019. Even considering his elite whiff and contact rates, you have to wonder if hitters will start challenging him to throw strikes and how he will respond. I was somewhat surprised when I saw Maton’s Savant profile as compared to his previous statistics. In his four year career, his numbers are mostly pedestrian despite his Savant profile ranking him in the 80th and 90th percentiles nearly across the board. His projections would agree has all of them have him posting career best numbers this year. Clase missed 2020 due to a PED suspension but threw 23.1 efficient innings in 2019. The 22-year-old rookie will be a force to be reckoned with as he can consistently pump triple digits and does so while limiting walks, but not creating the strikeouts you might assume. Most of his projections have him striking out one batter inning, but you have to think the organization that has developed some elite pitchers in recent years will change that. Chicago White Sox The White Sox already had a solid bullpen in 2020 and then went and added the best reliever in the game in Liam Hendriks. Before teams get to Hendriks they will have to first get through the formidable duo of Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall along with other very capable relievers. Download attachment: White Sox.png We know Hendriks is very good, and he has been covered well by our Twins Daily crew this offseason. In lieu of restating others' work, feel free to revisit these articles… Why Did the Twins Let Liam Hendriks Go? by Cody ChristiePotential Twins Bullpen Target: Liam Hendriks by Andrew Thares...while also remembering the article I linked earlier on why I was okay with missing out in Hendriks. Bummer missed the majority of the 2020 season with left biceps soreness which is why I used his 2019 savant profile. He’s a hard throwing lefty who doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs and will need to limit walks to reach his full potential. His projections show some regression from 2019 as his expected values (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) don’t quite match his contact rates. Nonetheless, he’ll still be a solid option to bridge the gap between the starter and Marshall/Hendriks. It’s taken a while for Marshall to get here, and he’s only been “here”...read as ‘a very good reliever’....for the last 35 innings of his career outside of a hot start to the 2019 season. Although his Savant profile is impressive, most of his projections have him regressing a little bit on his 2020 numbers striking out fewer batters while walking more. Kansas City Royals The Royals bullpen is going to be a rough one this year although they do have some decent arms to close out games. They are lead by Scott Barlow, Greg Holland, and Josh Staumont but after that it gets pretty thin quick. Their prospect pool at pitcher is extremely deep and many are projected to make their debuts in 2021, so it’s possible they temporarily convert a couple of their arms to relievers. Download attachment: Royals.png Barlow has been a solid yet unspectacular reliever for the Royals over the last three seasons. He has a nice fastball, slider mix that he can locate while striking out a good amount of batters. He can be a little susceptible to the long ball for a reliever, but might be the most reliable arm they have heading into 2021 as his projects to be their best reliever. Holland had a really nice 2020 season that is supported by his Savant profile. I’m surprised to see that all of the projections model show a considerable regression in his ERA and FIP, although his 2020 groundball and home run rates weren’t totally inline with his career norms which could partially affect this. He’s lost considerable umph from his fastball over the years as he now sits low-90’s and has become more reliant on his slider. I feel like I’ve profiled Staumont already when I wrote up my blurb on Karinchak. He throws hard, generates lots of whiffs but walks way too many batters and, like Karinchak, if he can reign in the walks he would immediately become one of the best relievers in the game. I imagine an improvement in walk rates is hard to project as it requires a concentrated change in mechanics, pitch selection, and/or mindset that isn’t really possible to predict. That said, his projections have his flyball tendencies catchuping to him, allowing more homeruns, not improving his walk rate, and ultimately allowing too many baserunners and runs. Minnesota Twins I’m going to take a little bit of a different take on the Twins part of this article as we already have a lot of great resources for you to read about. In short, the Twins have the depth to put pitchers in spots that they can succeed with the additions of Alex Colomé and Hansel Robles and have significantly improved one of the best bullpens in baseball. Download attachment: Twins.png Parker Hageman provided really good insight on Colomé here and here. Although written back in August, Matthew Trueblood did an excellent job of dissecting Taylor Rogers issues in 2020 here. Cooper Carlson and JD Cameron wrote quick hitters in Robles here and here, respectively. Duffey, who was recently ranked the 9th best reliever by MLB Network, isn’t getting the love from Twins Daily-ers. In reality, it’s more likely the writers at Twins Daily were ahead of the curve on identifying him as one of baseball’s best relievers in 2019 and haven’t needed to publish articles convincing the Twins fans otherwise. The projections do show some regression, but I think it can’t be understated how the Twins will be able to put their best relievers in the best positions this year. I expect another outstanding season from the Duff. If you want to take a look at the other names you’ll see pitch in 2021, I projected the Twins bullpen here, which was after the Colomé and Robles signings, but before it was announced that Thorpe was granted a fourth option. Grade ‘Em I didn’t cover every name in every bullpen...this article was long enough! That said, feel free to check out the ZiPS and Steamer projections to see how the rest of the bullpen fares for each team! Detroit Tigers: D The Tigers bullpen doesn’t look pretty but they do have some youn arms with upside that were mentioned in this article, which is really what you need as a non-competitive team. Cleveland: C+ It’s interesting to me that Cleveland is going to have a solid bullpen heading into 2021 despite no plans of competing. I mean I understand that your entire team can’t be awful, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Maton dealt at the deadline if he’s having a good year. Chicago White Sox: A- The only thing keeping this bullpen from an A are some of the question marks I mentioned surround Marshall and Bummer. That said, even if those two were to falter the White Sox have plenty of weapons to be one of the best bullpens in baseball. Although they lack depth at just about every position, they excel in their bullpen with the likes of Jimmy Cordero, Codi Heuer, and top 100 prospect Garret Crochet at the front end. The one thing I will say is this...Colomé was very good for them over the last two seasons so although Hendriks is inarguably an upgrade, it’s not like they were relying on Fernando Rodney to close out games. Kansas City Royals: C- The top end of the Royals bullpen doesn’t look too bad with the aforementioned names, especially if Staumont can clean things up a bit. They do have some nice pieces to fill-in the gaps with Kyle Zimmer, and like I mentioned before, have enough pitching prospects that we could see them enter the mix at some point this year. Minnesota Twins: B+ I still question the front end of the Twins bullpen and, even at the back end, Hansel Robles isn’t guaranteed to bounce back to his 2019 form. Stashak has been serviceable but has only pitched 40 big league innings while everything says Alcala and Thielbar are legit but again that was only over 20 and 24 innings, respectively. I’m not counting on significant regression from the aforementioned names but that’s what kept them from grading out to an A- for me. How do you feel about the White Sox and Twins bullpens heading into the season? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  4. The Rundown Reliever is arguably the hardest position to predict or project, as a vast majority of elite relievers have very short life span, and even if you’re not elite your results can vary pretty drastically from year to year. The Twins are all too familiar with this as Taylor Rogers was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2019 but then really struggled in 2020. On the other hand, Tyler Duffey was very good in 2019 and had an even better 2020 season. Now that’s not to say that relievers cannot be counted on from year to year. Over the last couple of seasons the Twins have relied on sturdy veterans like Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo who have a combined 24 seasons of relief experience and have accrued 19.4 fWAR between them. With all of that said, I will be utilizing savant profiles and projection models (i.e. ZiPS and Steamer) more than previous statistics to preview and grade the top 3-4 arms in each American League Central team's bullpen. It’s not exact science but I think those resources will provide a better idea than past results. Let’s dive in. Detroit Tigers As is the new norm, Steamer projects the Tigers using a rotation at closer that might also include Joe Jiminez, although he’s never been overly effective in his career. The Tigers do have some up and coming starters, but their bullpen isn’t going to be good in 2021 and is headlined by Buck Farmer, Bryan Garcia, and Gregory Soto. Check out their 2020 savant profiles below...it ain’t pretty. Farmer’s 2020 savant profile doesn’t quite do him justice as he’s more capable of missing bats than his 10th percentile ranking would indicate, while also being more susceptible to walks. His fastball was about two miles-per-hour slower than in 2019 and he pounded the zone a bit more in 2020, which when put together may be why hitters hit him hard last season. Garcia has thrown a total of 461 pitches at the big league level which makes him dually hard to project, but one thing that is clear is that control is always an issue of his. He was successful in 2020 by allowing a lot of soft contact and ground balls, but hitters will quickly learn to make him throw strikes which could be troublesome if he’s not able to locate his pitches on the edges of the zone. Soto is Garcia except with much, much better “stuff”. He has a smaller sample size than Soto and has produced markedly different results in two years as a pro. He was downright awful in 2019 but then showed some promise in 2020 with an xERA of 3.70 and dropping his opponent xwOBA by 100 points. If he can reign in the walks, which neither ZiPS or Steamer project him to do in 2020, he could be their best reliever. Cleveland On paper you might look at the Cleveland bullpen and, aside from James Karinchak, ask ‘who’?? And although Cleveland is at the early stages of their sudden rebuild, their bullpen is actually still in decent shape. It’s not the dominant Cleveland bullpen we’ve come accustomed to over the last few years, but I think they’ll be better than they look if you go by name recognition. It will be interesting to see how Karinchak’s career develops over the next few years. At only 25 years old and just 32.1 innings under his belt, his lack of control has been an issue from the time he entered the Cleveland organization in 2017. Despite this, he consistently posted beyond elite strikeout numbers and flew through the system debuting at the end of 2019. Even considering his elite whiff and contact rates, you have to wonder if hitters will start challenging him to throw strikes and how he will respond. I was somewhat surprised when I saw Maton’s Savant profile as compared to his previous statistics. In his four year career, his numbers are mostly pedestrian despite his Savant profile ranking him in the 80th and 90th percentiles nearly across the board. His projections would agree has all of them have him posting career best numbers this year. Clase missed 2020 due to a PED suspension but threw 23.1 efficient innings in 2019. The 22-year-old rookie will be a force to be reckoned with as he can consistently pump triple digits and does so while limiting walks, but not creating the strikeouts you might assume. Most of his projections have him striking out one batter inning, but you have to think the organization that has developed some elite pitchers in recent years will change that. Chicago White Sox The White Sox already had a solid bullpen in 2020 and then went and added the best reliever in the game in Liam Hendriks. Before teams get to Hendriks they will have to first get through the formidable duo of Aaron Bummer and Evan Marshall along with other very capable relievers. We know Hendriks is very good, and he has been covered well by our Twins Daily crew this offseason. In lieu of restating others' work, feel free to revisit these articles… Why Did the Twins Let Liam Hendriks Go? by Cody Christie Potential Twins Bullpen Target: Liam Hendriks by Andrew Thares ...while also remembering the article I linked earlier on why I was okay with missing out in Hendriks. Bummer missed the majority of the 2020 season with left biceps soreness which is why I used his 2019 savant profile. He’s a hard throwing lefty who doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs and will need to limit walks to reach his full potential. His projections show some regression from 2019 as his expected values (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) don’t quite match his contact rates. Nonetheless, he’ll still be a solid option to bridge the gap between the starter and Marshall/Hendriks. It’s taken a while for Marshall to get here, and he’s only been “here”...read as ‘a very good reliever’....for the last 35 innings of his career outside of a hot start to the 2019 season. Although his Savant profile is impressive, most of his projections have him regressing a little bit on his 2020 numbers striking out fewer batters while walking more. Kansas City Royals The Royals bullpen is going to be a rough one this year although they do have some decent arms to close out games. They are lead by Scott Barlow, Greg Holland, and Josh Staumont but after that it gets pretty thin quick. Their prospect pool at pitcher is extremely deep and many are projected to make their debuts in 2021, so it’s possible they temporarily convert a couple of their arms to relievers. Barlow has been a solid yet unspectacular reliever for the Royals over the last three seasons. He has a nice fastball, slider mix that he can locate while striking out a good amount of batters. He can be a little susceptible to the long ball for a reliever, but might be the most reliable arm they have heading into 2021 as his projects to be their best reliever. Holland had a really nice 2020 season that is supported by his Savant profile. I’m surprised to see that all of the projections model show a considerable regression in his ERA and FIP, although his 2020 groundball and home run rates weren’t totally inline with his career norms which could partially affect this. He’s lost considerable umph from his fastball over the years as he now sits low-90’s and has become more reliant on his slider. I feel like I’ve profiled Staumont already when I wrote up my blurb on Karinchak. He throws hard, generates lots of whiffs but walks way too many batters and, like Karinchak, if he can reign in the walks he would immediately become one of the best relievers in the game. I imagine an improvement in walk rates is hard to project as it requires a concentrated change in mechanics, pitch selection, and/or mindset that isn’t really possible to predict. That said, his projections have his flyball tendencies catchuping to him, allowing more homeruns, not improving his walk rate, and ultimately allowing too many baserunners and runs. Minnesota Twins I’m going to take a little bit of a different take on the Twins part of this article as we already have a lot of great resources for you to read about. In short, the Twins have the depth to put pitchers in spots that they can succeed with the additions of Alex Colomé and Hansel Robles and have significantly improved one of the best bullpens in baseball. Parker Hageman provided really good insight on Colomé here and here. Although written back in August, Matthew Trueblood did an excellent job of dissecting Taylor Rogers issues in 2020 here. Cooper Carlson and JD Cameron wrote quick hitters in Robles here and here, respectively. Duffey, who was recently ranked the 9th best reliever by MLB Network, isn’t getting the love from Twins Daily-ers. In reality, it’s more likely the writers at Twins Daily were ahead of the curve on identifying him as one of baseball’s best relievers in 2019 and haven’t needed to publish articles convincing the Twins fans otherwise. The projections do show some regression, but I think it can’t be understated how the Twins will be able to put their best relievers in the best positions this year. I expect another outstanding season from the Duff. If you want to take a look at the other names you’ll see pitch in 2021, I projected the Twins bullpen here, which was after the Colomé and Robles signings, but before it was announced that Thorpe was granted a fourth option. Grade ‘Em I didn’t cover every name in every bullpen...this article was long enough! That said, feel free to check out the ZiPS and Steamer projections to see how the rest of the bullpen fares for each team! Detroit Tigers: D The Tigers bullpen doesn’t look pretty but they do have some youn arms with upside that were mentioned in this article, which is really what you need as a non-competitive team. Cleveland: C+ It’s interesting to me that Cleveland is going to have a solid bullpen heading into 2021 despite no plans of competing. I mean I understand that your entire team can’t be awful, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Maton dealt at the deadline if he’s having a good year. Chicago White Sox: A- The only thing keeping this bullpen from an A are some of the question marks I mentioned surround Marshall and Bummer. That said, even if those two were to falter the White Sox have plenty of weapons to be one of the best bullpens in baseball. Although they lack depth at just about every position, they excel in their bullpen with the likes of Jimmy Cordero, Codi Heuer, and top 100 prospect Garret Crochet at the front end. The one thing I will say is this...Colomé was very good for them over the last two seasons so although Hendriks is inarguably an upgrade, it’s not like they were relying on Fernando Rodney to close out games. Kansas City Royals: C- The top end of the Royals bullpen doesn’t look too bad with the aforementioned names, especially if Staumont can clean things up a bit. They do have some nice pieces to fill-in the gaps with Kyle Zimmer, and like I mentioned before, have enough pitching prospects that we could see them enter the mix at some point this year. Minnesota Twins: B+ I still question the front end of the Twins bullpen and, even at the back end, Hansel Robles isn’t guaranteed to bounce back to his 2019 form. Stashak has been serviceable but has only pitched 40 big league innings while everything says Alcala and Thielbar are legit but again that was only over 20 and 24 innings, respectively. I’m not counting on significant regression from the aforementioned names but that’s what kept them from grading out to an A- for me. How do you feel about the White Sox and Twins bullpens heading into the season? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  5. Slow news day overall but we have our first sign that Twins baseball is around the corner. Get updated on the day's events in today’s notebook.WE HAVE OUR FIRST PROBABLE PITCHER Smeltzer will be looking to compete for a spot in the rotation or bullpen. Somewhat of an afterthought with the signing of Shoemaker, and before that many penciling Randy Dobnak or even Lewis Thorpe in the starting rotation, Smeltzer could find himself in St. Paul to start the year. Topping out in the high 80’s, Smeltzer will likely find a hard time contributing at the big league level. He does have elite spin rates and vertical movement on his change up which could be serviceable out of the bullpen as a change of pace type. I just don’t see that happening on a team competing for a World Series. Twins to roll with a “closer-less” bullpen This shouldn’t be breaking news as Baldelli mentions he’s never named a closer. Especially this year, the Twins have the necessary depth in Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, and Hansel Robles to not worry less about what inning to call-in for help. Instead, they can put each player in a position to succeed by pitching to their strengths. This will be outlined in more detail on the last installment of the AL Central Rundown that’s been grading out each position for each team in the division over the last week. Kirilloff, named #1 prospect by Twins Daily, “ready for the Majors” Not any big news here, but on a slow news day this article on MLB.com is another resource for what should be the most followed position battle in Spring Training. Former Twins pitcher Tommy Milone signs Minor League with Blue Jays Milone, who pitched for the Orioles and Braves last season, will be a non-roster invite to Spring Training. He started 9 games in 2020 and had an ERA of 6.69 of 39 innings. Dan Hayes has beef with John Fogerty Okay, maybe I mislead you with the headline but this poses a good question to discuss in the comments. What is YOUR favorite ballpark tune? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  6. WE HAVE OUR FIRST PROBABLE PITCHER https://twitter.com/millerstrib/status/1365017865368313870?s=21 Smeltzer will be looking to compete for a spot in the rotation or bullpen. Somewhat of an afterthought with the signing of Shoemaker, and before that many penciling Randy Dobnak or even Lewis Thorpe in the starting rotation, Smeltzer could find himself in St. Paul to start the year. Topping out in the high 80’s, Smeltzer will likely find a hard time contributing at the big league level. He does have elite spin rates and vertical movement on his change up which could be serviceable out of the bullpen as a change of pace type. I just don’t see that happening on a team competing for a World Series. Twins to roll with a “closer-less” bullpen https://twitter.com/aarongleeman/status/1364983101508579331?s=21 This shouldn’t be breaking news as Baldelli mentions he’s never named a closer. Especially this year, the Twins have the necessary depth in Taylor Rogers, Alex Colomé, Tyler Duffey, and Hansel Robles to not worry less about what inning to call-in for help. Instead, they can put each player in a position to succeed by pitching to their strengths. This will be outlined in more detail on the last installment of the AL Central Rundown that’s been grading out each position for each team in the division over the last week. Kirilloff, named #1 prospect by Twins Daily, “ready for the Majors” Not any big news here, but on a slow news day this article on MLB.com is another resource for what should be the most followed position battle in Spring Training. Former Twins pitcher Tommy Milone signs Minor League with Blue Jays https://twitter.com/feinsand/status/1365074508185501705?s=21 Milone, who pitched for the Orioles and Braves last season, will be a non-roster invite to Spring Training. He started 9 games in 2020 and had an ERA of 6.69 of 39 innings. Dan Hayes has beef with John Fogerty https://twitter.com/danhayesmlb/status/1364971359772753926?s=21 Okay, maybe I mislead you with the headline but this poses a good question to discuss in the comments. What is YOUR favorite ballpark tune? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  7. For this installment of the series, we will take a look at the shortstops around the division. Who is the best shortstop now that Lindor is with the Mets? Let's dive in and find out.The Rundown Outside of the Twins, the state of shortstop in the American League Central doesn’t look good for 2021. That said, four of the five shortstops are 27 or younger and are still looking to develop into better assets for their respective clubs and could brighten the outlook in the years to come. While the Twins are waiting on the arrival of former first overall pick, Royce Lewis, they will employ arguably the game's greatest defensive shortstop in its history. Although he’s below average offensively, he’ll actually also rank as one of the top options within the division making him the best shortstop in the division. Before we dive in too deep there, let’s take a look at what the rest of the division has to offer at the six. Detroit Tigers The Tigers will hand over the starting shortstop gig to their former 11th rated prospect who finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting last season. Willi Castro had a very nice rookie season in 2020 while splitting time with Niko Goodrum at short as he slashed .349/.381/.550 with a wRC+ of 150 and accumulating 1.3 fWAR, although his BABIP (.448) and Savant profile (below) show us that these numbers probably aren’t sustainable. Download attachment: Willi Castro Savant.png Based on his minor league numbers and scouting report, he figures to be a solid everyday player for years to come, but is only 23-years old so I wouldn’t be surprised to see quite a bit of regression in 2021 with a bigger sample size of opportunities. Cleveland We are well into the destruction of the Cleveland roster as Francisco Lindor was dealt to the New York Mets leaving only Jose Ramirez looking around wondering when his time will come. Along with a few prospects, Lindor’s replacement at the position was included in the deal in what will be a significant downgrade. Amed Rosario, who somehow is only 25-years-old, brings a career slash line of .268/.302/.403 and a walk rate of just 4.3-percent. For reference, Miguel Sano’s career walk rate is almost triple that mark, although Rosario doesn’t strikeout nearly as often. Twins pitchers will be busier worry about Eddie Rosario more than Amed Rosario. On top of his below average hitting, he’s not going to wow you in the field either as he’s accrued -35 defensive runs saved in over 3,000 innings at short while saving negative six outs above average over the last two seasons. Lindor is a very good defender so Rosario will be a definite downgrade on the defensive side of the ball as well. Chicago White Sox After winning the batting title in 2019, most assumed there would be some regression in 2020 as a BABIP of .399 and a poor hard hit rate isn’t really sustainable. Although he didn’t win the batting in 2020, he basically repeated the same numbers with a .383 BABIP, .322 batting average, and poor hard hit rates. With xBA’s of .296 and .293 in each of the last two seasons, I would still bet on some regression but as you can tell by his xBA’s he is a solid hitter. Like Rosario, his walk rate and defense are both pretty poor which will limit his ceiling as a star...especially if he sees that regression on the offensive side. Specifically, he struggles with balls in the hole between short and third where he has an estimated success rate of 69-percent, according to Savant, which is considerably less than any other location. What I found odd is the changes in his average starting position throughout his career. Download attachment: Tim Anderson GIF.gif As you can see, over the course of his career he has shifted closer to 2nd base which is the opposite of the adjustment I’d think he’d make, especially with Yoán Moncada at third. The Twins hitters will be able to take advantage of the left side of the infield which will likely be the case for years to come. Kansas City Royals Adalberto Mondesi enters his third season as the full-time shortstop for the Royals where he would have been considered the best defensive shortstop in the division before the Twins added Simmons. His defense is his calling card as he boasts a career batting average of .251 and, stop me if you’ve heard this before, an awful walk rate which tanks his on base percentage. The scouting report on Mondesi likely reads, don’t give him anything to hit and he’ll still swing. He’s a speedster, finishing in the 98th percentile of sprint speed, which helps him defensively but also at the plate where he has the ninth most bunt hits of players with at least 650 at-bats over the last two years despite having 50 or more fewer at bats than the eight in front of him. Thanks to the next guy on this list, the Twins infield defense should be able to limit his knack to get on base while keeping the ball in the infield. Minnesota Twins At 31-years old Simmons is the elder statesman of the group and the departure of Lindor makes him the best all-around shortstop in the division. It’s been well documented that defense is Simmons’ calling card (check here, here, here, and/or here), so let's take a look at what he brings offensively. Download attachment: Simmons Savant GIF.gif As you saw above the offensive side of his game isn’t much to write home about, but he is a respectable enough hitter as he’s only had one season with an OPS below .660. He doesn’t offer much for power has he’s ranked in the bottom five-percent of the league in xSLG in each of the last two seasons, but he’s one of the best in the league in putting the ball in play and is considered “below average” at drawing walks...an improvement over all the other shortstops in the division. Opposing pitchers throw more than a quarter of their pitches low and away as he has a batting average of .211 combined in those corner four zones. Download attachment: Simmons BA by Zone.gif On the other hand, his strength is pitches on the inner half of the plate which explains his tendency to pull the ball or hit back up the middle. In a division that is full of suspect defense at short, his tendencies at the plate may result in an improved offensive performance in 2021. Grade ‘Em Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-18 at 9.01.34 PM.png Detroit Tigers: D+ ZiPS projects Castro to accrue 2.2 WAR in 2021 with an OPS .759, but I think he’ll face added regression in 2021 and still needs a few more years of experience to become a more reliable asset for the Tigers. For me, his age is what gives him the slight edge over Rosario in the competition for worst shortstop in the division. Cleveland: D Although Rosario is only 25-years-old, he’s had enough experience in the bigs to know what to expect out of him. He’ll give you a little bit of batting average and power but not much else on either side of the ball. ZiPS has him at an OPS of .748, which he did eclipse in 2019, but that was when the ball was alive more than ever...I don’t expect a repeat in 2021. Chicago White Sox: B+ Anderson has his faults, but you can’t deny his knack for getting hits and providing a little power in the southside of Chicago. Although I think regression is inevitable, ZiPS projects him for a .793 OPS in 2021 which would likely be the best in the division at the position. Kansas City Royals: C+ Like Rosario, I think Mondesi is what he is at this point. He’s a solid yet unspectacular everyday player who will hit .250 and be a threat on the basepaths with his speed. He’ll be an above average defender which is what will likely keep him in the lineup on nearly a daily basis. Minnesota Twins: A I’m sure some were thinking an A+ here, but I can’t get past Simmons offensive limitations. Honestly, his historic defensive ability is what put him at an A instead of an A-. Either way, the Twins have the best shortstop in the division. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  8. The Rundown Outside of the Twins, the state of shortstop in the American League Central doesn’t look good for 2021. That said, four of the five shortstops are 27 or younger and are still looking to develop into better assets for their respective clubs and could brighten the outlook in the years to come. While the Twins are waiting on the arrival of former first overall pick, Royce Lewis, they will employ arguably the game's greatest defensive shortstop in its history. Although he’s below average offensively, he’ll actually also rank as one of the top options within the division making him the best shortstop in the division. Before we dive in too deep there, let’s take a look at what the rest of the division has to offer at the six. Detroit Tigers The Tigers will hand over the starting shortstop gig to their former 11th rated prospect who finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting last season. Willi Castro had a very nice rookie season in 2020 while splitting time with Niko Goodrum at short as he slashed .349/.381/.550 with a wRC+ of 150 and accumulating 1.3 fWAR, although his BABIP (.448) and Savant profile (below) show us that these numbers probably aren’t sustainable. Based on his minor league numbers and scouting report, he figures to be a solid everyday player for years to come, but is only 23-years old so I wouldn’t be surprised to see quite a bit of regression in 2021 with a bigger sample size of opportunities. Cleveland We are well into the destruction of the Cleveland roster as Francisco Lindor was dealt to the New York Mets leaving only Jose Ramirez looking around wondering when his time will come. Along with a few prospects, Lindor’s replacement at the position was included in the deal in what will be a significant downgrade. Amed Rosario, who somehow is only 25-years-old, brings a career slash line of .268/.302/.403 and a walk rate of just 4.3-percent. For reference, Miguel Sano’s career walk rate is almost triple that mark, although Rosario doesn’t strikeout nearly as often. Twins pitchers will be busier worry about Eddie Rosario more than Amed Rosario. On top of his below average hitting, he’s not going to wow you in the field either as he’s accrued -35 defensive runs saved in over 3,000 innings at short while saving negative six outs above average over the last two seasons. Lindor is a very good defender so Rosario will be a definite downgrade on the defensive side of the ball as well. Chicago White Sox After winning the batting title in 2019, most assumed there would be some regression in 2020 as a BABIP of .399 and a poor hard hit rate isn’t really sustainable. Although he didn’t win the batting in 2020, he basically repeated the same numbers with a .383 BABIP, .322 batting average, and poor hard hit rates. With xBA’s of .296 and .293 in each of the last two seasons, I would still bet on some regression but as you can tell by his xBA’s he is a solid hitter. Like Rosario, his walk rate and defense are both pretty poor which will limit his ceiling as a star...especially if he sees that regression on the offensive side. Specifically, he struggles with balls in the hole between short and third where he has an estimated success rate of 69-percent, according to Savant, which is considerably less than any other location. What I found odd is the changes in his average starting position throughout his career. As you can see, over the course of his career he has shifted closer to 2nd base which is the opposite of the adjustment I’d think he’d make, especially with Yoán Moncada at third. The Twins hitters will be able to take advantage of the left side of the infield which will likely be the case for years to come. Kansas City Royals Adalberto Mondesi enters his third season as the full-time shortstop for the Royals where he would have been considered the best defensive shortstop in the division before the Twins added Simmons. His defense is his calling card as he boasts a career batting average of .251 and, stop me if you’ve heard this before, an awful walk rate which tanks his on base percentage. The scouting report on Mondesi likely reads, don’t give him anything to hit and he’ll still swing. He’s a speedster, finishing in the 98th percentile of sprint speed, which helps him defensively but also at the plate where he has the ninth most bunt hits of players with at least 650 at-bats over the last two years despite having 50 or more fewer at bats than the eight in front of him. Thanks to the next guy on this list, the Twins infield defense should be able to limit his knack to get on base while keeping the ball in the infield. Minnesota Twins At 31-years old Simmons is the elder statesman of the group and the departure of Lindor makes him the best all-around shortstop in the division. It’s been well documented that defense is Simmons’ calling card (check here, here, here, and/or here), so let's take a look at what he brings offensively. As you saw above the offensive side of his game isn’t much to write home about, but he is a respectable enough hitter as he’s only had one season with an OPS below .660. He doesn’t offer much for power has he’s ranked in the bottom five-percent of the league in xSLG in each of the last two seasons, but he’s one of the best in the league in putting the ball in play and is considered “below average” at drawing walks...an improvement over all the other shortstops in the division. Opposing pitchers throw more than a quarter of their pitches low and away as he has a batting average of .211 combined in those corner four zones. On the other hand, his strength is pitches on the inner half of the plate which explains his tendency to pull the ball or hit back up the middle. In a division that is full of suspect defense at short, his tendencies at the plate may result in an improved offensive performance in 2021. Grade ‘Em Detroit Tigers: D+ ZiPS projects Castro to accrue 2.2 WAR in 2021 with an OPS .759, but I think he’ll face added regression in 2021 and still needs a few more years of experience to become a more reliable asset for the Tigers. For me, his age is what gives him the slight edge over Rosario in the competition for worst shortstop in the division. Cleveland: D Although Rosario is only 25-years-old, he’s had enough experience in the bigs to know what to expect out of him. He’ll give you a little bit of batting average and power but not much else on either side of the ball. ZiPS has him at an OPS of .748, which he did eclipse in 2019, but that was when the ball was alive more than ever...I don’t expect a repeat in 2021. Chicago White Sox: B+ Anderson has his faults, but you can’t deny his knack for getting hits and providing a little power in the southside of Chicago. Although I think regression is inevitable, ZiPS projects him for a .793 OPS in 2021 which would likely be the best in the division at the position. Kansas City Royals: C+ Like Rosario, I think Mondesi is what he is at this point. He’s a solid yet unspectacular everyday player who will hit .250 and be a threat on the basepaths with his speed. He’ll be an above average defender which is what will likely keep him in the lineup on nearly a daily basis. Minnesota Twins: A I’m sure some were thinking an A+ here, but I can’t get past Simmons offensive limitations. Honestly, his historic defensive ability is what put him at an A instead of an A-. Either way, the Twins have the best shortstop in the division. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  9. Derek Falvey was quoted as saying the Twins are “likely done adding big ticket contracts” this offseason, which gives us an idea of the Spring Training battles we’ll have this year. This is the second article that previews these battles with under a week until workouts begin.Earlier this week, I previewed the battle for the last rotation spot, and later this week I will look at the players competing for the last bench spot. The competition for left field is a very hard one to predict as there are many different layers to consider aside from just simply picking the best left fielder. Whether the players and fans like it or not, the service time game is always one factor while making sure guys are getting consistent at-bats is another factor. At the end of the day, we may end up seeing somewhat of a rotation or platoon in left field based on who’s hot, match ups, and the need to get some at-bats. Like the fifth starter piece, this article is not meant to make a prediction, but is to provide a quick snippet on each of the players competing for the spot. Jake Cave Of the undermentioned guys in this article, Cave has the most big league experience and has been a regular part of the active roster for the last three seasons. He’s been the primary beneficiary anytime Buxton has missed time and has found moderate success with a career OPS of .795 and 21 home runs over 481 at-bats through his first two seasons with the club. He had established himself as one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball before really struggling in 2020 and casting doubt on whether he could really sustain the production he previously had, especially with news that Major League Baseball is deadening the ball. Furthermore, he may have the least upside of the others he’s competing with. Realistically, I think Cave is better than the 2020 but worse than the 2019 versions of himself and will spend another year as a fourth outfielder with the Twins. Brent Rooker Before fracturing his forearm on Sept. 12, Rooker looked all the part of a Major League hitter through 21 plate appearances sporting a 161 wRC+ including a 390 no-doubter off of Daniel Ponce de Leon. Although a small sample size, I would think that Rooker’s early success would make him a front runner for the starting left field spot and slot in the middle third of the batting order. The Twins, likely planning for Rosario’s departure, had Rooker spend the 2019 season in left field, but he also has the experience to spell Miguel Sano at first from time-to-time which gives him an edge in the competition. They aren’t going to keep Rooker on the active roster to sit on the bench, so if he makes the team expect him to get a lot of reps in left field. All that said, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows when it comes to Rooker who has always been susceptible to strikeouts and, according to his scouting report on MLB.com, doesn’t project to be a very good defensive player. As promising as the first 21 at-bats looked, he will undoubtedly face some of the same swoons and criticism that has plagued Sano throughout his career while offering less power although does have a better knack at drawing walks. Rooker’s calling card is and likely always will be his hitting, which is why I really like having Cruz back, so it will be important he learns to adjust to Major League pitching and cut down on the strikeouts. Luis Arráez With the addition of Andrelton Simmons, Arráez all of a sudden found himself as the odd man out of a starting role as it’s expected that Jorge Polanco will slide over and be the everyday second basemen. Although he may lose some at-bats over the entire season, we will likely see Arráez in the line up on nearly a daily basis as he has previously established himself as a versatile defender which includes left field. He actually spent 161.0 innings in left field in 2019 and ended up with a UZR/150 of 3.6 per FanGraphs, and although that’s too small of a sample to project it’s worth noting that FanGraphs defines that as being “average”. Aside from currently being the most passable option in left field, ZiPS projects him to win the batting title in 2021 which also makes him the best option offensively of the group. I’d imagine that Arráez will still get most of his at bats from Polanco, Simmons, and Josh Donaldson needing rest days but he could also be a nice platoon type against righties if Rooker is the other left field option. Prospects Rooker is still technically a rookie/prospect, but being that he had already debuted in 2020 and would likely have exceeded the minimum 150 at-bats if not for breaking his forearm he was left out of this group. The Twins have Alex Kirilloff (#26 prospect in all of baseball), Trevor Larnach (#80 prospect in all of baseball), and Travis Blankenhorn (#17 Twins prospect in 2020) who are all ready for their shot at the big leagues despite the circumstances of 2020. The challenge of having any one of these guys on the roster, Rooker included, is making sure they are getting consistent playing time, as it would be wasteful to have them sitting on the bench more than once or twice a week. Kirilloff, of course, became the first player ever to make their Major League debut by starting in a playoff game. Furthermore, he is probably the long term solution to left field and expected to be a major part of the Twins organization moving forward. On top of playing either corner outfield position, he’s actually played some first base which gives the Twins some nice versatility. I think the only thing that keeps him off the opening day roster is the Twins playing the service time game, but I’d suspect that we will see him some time this season. Larnach probably isn’t quite as ready for the Big Leagues as Kiriloff as he’s only had 43 games above High-A ball back in 2019. That said, he has a lot of the same hype and expectations as Kiriloff despite being drafted two years after him. He’s in a tough spot as he’s probably behind the aforementioned players on the depth chart while also competing with Royce Lewis (#17 prospect in all of baseball) who is primarily a middle infielder, but does have some outfield experience. More to come on that ... Blankenhorn doesn’t have the tools to be an everyday outfielder but will still be competing for a roster spot as a super utility. That said, with Arráez and (probably) Rooker as utility options for the Twins I don’t see him getting at-bats he would need for the Twins. He’s still only 24-years-old and may be the Marwin Gonzalez type for the future, but he’s stuck behind the same group Larnach is. Free Agents I think most would be shocked if the Twins made any other moves outside of a relief pitcher, but there also isn’t really anyone out there outside of Jackie Bradley Jr. The Twins already have a logjam in the outfield so signing a free agent just wouldn’t make sense. Trading for a Starter One thing I’ll briefly expand upon, is the logjam the Twins currently have and the possible need of improving the rotation at some point. Happ and Shoemaker are solid adds and could provide a lot of value, but the Twins have some young, intriguing prospects mentioned in this article that could allow them to add an even better arm at the deadline. Time will tell. Who would you like to see in left field? One player specifically or a rotation of players? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  10. Earlier this week, I previewed the battle for the last rotation spot, and later this week I will look at the players competing for the last bench spot. The competition for left field is a very hard one to predict as there are many different layers to consider aside from just simply picking the best left fielder. Whether the players and fans like it or not, the service time game is always one factor while making sure guys are getting consistent at-bats is another factor. At the end of the day, we may end up seeing somewhat of a rotation or platoon in left field based on who’s hot, match ups, and the need to get some at-bats. Like the fifth starter piece, this article is not meant to make a prediction, but is to provide a quick snippet on each of the players competing for the spot. Jake Cave Of the undermentioned guys in this article, Cave has the most big league experience and has been a regular part of the active roster for the last three seasons. He’s been the primary beneficiary anytime Buxton has missed time and has found moderate success with a career OPS of .795 and 21 home runs over 481 at-bats through his first two seasons with the club. He had established himself as one of the better fourth outfielders in baseball before really struggling in 2020 and casting doubt on whether he could really sustain the production he previously had, especially with news that Major League Baseball is deadening the ball. Furthermore, he may have the least upside of the others he’s competing with. Realistically, I think Cave is better than the 2020 but worse than the 2019 versions of himself and will spend another year as a fourth outfielder with the Twins. Brent Rooker Before fracturing his forearm on Sept. 12, Rooker looked all the part of a Major League hitter through 21 plate appearances sporting a 161 wRC+ including a 390 no-doubter off of Daniel Ponce de Leon. Although a small sample size, I would think that Rooker’s early success would make him a front runner for the starting left field spot and slot in the middle third of the batting order. The Twins, likely planning for Rosario’s departure, had Rooker spend the 2019 season in left field, but he also has the experience to spell Miguel Sano at first from time-to-time which gives him an edge in the competition. They aren’t going to keep Rooker on the active roster to sit on the bench, so if he makes the team expect him to get a lot of reps in left field. All that said, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows when it comes to Rooker who has always been susceptible to strikeouts and, according to his scouting report on MLB.com, doesn’t project to be a very good defensive player. As promising as the first 21 at-bats looked, he will undoubtedly face some of the same swoons and criticism that has plagued Sano throughout his career while offering less power although does have a better knack at drawing walks. Rooker’s calling card is and likely always will be his hitting, which is why I really like having Cruz back, so it will be important he learns to adjust to Major League pitching and cut down on the strikeouts. Luis Arráez With the addition of Andrelton Simmons, Arráez all of a sudden found himself as the odd man out of a starting role as it’s expected that Jorge Polanco will slide over and be the everyday second basemen. Although he may lose some at-bats over the entire season, we will likely see Arráez in the line up on nearly a daily basis as he has previously established himself as a versatile defender which includes left field. He actually spent 161.0 innings in left field in 2019 and ended up with a UZR/150 of 3.6 per FanGraphs, and although that’s too small of a sample to project it’s worth noting that FanGraphs defines that as being “average”. Aside from currently being the most passable option in left field, ZiPS projects him to win the batting title in 2021 which also makes him the best option offensively of the group. I’d imagine that Arráez will still get most of his at bats from Polanco, Simmons, and Josh Donaldson needing rest days but he could also be a nice platoon type against righties if Rooker is the other left field option. Prospects Rooker is still technically a rookie/prospect, but being that he had already debuted in 2020 and would likely have exceeded the minimum 150 at-bats if not for breaking his forearm he was left out of this group. The Twins have Alex Kirilloff (#26 prospect in all of baseball), Trevor Larnach (#80 prospect in all of baseball), and Travis Blankenhorn (#17 Twins prospect in 2020) who are all ready for their shot at the big leagues despite the circumstances of 2020. The challenge of having any one of these guys on the roster, Rooker included, is making sure they are getting consistent playing time, as it would be wasteful to have them sitting on the bench more than once or twice a week. Kirilloff, of course, became the first player ever to make their Major League debut by starting in a playoff game. Furthermore, he is probably the long term solution to left field and expected to be a major part of the Twins organization moving forward. On top of playing either corner outfield position, he’s actually played some first base which gives the Twins some nice versatility. I think the only thing that keeps him off the opening day roster is the Twins playing the service time game, but I’d suspect that we will see him some time this season. Larnach probably isn’t quite as ready for the Big Leagues as Kiriloff as he’s only had 43 games above High-A ball back in 2019. That said, he has a lot of the same hype and expectations as Kiriloff despite being drafted two years after him. He’s in a tough spot as he’s probably behind the aforementioned players on the depth chart while also competing with Royce Lewis (#17 prospect in all of baseball) who is primarily a middle infielder, but does have some outfield experience. More to come on that ... Blankenhorn doesn’t have the tools to be an everyday outfielder but will still be competing for a roster spot as a super utility. That said, with Arráez and (probably) Rooker as utility options for the Twins I don’t see him getting at-bats he would need for the Twins. He’s still only 24-years-old and may be the Marwin Gonzalez type for the future, but he’s stuck behind the same group Larnach is. Free Agents I think most would be shocked if the Twins made any other moves outside of a relief pitcher, but there also isn’t really anyone out there outside of Jackie Bradley Jr. The Twins already have a logjam in the outfield so signing a free agent just wouldn’t make sense. Trading for a Starter One thing I’ll briefly expand upon, is the logjam the Twins currently have and the possible need of improving the rotation at some point. Happ and Shoemaker are solid adds and could provide a lot of value, but the Twins have some young, intriguing prospects mentioned in this article that could allow them to add an even better arm at the deadline. Time will tell. Who would you like to see in left field? One player specifically or a rotation of players? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  11. Derek Falvey was quoted as saying the Twins are “likely done adding big ticket contracts” this offseason, which gives us an idea of the Spring Training battles we’ll have this year. This article will be the first in a short series previewing those spring training battles.In the coming days we will look at the battle for left field, as well as the last bench spot. But first, let’s take a look at the candidates for the last spot in the rotation. On Thursday, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson said the Twins have an offer out to veteran right hander Matt Shoemaker who, I don’t believe, would be a lock for the fifth spot if he was signed by the club. Shoemaker, who has been very good when healthy, hasn’t had a healthy season in four years so there is inherent risk in signing him that will still make for an intriguing battle between the current options on the Twins roster. If Shoemaker does sign with the club, I would make him the odds on favorite to win the job but that’s not a guarantee ... you might recall that the Twins signed Anibal Sanchez in 2018 and released him a month later after struggling through Spring Training. Wolfson stated that there were multiple teams interested in Shoemaker, so if he does decide to sign somewhere else then who will compete for that fifth spot? Randy Dobnak After a productive start to his career in 2019 and the first half of 2020, the wheels really fell off for Dobnak which led to getting sent down to the alternate site and being left off the postseason roster last year. I’ve always been a bit wary of Dobnak’s production as it seemed too good to be true, which you can read about in more detail here, and have the same concerns heading into this season. His Savant profile from 2020, seen below, is fairly concerning and moreover his most oft used pitch (fastball/sinker) was normally spotted really well in the bottom corners of the zone yet batters had a xwOBA of .342 against the pitch. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-13 at 9.02.52 PM.png All of that said, out of the undermentioned options the Twins have, Dobnak does boast the strongest track record, and the reconfiguration of the infield plays right into his strengths. You see, over the last two seasons, Dobnak has the second best ground ball percentage of all starters who have pitched 70 innings or more and would benefit greatly from the addition of Simmons and Polanco sliding over to second base. If the Twins don’t get Shoemaker, Dobnak will probably be the favorite to be the fifth starter in 2021. Lewis Thorpe Thorpe had a very rough 2020 season both personally and professionally, which was detailed by Twins Daily own Cody Pirkl back in October, and this was following a 2019 where he posted an ERA of 6.18 over 27 2/3 innings pitched. I guess you could say Thorpe has had a rough start to his 44 inning career to this point, BUT we should not forget that he is only 25-years-old and just two years ago was the Twins #11 rated prospect by Major League Baseball. Furthermore, he peaked as the Twins #9 prospect in 2014 and his scouting report read “... Thorpe could be the best to come from Down Under,” which speaks to how highly thought of he once was, but then missed 2015 and 2016 due to Tommy John surgery and contracting mono during rehab. Thorpe has A LOT to prove and will be entering the most pivotal Spring Training of his career as he is out of Minor League options, but that might actually play into his favor as the Twins would need to designate him for assignment which would allow another team to snag him. If he and Dobnak are viewed similarly by the time the season starts, you could see the Twins give him the first opportunity at the back end of the rotation as a “one last shot” situation. Thorpe is truly a wild card, but has a higher ceiling and similar floor compared to Dobank which makes me lean towards giving him the first shot in the rotation. Prospects Although long shots, it’s worth mentioning that Jordan Balazovic (#97 prospect in baseball) and Jhoan Duran (#5 Twins prospect) will also have opportunities to compete for the last rotation spot. That said, a combination of the service time game, a jumbled 2020 season, and neither having much experience above High-A tells me this is highly unlikely. That said, they have some upside and will be fun to see where they are at in their Spring Training opportunities. For Duran, I wouldn’t rule out seeing him in a reliever role at some point in 2021 if the Twins deal with some injuries. Free Agents We’ve already talked about Shoemaker and mentioned that Falvey doesn’t see the Twins adding any more “big ticket contracts.” But for fun, I would love to see Jake Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker added to the mix. Odorizzi would slot ahead of Happ (*whispers* and maybe Berrios) making him the fifth starter, while Walker would likely compete for the fifth starter job with the aforementioned names in this article. Trading for a Starter The Twins are loaded. Keith Law has them as the eighth best Minor League system in the majors and having a surplus of quality outfield prospects in the minors that may be ready for The Show. I don’t foresee a trade happening anytime soon, but the Twins have the assets to add a quality arm if one becomes available at the trade deadline. Who do you think wins the fifth rotation spot? Do you believe in Dobnak? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  12. In the coming days we will look at the battle for left field, as well as the last bench spot. But first, let’s take a look at the candidates for the last spot in the rotation. On Thursday, KSTP’s Darren Wolfson said the Twins have an offer out to veteran right hander Matt Shoemaker who, I don’t believe, would be a lock for the fifth spot if he was signed by the club. Shoemaker, who has been very good when healthy, hasn’t had a healthy season in four years so there is inherent risk in signing him that will still make for an intriguing battle between the current options on the Twins roster. If Shoemaker does sign with the club, I would make him the odds on favorite to win the job but that’s not a guarantee ... you might recall that the Twins signed Anibal Sanchez in 2018 and released him a month later after struggling through Spring Training. Wolfson stated that there were multiple teams interested in Shoemaker, so if he does decide to sign somewhere else then who will compete for that fifth spot? Randy Dobnak After a productive start to his career in 2019 and the first half of 2020, the wheels really fell off for Dobnak which led to getting sent down to the alternate site and being left off the postseason roster last year. I’ve always been a bit wary of Dobnak’s production as it seemed too good to be true, which you can read about in more detail here, and have the same concerns heading into this season. His Savant profile from 2020, seen below, is fairly concerning and moreover his most oft used pitch (fastball/sinker) was normally spotted really well in the bottom corners of the zone yet batters had a xwOBA of .342 against the pitch. All of that said, out of the undermentioned options the Twins have, Dobnak does boast the strongest track record, and the reconfiguration of the infield plays right into his strengths. You see, over the last two seasons, Dobnak has the second best ground ball percentage of all starters who have pitched 70 innings or more and would benefit greatly from the addition of Simmons and Polanco sliding over to second base. If the Twins don’t get Shoemaker, Dobnak will probably be the favorite to be the fifth starter in 2021. Lewis Thorpe Thorpe had a very rough 2020 season both personally and professionally, which was detailed by Twins Daily own Cody Pirkl back in October, and this was following a 2019 where he posted an ERA of 6.18 over 27 2/3 innings pitched. I guess you could say Thorpe has had a rough start to his 44 inning career to this point, BUT we should not forget that he is only 25-years-old and just two years ago was the Twins #11 rated prospect by Major League Baseball. Furthermore, he peaked as the Twins #9 prospect in 2014 and his scouting report read “... Thorpe could be the best to come from Down Under,” which speaks to how highly thought of he once was, but then missed 2015 and 2016 due to Tommy John surgery and contracting mono during rehab. Thorpe has A LOT to prove and will be entering the most pivotal Spring Training of his career as he is out of Minor League options, but that might actually play into his favor as the Twins would need to designate him for assignment which would allow another team to snag him. If he and Dobnak are viewed similarly by the time the season starts, you could see the Twins give him the first opportunity at the back end of the rotation as a “one last shot” situation. Thorpe is truly a wild card, but has a higher ceiling and similar floor compared to Dobank which makes me lean towards giving him the first shot in the rotation. Prospects Although long shots, it’s worth mentioning that Jordan Balazovic (#97 prospect in baseball) and Jhoan Duran (#5 Twins prospect) will also have opportunities to compete for the last rotation spot. That said, a combination of the service time game, a jumbled 2020 season, and neither having much experience above High-A tells me this is highly unlikely. That said, they have some upside and will be fun to see where they are at in their Spring Training opportunities. For Duran, I wouldn’t rule out seeing him in a reliever role at some point in 2021 if the Twins deal with some injuries. Free Agents We’ve already talked about Shoemaker and mentioned that Falvey doesn’t see the Twins adding any more “big ticket contracts.” But for fun, I would love to see Jake Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker added to the mix. Odorizzi would slot ahead of Happ (*whispers* and maybe Berrios) making him the fifth starter, while Walker would likely compete for the fifth starter job with the aforementioned names in this article. Trading for a Starter The Twins are loaded. Keith Law has them as the eighth best Minor League system in the majors and having a surplus of quality outfield prospects in the minors that may be ready for The Show. I don’t foresee a trade happening anytime soon, but the Twins have the assets to add a quality arm if one becomes available at the trade deadline. Who do you think wins the fifth rotation spot? Do you believe in Dobnak? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  13. Four of the five AL Central teams made some moves today, including the Twins who have made an offer to a veteran starting pitcher.Twins have offer out to RHP Matt Shoemaker On Wednesday KSTP’s Darren Wolfson hinted that the Twins had an offer out to a starting pitcher and he’d reveal who on Thursday. Well, without further ado…. Shoemaker came onto the scene in 2014 with the Angels finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting to Chicago White Sox first baseman José Abreu. Aside from 2020, he’s been a pretty solid starter in the league when he’s healthy which hasn’t been the case for the last four seasons. Twins Daily own Andrew Thares took a deep dive into Shoemaker today that instills some intrigue in the veternal hurler as a possible final rotation piece. Twins claim OF Kyle Garlick; Designate LHP Brandon Waddell This is a total speculative add and there’s no guarantee his new roster spot isn’t at jeopardy as the Twins still need to make room for Alex Colomé. Check out Seth Stohs article regarding the Twins new 40-man roster member. News with ties to the Twins Former top prosect Andrew Benintendi dealt to the Royals The outfielder will join a good Royals offense and look to re-establish himself as one of baseball's up and coming stars. The former seventh overall pick had a strong start to his career but struggled in 2019 and really fell off in 2020. He still has two-years of team control but joins an up and coming team that is just waiting for some pitching to develop for the minors to start competing for the division. Cubs and Mets revisit deal involving Kris Bryant The Twins have never been formally tied to the former MVP but there’s no denying how well he fits with the club even after the Simmons signing. The Twins don’t have anyone penned in as the everyday left fielder and he could spell Josh Donaldson at third, as needed. Marwin Gonzalez signs with Red Sox The former Minnesota Twins super-utility takes a significant pay cut which was probably too be expected after two so-so seasons with the Twins and evidence showing that he benefited the most from the Astros cheating scandal. Former Royal, Billy Hamilton, back in the AL Central The speedster signed with Cleveland on a minor league contract and figures to compete for a fill-in outfielder role behind Eddie Rosario, Oscar Mercado, and Josh Naylor. Tigers add outfielder Nomar Mazara After debuting at 21-years old and finding moderate success pretty quickly, Mazara really struggled in the southside of Chicago. Still only 25-years old, the Tigers will give him an opportunity to get semi-regular at-bats in a platoon role while trying to re-establish himself as a promising young player. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  14. Twins have offer out to RHP Matt Shoemaker On Wednesday KSTP’s Darren Wolfson hinted that the Twins had an offer out to a starting pitcher and he’d reveal who on Thursday. Well, without further ado…. https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1359911547863240707 Shoemaker came onto the scene in 2014 with the Angels finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting to Chicago White Sox first baseman José Abreu. Aside from 2020, he’s been a pretty solid starter in the league when he’s healthy which hasn’t been the case for the last four seasons. Twins Daily own Andrew Thares took a deep dive into Shoemaker today that instills some intrigue in the veternal hurler as a possible final rotation piece. Twins claim OF Kyle Garlick; Designate LHP Brandon Waddell This is a total speculative add and there’s no guarantee his new roster spot isn’t at jeopardy as the Twins still need to make room for Alex Colomé. Check out Seth Stohs article regarding the Twins new 40-man roster member. News with ties to the Twins Former top prosect Andrew Benintendi dealt to the Royals https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1359682307850919939 The outfielder will join a good Royals offense and look to re-establish himself as one of baseball's up and coming stars. The former seventh overall pick had a strong start to his career but struggled in 2019 and really fell off in 2020. He still has two-years of team control but joins an up and coming team that is just waiting for some pitching to develop for the minors to start competing for the division. Cubs and Mets revisit deal involving Kris Bryant The Twins have never been formally tied to the former MVP but there’s no denying how well he fits with the club even after the Simmons signing. The Twins don’t have anyone penned in as the everyday left fielder and he could spell Josh Donaldson at third, as needed. Marwin Gonzalez signs with Red Sox https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1360031507197394944 The former Minnesota Twins super-utility takes a significant pay cut which was probably too be expected after two so-so seasons with the Twins and evidence showing that he benefited the most from the Astros cheating scandal. Former Royal, Billy Hamilton, back in the AL Central https://twitter.com/DanielAlvarezEE/status/1360014981513764870 The speedster signed with Cleveland on a minor league contract and figures to compete for a fill-in outfielder role behind Eddie Rosario, Oscar Mercado, and Josh Naylor. Tigers add outfielder Nomar Mazara https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1360019703171674113 After debuting at 21-years old and finding moderate success pretty quickly, Mazara really struggled in the southside of Chicago. Still only 25-years old, the Tigers will give him an opportunity to get semi-regular at-bats in a platoon role while trying to re-establish himself as a promising young player. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  15. It was exactly one year ago today that the Twins agreed to trade Brusdar Graterol to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Kenta Maeda. Let's take a look back at the last season for both players to deem how each team fared in the deal.After all the drama settled, and the Red Sox were left out of the equation, the Twins and Dodgers agreed to the following deal: Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-08 at 9.18.16 PM.png Camargo (21-years old) was signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent in 2015. In 665 minor league at-bats he has a .671 OPS with a strikeout rate of almost 29%, and has played 90-percent of his innings at catcher between rookie ball and lo-A. Raley (26-years old), who was dealt to the Twins as part of the Dozier trade in 2018, sports a .833 OPS but is only slightly less prone to strikeouts at about 26-percent of the time in 1,347 at-bats climbing as high as AAA in 2019. Per the 2020 MLB prospect rankings, neither player is in the top 30 of their respective clubs rankings. Being that these two players are at different points in their careers it’s too early to say one has that one team got the better end of this part of the deal, which can be sad about the next part of the deal. The Twins received the competitive balance pick for being “one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools” in baseball in 2019, which is not to be confused with a compensation pick which is given when a free-agent-to-be rejects a qualifying offer. Beeter was the 51st ranked draftee and profiled as someone who throws hard and has “stuff” that, if it can be controlled, could make for a solid prospect moving forward. That said, his track record is shaky and he’s already had two elbow surgeries so they drafted him solely based on the potential of “fixing” him. Obviously, it’s too early to tell how this pans out and who knows who the Twins would have grabbed here. I’ll take the $10MM and be happy with how the premier part of the deal has panned out so far. The headliners of this deal were clearly Maeda and Graterol in what could essentially become a one-for-one swap if none of the aforementioned pieces amount to anything more than replacement level players. Although it’s hard to predict the overall impact this trade will have in the years to come, I think we can anoint a “winner” of the trade a year later after reflecting on the years each player and team had. Maeda Makes a Case for the Cy Young Award Maeda’s career with the Dodgers was always a little on the fritz as he would bounce back and forth between a starter and reliever despite having a preference for being a part of the rotation. Although he did well in both roles, I think 2020 showed that knowing he was going to be a starter from day one allowed him to settle in and excel on the mound. He posted career best numbers across the board as a starter and was rewarded earning 2nd place in Cy Young voting behind the unanimous selection of Shane Bieber. His Savant profile, shown below, proves that 2020 was not a total surprise to those reading more than box scores and that it isn’t far fetched for him to post similar numbers moving forward. Download attachment: Maeda Savant 16 - 20.gif Maeda provided the Twins with their first true ace dating back to when Johan Santana was with the club and accrued 2.1 fWAR which would extrapolate to about 6.3 over an entire season of work. In addition, he provided the Twins with the consistency from the top spot in the rotation that hasn’t been provided by the likes of Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios over the last few years. With three years left on baseball's most team-friendly contract, it’s almost a guarantee he will exceed the value of his contract and provide the Twins with the consistent starter they’ve been missing for over a decade. Graterol Effective but Not Dominant We knew that Graterol was a fireballer as he finished in the 100th percentile for fastball (Savant actually labels it a sinker) velocity, but we weren’t sure whether he’d stick as a starter or reliever. Like the Twins with Maeda, the Dodgers gave Graterol a solid role from day one and he was able to slide into a middle inning role rather nicely. Ultimately, he ended the year accruing 0.3 fWAR in 23.1 innings of work which would extrapolate to about 1.0 if he pitched over an entire season of work. What’s odd about Graterol is, despite being a power pitcher, he doesn’t generate many whiffs and opposing hitters quality of contact against his fastball/sinker is actually fairly solid (xwOBA of .295) compared to some of the games top relievers. That said, throwing his fastball/sinker high to get ahead in the count sets up for an effective slider low to finish off the batter, where they sport an xwOBA of 0.124. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-08 at 2.53.39 PM.png At just 22-years old and able to consistently pump triple digits, it’s crazy to think that Graterol cannot improve on his whiff and quality of contact numbers and become one of the game's best relievers. Based on his Savant profile, it may just be a matter of locating that fastball over the outer third of the plate rather than the middle third. He still has four years of team control left in an organization that has a recent history of developing or reinventing players into great relievers, and has the opportunity to make a name for himself on the baseball's biggest stage as the Dodgers appear to be contenders for years to come. And the Winner Is… In the age of the dominant bullpen, a true number one still reigns supreme. There’s a reason why Gerrit Cole and Trever Bauer have an AAV of $36MM and $34MM, respectively, while Liam Hendriks is at “just” $18MM. That’s not to say that Maeda is or will ever be on the same level of Cole and Bauer, but that IS to say that even at Graterol’s best with the Dodgers he will not reach the value of Maeda with the Twins. This is a rare deal where both sides are able to immediately benefit from the trade, but I’d take the Twins side of the trade every time. We’ll revisit this deal in three years when Maeda’s tenure as a Twin may be over and we have a better picture of what Graterol will become (he’ll still only be 25!!!), but as of right now the Twins are the winners of this trade. How do you rate the trade a year later? Hypothetically, if Graterol becomes an elite reliever, who wins the trade in your eyes? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  16. After all the drama settled, and the Red Sox were left out of the equation, the Twins and Dodgers agreed to the following deal: Camargo (21-years old) was signed by the Dodgers as an international free agent in 2015. In 665 minor league at-bats he has a .671 OPS with a strikeout rate of almost 29%, and has played 90-percent of his innings at catcher between rookie ball and lo-A. Raley (26-years old), who was dealt to the Twins as part of the Dozier trade in 2018, sports a .833 OPS but is only slightly less prone to strikeouts at about 26-percent of the time in 1,347 at-bats climbing as high as AAA in 2019. Per the 2020 MLB prospect rankings, neither player is in the top 30 of their respective clubs rankings. Being that these two players are at different points in their careers it’s too early to say one has that one team got the better end of this part of the deal, which can be sad about the next part of the deal. The Twins received the competitive balance pick for being “one of the 10 smallest markets or 10 smallest revenue pools” in baseball in 2019, which is not to be confused with a compensation pick which is given when a free-agent-to-be rejects a qualifying offer. Beeter was the 51st ranked draftee and profiled as someone who throws hard and has “stuff” that, if it can be controlled, could make for a solid prospect moving forward. That said, his track record is shaky and he’s already had two elbow surgeries so they drafted him solely based on the potential of “fixing” him. Obviously, it’s too early to tell how this pans out and who knows who the Twins would have grabbed here. I’ll take the $10MM and be happy with how the premier part of the deal has panned out so far. The headliners of this deal were clearly Maeda and Graterol in what could essentially become a one-for-one swap if none of the aforementioned pieces amount to anything more than replacement level players. Although it’s hard to predict the overall impact this trade will have in the years to come, I think we can anoint a “winner” of the trade a year later after reflecting on the years each player and team had. Maeda Makes a Case for the Cy Young Award Maeda’s career with the Dodgers was always a little on the fritz as he would bounce back and forth between a starter and reliever despite having a preference for being a part of the rotation. Although he did well in both roles, I think 2020 showed that knowing he was going to be a starter from day one allowed him to settle in and excel on the mound. He posted career best numbers across the board as a starter and was rewarded earning 2nd place in Cy Young voting behind the unanimous selection of Shane Bieber. His Savant profile, shown below, proves that 2020 was not a total surprise to those reading more than box scores and that it isn’t far fetched for him to post similar numbers moving forward. Maeda provided the Twins with their first true ace dating back to when Johan Santana was with the club and accrued 2.1 fWAR which would extrapolate to about 6.3 over an entire season of work. In addition, he provided the Twins with the consistency from the top spot in the rotation that hasn’t been provided by the likes of Jake Odorizzi and Jose Berrios over the last few years. With three years left on baseball's most team-friendly contract, it’s almost a guarantee he will exceed the value of his contract and provide the Twins with the consistent starter they’ve been missing for over a decade. Graterol Effective but Not Dominant We knew that Graterol was a fireballer as he finished in the 100th percentile for fastball (Savant actually labels it a sinker) velocity, but we weren’t sure whether he’d stick as a starter or reliever. Like the Twins with Maeda, the Dodgers gave Graterol a solid role from day one and he was able to slide into a middle inning role rather nicely. Ultimately, he ended the year accruing 0.3 fWAR in 23.1 innings of work which would extrapolate to about 1.0 if he pitched over an entire season of work. What’s odd about Graterol is, despite being a power pitcher, he doesn’t generate many whiffs and opposing hitters quality of contact against his fastball/sinker is actually fairly solid (xwOBA of .295) compared to some of the games top relievers. That said, throwing his fastball/sinker high to get ahead in the count sets up for an effective slider low to finish off the batter, where they sport an xwOBA of 0.124. At just 22-years old and able to consistently pump triple digits, it’s crazy to think that Graterol cannot improve on his whiff and quality of contact numbers and become one of the game's best relievers. Based on his Savant profile, it may just be a matter of locating that fastball over the outer third of the plate rather than the middle third. He still has four years of team control left in an organization that has a recent history of developing or reinventing players into great relievers, and has the opportunity to make a name for himself on the baseball's biggest stage as the Dodgers appear to be contenders for years to come. And the Winner Is… In the age of the dominant bullpen, a true number one still reigns supreme. There’s a reason why Gerrit Cole and Trever Bauer have an AAV of $36MM and $34MM, respectively, while Liam Hendriks is at “just” $18MM. That’s not to say that Maeda is or will ever be on the same level of Cole and Bauer, but that IS to say that even at Graterol’s best with the Dodgers he will not reach the value of Maeda with the Twins. This is a rare deal where both sides are able to immediately benefit from the trade, but I’d take the Twins side of the trade every time. We’ll revisit this deal in three years when Maeda’s tenure as a Twin may be over and we have a better picture of what Graterol will become (he’ll still only be 25!!!), but as of right now the Twins are the winners of this trade. How do you rate the trade a year later? Hypothetically, if Graterol becomes an elite reliever, who wins the trade in your eyes? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  17. I just mentioned this in Cody's Lineup Projection 1.0....why Astudillo over Blankenhorn on the active roster to start the season?
  18. I wouldn't be surprised if they were done making any non-NRI moves, but I think they need a starter and 4th OF more than a reliever.
  19. Thorpe is really the only one out of options, but they would need to pass Hamilton through waivers if they don't add him to the active roster. FWIW, he has failed to make it past waivers twice since September so, unless he's awful in Spring Training, I'm guessing he's gonna get the first crack at the front end of the bullpen. For partially the same reason, I'd venture to guess Thorpe may get the first crack at the number five rotation spot over Dobnak. In general, I tend not to believe in Dobnak so I would like to see Thorpe given an opportunity.
  20. I don't see any reason to have Astudillo on the active roster over Blankenhorn unless it's also the service time game, which i personally don't agree with but understand it's part of the game.
  21. The Twins have made some moves to bolster their bullpen this offseason with the additions of Ian Gibaut, Brandon Waddell, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, Shaun Anderson, and Ian Hamilton. It remains to be seen if the Twins are done but let’s take a look at how the bullpen is shaping up and the potential roles for each player.I personally do believe the Twins are done adding to the bullpen. Although I would have loved to see Sergio Romo or Tyler Clippard re-signed, their recent moves of adding Anderson and Hamilton tell me that they are okay giving a young, unproven arm the opportunity to compete for a spot at the front end of the bullpen. Remember, this is an organization that has been relying on Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Matt Wisler and Cody Stashak over the last two seasons and, as a group, accrued the second-most fWAR in baseball over that time. In the two years that Rocco Baldell and his staff have been in control, they’ve been able to get the most out of their relievers (if only we had hung onto Ryan Pressly for one more year!!), and even though Anderson and Hamilton were not the impact arms that Twins fans were clamoring for, this regime has shown that we can trust them in their decision making and usage of relatively unknown bullpen names. So with all that said, let’s take a look at who could be in the bullpen to start the season and what their role will likely be. Remember, rosters have been expanded to 26 guys and teams can carry a max of 13 pitchers on the roster, which I imagine most will do. After ruling out the five starters, that will leave us with eight relievers to the bullpen. 8. Ian Hamilton RHP This was the hardest spot to project so I was going with upside here. This will be one of the Spring Training stories to follow as I think others who will compete for the two jobs are Gibaut, Waddell, Anderson, Edwar Colina, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, and Lewis Thorpe. Smeltzer, Dobank,and Thorpe will likely be competing for the last starting job, assuming they don’t add another starter via free agency, but one thing to note is that Thorpe is out of options which may give him a slight edge over the others. The recently-acquired Hamilton has been unable to sneak through waivers without getting claimed this offseason as both the Mariners and Phillies tried to do so after adding him themselves. Despite only 12 innings of Major League experience, he’s the Twins prototype with a fastball in the high 90’s and plus slider. Unless one of the aforementioned names really show out during Spring Training, I think Hamilton is given the initial opportunity here during low leverage situations. 7. Cody Stashak RHP 6. Jorge Alcala RHP 5. Caleb Thielbar LHP This group will be in the rotation more regularly as low or medium leverage options in the sixth and seventh innings. Through 40 big league innings, Stashak has pretty even splits against right and lefty hitters and generates a lot of whiffs and poor contact with his slider, which is important as his fastball tops out at 92 and isn’t a true power pitch. I think Alcala’s 2020 is going mostly unnoticed but he was actually really good, especially against righties (.182 wOBA), posting some elite numbers. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-06 at 10.05.44 AM.png Alcala should absolutely be trusted in middle inning, medium leverage situations and might even move up the list if he sustains his elite numbers against right handed batters. Thielbar’s inspirational five-year comeback might have overshadowed how well he pitched in 2020 although we can temper expectations a bit as we can’t expect him to never give up a home run. That said, he’s one of two lefties in the pen and provides a different look as his offspeed relies more on vertical movement than horizontal movement. He’ll probably be called upon when the opposing team has a couple lefty’s coming up in the order, but can also be trusted against righties in moderation. 4. Hansel Robles RHP 3. Tyler Duffey RHP Robles was pretty bad in 2020 but was good in 2019 and has been mostly solid otherwise while also bringing moderate success in medium and high leverage situations. The Twins obviously believe that 2020 was an outlier and with great spin and whiff rates must believe his 2019 season is repeatable. An added bonus is his reverse splits, throughout his career he’s had slightly more success against lefties with a better strikeout rate and wOBA. He’ll share the set up role with Duffey but will also get some save opportunities along the way. Duffey showed that 2019 was no fluke by having an even better 2020. He’s not an overpower pitcher but getting ahead in the count and striking batters out at an elite rate. On paper his curveball and fastball aren’t great, but he generates an elite number of whiffs by throwing his looping curveball in the bottom of the zone and pinpointing his fastball on edges. Download attachment: Screen Shot 2021-02-06 at 10.35.40 AM.png Like Robles, he’ll be trusted with bridging the gap to Colome and Rogers while also earning some save opportunities himself. 2. Alex Colomé RHP 1. Taylor Rogers LHP Colomé will be a breath of fresh air as Rogers has generally struggled against righties throughout his career. He’ll bring a different look to a slider dominant bullpen as he uses a fastball and cutter to get batters. He’s not going to overpower hitters with either pitch and relies on soft contact and ground balls to get outs, which plays right into the Twins strong infield defense. Rogers wasn’t great in 2020 but we shouldn’t completely forget about the two years prior where he accrued 3.9 fWAR, good enough for fourth best among all relievers in baseball. Some of his struggles can be attributed to luck as his oBABIP was 90 points higher than his career norm and a ERA-FIP of 1.21. I would expect numbers closer to 2018-19 than 2020 but also have comfort in knowing the Twins have Colomé, Duffey, and Robles as very good fall back options. A single bad outing from a relief pitcher or bad day from a bullpen as a whole tend to be magnified and overstated, as well as skew numbers to look worse than they actually are. Per fWAR, the Twins have had the second best bullpen in all of baseball over the last two years and improved upon it this offseason. There will assuredly be bad days throughout a 162-game stretch, but overall they will once again have one of the best bullpens in baseball. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  22. I personally do believe the Twins are done adding to the bullpen. Although I would have loved to see Sergio Romo or Tyler Clippard re-signed, their recent moves of adding Anderson and Hamilton tell me that they are okay giving a young, unproven arm the opportunity to compete for a spot at the front end of the bullpen. Remember, this is an organization that has been relying on Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Matt Wisler and Cody Stashak over the last two seasons and, as a group, accrued the second-most fWAR in baseball over that time. In the two years that Rocco Baldell and his staff have been in control, they’ve been able to get the most out of their relievers (if only we had hung onto Ryan Pressly for one more year!!), and even though Anderson and Hamilton were not the impact arms that Twins fans were clamoring for, this regime has shown that we can trust them in their decision making and usage of relatively unknown bullpen names. So with all that said, let’s take a look at who could be in the bullpen to start the season and what their role will likely be. Remember, rosters have been expanded to 26 guys and teams can carry a max of 13 pitchers on the roster, which I imagine most will do. After ruling out the five starters, that will leave us with eight relievers to the bullpen. 8. Ian Hamilton RHP This was the hardest spot to project so I was going with upside here. This will be one of the Spring Training stories to follow as I think others who will compete for the two jobs are Gibaut, Waddell, Anderson, Edwar Colina, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, and Lewis Thorpe. Smeltzer, Dobank,and Thorpe will likely be competing for the last starting job, assuming they don’t add another starter via free agency, but one thing to note is that Thorpe is out of options which may give him a slight edge over the others. The recently-acquired Hamilton has been unable to sneak through waivers without getting claimed this offseason as both the Mariners and Phillies tried to do so after adding him themselves. Despite only 12 innings of Major League experience, he’s the Twins prototype with a fastball in the high 90’s and plus slider. Unless one of the aforementioned names really show out during Spring Training, I think Hamilton is given the initial opportunity here during low leverage situations. 7. Cody Stashak RHP 6. Jorge Alcala RHP 5. Caleb Thielbar LHP This group will be in the rotation more regularly as low or medium leverage options in the sixth and seventh innings. Through 40 big league innings, Stashak has pretty even splits against right and lefty hitters and generates a lot of whiffs and poor contact with his slider, which is important as his fastball tops out at 92 and isn’t a true power pitch. I think Alcala’s 2020 is going mostly unnoticed but he was actually really good, especially against righties (.182 wOBA), posting some elite numbers. Alcala should absolutely be trusted in middle inning, medium leverage situations and might even move up the list if he sustains his elite numbers against right handed batters. Thielbar’s inspirational five-year comeback might have overshadowed how well he pitched in 2020 although we can temper expectations a bit as we can’t expect him to never give up a home run. That said, he’s one of two lefties in the pen and provides a different look as his offspeed relies more on vertical movement than horizontal movement. He’ll probably be called upon when the opposing team has a couple lefty’s coming up in the order, but can also be trusted against righties in moderation. 4. Hansel Robles RHP 3. Tyler Duffey RHP Robles was pretty bad in 2020 but was good in 2019 and has been mostly solid otherwise while also bringing moderate success in medium and high leverage situations. The Twins obviously believe that 2020 was an outlier and with great spin and whiff rates must believe his 2019 season is repeatable. An added bonus is his reverse splits, throughout his career he’s had slightly more success against lefties with a better strikeout rate and wOBA. He’ll share the set up role with Duffey but will also get some save opportunities along the way. Duffey showed that 2019 was no fluke by having an even better 2020. He’s not an overpower pitcher but getting ahead in the count and striking batters out at an elite rate. On paper his curveball and fastball aren’t great, but he generates an elite number of whiffs by throwing his looping curveball in the bottom of the zone and pinpointing his fastball on edges. Like Robles, he’ll be trusted with bridging the gap to Colome and Rogers while also earning some save opportunities himself. 2. Alex Colomé RHP 1. Taylor Rogers LHP Colomé will be a breath of fresh air as Rogers has generally struggled against righties throughout his career. He’ll bring a different look to a slider dominant bullpen as he uses a fastball and cutter to get batters. He’s not going to overpower hitters with either pitch and relies on soft contact and ground balls to get outs, which plays right into the Twins strong infield defense. Rogers wasn’t great in 2020 but we shouldn’t completely forget about the two years prior where he accrued 3.9 fWAR, good enough for fourth best among all relievers in baseball. Some of his struggles can be attributed to luck as his oBABIP was 90 points higher than his career norm and a ERA-FIP of 1.21. I would expect numbers closer to 2018-19 than 2020 but also have comfort in knowing the Twins have Colomé, Duffey, and Robles as very good fall back options. A single bad outing from a relief pitcher or bad day from a bullpen as a whole tend to be magnified and overstated, as well as skew numbers to look worse than they actually are. Per fWAR, the Twins have had the second best bullpen in all of baseball over the last two years and improved upon it this offseason. There will assuredly be bad days throughout a 162-game stretch, but overall they will once again have one of the best bullpens in baseball. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  23. The Twins made a trade, the starting pitcher rumor mill has started to heat up, 2021 AL Central odds and more. Come check out tonight's notebook.Lamonte Wade traded to Giants for RHP Shaun Anderson Anderson is the regime’s prototype slider heavy pitcher and has mostly been used as a reliever with the Giants. Nick Nelson breaks down the new Twins pitcher here. Starting Pitcher update Aside from adding Anderson tonight many Twins fans, including myself, think the Twins should be looking to add one more starter. All three of those names are of interest to me to fill-in as a number 3, 4, or 5 starter depending on how you rate Jose Berrios and J.A. Happ. Matthew Taylor broke down Odorizzi and Paxton here. I think Odorizzi and Paxton are a step above Walker but all three have good ceilings, while I think Paxton has the safest floor so he’d be my pick if I had a say. Bovada released Twins betting lines Second in the AL Central?! Wow. The oddsmakers must be drinking the same Kool-Aid as White Sox Nation! Trevor Bauer update The Twins are still out on the pitcher but there were a lot of conflicting reports today, and he’s still worth tracking to see how many times the Twins may have to face the Cy Young Award winner.. His agent, Rachel Luba, clarified tonight that he does not currently have a deal with the Mets after tweeting “Down to 2” earlier in the day. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Dodgers are the other team which would be good news for the Twins as both possibilities leave him in the NL. White Sox add Jonathan Lucroy via Minor League Deal More name value than productive value here ... don’t let White Sox Nation aka Bovada fool you, this is a speculative add that doesn’t push them ahead of the Twins on paper. Eddie in a Cleveland uniform Odd sight. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
  24. Lamonte Wade traded to Giants for RHP Shaun Anderson https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1357502339385618438 Anderson is the regime’s prototype slider heavy pitcher and has mostly been used as a reliever with the Giants. Nick Nelson breaks down the new Twins pitcher here. Starting Pitcher update Aside from adding Anderson tonight many Twins fans, including myself, think the Twins should be looking to add one more starter. https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1357328008013639685 All three of those names are of interest to me to fill-in as a number 3, 4, or 5 starter depending on how you rate Jose Berrios and J.A. Happ. Matthew Taylor broke down Odorizzi and Paxton here. I think Odorizzi and Paxton are a step above Walker but all three have good ceilings, while I think Paxton has the safest floor so he’d be my pick if I had a say. Bovada released Twins betting lines https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1357333624077615107 Second in the AL Central?! Wow. The oddsmakers must be drinking the same Kool-Aid as White Sox Nation! Trevor Bauer update The Twins are still out on the pitcher but there were a lot of conflicting reports today, and he’s still worth tracking to see how many times the Twins may have to face the Cy Young Award winner.. His agent, Rachel Luba, clarified tonight that he does not currently have a deal with the Mets after tweeting “Down to 2” earlier in the day. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Dodgers are the other team which would be good news for the Twins as both possibilities leave him in the NL. White Sox add Jonathan Lucroy via Minor League Deal More name value than productive value here ... don’t let White Sox Nation aka Bovada fool you, this is a speculative add that doesn’t push them ahead of the Twins on paper. Eddie in a Cleveland uniform https://twitter.com/Indians/status/1357437555222999040 Odd sight. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
  25. Eddie Rosario is no longer with Minnesota, but Twins fans will be seeing plenty of him this coming season. Notes on Rosario's new team and more in tonight's notebook.Former Twins LF, Eddie Rosario, lands in Cleveland Twins fans will get plenty of opportunity to watch Rosario play for the 2021 season as he remains in the AL Central. The free swinging lefty goes to a park that his pull hitting tendencies will benefit from. Baseball Savant estimates that Rosario would have hit an additional eight home runs over the last two seasons had all of his at-bats came at Progressive Field compared to if they had all come at Target Field. Check out this farewell when it became clear Eddie was no longer going to be a Twin. Griffey Jr. added as Senior Advisory to Rob Manfred “The Kid” will help with various areas but will specifically have “a special emphasis on baseball operations and youth baseball development, particularly on improving diversity at amateur levels”, according to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. Despite concerns and rule changes to help the pace of play, MLB viewership has actually been on the rise for years (sources: 2018, 2019, 2020), according to Forbes, although attendance has continued to decline. Furthermore, according to a USA Today report in 2019, youth baseball participation has been increasing in recent years although numbers don’t seem to be what they were last century. I don’t know that we will ever get back to baseball truly being “America’s Pastime”, but perhaps it’s not in as bad of a state that is portrayed in the media? The world is inarguably very different now that it was last century, as we live in a fast-paced, instant gratification culture, and admittedly baseball doesn’t always provide those things. That said, data shows that baseball’s popularity is back on the rise and Griffey will undoubtedly bring a fresh perspective to an already successful Play Ball initiative as youth participation has increased by 52.8% since its inception in 2015, according to Matt Kelly of MLB.com. Twins attend Mike Foltynewicz throwing session Foltynewicz had a very good 2018 campaign before being sidelined for part of 2019 with elbow discomfort and never returning to his 2018 form when he got healthy. At his best, he is the current regime’s prototype slider pitcher so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Twins try to add Foltynewicz on a MiLB deal. Cleveland re-sign MIF Cesar Hernandez Hernandez, who joined the Indians last offseason, has been a solid ~2.0 WAR player for the last three seasons. Last year in particular he slashed .283/.355/.408 with a WRC+ of 110 while also playing very good second base. At $5MM this makes him the third highest paid player on the roster until they inevitably deal Jose Ramirez, who still has one-year and two club options remaining on his contract at an AAV of $11.67MM. Cubs sign Joc Pederson Although never tied to the Twins, Pederson could have been a solid fit for the Twins as Twins Daily’s own, Cody Pirkl, points out St. Louis Cardinals: Wainwright re-signs, Molina expected to; adding Arenado? The two Cardinal mainstays have signed up for what will likely be one last go around while the club is also looking to add third basemen Nolan Arenado. The NL Central is wide open right as the Cubs and Pirates are selling and the Reds and Brewers have been quiet this offseason. Tigers nab another former Twins player Wilson Ramos made his Major League debut in 2010 while Gardy was managing the Twins to his last postseason with the club. Of course, then this happened. The former number two Twins prospect, per Baseball America, has gone on to have a solid, yet mostly underwhelming career as almost half of his career fWAR came from just two seasons. JT Realmuto officially back with the Phils Arguably the best backstop in the league is going back to Philly for the next three years. This comes two months after it was leaked that the Phillies lost $145MM during 2020 and that might impact their spending this offseason despite giving Bryce Harper the largest contract in baseball history just two years ago. Daniel Murphy retires The 2015 NLCS MVP is hanging up his cleats after an impressive career that included a runner-up MVP season, three all-star seasons, and two silver slugger awards. Last but assuredly not least, don’t miss out on your chance to get a Winter Meltdown pint glass while also supporting the community! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article
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