Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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If you're going to continue to be so condescending and argumentative, it's a good idea to fact-check your own assertions. I have not used the word "plummet" once in this thread. I may have overstated Salty's possible decline but that was more hyperbole than anything else. Later, this conversation turned toward home runs and yes, I very much used "facts" to assert my points... Like the fact that every Twins lefty (switch or dedicated) with a significant amount of PAs has hit more homers on the road than in Target Field in the past two seasons. Sure, some of those players struggled, were marginal talent, or part-time players... But when you add them all up, that's a hell of a lot of ABs. Several thousand, actually. On the other hand, I have no idea why you think it's important to bring up that Arcia was a rookie. Will he somehow magically change the dimensions of Target Field once he reaches age 25? And then we get on to Saltalamacchia's 2013 season, which may be an aberration. He posted an OPS .060 higher than his next-best season. His BABIP was through the roof at .372. The dude can't draw a walk to save his life. He hasn't proven any kind of ability to stay healthy. He's all slugging. He literally brings no other skill to the table offensively. But for some reason, pointing out that Target Field hasn't been homer-friendly to left-handed pull hitters not named Jim Thome and I get taken to task for it. -
Wha? Hasn't Ryan said multiple times that he'd give up a pick to sign the right guy?
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Frank Thomas compiled a WAR of 73 as a DH. Best right-handed hitter of the generation. Power, average, discipline. He should be a no-brainer first ballot pick.
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Nick wins the thread.
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I think a guy like Navarro is a good idea. Slot him in and let Pinto acclimate to the majors and then reevaluate the position in 2015.
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You need to watch the movie Office Space if you think I was serious with that statement.
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Yeah, it's not the worst idea in the world but I just don't like watching Pelfrey pitch. And for God's sake, a few strikeouts would be nice.
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You're ignoring that a large percentage of those guys are players that would not sign with the Twins or aren't good fits for the roster. There's no way the Twins were getting, say, Hudson and they weren't going five years on a catcher like McCann. When the players who ARE a good fit start going to other teams, then we have a problem.
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*blank stare* Yes. It'd be great if the Twins had signed six guys already. Except that's not how the offseason works. You can't sign Matt Garza if Matt Garza is fielding offers through the Winter Meetings. Get back to me when the Garzas, Arroyos, and Hughes go off the table. I'll be more than happy to share in your outrage.
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In a word: Ick.
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Well, their biggest need is pitching and exactly two starting pitchers have signed that the Twins had even the smallest shot of signing (I'm not including Hudson and Johnson, who appeared to know exactly where they wanted to go). Jason Vargas and Dan Haren are off the board. That's it.
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Okay, I just looked it up. According to ESPN, out of 194 free agents, 15 players have signed with a new team so far this offseason. I sure hope the Twins don't miss out on those remaining.... 170 players. Only nine of the top 50 ranked FAs have signed and that's not counting guys like Tanaka. http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents
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The vast majority of other teams haven't signed anyone significant, either. We go through this every year... Virtually nothing happens before the Winter Meetings. There's no point in getting upset over it. This is how every offseason plays out... If I was a mid-level FA, I wouldn't want to sign before the Winter Meetings unless I had a particular destination in mind. Once the Winter Meetings commence, teams start actively bidding against one another and the chances of getting a player-friendly deal goes up. It's hard to sign a player that won't agree to a deal and the players have very little incentive to agree to a deal in November.
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For my money, I don't know if it gets any better than when he sings "When a Man Loves a Woman".
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In all fairness, Salty is in the middle of his prime years while Doumit is in a decline phase. It's far from a sure thing that 2010-2012 Doumit will ever return. Then again, it's also far from a sure thing that Saltalamacchia will ever reach his 2013 numbers again. But going forward, I think it's a good bet that Salty will outhit Doumit.
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My point. While thermal dynamics and wind analysis are hardly my specialty, it's not hard to look at that long ramp heading up to right field to see how a wind tunnel effect could be created. If a ball goes high enough and escapes that (hypothetical) flow of air, it might not die on the warning track like we've seen so many times in the past four seasons.
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I don't know why it's bollocks when every single lefty (>200 PAs) on the Twins has hit more road homers in the past two years. Every. Single. One. Mauer, Morneau, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon, Parmelee...
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Did I say that he'd be a bad hitter? No, I said he'd probably see his numbers dip a bit in TF. Yes, I realize that Fenway isn't particularly kind to right field but given Target Field's layout, Salty's already meager opposite field power would basically vanish. Is Target Field crushing to lefties? Well, it seemed that way initially but it's hard to say what kind of effect it has on players at this point. It certainly doesn't help left-handed pull hitters, I think we can agree on that much. Morneau was crushed by the park. Arcia hit two more homers on the road in 70 less PAs last season. Doumit gets his power as a lefty pull hitter and has also hit a couple more road homers in marginally fewer PAs in both 2012 and 2013. Will Target Field crush Saltalamacchia? Unlikely, but it's not unreasonable to expect his overall numbers to decline, either. And let's not ignore that Salty had a career year in 2013, posting an OPS a full .060 higher than any other point in his career. In general, I hate giving guys multi-year deals at what might be the high point of their career. It's the driving reason why I'm absolutely against signing Ervin Santana as well.
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I will never understand the gnashing of teeth that occurs before the Winter Meetings even get going. If nothing happens by December 15th, then it's time to start complaining.
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Again, already did that but I have a question regarding the "true" home run landing spots... Does it attempt to compensate for wind? Because, as we all know, any ball to right in TF has to fight a 30mph wind tunnel to leave the park.
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I looked at his charts for 2012 and 2013 before posting. Yeah, he hit a few no-doubters, for sure... But there were several "Fenway homers" mixed in as well. The difference between 15 homers and 10 homers is significant, particularly because Target Field will also turn those occasional Green Monster doubles into outs almost every time. Salty is a good catcher. I'm not going to tear my hair out if the Twins sign him. He'll be a plus bat and a huge upgrade over Doumit. I simply don't believe that signing him is the best course of action in 2014. I'm wary of anybody coming out of Fenway, really. On the flip side of that coin, I'll take almost any player who isn't awful at this point. Now that I think about it, the Twins should sign him simply because his name is impossible to spell. It's been awhile since they've had one of those guys.
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There's a huge difference between guys who hit balls that would leave the grand canyon and guys who have "just cleared the fence" power. See Mauer, Joe.
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Uh, I did. 2013 LHB OPS: .873 2013 RHB OPS: .628 2013 Home OPS: .836 2013 Road OPS: .770 That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.
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Given that ~70% of all ABs end in an out, it'd have to affect way more than 8-10% of the ABs to reflect a 10% increase in runs scored.
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Teams draft a lot of catchers because so many bomb out before hitting the majors. A few make it as bench bats, some in the outfield, most fade into obscurity... It's a bit of a pipe dream to expect anything from Hermann. His absolute ceiling is Ryan Doumit.
