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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I see a startling lack of Berrios on that list. Do you not believe he'll make it as a starter? It's a legit concern, just wondering if it was intentional or not.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    He's an up the middle guy with a marginal bat outside of the 2011 season, he has marginal plate discipline, and lives and dies by his legs. In short, he's not a guy you want to give a seven year contract. Sure, he might be Rickey Henderson... But we've seen exactly one Rickey Henderson since 1920. Odds are against the guy thriving through his late 30s. It's not about seeing the future, it's playing the odds and using player models to your advantage to minimize risk. And all things point to Jacoby Ellsbury declining quite rapidly. Hell, he hasn't been a great player since 2011 (and it should also be noted that was the only season he was a great player). Ignore what appears to be a flukish 2011 and Ellsbury is basically Michael Bourn at three times the price. I'm not sure how anyone would consider that a good deal.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Past two seasons, WAR and money earned: A-Rod: 2.6 WAR, $57m (!) Teixeira: 3.7 WAR, $45m Pujols is still early in the contract but has scuffled badly by his standards, which does not bode well for the second half of the contract. No one is arguing that these players were bad signings in the first 2-3 years of their deals. What kills you is the second half of the contract, as illustrated by A-Rod and Teixeira's dollars per win value, which is atrocious. Beltre still has two years left on his deal while Wilson has three left. Hey, they may provide good value all the way through their contracts... But they probably won't. CC Sabathia is a rubber-armed freak. I wouldn't use him as a baseline for anything... I thought the chubby bastard would have broken down already but he's still chugging along, throwing solid season after solid season.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Everything I've heard about Bailey suggests that he's going to explore free agency come hell or high water, which is why I used him as an example free agent. It's possible the Twins will pocket next year's money... But it was also possible they were going to pocket this year's money and they didn't do it. I'm not going to fret over next offseason quite yet. I'd classify Garza as a solid #2 that borders on a #3 some seasons.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Homer Bailey, for one. There are always Matt Garza types in free agency. He's not an elite pitcher.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't go all-in because it's going to take five years to get Garza. If the Twins had signed Garza instead of Nolasco, that would have been fine but I don't like the idea of signing two 30 year olds to four and five year contracts in the same offseason. At that point, you're locking up $30m of salary in two guys who will probably be lock-step in the same decline phase. If the Twins need a Garza-type guy after the 2014 season, then go get that guy. Spend this offseason patching other roster holes with short-term pick-ups.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    This news might be better than the Nolasco and Hughes signings combined. Yes, I hate the Yankees that much. I love seeing them do something so monumentally stupid that no one can believe it.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I can guarantee you that in the next 2-3 seasons, the Twins are going to need to fill holes with players... And I don't know about you, but I've seen enough Mike Pelfreys, Ramon Ortizes, and Jason Marquis to fill a lifetime. When the time comes to start putting the finishing touches on the roster around Buxton and Sano, I want Ryan to have a free agency floor of Josh Willingham and a ceiling of... Well, no ceiling. It's not reasonable to expect every youngster to develop. A couple are going to fail... And you're going to want at least $6-10m at each position to fill it with a competent player. No more of this $1m "fill the hole with a player who has no business being on a MLB roster" crap. And that takes money. Again, I just don't understand the rush. The Twins are not going to be legitimate contenders without the farm and the farm ain't ready yet. That doesn't mean Ryan should have sat on his hands like he did last offseason but it also doesn't mean he should go out and spend money like Rob Ford at a Hookers & Blow convention just because he has money.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. I'm not giving Ryan a pass for last offseason. I hated it as much as anybody. So far, he's done pretty well this offseason but I hope he's not done. I'd like to see them try to move a bullpen arm or two and clear room for Diamond/Worley/Deduno/Hendriks, pick up a veteran catcher, and explore another option at third base.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Both very good points.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Hmmm. After seeing him go for only $7m per year, I'm a bit disappointed the Twins didn't pursue him more vigorously. That's only Josh Willingham money. I still don't like Saltamacchia much in Target Field but his defense alone is worth several million a year.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it doesn't... But given this team's roster, he certainly deserves one more shot at the rotation.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Not budgeting for 2017, I'm advocating giving the franchise the ability to adapt to new situations as they arise. There's a big difference in those two ways of looking at the situation. Obviously, drafting is important for every team... But that's another argument entirely and even the best scouting and analysis departments churn out clunker draft picks. I agree that every team should be open to the idea of being pleasantly surprised by performance and making a short-term run at the ring... Which is why I wanted a heck of a lot more than Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey last offseason, but not at the expense of being eternally against your budget wall. That seems like a good way to perpetuate mediocrity as you remove virtually all flexibility to adapt on the fly. It's a short-sighted outlook that damages your ability to maintain long-term, sustained success.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely, but if you play the averages and keep typical player models in mind when you acquire guys, you'll probably end up taking on fewer bad contracts and you'll almost certainly take on fewer of them at one time.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not meticulously planning every move, it's the exact opposite... Improving consistently each year and not locking yourself into a situation where you need players and don't have money to adapt to new situations. I want to see the Twins stay good for a very long time and I believe a steady, incremental approach to free agency is the way to get there.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the 90 win target is more like 2016 but that's just splitting hairs.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    From what I've seen in the past, effectively wild pitchers usually have *some* ability to control their fastball. It's their secondary pitches that cause wildness... Secondary pitches that they're often able to jettison (or, at the very least, throw less often) in the bullpen.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think the return on either would be worth noting. Given the Twins 2013 rotation, the opposing GM would be saying "Why are you getting rid of a starter? Why would I give up anything for a guy who has been pushed out of MLB's worst rotation?"
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I wasn't against signing Garza, though it may have come off that way. I'm mostly positive on the Nolasco signing as a whole. My point is that it's a mistake to sign both in the same offseason when you're coming off a 66 win season. Odds are that they're both in a decline phase at the same time while eating $30m a season. And in this situation, that's probably the same period the current Twins farm is coming into its own.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Not sure what's funny about a girl waking up naked with $200 on a nightstand.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I can pretty much guarantee that a superior pitcher to 33-34 year old Matt Garza will be available in 2016. Matt Garza is a good pitcher but he's nothing special, really. The point is that you're committing dollars to a declining player when the rest of your core is peaking. Yes, you may have funds left over to spend... But what if you don't? What if you needed to fill an unexpected hole at second base to push yourself over the top? What is the long-term benefit of locking up players who profile to be in a decline phase when the rest of your team is peaking? Again, it's all about situating players to peak at the same time. Yeah, Garza might have value as a #5 pitcher... But you're paying him like a #2 pitcher. If the Twins need another pitcher next offseason, I'm all for them going out and getting that guy. But I fail to see the benefit of stacking everything into the 2013 offseason. What's the rush?
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Every bad team could say this every year and continue to be bad in perpetuity. At some point, you have to start making the team better because it's not going to happen in one offseason. Pick up one or two pieces every offseason for 2-3 years and hopefully right around the time the youngsters are ready, you're already a mediocre team and only go up from there.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It's mostly the fifth year, not the money. And there is some hope that Nolasco has spent a good portion of his career underperforming and that he has a little more upside than he has shown in most years. It's a gamble, for sure... But I think it's a pretty decent gamble. Historically speaking, five year contracts to 30 year old pitchers have not gone well for the signing team. I have no reason to think Matt Garza is any different. I'd view this very differently if the Twins were an 85 win team right now and age 31 & 32 Matt Garza can push them over 90 wins. At that point, you have to be willing to eat that fourth and fifth year to compete right now.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    What happens if they need a 30 year old version of Garza in 2016 but have already committed $16m to a 33 year old version of that player? Good free agents are available every offseason. There's no reason to stack the deck with 30 year olds in 2013, players that will be 33-34 year olds in 2016 when the bulk of the Twins' young players should be coming into their own. I think too many fans have knee-jerk reactions to signings and don't stop to think of the repercussions of fielding an 85 win team in the here and now instead of considering the potential to have $20m on hand in 2-4 years to push the team into 100 win territory as the farm matures into a solid MLB core.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope, because this offense will still be bad and the Twins will still probably miss the playoffs. This team isn't going to be truly good until Buxton and Sano are in the lineup and performing (unless the Twins strike lightning with rebounds from Doumit, Plouffe, and Willingham, which is technically possible though unlikely). Looting the farm for guys who will be gone by the time Buxton and Sano are raking seems like shooting yourself in the foot for ineffective short-term gains.
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