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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    If they can't get him without a third year, punt. This is not going to be a playoff team in 2014 and every roster problem doesn't need to be solved before March. If no good catcher options are left, let Pinto/Doumit/retread play in 2014 and go after a better catcher next offseason if it fails spectacularly. IMO, that's a better option than committing tens of millions to a guy you don't really like, a guy due for regression, and one whose player profile doesn't align with Target Field's dimensions.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Guys like Deduno can't pitch from the pen. We need to put this idea to bed. Deduno's issue is that he has no idea where his fastball is going. It's also the reason he's somewhat unhittable at times. Which makes for an absolutely awful relief pitcher. He can't be brought into games with runners on base because there's a damned good chance he's just going to walk the first guy he faces.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think anyone is blaming that on Gardy and if they are, it's a foolish point to make. The 2013 rotation was awful and the bullpen was horribly overexposed. Correia was the one guy who pitched somewhat reliably through the entire season. If I was manager, I'd try to flog him a bit as well, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle more often than not and save the bullpen any innings I could over the course of a season. If Kevin Correia is at 6 IP, 3 ER, I'm leaving him in there because there's a good chance the guy yesterday lit himself on fire after 3 1/3 innings and the guy tomorrow might disintegrate in the second inning.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    That's my primary concern. Not all roster issues need to be taken care of in one offseason. Say the Twins sign Nolasco and Garza and Buxton, Arcia, Sano, et al don't really come into their own until 2016/2017 and at that point, both Garza and Nolasco are either declining or flat-out awful and injured. So you're looking at the core of a team who is young, cheap, and very good but you can't really make a push for a ring because you have $50m committed to three mid-30s players in Mauer, Nolasco, and Garza... Some or all of which might be bad, injured, or both in 2017. To me, that's just not smart baseball management. There are good free agents available every offseason. There's no reason to go out and commit all your long-term money when the core players aren't ready to compete. Keep some flexibility in your pocket for when you see an opening to not only get to the playoffs, but win. Sign guys like Nolasco and Hughes this offeason. Next offseason, check in again and see where the franchise stands. React accordingly. Continue to do this until you know what you really have and what you really need to win it all. I want the Twins to be good for 5+ years, not 2-3.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem isn't Pinto, it's Saltalamacchia. Sure, money isn't a problem for the Twins right now but that doesn't mean they should go out and overpay in both dollars and years for a guy who looks like a prime candidate for serious regression. Salty's inability to take a walk and his .372 BABIP in 2013 is pretty terrifying. Still, if he can be had for two years, that's not a terrible gamble. He's good defensively. But I don't think I'd go three years on him.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting deal. The A's must have soured on Weeks. I'm not sure who is the "winner" here. But it certainly puts in perspective what both Dozier and Perkins are worth right now, Dozier in particular.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I have no idea. Given that AJ looks to be an extreme pull hitter when he's hitting for power, the BoSox better hope he spends the season bouncing balls on or around Pesky Pole.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Really stellar work this offseason, Jack. It's not hard to see the statistical analysis fingerprints all over the Nolasco and Hughes signings.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Best use of that quote that I've seen in quite some time.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah. It's easier to swallow four years if the annual pay is around $12m. But when you up that annual salary to ~$16-17m and add a fifth year, it gets a lot harder to justify the contract for a pitcher of Garza's ability and age.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Thanks for the heads-up on this, Thrylos. It's not so much that we'd get in trouble, it's that we want to foster a community that encourages people to pay for content they want to read, not be a vessel for them to distribute pay content to others. As a site that earns revenue from original content, it's only fair that we respect other sites and their revenue streams, even if I personally dislike the idea of paywalls.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, he probably wouldn't be better than your average catcher in Target Field. 1. He's 37 years old and in a decline phase. 2. His OPS+ in Texas was just 94. 3. His OBP was just .297, which makes that OPS+ look even worse. 4. Target Field crushes players with his profile, especially ones on the decline. Look at this spray chart. Chances are we'd be looking at a guy who is on the decline, well past the age of efficacy for most catchers, coming off a 94 OPS+ season with an OBP under .300, and moving into a park that kills players with his profile. Oh, and he's pretty lousy defensively as well. The more I look into it, the more I'd take just about anybody over AJ Pierzysnki.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    A very valid point that isn't brought up often enough. Ballparks favor different hitters despite, on paper, looking like the Grand Canyon for other same-handed hitters. For example, Joe Mauer might OPS .950 every season in Fenway, despite the park profiing pretty similarly to TF for left-handed pull hitters. For right-handed spray or oppo-field hitters, Yankee Stadium prints money. Lefties aren't the only players who get to take advantage of that right field porch.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Bang-up post, Jim. You outlined exactly why I'm lauding the acquisitions of Hughes and Nolasco while I would have groaned had the Twins signed Santana. Garza is somewhere in the middle.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Really a well-written article, Brad. Nice work.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Ugh. I hate this analogy. Notre Dame was/is a largely Irish school. The name was created because they were, you know, the Fighting Irish. As in actually of Irish descent. And if you can't see the difference between that and the Washington Redskins, well, so be it... But it seems so painfully obvious that I don't know how anyone makes that analogy without feeling dirty afterward.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh... Scott Kazmir got that deal and he's, like, good and stuff.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Pelfrey will get around $14m for two years. He'd take a QO in a heartbeat so why offer it? You can get his services for two years at that price if you want him around that badly.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    That would be such a colossal mistake. Worley is one month older than Gibson and had success as recently as 2012.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    My guess is that it goes down something like this: No more FA pitchers are signed. One or two of Duensing, Burton, Fien, Swarzak are traded. Gibson stays in the minors to start the season. Hendriks, Deduno, Worley, Diamond, Johnson fight for two rotation spots and at least one more slides into the bullpen. That way the guys out of options get one more shot at redemption, Gibson waits to get called up when one inevitably falters, and the Twins pick up more organizational depth by dishing off a reliever or two.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I just noticed that an hour or so ago... I'll look into it later. I have no idea why that isn't updating.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but he could have Hicks out in right as soon as Opening Day 2015. The OF defense is probably going to be bad for most of 2014... But that could rapidly change in late 2014 or early 2015 as Buxton slides Hicks out of center.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    But my point still stands. If you take someone mediocre like Kevin Correia and remove his best month, he looks like a bad pitcher. If you remove his worst month, he looks like a good pitcher (his ERA would be under 4.00 at that point). That's how mediocrity works. He's going to have outstanding months and he's going to have awful months. Exclude one or the other and it looks like you're cherry-picking to get the results you want to see instead of the results that actually occurred. It's not as if Correia had an outstanding April and then scuffled for five straight months. Like I said, his second and third best months were August and September, where he was average to above average again.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I view it like this: 1. Ryan badly overestimated Worley, Diamond, et al. He thought the rotation would be an acceptable patchwork of pitchers. He was wrong. 2. He knew that minor league help was still a couple years away and while he was talking a good "we'll be competitive" game, he had absolutely no intent on signing anyone with the youngsters still so far away. 3. A combination of the two. Last year, I was quite vocal about not wanting the Twins to sign expensive pitchers who will probably be in a decline phase by the time Sano, Buxton, Arcia, etc. are good players. On the other hand, I was also against Kevin Correia being "the guy" and wanted to see the Twins roll the dice on guys like Marcum or Dempster. Turns out, I was wrong. Those guys were mostly useless in 2013. But still, I would have liked to see Ryan make an attempt to shore up the rotation with legitimate upside starters or just punt the season entirely. Either option was fine with me in the long-run but I'm not a fan of fence-sitting. The Twins didn't need to drop $100m on a starter last offeason to save face... But Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey just weren't going to cut it.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I read Keith Law's article on the move and read a few of the comments. The derp is strong with those commenters.
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