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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Eh, I don't see it. The Sox have zero depth, few breakout players on the roster, several old men, and little hope. If the Twins' rotations stays anywhere close to healthy and see some maturation from the likes of Hicks, Arcia, Plouffe, Parmelee, or almost anybody on offense, I think they're a better team. Not to mention the impact guys like Sano or Meyer might have in the second half of the season. Neither team will be very good but the Sox don't even have hope on their side.
  2. Meh. I don't see how the White Sox are going to leapfrog the Twins this season. They're a bad team that lost a few players and didn't get younger enough to make an impact. They're going to be bad for a very long time.
  3. Particularly when that lottery ticket was traded for a guy whose value was virtually non-existent on the current Twins roster. Doumit adds value to a baseball team and he added value while on the Twins... But his time had passed. With Pinto being a question mark defensively, Mauer moving to first, and the Twins having a boatload of DH/1B/OF types that don't play well in the field, something had to give.
  4. I've administrated five large forums over the years, one of them much larger than Twins Daily (something like 3m pageviews a month). Three of those forums have had different sets of rules for different forums or topics, usually found in the Off-Topic forum (one even had a NSFW forum, which obviously had different rules applied to it). Twins Daily is hardly setting a precedent in this regard, particularly because the rules are virtually the same between the forums and game threads with only a slight variation for thread-jacking and off-color humor. The other three forums had vastly different rules for the Off-Topic forum, which I never felt worked particularly well.
  5. We're really not that far apart when you get right down to it. My floor for Dozier is quite a bit higher with the caveat that if he's anywhere near your floor, he's out of baseball entirely within 24 months. I think he'll be somewhere in the .710-.770 OPS range in 2014. Again, with the caveat that he's taking walks. I think Dozier's success entirely hinges on that isolated discipline being somewhere around .070, give or take 10 points. If that isolated discipline drops to the .040-.050 range again, I think he's off the team within a year.
  6. A bit streaky for sure but if you remove what seems to be a lost 2012 for Dozier, all those OPSes are .700 or better. Basically, his floor should be a lot higher than what we saw in 2012, where he struggled at multiple levels. If you look at his OBP minus BA, every level and every year, Dozier has posted .070 to .090 isolated discipline... Except for 2012 and the beginning of 2013, where he was more around .040-.050. Now that he posted another season of .070 iso discipline in 2013, that makes 2012 look like the aberration, not the other way around. Naturally, this doesn't "prove" anything but players who take pitches and walk tend to maintain some level of success, as it shows that they are identifying pitches and laying off those they cannot hit.
  7. If Thorpe stays in Elizabethton, I suspect it would be for maturation reasons, not talent reasons. Not that the kid is immature or anything, just that I know the Twins like to keep the younger kids at the lower levels where the spotlight is dimmer and the venues smaller.
  8. Unlike Plouffe, you can draw a line in the sand the day Dozier changed his mechanics with Bruno. After that day, he was a different player for the rest of the season (and a .678 OPS over a month doesn't change that, that's still way above Dozier's 2012 and early 2013 numbers). Dozier didn't get hot for a couple of months and hit a ton of homers like Plouffe. He started taking more pitches, he started walking more, he started striking out less. Does that mean Dozier is going to remain the player he was post-May of last season? No, absolutely not. But it means he has a better chance of remaining a very good player because everything about him changed as a hitter and maybe even more importantly, he looked like the player he was in the minor leagues. That didn't happen with Plouffe... Trevor just started hitting a bunch of homers and once those homers dried up, he was back to being a marginal player. With that said, I believe Dozier's power numbers will decline this year. But given how he's walking more, taking more pitches, and putting more wood on the ball when he does swing, that's a much better indication that his change is for real and not the result of getting lucky on a handful of bad pitches over a two month stretch.
  9. As much as it seems like a double standard, we intentionally enforce different rules in game threads than we do everywhere else. We want to open up game threads to be a bit more open and fun for everyday posters... Like glunn says, "like sitting in the outfield bleachers with a bunch of season ticket holders". As for moderators being active game thread participants, that was not intentional, just how things ended up working out. To find good moderators, we needed active users who spend a lot of time on the forums. Active users tend to participate in game threads... Nothing more than a correlation between the two, certainly not any kind of cause and effect.
  10. I'm considering banning you for even asking that question.
  11. Looking at Dozier's career numbers are misleading, not to mention that RBI are completely irrelevant. Some time in May last season, Dozier worked with Bruno and changed his swing mechanics. After that point, he was an .800 OPS guy. If he comes back in 2014 anything like the hitter he was in the last four months of 2013, he's a very, very good second basemen. Or he could fall on his face. But given the consistent improvement he showed after May of 2013, I think we're looking at a different Brian Dozier, though I'm skeptical that his power numbers will remain where they were in 2013.
  12. Yep, part of the reason he went from a marginal signing to "holy crap" is that he put on 50 lbs (!) in one year, which corresponded in an uptick from a high 80s fastball to sitting at 92mph with the ability to wick it up to 95 or so.
  13. No, his height shouldn't be a problem, I was merely noting that in a perfect world, he's be more in the 6'3"-4" range. Of course, he could still get there. I'm 6'4" and didn't stop growing until I was around 20.
  14. No, it's not guaranteed at all but Thorpe wouldn't be eligible for the draft until 2014 if he was an American citizen. If he comes out in 2014 doing what he did in 2013, he's first round material. Of course, still plenty of time until June for things to go right or wrong.
  15. Left handed, touches 95mph as a 17 year old, still gets to play half a season before the draft... Sounds a lot like a first round pick to me. The only thing going against the kid is that he's only 6'1".
  16. As always, thanks for the input, Pseudo. You bring up some valid points here and I'll have to mull a few of them over for a bit. Also, TL;DR.
  17. This is the key. If he was American, he would have spent 2013 playing on a high school team somewhere. People are underrating just how young Thorpe is and how being "very good" or "dominant" in any professional league is an accomplishment at age 17. Again, he is 13 months younger than Kohl Stewart, yet nobody has any issue with Stewart being a top ten prospect. And if you look at their meager professional numbers, Thorpe outperformed Stewart in pretty much every way. And, again, 13 months younger. (don't take this as any kind of prediction that Thorpe will be better than Stewart, I'm just pointing out that arguments to keep Thorpe out of the top ten don't hold a lot of water when looked at objectively)
  18. I'll never forget Dankind.
  19. If no one else will offer Drew a third year, I don't think the Twins should be the team to go that extra mile. I'd much rather see them tack on a million or two per year than add a third year to the deal. The way the market has softened on players in recent weeks, there's no reason to buy a season of a mid-30s Stephen Drew, in my opinion.
  20. I think it's a bit unreasonable to ask a poster to use smaller words or different phrases because somebody else doesn't want to google it. Twins Daily is a forum. Forums involve word choices and some of them will be bad word choices. Yes, arguments sometimes descend into bickering over semantics as one poster misunderstands another. It's the nature of the beast. But if a user continues to hammer catchphrases over actual, substantive content, feel free to report them for it. That's against forum rules. I've personally handed out plenty of infractions to posters who take jabs at the front office or players by refusing to acknowledge them by name (BYTOers will not-so-fondly remember one poster's continued usage of "slap single" in reference to Mauer) but I hardly see how "Occam's Razor", a perfectly legitimate response to some of the complex machinations posters devise to explain something quite simple, is a good example of such an occurrence. What matters is the content, not the lowbrow or highbrow manner in which it's delivered. If a poster refuses to engage your point with actual content or a reasoned argument, then that's a problem. If you don't like the way the other poster delivers that content but they stay within the boundaries of Twins Daily policy, well... there's nothing we can really do about that because everyone's viewpoint is different. There is no "right answer".
  21. If there's managin' to be done, Gardy is ON IT.
  22. That's pretty much how I feel about it. I don't expect either player to be a competent starter in the majors but I reserve a small amount of hope that Escobar can pull it off. Florimon, not so much.
  23. We constantly strive to be better and our moderation crew is excellent. Just as we're never going to be "perfect" in everyone's eyes (because, frankly, that's completely impossible), I only want posters to realize that they don't see the entire situation... Nothing even close to the entire situation.
  24. To be up-front about this, the average poster has no idea how frequently we address posters for their behavior. If a user is banned for a week for violation of policy, the average poster won't even notice. We don't confront users publicly and we don't publicize infractions and bans. So remember that just because you got an infraction (using the general "you", not you specifically Fire Dan Gladden), don't assume that the "other guy" didn't get an infraction as well, maybe even a ban. Because honestly, how would you even know? Do you notice if I'm gone for a week? No, you don't... Because one poster, even one as prolific as myself (I'm near the top of all TD posters in frequency and count) isn't noticeable on a board that has several hundred active users at any given point. In short, we work very hard to make sure we do not play favorites and it's a little insulting to imply otherwise when you only see ~10% of what's going on in the forums.
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