No, I don't think he would. The guy just came off a 5 WAR season. Why would he be so interested in $4-5m now (that he's almost surely going to make anyway) at the expense of a possible $30-40m in free agency? If Dozier's agent has any smarts, the Kipnis contract is the baseline for negotiations. While one guaranteed year of free agency might get the job done, no guaranteed years should have Brian walking away from the table. It doesn't make sense for him to agree to those terms. Edit: after reading this again, it seems you are implying that if the Twins overpay in arb, then that might get the job done. I can see that happening but at that point, are the Twins interested? To get Dozier to agree to a dual-option contract, the Twins would probably have to give him ~$20m in his final arbitration year. That's the only way a deal of that kind makes sense for Dozier. He has to be getting a lot in arbitration to counter the tens of millions he could be leaving on the table on those option years.