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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    ERA+ is a much better stat to use if you wish to use ERA and it reinforces your point. Milone has a better career ERA+ than Gibson, Hughes, and Nolasco. Milone has an identical career ERA+ to Santana.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Trump is not a good orator. He appeals to the stupidest of us with insults and by feeding off misdirected anger from dumb, angry white people (who mostly built the bed they're currently sleeping in but it's easier to blame immigrants and other people). Donald Trump famously said "I know words, I have all the best words." last year. If that's because he goes off script, well then he should probably have someone write him a script and stick to it because that statement is ****ing hilarious. A gifted orator would never say something that absurd and just... wrong. It's a butchering of the English language and doubly so because he's speaking about his own (obviously enormous) vocabulary (words, the best ones). All one has to do is listen to the clown for a few minutes and his weird, stilted, fourth grade speech to see he isn't a good orator. He's good at riling up a small segment of incredibly stupid people but that's a long way from being a gifted orator.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, that article flatly stated why I'm wary of ABW: "High-strikeout prospects are risky. A high strikeout rate shows that a hitter is getting fooled by minor league pitching." Sano offset his K rates with elite discipline, which tells you that he's not being fooled, he simply swings really hard and isn't terribly refined with the location of said swing. ABW? Not so much. His walk rate has improved, which is great, but he has a long way to go in my eyes.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    That wouldn't be good enough for me, as OPS+ is not position adjusted. Going by that stat, I'd want to see something around 115 before calling the deal a success. Over 120 is "resounding success" territory and a great return on the investment.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. I'm just having a bit of fun.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, we'll find out more in two days. I'm not really sold on some of the projection models, as there are still too many candidates and one major event (good or bad) from any one of them could drastically shift the outcome of both Super Tuesday and March 15th (which has two winner-take-all states). If Trump wins Ohio or Florida, he almost surely gets the nomination. If those two states split (Ohio to Kasich, Florida to Rubio), then Trump probably wins. If one non-Trump candidate wins both, then it's wide open (combined, the two states are worth 165 delegates).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    And if they help the Twins contend in 2016 and 2017, that's just fine. Contending teams shouldn't think too hard about what a player might bring in trade and whether he's "devaluing" in trade value if he's actually contributing on the field. It's one of my pet peeves on sports forums. Sometimes, the smart move is to worry solely about the on-field product and not think about possible trade value. It's why I'm okay with the Twins letting Plouffe walk after the 2017 season if that's the smart play (ie. he's worth his yearly salary in production and helps the Twins win baseball games).
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    The numbers in the first sentence make the second sentence mostly irrelevant. 65 delegates is essentially one Ohio. Florida is a winner-take-all state with 99 delegates. If Rubio wins the state, there's 150% of your 65 delegate gap. There's a lot in flux and Trump can certainly win this thing but it's far from a certainty at this point.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Whoa, time to tap the brakes. Yes, some of these trends are surprising and, to an extent, troubling... But we're four states into primary season. And those four states account for less than 3.8% of the United States' population. They're also some of the looniest states in the country. Every four years, we lose our minds some time in early March because Radical & Insane Candidate X is making a surprising run at the nomination. You'd think we'd learn our lesson at some point but it never happens. Yes, Trump has a chance to win the nomination but with ~96% of the country left to weigh in, it's a bit early to draw significant conclusions from what we've seen thus far.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I think Texas could really end up helping Trump and might be the key to the primaries when all is said and done. While most of the GOP base seems to be rallying around Rubio as "their guy", Cruz is likely to walk away with Texas, seriously hampering Marco's ability to catch Trump in overall delegates. The GOP base is helping Trump win the nomination with their indecision over Rubio/Cruz. Of course, it's also important to point out that Trump has less than 7% of the delegates needed to win the nomination. California alone has over twice as many available delegates as Trump has accumulated thus far. In essence, we're in the bottom of the first inning of this thing and Trump has a 1-0 lead.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    It will be interesting to monitor the four year competition between Nolasco and Garza and their quest for the "Overpaid Waste of Space" championship. Initially, Nolasco had a big lead after Garza posted a respectable 1.4 WAR in 2014 but Matt stormed back into the discussion with a horrific -1.7 WAR last season. Current standings: Nolasco: -0.8 rWAR Garza: -0.3 rWAR I suspect this one will go down to the wire.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't necessarily disagree but I think making the decision today is a mistake. Give Polanco another year, let Dozier help the 2016 Twins win ballgames, and then reevaluate next November. There's no reason to force a decision today, as it will significantly hurt the current MLB squad and its ability to compete in 2016.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Given the abundance of (mediocre) pitchers on the roster, I think it doubly makes sense to hold Berrios back for at least a month. It should take a month or so for the depth chart to reach Berrios even if multiple guys stumble out of the gate. I'm fine with figuring out who deserves to start amongst Hughes, Gibson, Santana, Nolasco, Duffey, and Milone and then figuring out a way to get Berrios into the mix in May or maybe even June.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    As I said way back when, I have no problems with Affleck being Batman. It's everything else that suggests this movie will suck hard. Once again, it appears that Snyder is trying to make a movie with visual whizbangery but still doesn't understand what makes a movie great is its characters. Audiences don't care about Batman and Superman slugging it out, they care about the broken friendship that led to them slugging it out. That's what made The Dark Knight Returns so powerful and why it resonates with audiences to this day. You can't lead a franchise with DKR; you need to nurture that friendship so its dissolution has impact. BvS should be the tenth movie in the franchise, not the first. They're wasting one of the best stories in the history of comic books by not understanding why readers love it so much. Meanwhile, Marvel gets it. Captain America: Civil War is more Dark Knight Returns than is Batman v. Superman. Marvel spent the time and did the legwork to make audiences care about both Iron Man and Cap, which makes the coming battle mean something. In BvS, it's just two guys hitting each other a lot. Whoop dee doo. Zach Snyder shouldn't be the one heading the DC film franchise. He's not a good storyteller. Go find someone with a little patience, someone who understands the source material and what makes it great.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    No arguments from me, I also want to see them in the rotation. But if they're relegated to the bullpen, the pen could turn into a relative strength for the team. They still need a lefty, though, and I'm hoping Rogers takes that role. Rogers/Duffey/May/Jepsen/Perkins can be a decent group of arms and that's not even including the possibility of Meyer getting a shot. It's not the bullpen I want to see but it could work (at the expense of the rotation, IMO).
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Watched Winter Soldier again last night. IMO, it's still the best Marvel film because it's both a quality film and a film that sticks to the themes of its characters. GotG may be second... Hard to say. Lots of competition there. Also, Deadpool was very enjoyable. It started to wear a bit thin through the middle but finished strong. Not a great movie but definitely worth watching, if only for the opening credits and Negasonic Teenage Warhead, who I'm convinced is in the film simply for her name (and in a proper Deadpool film, that's a perfectly legitimate reason to include a character).
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Unfortunately, the two guys best suited for the bullpen - May and Duffey - are the guys I want to see in the rotation. But Duffey and May are pretty good options for the pen. Both have decent, not spectacular, control and miss a lot of bats. I think people tend to overlook Duffey's 21.9% K rate as a starter last season.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    One thing to keep in mind is that only a handful of states - none of them truly large - have weighed in thus far. The two most moderate states - NH and NV - have both been won by Trump but both had strong showings from other candidates. I think we can discard the likes of SC and IA because they don't represent what's coming down the line: moderate states having their say in the primaries. NH: Trump: 35% Kasich: 16% Cruz: 12% Bush: 11% Rubio: 11% NV: Trump: 46% Rubio: 24% Cruz: 21% There's a lot of noise in the NH primary (as there usually is with it being so early in the process). Obviously, Bush is now gone. The base has begun to rally around Rubio and, to an extent, Cruz. I suspect Kasich will be gone soon or, at the very least, Rubio will start taking his votes as the "anti-Trump" coalition strengthens, forcing Kasich to the sidelines in more moderate states. Who knows how long Carson will stick around or if they will try to force him out early for the good of the party. Romney didn't start winning primaries with >50% of the vote until Super Tuesday. And once the rest of the GOP field starts folding, I think we'll see most of those votes going to Rubio/Cruz and not Trump, given how much a large segment of the GOP base dislikes the man. I think the deciding factor is how long Cruz stays relevant in the race. If he stays in it through Super Tuesday and into mid-March, then Trump has a better chance of winning the nomination... Not necessarily through strength of support but through the GOP base's indecision.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see it. The guy has insulted pretty much everyone who isn't a white male at one point or another. That's going to play out badly for him once the field narrows and the attacks become more targeted, exposing the absolutely ludicrous things Trump has said over the past few years (the birther nonsense in itself is enough to turn away moderates, much less other stuff like the Mexican wall insanity). Right now, most Americans aren't paying attention and the field is crowded and noisy. That helps Trump in the short-term. I think it does the opposite once the spotlight shines brightly on him and him alone. Trump might be able to win the white male vote. If Clinton is opposing him, and she will, the female vote is a virtual lock for the Democrats. For obvious reasons, the Democrats are also guaranteed every significant person of color demographic in the country. It's impossible to win an election with only the white male vote in 21st century America. Trump will be destroyed in a general, which is part of the reason why the GOP is doing everything they can to avoid his nomination.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    He'll get destroyed. People put waaaaay too much stock in the primaries. The primaries are dominated by the fringes of each party. Moderates, swing voters, and non-partisans participate in low numbers and often not at all. The primary election system does not represent the people who actually choose the American president... Which is part of the problem and why we so often end up with "douche vs. turd sandwich" choices in the general election.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    GotG hadn't released when I posted that list.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe 2018-2020. Maybe. But what you're arguing right now is that a guy whose MiLB career OPS is .752 will perform better than a guy whose 2015 MLB OPS was .751. That's... Unlikely, to be generous. Outlandish, to be more realistic.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    "Sell high" shouldn't be uttered by a team that is attempting to compete for a postseason berth and has no viable replacement at the position. Sheesh, you guys. This isn't a video game. There's no way Polanco even comes close to replacing Dozier's production in 2016. Are the Twins trying to win baseball games or an award for the best farm system in baseball?
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know if it's possible for this country to move away from a two party system. When things are going well, both parties have a vested interest in maintaining the system. When things are going badly, one party has the advantage and, therefore, a vested interest in maintaining the system. Right now, that is the Democratic Party. They're profiting from the in-fighting and general asshattery coming out of the GOP. They lose ground if they break up the two party system and allow the GOP to reorganize into multiple, possibly competent, parties.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Definitely. Any team that wins over 90 games has some luck on its side but overall, many of the 2000s teams were snakebit. They managed to win 90+ games multiple times and lost an elite player in two of those seasons. In particular, the 2010 season still irks me. Man, that team could have been something else. They were stacked top to bottom in the lineup, lost their best hitter, and still won 94 games. What were they with a healthy Morneau? A 97-98 win team? It's hard to see that team get swept by the Yankees with Justin on it. Hell, the same thing goes for the 2006 squad. Is there any way the Twins fail to make it out of the ALDS with Santana and Liriano pitching twice?
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