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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It was a legitimate thread and question, one most of us are asking but can't answer. In my opinion, it's completely insane that the Twins continue to roll out Nolasco, Milone, and Duffey but can't make room for Berrios.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Win Probability Added is a counting stat. It does not indicate the frequency of performance because different players on different teams get a different number of opportunities to shine. If you're the closer for a 95 win team, your WPA *should* be a lot higher than the closer for a 70 win team. To an extent, the same applies to SD/MD. They're counting stats that largely depend on opportunity. For example, Britton has 41 appearances. Chapman has 31 appearances. Don't you think using counting stats is a bit of a problem at that point?
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Sigh. Yes. I wasn't *entirely* against the Pelfrey contract (just mostly against it) because he profiled as an interesting bullpen piece. If you drop Pelfrey's curve (and maybe his splitter or slider, whichever is less effective in relation to the fastball) and let him reel back and throw one inning at a time, I suspect he turns into a much more intimidating pitcher. But we all know how that played out.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    It was a massive haul. Aroldis Chapman is a reliever who will pitch for the Cubs 20-ish times in the regular season and the Cubs gave up a prospect rated between #28-41 by major publications. That, in itself, it quite a haul. Whether Torrres is blocked or not has absolutely nothing to do with his value as a player. No, the other players aren't great... But they're still worth something. It's a haul for the Yankees any way you look at it. I commend the Cubs for going big in this way. I also acknowledge they gave up a hell of a lot to do it.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Holy crap. I don't care how good Chapman is, that's a massive haul for two months of a reliever.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd like to see Berrios show me a little more in Rochester before he gets the call. He hasn't pitched a single no-hitter yet, much less any perfect games.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    But that's not how it works, Dave. It really seems like you're reaching. Three years ago, Kyle Gibson was a rookie and pitched 50-ish innings. Today, Miller is a veteran and is pitching poorly. Those aren't close to comparable things. Now, Miller may rebound. He might need a fresh start. There are several things to like about him. But equating a bad 2013 rookie campaign to a bad 2016 campaign... No. Just no.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not assuming he'll stay horrible. But there are legitimate concerns about a 25 year old pitcher who lost a mph from his fastball and is getting shelled in the National League. Like I said, I'd take a flyer on him but not for Gibson and likely not for any pitcher above A ball. Offer Palka back to Arizona in return. See if their bat**** crazy GM takes it.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure. You replace a mediocre pitcher with a horrible pitcher. As we've seen this season, populating either 40% or 60% of your rotation with horrible pitchers leads to a lot of losses. I have no interest in seeing what a rotation with 80% horrible pitchers looks like.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It's absolutely significant. What remains to be seen is whether it's permanent. As we saw with Hughes, even a slight dip in fastball velo can have disastrous effects on performance.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    The bolded is why I'd be interested in taking a flyer on the guy... I only want to keep Gibson. The Twins need starters. I have no faith in Duffey. May should be back in the rotation but he's far from a sure thing. Santana is a steady hand but it's possible he gets traded. If Berrios was up and dealing, May was in the rotation and thriving, and Santana was going to stick around... Sure, maybe it's easier to trade Gibson. But as it stands now, I wouldn't deal Gibson for Miller because it could turn out disastrously for the Twins. If Miller regains his form, you look like a genius. If Miller implodes and Gibson stabilizes, you deserve to be fired. And I wouldn't hinge my career on what looks to be a coin flip.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Even if Nunez is a marginal asset, he's still an asset.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Any one stuffed animal from the second shelf.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd also be reluctant to call Gibson an injury risk because he went on the 15 day DL. His velocity hasn't moved a bit this season while Miller has dipped over 1mph from previous seasons. I'm more concerned about a guy who has lost velocity at age 25 than I am a 15 day stint on the DL.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    No, no, no... It's Gibson and Nunez for Gibson.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Miller would not be a #2 in the American League. His K% has been on decline for several years (down to 15.7% this season from a peak of 23.4%). You say Miller would be "at worst a #4"... Have you looked at his stats this season? He's awful. If he was in the AL, he's Ricky Nolasco or Tommy Milone. And, sure, go ahead and use ERA over FIP. That's actually okay with me... But only if you adjust Miller's ERA to the American League, which brings it within a few points of Gibson. And we're back to square one. The only thing Miller has going for him is his age. I'd be interested in taking a flyer on the guy but not for Gibson. The Twins need pitchers and swapping Gibson for Miller is shuffling deck chairs and possibly losing in the process (as Miller has been terrible this season while Gibson appears to be turning it around after the injury).
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Shelby Miller: 644 IP, 3.64 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 3.4 BB/9, 7.4 K/9 Kyle Gibson: 496 IP, 4.46 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9 Why would I want to give up the second guy and Eduardo Nunez to get the first guy?
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, yes and no. An NL team might think it's an acceptable risk to take on Nolasco as a fifth starter if they get something in return for taking on salary.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I openly admit I strongly disliked Chris Herrmann from day one. I also admit my dislike was kinda irrational.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Huh, a funny thought just occurred to me. If a team says "We'll take Ricky Nolasco and his salary but you have to throw in ABW as well. We offer nothing in return." Do you pull the trigger? I think I would.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I wasn't arguing with you, I was putting Thrylos' comments about Herrmann's BABIP into context of other MLB hitters, specifically Miguel Cabrera. I think we can both agree that a .371 BABIP is completely out of line with what we can expect from Herrmann going forward. But that doesn't mean he can't be a useful and productive player for the Diamondbacks. And we haven't even touched on his defense, which pretty much prevents him from ever being anything more than a backup catcher with relatively unknown hitting potential. In the context of the trade, both teams should feel good about themselves as of today. How it goes tomorrow, well, dunno.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, same here. Excited is the wrong word. Well, maybe I'm a *little* excited. For example, I'm intrigued by Adam Brett Walker. I don't think he'll be a good MLB hitter but he's an interesting case to follow and see how it all plays out in time. Whereas Palka looks a bit more legit. Eh, either way, it's nothing to rave about.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Expecting a .371 BABIP from any player that isn't elite is unreasonable... Hell, it's even unreasonable to expect it from the vast majority of elite players. Miggy has something like a .350 career BABIP (don't feel like checking right now). Expecting Herrmann to top that number is crazy talk.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, Herrmann has improved in some important, and sustainable, ways. But my point was really found in the last line of the post. "Reply Hazy, Try Again". We're excited about Palka. The Diamondbacks are surely excited about Herrmann. But there's a lot of short-term fluctuation going on here and we don't know if any of it is sustainable, both from Herrmann and Palka. As with most trades involving prospects, the real winner won't be known for a few years.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    So what? Are you honestly making the argument that players are incapable of improving defensively with repetition? Look at Aaron Hicks when he came into the league versus today. Trevor Plouffe. Corey Koskie. Brian Dozier. The list goes on. Miguel Sano has started 99 games at third since the end of the 2013 (!) season. He's 23 years old. Expecting a finished product today is unreasonable. In no way am I suggesting Sano is destined to become a decent third baseman. But right now, we simply don't know his capabilities.
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