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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah. It's important to remember that just as good prospects can fail (Alex Meyer), low level prospects with talent can come out of nowhere and dominate (Brian Dozier). The Twins have a lot of interesting prospects. Many will wash out but a few could step up and emerge as top 100 guys in a hurry (Lewis Thorpe springs to mind, along with an improved Tyler Jay or a dominant season from Gordon as he puts it together).
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it was a mixture of two things: 1. Hillary Clinton was a boring, unrelatable candidate. She'd be a fine president but just that, fine. It was hard to rally around a dry, policy wonk candidate whose platform largely consisted of "let's do more of the same!" 2. Some people need to be punched in the face before they realize they should probably do something about that person who is standing in front of them, threatening to punch them in the face.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Unless the Twins repeat their terrible luck of 2016, I'd consider 72 wins a bit of a failure. With the promotions of Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios, the Twins need to beat their 2016 BaseRuns win total of 71 by at least 3-4 games. I believe 75 wins is a reasonable expectation for a team with this much under-25 talent playing their second or third seasons in MLB.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, if everything goes right with Santiago, you might be able to flip him for a C prospect. No one is going to give much for him. With that said, I didn't mind keeping Santiago. I was pretty lukewarm on the idea and didn't care much either way. But the Twins need pitchers. While we can lament the "logjam" of Hughes, Gibson, Santiago, Santana, Berrios, May, Duffey, that's not really much of a logjam. It's throwing a bunch of mediocrity at the wall and hoping five of them stick. And when you have 5-ish mediocre/rebound pitchers in the mix for rotation spots on Opening Day, there's a high likelihood at least two of them fail immediately and the "logjam" disappears by May 1st. I suspect all of this sorts itself out rather quickly. The only players I really care about on that list are Berrios and, to a lesser extent, May. As long as they're both in the rotation by May 1st (May will probably need to start there, otherwise he'll be relegated to the pen), I can't get too riled up about keeping Santiago in hopes he's not awful.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I have no problems with people saying "don't trade Dozier". I don't really agree but it's a reasonable take. The deal appears to be something along the lines of "De Leon + a decent but not top 100 prospect". That's a pretty meager return on a player of Dozier's calibre but given the circumstances, I'd probably take it because Dozier has so little value to the 2017 (and likely 2018) Twins. I'm not throwing shade on Dozier, that's just kinda the reality of the situation. Not only are the Twins expected to stink in 2017 but keeping Dozier forces the Twins to play Polanco at short, a position he has no business playing on an MLB team.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    And if three teams were champing at the bit for Dozier (or any second baseman who is good), the Twins would probably get that deal. Hell, they might get more if teams were jockeying for position. But it's obvious the market has not valued Dozier at that price, as evidenced by the rigorous bidding war between the Dodgers and Absolutely Nobody Else. So, you take what you can get (likely De Leon + Stewart/Alvarez/whatever), or you keep Dozier. And if the Dodgers are willing to offer up that deal (which isn't a given, they might be unreasonable), I'd take it. The Twins with De Leon + Other Decent Prospect are better going forward than the Twins with Dozier.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes. The only caveat is that I'm open to adding the DH to the NL and expanding rosters to 26 across baseball. With the DH and relievers, 25 men is a bit cramped. Adding one guy would make for better baseball, not worse. But 28 men? No way. I can only imagine how someone like Terry Francona would manage that roster. We'd see the first seven hour nine inning baseball game. Giving the managers a touch more flexibility is fine, letting them go hog-wild with substitutions and pitching changes is not.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    While I condemn the actions of anyone who destroys private property or harms a police officer, is there a protest movement in history that didn't become unnecessarily violent at one point or another? Get a group of angry people together and there will always be a few jackasses who go too far with it.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    But will the left side of the infield be worse than the outfield for most of 2016? I'm of the opinion the two will balance each other out. While the infield gets more opportunities, the 2016 outfield was horrific, worse than what I expect out of Polanco and Sano. And short was really bad in 2016, as well. It'll be hard to be significantly worse in 2017.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I think there may be more to sequencing than "luck" but given the wild swings year-to-year, at least part, probably most, of it is luck-based. Otherwise we'd be able to track managers and/or largely static teams from year to year and measure consistencies but from what I know, that simply isn't the case. I mean, look at the Cubs. Despite being run by two of the smartest men in baseball, they were -4 BaseRuns in 2016.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Provided there are no disaster injuries, I have a hard time believing it won't be better this season. Better is a long way from good, though. Grossman and Sano were outfield disasters. That, hopefully, will no longer be an issue. Sano is a downgrade at third, that much is certain... But short is still up in the air. If Polanco starts there all season, that's bad for the team defensively (though they were bad at the position last year as well). To me, the wildcard in all this is whether Polanco plays second and whether we see 2014-15 Escobar at short (acceptable) or 2016 Escobar at short (very, very bad). A lot hinges on Dozier and it's not only the pieces returned in trade. Trading Dozier also allows another infield signing on top of the positional adjustments that come with his departure.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    But he's a big upgrade in what I care most about, framing. Suzuki was a terrible framer and on a pitching staff this bad, that's a bigger upgrade than the occasional passed ball or stolen base.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    The only glaring issues I see are short and third. C - Castro, big upgrade. 1B - Mauer is acceptable. Will weaken with a Park/Vargas platoon. 2B - Dozier is fine, provided he's still here. 3B - Sano, yikes. SS - Polanco, yikes. Escobar, if he rebounds, could be acceptable though underwhelming. LF - Rosario, good. CF - Buxton, excellent. RF - Kepler, a bit of a question mark but I suspect he improves over time. The guy is simply too athletic not to be at least an acceptable corner outfielder. One thing the Twins lack is depth. An injury to Mauer means Vargas or Park at first (though I'm not convinced Park is a bad defender, need to see more). One injury to the outfield means the wandering albatross, Robbie Grossman, sees significant time out there.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I included position players because they need to significantly advance to make up for the pitching staff. If everything goes perfectly in the rotation, they're mediocre. That's the ceiling. The bullpen probably doesn't even have a chance to be mediocre unless potential rotation assets, such as May and Duffey, are relegated to the pen and thrive. To make up the difference, the offense needs to be pretty damned good... And I haven't even touched on defense yet. That could go either direction. The infield will likely be shaky but the outfield should be quite good if Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario stay on the field.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    They won't. I expect they'll spend the entire year under .500, occasionally flirting with it during hot streaks. Again, this is assuming they'll reach 80 wins, which I do not believe will happen. 80 wins isn't out of the question but it requires significant advancement/rebound of at least 75% of the following players: Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Berrios, Gibson, May, Polanco, Hughes. That's a mighty tall order. It's not impossible, but it is highly unlikely.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    65-97. Not as extreme a split but still significant.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much, yeah. The guy ended his career with a 141 ERA+, 25.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, .83 HR/9, and .263 BABIP. Oh, and he made 47 or more appearances 17 out of 18 years he pitched in baseball. The dude was dominant, consistent, and healthy.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It's absolute madness that Hoffman wasn't a first ballot guy. The Hall of Fame continues to make no sense.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It was Fangraphs' BaseRuns, which removes sequencing and attempts to adjust for team good/bad luck. The Twins were extremely "lucky" in 2015. They were the exact opposite in 2016.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    A bit higher than I expected but overall, pretty fair. Lots of talent in this system, very little can't-miss talent.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree the Twins should try a 1B platoon, we shouldn't expect too much from it. Vargas didn't have extreme splits in MiLB. He was slightly better against RHP most seasons, actually.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    He would, but Dozier needs to go first. Trying to squeeze Drew, Escobar, and Polanco into 1.5 positions (full-time SS, part of 3B) is a tall order. If Dozier is gone and Polanco slides to second, I'd wholly endorse that move.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    With Sano and Buxton, the upside is there where I'm willing to take a bigger risk in length and money. I'd want one, preferably two, post-arb seasons and I'd be willing to pay for them.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    As I mentioned later, I don't go overboard criticizing the move, either, I simply don't think it was necessary. But overall, I'm conservative when it comes to paying players after a big season. I didn't want to do it for Dozier, either, but was fine with buying out his arb seasons because it was such a low-risk move. Little upside, little downside. And that move turned out to be a good one, as Dozier will be paid ~$10m less than what he would have received in arbitration.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Another good quarter for Netflix, up 8% in after hours trading.
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