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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Different, but equally silly. I like it. If the Twins aren't going to be good this season, at least I can be amused by Molitor's lineups.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, because players make such solid contact on pitches in the outer lower half of the zone, especially against same-handed pitchers, which means the ball is tailing away from the hitter. You keep grasping at straws, I keep providing actual evidence contrary to your statements, yet you persist. Go find some evidence that pitches in the lower outer quarter of the plate routinely turn into productive contact and please, share it with the forum. I'd love to see those numbers.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't understand the Opening Day lineup at all but it amused the hell out of me because it was so absurd. And it ended in a lopsided win for the Twins. With a righty coming up in today's game, I'm pulling for an equally absurd but completely different lineup because confusion is sometimes delightfully fun.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I certainly agree the here and now is frustrating but I'm willing to give it more time to see how the front office reacts to in-season issues.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    You're essentially arguing Falvey might be delusional, Mike. We know it's highly unlikely he's delusional so maybe there's something we're missing. Maybe these roster changes aren't out of a misguided desire to "compete", maybe they're to supplement the players already on the roster and make the team better through some unknown analysis we're not seeing. Or maybe Falvey is just wrong. Either way, I'm curious to see how it all plays out.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Physics disagrees with this statement. How do you hammer a ball that is moving away from you, is knee high, and scraping the outside half of the zone? Easy answer: you don't. Wood made his pitch in that situation. He threw a pitch Mauer had little chance of turning into productive contact and got the called strike. He tried the same strategy on the next pitch and missed the zone, putting Mauer in a 3-1 situation. The fifth pitch was shoulder high and backed Joe away from the plate. Another unhittable pitch called for a ball, putting Joe on first base. And, again, you said that pitch was "right down the pipe". It was obviously not right down the pipe, as illustrated by an actual photo of the pitch. Here's the photo again, just to drive the point home. I just grabbed a random heatmap for Miggy off a Google search. Notice how hard he tags those lower outer half of the plate pitches. Grip and rip, amirite? http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0814/cabrera_miguel_g_mp_576.jpg
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, if you wish to continue going down this road. Pitch one. Mauer was taking all the way because the thing wasn't anywhere near the strike zone and Joe saw that immediately. Pitch two. This is not right down the pipe. This is a classic LHP vs LHB pitch. It's tailing away from the batter on the lower outside half of the plate. Do you know what happens if a LHB swings at this pitch? One of three things: 1. He misses the pitch entirely and swings right over it. 2. He drives it into the dirt, sending it into the third base dugout. 3. He drives it into the dirt and chops it to the third baseman, who steps on the bag and ends the inning. I've even highlighted the strike zone and ball to make this painfully obvious.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Same here but we're using conventional sabr thinking in that argument... I'm starting to suspect Falvey may be a step or two ahead of us in that regard. Maybe it won't work but it's going to lead to a lot of spilled ink over the coming years, that's for sure. This is the question I've been asking myself over the past few days: in our trumpeting of 2000s sabr conventional thinking, are we becoming the next generation of "rub some dirt on it and walk it off" baseball fans of the late 90s and early 2000s? What if Falvey is actually executing the next step of moneyball and we're too damned dumb to see it? The Opening Day lineup baffled me. The statements by Hunter and Hawkins added to the confusion. We all know Falvey is a smart guy so the question I keep coming back to is "What am I missing here?" Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's not. *shrugs*
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Listening to Hunter and Hawkins on opening day was interesting. Falvey had them compile a list of clubhouse guys they'd like to see on the team and then went out and pursued those players. What a peculiar way to assemble a roster. I'm intrigued because it's unlikely Falvey is doing this without data analysis involved and a sense of what he wants to accomplish.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    If Buxton has a .400 OBP this season, I'll eat my hat. There are situations where you simply want to get on base and Buxton should be able to steal second almost on command. And bunting for a hit 40% of the time is not an unreasonable number. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/12/10/3748738/best-bunter-all-time-career-bunt-hits-bases-empty-mlb Bill James agrees. If you put a bunt down the third base line, the expected batting average is over .700. http://www.billjamesonline.com/bunting_for_a_hit/
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, that's why hitters with Buxton's speed don't bunt for a hit at a 1.000 clip. But if they can do it 40% of the time, that's a good weapon to have in an arsenal.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's hard to predict the need/wants of the deadline this far in advance. Here's one scenario: The Twins are five games back. Polanco can't handle short but can hit. Dozier is sitting at 17 homers and .790 OPS. Mejia is struggling, Berrios is meh, Hughes is out for the season or in the pen, and Santana is chugging along with a 3.80 ERA. That's a pretty clear situation where you trade Dozier and strongly consider keeping Santana. And you can run a dozen different scenarios of that type and make a different decision every time.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins are five games out of the Central and three games out of the WC, I don't see them trading players. And I'm not sure how I feel about that. Lots of variables to consider at that point. I could see a scenario where it makes sense to trade one of Dozier and Santana but maybe not both. It really depends on the rest of the roster.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I just went back and looked at that seventh inning plate appearance. Mauer had one pitch he could make contact with and hit fair. One. And that pitch would have likely turned into a chopper to third base if Mauer could even keep it between the lines at all. It was knee high, outside half of the plate. Mauer would have literally needed to throw his bat to hit two of the pitches.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, it only started a few years ago. I thought the practice predated Target Field but knew it happened in the past decade.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    How is it tainted, though? The same players would play, the same ceremonies would happen, it'd just be a different crowd in the stands... And the hundreds of thousands of home viewers would have the identical experience. It seems a strange concession to an in-house crowd that is an extreme minority in the modern age of sports.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is that using a linear arc, a 75 win season means they're a fringe contender at the deadline, probably within a few games of .500. If the Twins sell in that situation, I'm okay with that... but I'm going to hope for better because it's in the best long-term interest of this team to win baseball games. It's also possible the Twins are awful in the first half and decent in the second half but I'm not going to hope for bad-then-good. That seems like a bit too much to ask.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I know but it's a small sacrifice for the betterment of the game. I let lots of crap slide... I don't care that the caps now have New Era logos on them. I don't care about lots of stuff. But this seems bad for the game. All the excitement of Opening Day, followed by nothing.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I understand the desire to protect the Opening Day series but they can play two and then take a day off. That way, at least we get two days of baseball before the letdown.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    They have the first pick in this year's draft. They can move Dozier and not be impacted at the level they'll be impacted by losing Santana. There is literally one rookie on this team. We're past the point of collecting prospects for the future and hoping for high draft picks. This team needs to start winning baseball games or it's unlikely they'll ever win baseball games with this core. If the Twins are out of it and trade Santana, that's the right move... but I refuse to hope they lose baseball games because it means their young core stalled out for the third consecutive season. If Sano and Buxton stumble again, it's unlikely they'll ever be above average players. These aren't guys with 200 MLB PAs to their name anymore. Sano has 800 MLB PAs. This is the point where they either start performing or it's unlikely they'll ever perform at the MLB level. Buxton has a bit more flexibility in both age and experience but he'll finish this season with around 1100 MLB PAs if he stays healthy.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    How terrible is it?
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Nah, I strongly hope for the former: 1. I like watching a winning team 2. If the Twins are in the race, that means they're getting solid contributions from their core of young players If the Twins get all the way to the break hovering around .500, it means a good portion of Sano, Rosario, Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, Mejia, and Berrios are having acceptable or better seasons.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I was really disappointed when Mauer didn't swing at three consecutive pitches so he could sit back down.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    If Santana is able to put together another good season, that puts the Twins in a good position going into the break. Either he helps them win ballgames and hang in the race or the Twins have a *very* nice trade piece at the deadline.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed, but he made *so many* horrible plays last season - balls hit right at him that he missed - that I struggle to understand how the metrics would have missed them in previous seasons if his glove is truly made of lead.
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