Brock Beauchamp

It's a strawman argument. Psychology is not unique to sports and the mysticism that you have to "lace 'em up" to know what pressure feels like is ridiculous. Stage performers feel pressure. Members of the military feel pressure of the worst sort. Almost everybody feels "pressure" in their day-to-day lives at some point. Pyschology and pressure and the human mind is not unique to the sports world.

The only way to overcome something with a lot of factors (such as this) is through raw data and lots of it. The thing is that baseball has that in spades. I'm not pretending that baseball players are robots. But this isn't the NBA where a pissed off Patrick Ewing can dominate a game through sheer physicality. This isn't football where Lawrence Taylor can turn into The Terminator and literally beat up the opposition. No, this is baseball. A cold, calculating game where the goal is to remove emotion from the moment, not feed on it. The more amped up a player gets, the worse they will probably perform at the plate or on the mound. Batters will grip the bat too tightly and swing at pitches they normally wouldn't swing at, pitchers will wind up and overthrow the ball. Which is why I'll buy into the "some players at better at calming themselves down" arguments. But even then, does that make a huge difference? Unlikely, because calming down simply means that they become the player they are in a random June baseball game, not some superhuman powerhouse of baseball. Baseball is a sport of failure, probably the only sport of its kind where failure plays such a prominent role in the game. And statistics don't support that some guys are better at failing less under pressure. Again, this isn't conjecture. This has been shown time and time again across the history of the sport by people who know a hell of a lot more about math than anyone on this board.

Yep. Basic Psychology 101. Which is why we have statistics and numbers to sort truth from perception. In the case of baseball, we have piles and piles of statistics...

Obviously, Billy Beane never "laced 'em up" quite like you did.

Most of BYTO was howling to put Mauer in the 2 spot back in 2006 or 2007. It just makes too much sense not to do it, especially if the Twins trade Span and lose part of the top of their lineup.

That's funny. How often do stats line up that closely?

Rather comical, isn't it?

Don't visiting teams get half the gate in road playoff games? Drawing from a very vague recollection from a long time ago with that so it could be wrong...

At this point, I question how much higher a "ceiling" Liriano has over Moonshot. He's certainly a better pitcher when he's on his game but the difference between the two players isn't enormous. On the other hand, Baker has been a much more consistent pitcher. Of course, you can throw all that out the window with TJ surgery.

There is a zero chance the Twins pick up Baker's option. On the other hand, they might sign him to a $2m + incentives type of deal. I'm down with that, actually.

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahah

Huh?

Obviously, any moves need to be focused on long-term gains over short-term success but if a deal for Span also helps the team win more this season, good for JR.

I admit that part of me wanted the Twins to tank this season going in... but right now, they're winning based on the play of guys under team control for years (Plouffe, Diamond, Willingham, Mauer, Perkins, Burton, Revere, Span). You don't cheer for a team to lose and get a good draft pick when they're winning games on the backs of their cost-controlled players. If this team was winning because of Liriano, Capps, Pavano, Doumit (before the extension), etc. I might feel differently about it (but that is good in its own way, as those players can be traded at the deadline for quality pieces if they're playing well).

They are now percentage points ahead of the Seattle Mariners. Party time! [TABLE=class: stats_table data_grid, width: 700] [TH=class: dg-team_short, align: left]East[/TH] [TH=class: dg-w, align: left]W[/TH] [TH=class: dg-l, align: left]L[/TH] [TH=class: dg-pct, align: left]PCT[/TH] [TH=class: dg-gb, align: left]GB[/TH] [TH=class: dg-last_ten, align: left]L10[/TH] [TH=class: dg-streak, align: left]STRK[/TH] [TH=class: dg-home, align: left]HOME[/TH] [TH=class: dg-away, align: left]ROAD[/TH] [TH=class: dg-last_game, align: left]LAST GAME[/TH] [TH=class: dg-next_game, align: left]NEXT GAME[/TH] [TD=class: dg-team_short]NY Yankees[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]48[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]31[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].608[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]-[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]7-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]25-16[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]23-15[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 @ TB, L 3-4[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 @ TB, 7:10 PM[/TD] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Baltimore[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]42[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]37[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].532[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]6.0[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]3-7[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]22-20[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]20-17[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 @ SEA, L 3-6[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 @ SEA, 10:10 PM[/TD] [/TR] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Boston[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]42[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]38[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].525[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]6-4[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]21-21[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]21-17[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 @ OAK, L 1-6[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 @ OAK, 10:05 PM[/TD] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Tampa Bay[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]42[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]38[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].525[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]6.5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]4-6[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]W1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]23-18[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]19-20[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 vs NYY, W 4-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 vs NYY, 7:10 PM[/TD] [/TR] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Toronto[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]40[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]40[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].500[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]8.5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]4-6[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L2[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]21-18[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]19-22[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 vs KC, L 3-11[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 vs KC, 7:07 PM[/TD] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: stats_table data_grid, width: 700] [TH=class: dg-team_short, align: left]Central[/TH] [TH=class: dg-w, align: left]W[/TH] [TH=class: dg-l, align: left]L[/TH] [TH=class: dg-pct, align: left]PCT[/TH] [TH=class: dg-gb, align: left]GB[/TH] [TH=class: dg-last_ten, align: left]L10[/TH] [TH=class: dg-streak, align: left]STRK[/TH] [TH=class: dg-home, align: left]HOME[/TH] [TH=class: dg-away, align: left]ROAD[/TH] [TH=class: dg-last_game, align: left]LAST GAME[/TH] [TH=class: dg-next_game, align: left]NEXT GAME[/TH] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Chi White Sox[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]42[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]37[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].532[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]-[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]6-4[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L2[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]19-21[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]23-16[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/1 @ NYY, L 2-4[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 vs TEX, 8:10 PM[/TD] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Cleveland[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]40[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]39[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].506[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]2.0[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]3-7[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]20-19[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]20-20[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 vs LAA, L 0-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 vs LAA, 7:05 PM[/TD] [/TR] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Detroit[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]39[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]41[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].488[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]5-5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]17-19[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]22-22[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 vs MIN, L 4-6[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 vs MIN, 7:05 PM[/TD] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Kansas City[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]36[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]42[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].462[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]5.5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]5-5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]W1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]14-23[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]22-19[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 @ TOR, W 11-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 @ TOR, 7:07 PM[/TD] [/TR] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Minnesota[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]34[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]45[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].430[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]8.0[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]6-4[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]W4[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]17-25[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]17-20[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 @ DET, W 6-4[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 @ DET, 7:05 PM[/TD] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: stats_table data_grid, width: 700] [TH=class: dg-team_short, align: left]West[/TH] [TH=class: dg-w, align: left]W[/TH] [TH=class: dg-l, align: left]L[/TH] [TH=class: dg-pct, align: left]PCT[/TH] [TH=class: dg-gb, align: left]GB[/TH] [TH=class: dg-last_ten, align: left]L10[/TH] [TH=class: dg-streak, align: left]STRK[/TH] [TH=class: dg-home, align: left]HOME[/TH] [TH=class: dg-away, align: left]ROAD[/TH] [TH=class: dg-last_game, align: left]LAST GAME[/TH] [TH=class: dg-next_game, align: left]NEXT GAME[/TH] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Texas[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]50[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]30[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].625[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]-[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]7-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]L1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]27-15[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]23-15[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/1 vs OAK, L 1-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 @ CWS, 8:10 PM[/TD] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: dg-team_short]LA Angels[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]45[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]35[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].563[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]5.0[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]7-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]W2[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]22-17[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]23-18[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 @ CLE, W 3-0[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 @ CLE, 7:05 PM[/TD] [/TR] [TD=class: dg-team_short]Oakland[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w]39[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l]42[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct].481[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb]11.5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten]5-5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak]W2[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home]20-19[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away]19-23[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game]7/2 vs BOS, W 6-1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game]7/3 vs BOS, 10:05 PM[/TD] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: dg-team_short, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]Seattle[/TD] [TD=class: dg-w, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]35[/TD] [TD=class: dg-l, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]47[/TD] [TD=class: dg-pct, bgcolor: #E1E1E1].427[/TD] [TD=class: dg-gb, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]16.0[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_ten, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]5-5[/TD] [TD=class: dg-streak, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]W1[/TD] [TD=class: dg-home, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]16-23[/TD] [TD=class: dg-away, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]19-24[/TD] [TD=class: dg-last_game, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]7/2 vs BAL, W 6-3[/TD] [TD=class: dg-next_game, bgcolor: #E1E1E1]7/3 vs BAL, 10:10 PM[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

We're talking about the top 1% of the top 1% of the top 1% here. Guys who have spent their entire lives in "pressure situations". If pressure got to them in any real way, they probably wouldn't be there in the first place. Do a few guys wilt under pressure? Sure, I'd buy into that. But it's a small portion of MLB players. Most of the delicate flowers were weeded out long before they made it to a playoff game in MLB.

Well, that was certainly an unlucky top of the inning for the Twins.

Yes, and that lesson is "WAR and UZR should not be used as predictive tools". Which is not their intended purpose. WAR and UZR are evaluative tools of past performance. Nothing more, nothing less. The same way you don't put much stock into a guy's weekly OBP, you don't put much stock into a half season of WAR or UZR. They're not accurate at that point; there simply isn't enough data from which to draw a meaningful conclusion.

Yep. Studies have been done for almost 20 years on the subject, I believe. What you said is basically my entire point.

Albert Pujols is OPSing under .800. Angels fans should lynch the bastard. PS. A ".7" OPS over league average would be pretty kick-ass and would absolutely be worth $18m.

Average AL DH OPS: .770 Joe Mauer OPS: .859 Try again.

Twins: Span CF Revere RF Mauer DH Willingham LF Morneau 1B Plouffe 3B Doumit C Dozier SS Carroll 2B (Hendriks P) Tigers: Jackson CF Berry LF Cabrera 3B Fielder 1B Young DH Raburn 2B Avila C Kelly RF Santiago SS (Fister P)

Okay, then I'll say it. Ben Revere is a weasel baby.

Okay, last response. You're missing my point. "Almost always" means that performances are skewed based on the size of the data pool. Given an infinite number of ABs or IP, the player will perform at their regular talent level in clutch situations. That isn't merely supposition or conjecture. It has been proven over and over and over again. There are outliers, yes. But those outliers almost entirely consist of players with such a small data pool as to be unreliable, the same way you don't look outside today, see a 100 degree temperature, and then declare that every day in Minnesota is 100 degrees. That doesn't mean it wasn't 100 degrees, that only means that your data pool is too small to predict or declare something as truth. As those players age and that data pool swells, their clutchiness goes away. Some players never get more opportunities and that's where this myth is born. PS. I'm not talking about other sports. I am limiting this conversation entirely to baseball. I am an avid baseball fan while only a passing fan of other sports. I don't pretend to know enough about playoff clutchiness in other sports to begin to form an opinion on it.

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