Brock Beauchamp

It's said because people have a disjointed association with reality. Perception does not equal truth. If guys could flip a switch and go into "wolfpack mode", we'd see it on a regular basis. It wouldn't be this mystical, unquantifiable object that only appears when somebody has less than 50 ABs (because when you look at players with more ABs than that, they almost always perform to their career mean) in games that register an "11" on the Really Matters Scale. We'd see it in games that register an 8 on the Really Matters Scale. We would have seen it in 92 when the Twins were destroyed by the As. We would have seen Jeter do it innumerable times as his Yankees were booted from the playoffs. We'd see it almost every day. But we don't. I've said all I can on this topic. I'm not going to keep running around in circles about this.

Let's not overlook Denard's role in this as well. By the time the opposing pitcher gets through Mauer in the first, he's generally thrown every pitch he has two or three times. Span and Mauer make pitchers work.

I bring up Jeter for a few reasons: 1. He's the posterboy for Clutchiness 2. He has a billion playoff ABs 3. He's a good player So you're telling me that professionals don't really try until the games really super-duper for-realsies matter? That Reggie Jackson didn't try as hard in a tie game in September that could decide home field advantage as he did in October? That Jack Morris didn't think a game in June against a division rival didn't really matter? That Kirby didn't really think the series against the A's in 1992 was a big deal so he didn't really try? Continue ad nauseum... I'm sorry but that doesn't make a lick of sense. None.

They wouldn't and I don't think the Twins should pursue the issue. Overpaying for one starter when the entire rotation is in shambles is not a winning philosophy. This isn't basketball.

I was editing my post while you typed this. The great thing about baseball is that we have a wealth of numbers to look at and break down the game; far more than any other sport. If Derek Jeter truly was "clutch", wouldn't he perform just as well in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth in June as he would in the playoffs? The game is on the line and if he could simply flip a switch into "clutch mode", he would do it all the time, all season long. The numbers show that this simply isn't the case and if a player can't deliver the "clutch" goods in June, what makes anyone think he'd be able to do it in October? Because the game is even more on the line? That doesn't pass any kind of critical thinking test. Derek Jeter is a very good baseball player whose "game on the line" stats are the same as his "all other times" stats. Why? Because, if given enough playoff opportunities, every player ends up that way. If there truly was a clutch hitter, we'd be able to identify them easily based on their regular season performances. We can't because they just don't exist. Again, first hand experience means nothing. The human mind plays tricks on everyone. You remember a clutch hit but you won't remember the strikeout in the sixth that could have started a rally had he hit a double. You don't remember Jeter striking out to end game six when he could have hit a single to win the game. But you do remember his game seven shot the next night. Did Jeter not want to win that game six? Do you honestly believe that to be the case? What about that all-important game in mid-September when the game was tied in the eighth and he grounded into a double play? Did he only fail because he didn't want to win badly enough? That doesn't make any sense. We have mountains of statistics to show that clutch players do not exist. These are professionals who want to win and if it was as easy as just "trying harder" or "focusing more", we'd see clutch players perform throughout the regular season. PS. Reggie Jackson's playoff performances are entirely in line with his regular season play. He played the most playoff games during his prime and in ~320 playoff ABs, OPSed at .880. His career OPS was .845. Pretty much what you'd expect considering that when he played most of his playoff games, he was routinely OPSing at .900+ during the regular season.

They'd probably be the best team in the Central with Hamels and Greinke.

Jack Morris was basically the same player in the playoffs that he was in the rest of his career. Did he have an amazing game seven in 1991? Yes, he did. But he also had his fair share of playoff clunkers. Derek Jeter is basically the same player in the playoffs that he has been in the regular season. Sandy Koufax was a monster in the playoffs but that's most due to the fact that he was a monster pitcher, period. His playoff ERA, while ridiculous, isn't that much better than his regular season ERA during his dominant seasons in the early 60s. The same applies to Bob Gibson. Lengthy studies have been done on this subject and in baseball, players have clutch moments. But there is no discernable proof that particular players are consistently clutch. As humans, we have a tendency to remember good moments and discard mediocre ones. We remember Mr. November but don't remember the two times Jeter may have weakly popped out earlier in the game. Some players, through SSS, have amazing postseason numbers. But as those players get more playoff exposure, they tend to regress to their mean or in cases like Barry Bonds, progress back up to their mean (Bonds' playoff stats are still below his career norms but after his 2002 playoff run, they climbed relatively close to his career average). The great thing about baseball is that we have a wealth of numbers to look at and break down the game; far more than any other sport. If Derek Jeter truly was "clutch", wouldn't he perform just as well in a tie game in the bottom of the ninth in June as he would in the playoffs? The game is on the line and if he could simply flip a switch into "clutch mode", he would do it all the time, all season long. The numbers show that this simply isn't the case and if a player can't deliver the "clutch" goods in June, what makes anyone think he'd be able to do it in October? Because the game is even more on the line? That doesn't pass any kind of critical thinking test. Derek Jeter is a very good baseball player whose "game on the line" stats are the same as his "all other times" stats. Why? Because, if given enough playoff opportunities, every player ends up that way. If there truly was a clutch hitter, we'd be able to identify them easily based on their regular season performances. We can't because they just don't exist. Here is a great article on the subject: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656

They need too many starters to contend. Better to try to stock up and make a run in either 2013 or 2014.

Personally, I believe that a hitter is a hitter. He shouldn't change his approach based on the plate appearance. If he's an OBP guy and runners are on, he's an OBP guy and should take the walk if given it. To top it off, he's a #3 hitter. Taking a walk just puts another guy on base for cleanup duties. Also, RISP doesn't mean only "second base". If there are guys on first and second, a walk advances the runners and adds another guy on the paths. If the bases are loaded, a walk drives in a run. While I can understand not putting as much weight in OBP as SLG with RISP, let's not pretend that it doesn't matter, either. It's still important.

Meh. I expect a three page apology on my desk by noon.

Kirby was huge in the postseason, without a doubt. He led the Twins to two championships. That doesn't negate luck. In any SSS, players can look horrible or world-beating with just a few swings of the bat. Give Joe and Kirby more playoff ABs and they both progress/regress to their personal (regular season) mean. 1987 and 1991 were great. Puckett was fantastic. That doesn't mean I'm going to bash Joe because he struggled in 40 postseason ABs when he's a better player than Kirby in the regular season.

Just a reminder that this event is still happening... It's a great opportunity to meet up with like-minded Twins fans and actually have direct contact with the front office. Now go sign up!

Except that Jason Marquis is barely younger and not any better than Pavano. When I say that I think shorter, less flashy starters are the way to go, I don't mean dishing out $6m to a borderline scrub. I'm talking about committing something like 3/$30m to an Edwin Jackson type (though not Edwin Jackson). Somebody like Scott Baker or Matt Garza. You know, someone with talent (and hopefully, upside) who won't require 5 years, 100 million dollars to sign. I think the Twins limit themselves too much by diving into the $20m starter range and committing to a half decade of one pitcher. To me, it makes more sense to sign #2/3 starters for 3 years, limit their exposure to longterm contracts, and hope that you can develop your own frontline starter from trades or drafts. And if you can't develop a frontline starter, then you put yourself in the position to win the division with a solid rotation 2-5 and then trade for a Cliff Lee or Zack Greinke to push yourself over the top at the deadline.

Snepp was being sarcastic.

I think he's saying that when referencing WAR, it's best to say things like "Player A has a WAR of 2.3 while Player B has a WAR of 2.5". That's a significant difference from "Player A has a WAR of 0.3 while Player B has a WAR of 0.5", even though the difference between the players is the same.

Oh, I'm pretty high on Gould. I was simply pointing out that he has scuffled just a bit (but, as you pointed out, his peripherals are still solid). I wouldn't be too concerned about the scuffling, just pointing it out.

Whereas AJ has a commanding lead over Mauer in the "Arm Most Resembling a 12 Year Old Girl" category.

You know what's more valuable than power? Getting on base. You know what Joe Mauer is really good at? Getting on base. PS. Joe Mauer also hits for a decent amount of power, as evidenced by his 141 OPS+, which is considerably higher than AJ's 125. But I'm sure if Joe got to play half his games in the little league park called US Cellular Field, you'd be his number one fan.

I remember there's some player from the 60s or 70s that had a ridiculous HR/RBI ratio. I seem to recall him playing for the Orioles but this is only a vague recollection.

His SLG is on par with Puckett, a bit higher IIRC without looking at the stats again. As for runs scored, people really underrate what Kent Hrbek brought with the stick behind Puckett. Kent was essentially a healthier version of Justin Morneau who hit behind Puckett for Kirby's entire career. Is Joe a little slower than Puckett and therefore doesn't go first-to-third as often, doesn't score from second as often,etc? I think that's a fair assumption. On the other hand, Joe gets on base 4% more often than Kirby. That more than offsets the speed difference between the players.

14 solo shots this season. Correction, 15 including the one he just hit.

The master of the solo home run strikes again! I can't believe what Plouffe has turned into over the past month. Amazing.

Francisco certainly looks like he's dealing again today.

Yeah, I just saw that a few minutes ago. Kinda weird that only pitchers are on the final ballot.

Ah, he's not on the final vote? Bummer. Not that I really care, I'd just like to see Josh get a little credit for his outstanding play thus far.