Brock Beauchamp

As a third or fourth option, a guy like Webb/Harden might be a good safety net for Gibson. Start them in the rotation out of Spring Training and cross your fingers. If he works out, great. If he falls on his face and/or gets injured, bring up Kyle.

If I knew Carroll would post the numbers he did and Hardy the numbers he did in 2012, there's a small chance I'd take Carroll. A 60 point OBP advantage is a lot but it still might be countered by Hardy's defense. I'd have to look into the numbers more closely. But speaking purely from an offensive perspective, Carroll had the better season by a considerable margin (as weird as that sounds to say). As for Revere vs. Upton, no way. Upton all day. Revere may have posted a .035 higher OBP but Upton slugged a full .100 higher.

Seriously. Stop being a prick. You know exactly what I meant by that statement. But yeah, there's a chance I'd take 2012 Carroll over 2012 Hardy. JJ was pretty bad this year.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys. But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out". Carroll had a higher OBP then Span last year, and significantly higher then Hardy (and Hardy as a Twin). Does that mean you prefer Carroll at SS over Hardy? Now you're being intentionally dense just to confuse the argument. I already stated how I felt OBP should be weighted compared to SLG.

Are you ****ing kidding me, Dave? I wanted Hardy around because he's not goddamned awful and he plays shortstop (very well). Given the Twins history of middle infielders, who didn't want that? Hardy's OBP is not optimal but when your other options include All-Stars like (fill in name of god-awful Twins middle infielder here), I'd take the corpse of Honus Wagner over those guys. But when given an option, I'll always take the guy who makes less outs over the guy who can't get on base. Over the course of a season, that's the best way to win baseball games. I'm also the guy that constantly repeats "the most important thing in baseball is not getting out".

I'm not going to debate your "TF is tough on lefties" because like I stated before, Span isn't your typical left handed batter. As far as you calling him a really unlucky dude in 2010 you may be only partiall correct. Couldn't it be argued that his BABIP in 2009 (.353) was in fact pretty "lucky"? Especially since he hasn't come within 35 pts of that number since then? Oh, absolutely. His 2009 BABIP was extremely lucky. Six of one, half dozen of the other, which is why I initially referenced his 2012 BABIP, which was still .020 higher than 2010. If you're allowed to use Span's 2010 against him, it's only fair to come down hard on Upton for his 2012, where he didn't even get on base 30% of the time. Unless you're knocking 40 balls out of the park, that's awful. Weighting OBP at 1.5-1.8:1 versus slugging (about where it should be weighted depending on who you talk to), Span was considerably better in 2012 than Upton. Again, I don't think one player is significantly better than the other. I only stated that if injuries were no concern, I think I'd rather have Span because he makes less outs.

You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens. With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner). Um in 2010 Span actually had an OPS 160 points HIGHER at home on the road and besides so um....what? If you are saying that Target Field rated as a pitchers park in 2010, you are correct, however Tampa Bay rated as a pitchers park as well, actually quite a bit more, and more overall in its existence. Span had a higher OPS at home but his splits were so skewed and 2010 Target Field was so brutal to lefties that the only logical conclusion is that the stadium got into his head. Unless you think Adam Dunn suddenly turned into a piece of crap with the move to the White Sox. Guys struggle in new stadiums, new teams, etc. and it impacts them negatively everywhere. Span's peripherals stayed pretty true (LD, GB, FB, BB) while his IFFB actually dropped and, not surprisingly, his HR/FB plummeted to under 3%. His BABIP was also .060 lower than 2009. If that's not a case of "this stadium is ****ing me", I don't know what is. He was one really unlucky dude in 2010. Tropicana is a pitcher's park, no doubt about it. It's also turf, which helps a speedy guy when he puts it on the ground or lines it to the outfield (which Upton doesn't do often, but he does hit it on the ground 40% of the time). But that's a side argument... I think Upton is a fine player.

Interesting. I haven't run into it at all and I browse the site quite a bit on both PC and Mac using a wide variety of browsers.

You're being intentionally obtuse. 2010 Target Field was merciless to Denard, just like it was every lefty on the Twins. Morneau OPSed a whopping .300 points lower at home in 2010 while Mauer OPSed .120 points lower. Denard just had a bad year across the board. His BABIP was .020 lower than 2012 (and WAY lower than 2009) and nothing was going right for the guy. It happens. With the move to the NL and Washington, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Span breakout in 2013 (and I hope he does, he deserves to be on a winner).

The fact is Upton has outperformed him significantly over the last 3 years. Poll 30 GMs in the league and ask them who a btter player is and you will get 30 Upton answers. If Span was considered the better player you would have seen a lot more rumors in regards to the trade and a lot larger names being thrown around. Jesus Christ, Dave. I said that if you factor in injuries, the pendulum swings heavily into Upton's favor. Or did you also miss the sentence that read " It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case." We were talking hypotheticals, not actual reality. In reality, Span's injury history is a massive drag on his value. *headdesk*

That doesn't make any sense, really. 1. The Braves and Nationals were not the only potential trade partners for Span while Denard was the best centerfielder still on the market. 2. Ryan didn't have to trade Span. He also has Revere and Willingham on the roster, who could easily be dished to several other teams if the market for Span was shallow. 3. The Twins are not under pressure to win while the Nationals just saw their biggest rival pick up the best outfielder on the market. With Denard under contract for three more years, who do you think was pressured into making a move? It wasn't Ryan.

Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP. Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit. First off, that's not really accurate: Spans last three years: .679 .678 .738 OBP= .331 .328 .342 Uptons last three years: .745 .759 .752 BP=.322 .331 .298 Keep in mind that also Upton was playing in Tampa Bay which was quite a large pitchers park in 2012 as well as the rest of its history vs Target field that was neutral in 2012 and close to neutral overall. Upton also will give you 30-40 SB a year vs Span who will give you 20-25 at most along with a ton of pick offs. Lastly, give me the guy that has 25+ HR power (will hit for 30+ next year if healthy) over the guy who has 5 HR power. Defensively all things considered (Park, other guys sharing the OF) they are basically a wash, maybe a slight advantage to Span. IMO its not really close if you take money out of the equation, with or without injuries. Except that Span's line was crushed in 2011 by injuries and his 2010 was just pretty miserable overall. 2012 is the first season since the Metrodome where he looked like the Span of old. It's hard to separate the player from the injuries in this case.

Minus the injuries, I'd rather have Span, honestly. They both OPS around the same but Span gets more of that OPS from OBP. Of course, injury concerns slant that back into Upton's favor quite a bit.

I think there's a chance he'll get six years. It seems that every year, there's a team willing to overpay a guy based on his previous postseason. Sanchez pitched really well for the Tigers and some GM will put too much stock in that performance. 3.75 ERA as a Tiger, also a sub 7 k/9 rate. He wasn't exactly Cy Young out there. Oh, I'm well aware of that. I wouldn't give him six years, only saying that there's a chance some GM out there will do it.

I think there's a chance he'll get six years. It seems that every year, there's a team willing to overpay a guy based on his previous postseason. Sanchez pitched really well for the Tigers and some GM will put too much stock in that performance.

I guess we'll never know. If you can't rip TR for something that you have no intimate knowledge of, then you probably can't praise him for that kind of thing either. Or you can do both. The obvious difference being that Ryan was in the bosses' chair for one of those moves and not the others.

Happens to me all the time, I'm using Windows 7 Premium and it happens with both Firefox and Chrome. What happens? does it load the header and then stop there? Does it happen more often during certain times of day?

It's more than a guess, it's common sense. There is no way that a full season of Jose Molina is worth 25% of Tampa Bay's total runs allowed. If he was, we'd see teams clamoring for the Jose Molinas of the world, not signing them as backup catchers for $1.5m. I don't even know if a 2004 Barry Bonds was worth 25% of his team's runs and that was the best single-season performance in baseball history.

It would require years of data to work. Like UZR (which I have defended to an extent in other threads), this "framing" stat deals with far too many variables to be used on even a single season's worth of data, I suspect. As Jim mentioned, we're talking about four different inputs into each call (batter, catcher, pitcher, ump). Multiply those four variables by, say, 400 pitchers, 80 catchers, several thousand batters, and ~150 umpires and you're looking at a massive amount of variables on each pitch. On top of that, the fact that framing is assumed to be worth roughly 1/10th of a run is very much up for debate and the statistical influence on that is nebulous at best. To get enough information to reach a qualified conclusion, we'll need millions of data points on those four inputs to make something like this work (assuming the other variables are correct, which we cannot at this point). While it's *technically* science, at this point it's pretty bad science. Far too incomplete to be used to quantify anything at this point. In five years, we might have enough data to start really breaking down catcher framing. And if we do, I have the feeling that the numbers we'll see will be much different and much smaller.

I disagree. The Reds may have still been in the mix along with other teams that need OF help. I think it's a little too convenient that Upton goes to the Braves (the Nats biggest rival) and then Rizzo suddenly pulls the trigger on Span. Ryan had no reason to feel the same pressure that Rizzo was undoubtedly feeling. Either way, the trade was not a steal for either side. It was fair value for both teams, IMO. This isn't a Pierzynski Redux.

Brock, it sounds like you're praising TR because of the speculation that he waited out the Nationals in order to get Meyer. We don't know what was on the table, if anything, in July. As Nick mentioned, technically Meyer couldn't be traded back then, except as a PTBNL, and I don't think TR would have traded Span for a PTBNL. It's speculation but the timing is hard to deny. The Braves get better by signing the best FA center fielder and two days later, the Nats and Twins finally come to an agreement. The Twins weren't pressured to make the deal; they still had other options to deal Span. It was Rizzo feeling the heat and he's probably the one who caved.

I haven't seen it yet. Browser/OS?

Nick, you touched on a point that I mentioned a few days ago but seems to have fallen by the wayside: I think Meyer was Ryan's target all along, dating back to last July. I think it was only after the Upton signing that Rizzo buckled to the pressure and gave up what Terry wanted for Span. Patience is a virtue. From an outside observer, this looks to be a classic example of letting the market come to you instead of forcing the issue. And I don't think Ryan could have done much better with this move. Meyer is exactly what Twins fans have been clamoring for since Santana left.

Ahahahahahahah, you ass. Well played.

Evolution, like Darwinism, does not attempt to explain how life arises from non-life. That's like blaming tectonic geology for not properly explaining the red shift of the universe. It's illogical.