Why Emilio Pagan Remains a Crucial Asset in the Minnesota Twins Bullpen

When Emilio Pagan came to the Twins along with Chris Paddack before the 2022 season, he was immediately thrust into the team's closer spot to replace Taylor Rogers, who was sent to San Diego in the same trade. Replacing the beloved Rogers was a tall task that proved too big for Pagan almost immediately.

Implosion after implosion led to his eventual removal from the closer role, and Pagan ended up in a lower-leverage bullpen role. He put together a solid second half of the 2022 season. However, the damage to his reputation in the minds of Twins fans had been done, and the damage still echoes today any time Rocco Baldelli signals for the righty to enter out of the bullpen.

Calls to designated Pagan for assignment fill the Twitter feed every time he gives up a run, and it's almost guaranteed the grumpy old guy sitting next to you watching the game will holler, "OH GREAT, THIS ONE'S OVER!" every time Pagan gets the call. But is the criticism warranted, or is it residue from the disastrous first few months with the team?

One could describe Pagan's 2023 season as Boom or Bust. However, the boom has appeared far more often than the bust. When the bust comes, it's brutal, but he has been a very good reliever for (almost) the whole year. Currently, Pagan's ERA sits at 3.82, and his FIP is at a very good 3.39. For reference, Jhoan Duran's FIP sits at 3.27.

So, with Pagan's numbers being so good, why is the criticism still so high? Well, that's where the bust comes into play. There have been 3 (out of 28) awful appearances that have stuck in the craw of Twins fans. Against Boston in April, he gave up six runs after Kenta Maeda was hit in the shin by a line drive and forced to leave early. In May, he fell apart against the Dodgers, earning a blown save by giving up three runs while only getting one out. And most recently, in June against the Blue Jays, Pagan blew another save en route to giving up three runs on a Cavan Biggio home run that capped off a five-run Blue Jay comeback resulting in a loss for the Twins.

If you add those numbers up, that's 12 runs in 3 appearances. Pagan has only given up 14 runs on the season. That means he has given up two earned runs in his other 25 appearances. As I said, when he is off, he's as bad as anyone, but when on, he's been one of the better mid-relievers in baseball.

Emilio Pagan has been so important for the Twins this year as he's shown an ability to come into low-leverage situations or games in which guys like Duran, Brock Stewert, and Griffin Jax are unavailable and, more often than not, get the job done. Yes, he can be a nightmare occasionally, but he has done an overall good job in his role and is worth keeping around.