What Can the Minnesota Twins Expect From Harrison Bader?

Since waiving Jake Cave following the 2022 season, the Twins have rotated their fourth outfield role, trading for Michael A. Taylor to be that guy in 2023 and Manuel Margot to do the same in 2024. Now, they're signing Harrison Bader ahead of the 2025 season. Like each of those moves, prioritizing defense over offense, Bader represents another glove-first outfielder off the bench. 

Taylor and Margot entered each of their respective seasons with the club with similar expectations—namely, that they would provide above-average defense and a passable bat. Despite that, their contributions to those seasons couldn’t have been more different.

Taylor more than held up his side of the deal, having one of the best seasons of his career at the plate and providing solid defense across 129 games. In fact, he exceeded fans' expectations—so much so that many wanted him back in a Twins uniform (which was quickly poo-poo'ed when the Twins announced payroll cuts). For what it’s worth, the Twins made the right call in moving on, as he produced a 50 wRC+ in 2024 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unfortunately, their Taylor replacement didn’t perform much better. For the first time in his career, Margot wasn’t even replacement level, being a black hole at the plate while providing below-average defense. Now, the Twins take another shot at recreating Taylor by adding Bader. Should we have similar expectations for him as we did with Taylor and Margot?

In short, yes. He profiles similarly, as a strong defender with a passable (albeit below-average) bat but a long history of injuries. Fortunately, Bader had the healthiest year of his career in 2024, playing in 143 games. Prior to 2024, Bader averaged 91 games a season dealing with various injuries, but most concerning are the multiple injuries to the lower half of his body (two hamstring strains, plantar fasciitis, and a groin strain). In 2023 alone, three separate strains put him on the injured list and out of the Yankees' reach when they needed him.

On the positive side of things, he differs from Taylor and Margot by having produced multiple seasons as an above-average contributor at the plate. Unfortunately, it’s been three years since he’s had such a season, but his career 90 wRC+ is the highest of the three being compared. That said, he should be in a role that allows him to perform well at the plate. I would expect Bader to draw most of the at-bats against left-handed pitching at one of the corner outfield positions. Both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching early on in their careers and, while they deserve a chance to prove otherwise, one of the two will likely give way to Bader when a southpaw starts or is brought in as a reliever. Of course, he will also relieve Byron Buxton in center field on occasion, regardless of who is on the mound. 

PECOTA projects Bader for 406 plate appearances and a .234/.283/.357 line, with 9 homers and 19 steals. His ZiPS-projected line is similar. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, he’s carried a .775 OPS and a 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over his entire career (although he struggled against lefties in 2024). He experienced better success against righties last season, but has generally been a below-average producer at the plate. More importantly, because both systems forecast Bader to be an above-average defender and runner, they still peg him for around 1.5 wins above replacement in less than a full-time role.

Although their offensive production projects similarly, this signing probably points towards a reduction in at-bats (and maybe even the loss of a roster spot) for super-utility Michael Helman. Where he falls short compared to Bader is that he’s not a particularly strong defender, despite his ostensible versatility. If Helman finds a role on this team, it’s likely as the last man on the bench, left for pinch-running duties.

Of the four most recent fourth outfielders (including Cave), I have to say I’m the most excited about Bader. I’m tempering expectations given his injury history and how he struggled against lefties in 2024. I think his floor is assuredly higher than what the team got from Margot, and his ceiling can be higher than they got out of Taylor. I think the biggest concern is whether he can have back-to-back healthy campaigns.

What are your thoughts on this addition by the Twins? Join the conversation in the comments!