Twins Trade Candidate: Emilio Pagan

Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. 

What Did He Do in 2022? 
Minnesota acquired Emilio Pagan shortly before last year's Opening Day. Minnesota's bullpen was shaping up to have Taylor Rogers as the anchor, but that plan shifted when the Twins sent Rogers to San Diego for Pagan and Chris Paddack. On the surface, it was easy to see the long-term value in the deal because Pagan and Paddack were both under contract for multiple seasons. However, the trade timing was tough to understand, and things couldn't have gone much worse from the Twins' point of view. 

Paddack looked great to start the year but quickly suffered an arm injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery. The Twins put Pagan into a prominent late-inning role, and he struggled for most of the season. He posted a 5.23 ERA in the first half with a 1.38 WHIP while allowing eight home runs in 32 2/3 innings. His ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.35) dropped in the second half, but the Twins moved him to a lower-leverage role. Since leaving Tampa Bay in 2019, Pagan has yet to post an above-average OPS+, and he has struggled to keep the ball in the park (1.9 HR/9). There is a reason San Diego looked for a new closer, and now the Twins may be trying to pass on Pagan. 

Why is He a Trade Candidate?
Bullpen depth can be tough to evaluate because of how volatile performances can be on a year-to-year basis. Tyler Duffey was arguably one of baseball's best relievers for multiple seasons before his performance declined significantly. That being said, the Twins have many options to consider for the 2023 bullpen. Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar will continue to serve in late-inning roles. Younger arms like Cole Sands and Jovani Moran may move into more prominent roles. Multiple players are also returning from injury, including Jorge Alcala and Cody Stashak. Minnesota's front office might decide Pagan isn't needed compared to the other bullpen options. 

What is His Trade Value?
Pagan is heading into his final arbitration season and is projected to make roughly $3.7 million. That is a reasonable contract for a pitcher with late-inning experience, but there are no guarantees with Pagan's performance. His stuff and strikeout numbers make it easy to see why teams viewed him as a viable late-inning relief option. If the Twins decide to trade him, they may need to send some money to pay down his 2023 contract, and this can allow the team to get a low-level prospect in return. Pagan hurt the Twins in 2022, and moving to a new team may help him to get his career back on track. 

Last winter, the Twins had an option on Alex Colome, whose Twins tenure resembled Pagan's. He pitched poorly in the first half before turning it around in the second half. Minnesota decided it was better to cut their losses and move on from Colome. This situation seems similar in that the team and player might be better served if Pagan is no longer on the Twins. 

Do you think the Twins can get anything back for Pagan? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
Gio Urshela