Twins to Sign Veteran Free Agent First Baseman Carlos Santana

Per Doogie Wolfson on Twitter, the Twins have agreed to a one-year contract with 37-year-old free agent Carlos Santana, who spent last season playing with the Pirates and Brewers. He's a first baseman who can plug in at that position and designated hitter, bringing impact depth and a respected veteran bat to Minnesota's explosive yet relatively inexperienced lineup.

In a couple of key ways, Santana replaces what the Twins lost in Jorge Polanco. He's a switch-hitter who can factor into the middle of the lineup. Santana consistently gives tough at-bats and has been an amazingly consistent producer when on the field. In 14 seasons, he has posted an above-average OPS in 12, including 2023 (103 OPS+). He spent 10 of those seasons with Cleveland, who acquired him back in 2008 as a minor-leaguer from the Dodgers in a deal that included former Twin Casey Blake.

Our Lou Hennessy wrote recently about what a smooth fit Santana is for the Twins, noting his strong production against southpaws, which makes him a nice platoon fit for Alex Kirilloff and the team's various DH options. Santana slashed .266/.354/.453 against LHP last year, and .276/.375/.443 in his lengthy career.

Functionally, the Santana addition is not unlike the Donovan Solano signing from a year ago. Then, the Twins were seeking a low-cost but legit veteran bat capable of adding clubhouse leadership and providing depth at first base alongside a recovering Kirilloff. Solano ended up making 64 starts at first, and it the plan is probably to allocate a similar share there for Santana, alongside a rotational role at DH. 

The ultra-durable Santana made 603 plate appearances last year, and has eclipsed 600 in 11 of the last 12 one (non-COVID) seasons. But if he approaches that number this year, it would likely mean something went wrong elsewhere or Santana really surpassed expectations.

Early in the offseason, I wrote about how Santana exemplified a player who could help change the Twins' offensive identity as an end-to-end strikeout factory. 

"Santana is a guy who can hit for power without striking out a ton, which is a combination the Twins would welcome," I suggested. "The veteran switch hitter has long been renowned for his discipline, with a 14.8% career walk rate alongside a 16.8% K-rate. His age (38 next April) means he'll likely be available on a one-year deal, but also increases the concern of steepening decline."

Indeed, Santana has long been renowned for his patience. He posted a career-low 10.5% BB rate last year, but that still would've tied Polanco for fifth on the Twins. Santana's career 14.8% BB rate would've ranked second behind Edouard Julien (15.7%) and ahead of Joey Gallo (14.5%), who was also lost this offseason.

The plate approach is not in doubt. The big question is if "Slamtana" can still hit. The Twins have struck gold with this type of late-career signing in the past (see: Nelson Cruz), but that's certainly not the norm. Santana, who turns 38 in April, showed serious decline in some key hitting metrics last year, going from a .372 xwOBA in 2022 (88th percentile) to .305 in 2023 (23rd percentile). His exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all fell off the table. 

Thus he was available at this price, at this stage of the offseason. Santana has question marks but he's an extremely accomplished hitter who brings some much-needed attributes to the table for the Twins. They're taking a gamble that he's got more in the tank, but it's not a terribly high-stakes gamble.

Stay tuned to Twins Daily for more details and analysis of their first significant free agent signings of the offseason. For now, let's hear your thoughts on the move!