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    To Tender Or Not To Tender

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    By Wednesday night at 11:00 p.m., the Twins – and every other MLB organization – will need to decide whether or not to offer arbitration to their eligible players. The Twins have six players who are eligible for arbitration. Some of the decisions are easy. Some may not be quite so straightforward.

    Players with three years of MLB service time, but less than six years of MLB service time, are eligible for arbitration. There are also Super-2 arbitration players with nearly three years of service time. Teams can either tender them a contract for 2016, or decline to offer them arbitration, making them a free agent before next week’s Winter Meetings.

    Image courtesy of Marilyn Indahl, USA Today

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    Below, we’ll take a look at the six arbitration-eligible Twins players and discuss the options. In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, we went more in-depth on these players, so pick up a copy for yourelf today.

    TREVOR PLOUFFE

    The Twins third baseman had the best season of his career in 2015 when he hit .244/.307/.435 with 22 homers and 86 RBI. It was his best, most consistent season of his career. He also was healthy for the first time throughout the season. And, his defense continues to get stronger. The 29-year-old made $4.8 million in 2015 and is in line for a big raise in 2016. Will he remain with the Twins? We shall see. But he has earned the contract and tendering him a contract won't affect his trade value at all.

    Arbitration Projections:

    Twins Daily: $8.0M

    MLB Trade Rumors: $7.7M

    Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 100%

    KEVIN JEPSEN

    Kevin Jepsen has been a solid, unspectacular, middle reliever since debuting in the big leagues in September of 2008. In 2014 for the Angels, he posted a 2.63 ERA in 74 games (65 innings). He pitched in 46 game for the Rays to start the 2015 season, posting a 2.81 ERA, before being traded to the Twins at the July trade deadline. In 29 games for the Twins, he posted a 1.61 ERA. In 28 innings, he gave up 18 hits, walked seven and struck out 25. He stepped up when Glen Perkins was hurt and recorded 10 saves. After making $3.0 million in 2015, he will get a significant raise for 2016, even more thanks to the saves. He is also a possible candidate for a multi-year contract.

    Arbitration Projections:

    Twins Daily: $6.0M

    MLB Trade Rumors: $6.0M

    Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 100%

    TOMMY MILONE

    Milone came to the Twins late in the 2014 season and was hurt. In the offseason, he had a benign tumor removed from his neck. Fully healthy in 2015, he pitched pretty well, posting a 3.92 ERA over 128.2 innings in the big leagues. That said, he also spent a month in Rochester where he was unhittable. The 28-year-old made about $2.8 million in 2014 and will be in line for a raise. Like Plouffe, Milone is a guy who could be traded this offseason.

    Arbitration Projections:

    Twins Daily: $5.5M

    MLB Trade Rumors: $4.5M

    Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 90%

    CASEY FIEN

    To look at Fien’s 2015 numbers, you could say that it was pretty well in line with his 2013 and 2014 seasons when he was a solid seventh and eighth inning guy for the Twins. However, in 2015, he fought shoulder injuries throughout the season and his performance was quite inconsistent. The 32-year-old came to the Twins on a minor league deal before the 2012 season. His walk rate has decreased each year, but his strikeout rate has dropped from 10.6 to 7.2 to 5.8 over the last three seasons. Some of that can be attributed to the injuries. If healthy, Fien is a solid seventh inning guy.

    Arbitration Projections:

    Twins Daily: $2.5M

    MLB Trade Rumors: $2.2M

    Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 51%

    EDUARDO ESCOBAR

    Escobar came to the Twins in a July 2012 trade from the White Sox (for Francisco Liriano). He was already with the White Sox as a utility man at age 23. That is something he has since had to overcome. In 2014, he became the starter after Pedro Florimon struggled for six weeks. He responded to playing every day by hitting .275/.315/.406 (.721). Last year, the Twins chose to give the shortstop job to Danny Santana and stick with him. Escobar played all around the diamond, as a utility man, until around the All-Star game. One he took over the job, he was one of baseball’s best shortstops. Overall, he hit .262/.309/.445 (.754) with 31 doubles, four triples and 12 homers while playing solid defense. Escobar should be handed the Twins shortstop job in 2016 and let him run with it. This is his first year of arbitration.

    Arbitration Projections:

    Twins Daily: $2.5M

    MLB Trade Rumors: $1.8M

    Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 100%

    EDUARDO NUNEZ

    The Twins acquired Nunez from the Yankees before the 2014 season in exchange for LHP Miguel Sulburan. He hit .250 with a .654 OPS in 2014. The Twins offered him arbitration and they agreed at just over $1 million. Nunez played in just 72 games but played well in a utility role. He hit .282/.327/.431 (.758) with four homers. He also played around the diamond and pinch hit. With Escobar the likely starter, and Danny Santana being out of options, Nunez would be a 2nd utility infielder which makes this decision a little bit more difficult.

    Arbitration Projections:

    Twins Daily: $2.0M

    MLB Trade Rumors: $1.8M

    Percent Chance Twins Will Offer Arbitration: 60%

    So, if you’re the GM of the Twins, what do you do? Which players do you offer arbitration and which do you non-tender? And, more important, why?

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily (including Brewer Fanatic, North Side Baseball), Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects. #GirlDad
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

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    Featured Comments

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I'm in the camp of non-tendering Milone. Whether he's at $4.5 million up to $7 million, the amount is still going to be significant enough where he will be favored over a younger player such as Berrios, Duffey, Meyer, etc. That's been the argument this whole time with Nolasco, Hughes, Santana, etc. that they're making too much money not to be in the rotation. 

    In a perfect world he would be in the same role he was last year; in AAA until an injury happens. But the Twins will not operate like that with his pending salary next season.

     

    Technically, Milone is out of options, and with over 3 years service time, he can now refuse an outright assignment to AAA even if he clears waivers (although maybe that's what you wish was different "in a perfect world").

     

    I know I've made this non-tender argument about Fien, but I'm not quite sure I'd extend it to Milone yet.  We're not likely to sign or acquire another SP this winter, so Milone's presence isn't preventing that, and while his value isn't high, I think he's easily tradeable as a LHSP making only $4.5 mil coming off a 106 ERA+, should we need to move him.  (And I would be looking at trading a starter, especially if we can sign a reliever and give May another shot in the rotation.)

     

    I fear Fien, like Duensing before him, might simply be untradeable for awhile.

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 40,526

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Technically, Milone is out of options, and with over 3 years service time, he can now refuse an outright assignment to AAA even if he clears waivers (although maybe that's what you wish was different "in a perfect world").

     

    I know I've made this non-tender argument about Fien, but I'm not quite sure I'd extend it to Milone yet.  We're not likely to sign or acquire another SP this winter, so Milone's presence isn't preventing that, and while his value isn't high, I think he's easily tradeable as a LHSP making only $4.5 mil coming off a 106 ERA+, should we need to move him.  (And I would be looking at trading a starter, especially if we can sign a reliever and give May another shot in the rotation.)

     

    I fear Fien, like Duensing before him, might simply be untradeable for awhile.

     

    The fact that he's out of options cements my stance of not offering arbitration to him. Unless there's a pending deal in place to trade him this winter, then fine, offer arbitration. Personally I'd rather have an open competition between all of the young guys for the #5 spot this spring. And best case, I'd like to see Berrios up ASAP once the service time loophole has passed. 

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    The fact that he's out of options cements my stance of not offering arbitration to him. Unless there's a pending deal in place to trade him this winter, then fine, offer arbitration. Personally I'd rather have an open competition between all of the young guys for the #5 spot this spring. And best case, I'd like to see Berrios up ASAP once the service time loophole has passed. 

    But I am pretty sure you can unload Milone and his salary in spring training, or early in the season, or basically whenever you need to.  So you can still have your 5th starter competition, look to call up Berrios early, etc, and Milone's lack of options really shouldn't matter.

     

    If Milone sticks around the rotation longer than that and blocks anyone, I suspect it would be the effect of locking May into the pen rather than the cause.  Which would be bad too, but again, the root cause of that situation, or first domino if you will, would be locking up mediocre relievers like Fien and Cotts and passing on real relief upgrades in the FA market.

    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I don't see a reason not to tender Nunez a contract.  The Twins are almost guaranteed to carry two backup IF'ers and he can actually hit alright for a bench player that can play multiple IF/OF positions.  He would pair nice with Danny Santana because the Twins could then keep a bat first bench player which I have always wanted to have on the team.

     

    Fien and Milone are dependent on what else the Twins plan on doing this offseason and how serious they are about putting May into the rotation. 

     

    If May is in the rotation then they are 6 deep plus they need a place to stash Nolasco if he makes the team.  Berrios goes to AAA and Nolasco is either in the rotation or long relief.  There simply isn't room and not a great need for an 8th starter.  You can still tender him a contract but I would trade him for anything.

     

    Fien depends on May, Nolasco/Milone (in long relief) and if the Twins go after another RP'er.  There are only so many bullpen spots available.

     

    In addition to this tendering contracts depends on what kind of spending the Twins have planned.  If they are mostly standing pat and don't need money then they might as well keep all of the players.  If they are planning to make a mid sized splash somewhere then they might want the financial flexibility.

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I don't think non-tendering Milone is settling on a 5 man rotation.  Even without Milone in house, you have Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May (options), Duffey (options), and Nolasco (like it or not, he's in this picture). As well, you have Berrios in Rochester who is basically major league ready.  On the 40 man, you have a major league ready (with much lower upside) guy in Rogers as well as a wildcard in Meyer.  I don't think the team's depth is hurt by trading Milone.  I'd most certainly do it.  I do agree that if there's no deal in place, he'd be non-tendered.  He doesn't have options, so you cannot stash him in Rochester.  I would think though that someone would trade something for him. Milone is a reliable 5th starter who isn't terribly expensive. That has value, maybe not a ton, but given what some teams have trotted out there every 5th day, someone will take him off our hands, for likely a better return than Sam Fuld.

    TRex

    TRex 264

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    <snip>

    someone will take him off our hands, for likely a better return than Sam Fuld.

    Remember that we signed Sam Fuld off waivers, which is, by definition, someone who has no trade value!

     

    But seriously, is Milone really worth more now than when we acquired him? He is closer to FA, more expensive, and no longer has options remaining?

    sane09

    sane09 213

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    It's all epidemic (that is intentional) now!

    According to the STRIB:

    "The Twins offered 2016 contracts to each of their six arbitration-eligible players by Wednesday’s 11 p.m. deadline. Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Nunez, Kevin Jepsen, Tommy Milone and Casey Fien could have become free agents if the Twins had chosen not to tender contracts by the deadline"

    mikelink45

    mikelink45 17,671

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Move Fien and move on - he had his upside days and relievers are not consistent year by year, however the K trend is a real indicator.  We have other options.  Nunez is another question mark.  He does just enough good to think he has something, but the key is his low cost so he will be kept. 

    Milone and Plouffe should be sign and trade candidates.  The Twins have some players for a multi-player trade!



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