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    To Tank Or Not To Tank?


    Tom Froemming

    After getting off to the worst start in franchise history, the Twins appear to be turning things around this month, but is that something fans should be excited about? It seems like a crazy question, but when you look at the big picture could it be in the best interest of the team's future to tank the rest of the season?

    Image courtesy of Mark L. Baer @ USAToday- #28 Max Kepler

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    In MLB there is nothing but incentive to tanking a season. The worse your record is the higher up you draft and the bigger your allotted bonus pool is to divvy out to those picks. Same deal with international spending, the worse you do the more money you can spend without incurring penalties.

    And it's not like these are small margins. The Phillies, who were the worst team in baseball last year, had over $4 million more to spend in the draft (per MLB.com) and over $1.5 million to spend on the international market (per Baseball America) than the Brewers, who were the 5th-worst team last season. The moral of the story is if you're going to be terrible it pays off to be the worst.

    With the 2016 season already sunk, is there any reason to root for the Twins to turn things around? Personally, I'm not so sure, and the team's performance over its last 15 games has me feeling conflicted.

    Beginning with their 17-5 rout of the Rangers on July 2, the Twins are 10-5 and have outscored their opponents 94-53. The pitching staff hasn't given up more than 6 runs in any game over that stretch, and the offense is clicking after a number of personnel changes. Max Kepler and Brian Dozier have been two of the best hitters in baseball over that stretch and the pitching staff has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.23) this month.

    In a lost season, you're put in an awkward position as a fan. Rooting against your own team seems like a rotten, unthinkable thing to do, but tanking may be the best thing for the future. But how does a team tank? You're never going to get the manager, coaches or any of the players behind the idea of giving away games. I suppose a massive, roster-crippling fire sale could do the trick.

    On the other hand, if the team keeps performing well it's certainly possible that a strong finish to 2016 could carry over. A positive finish to the season could make the long winter seem a little brighter and is only going to help the team attract free agents, if that's the route the new GM decides to take to improving the roster. Nobody is going to want to sign with the worst team in the league.

    Speaking of the new GM, could the way the Twins perform over the next two months also have an influence over what kind of candidates would be interested in the job? And if that's the case, which would be more attractive to the future GM: a young team on the upswing or the No. 1 pick in the draft? It's definitely something to keep in mind.

    What do you think? Would you rather see the Twins tank, or end on a high note?


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    The paragraph I quoted said that even though the Twins had high picks, they missed out on the above named players. I just pointed out that the above named players were all gone before the Twins picked.

    Yes, and again, he is saying that if we had tanked for the #1 overall pick, we could have had a chance to pick them. That is the entire premise of the thread.

    No player should try to lose, nor any manager. Of course, that's not happens in practice in any sport, but that straw man won't die......

     

    I don't think they should call up A players and try to lose.....

     

    I do think they should gut the team of many veterans, and bring up AAA players that are legit parts of the future sooner rather than later.

    Yes, and again, he is saying that if we had tanked for the #1 overall pick, we could have had a chance to pick them. That is the entire premise of the thread.

    I reread the post five times. I can see how you can read it as you've interpreted it. I think it was not written as clearly as it could have been. Regardless, no tanking allowed in baseball.

     

    Hasn't happened often, and not recently. (Aiken chose not to sign because of a reduced offer.) A player taken #1 would probably be nuts to pass up a slot offer.

    I want to agree, but agents and other major sports show clear evidence that it can happen. What about Appel not signing 4 years ago, or Bo Jackson or Eli Manning in NFL. It's only a matter of time, given the money involved.

    I want to agree, but agents and other major sports show clear evidence that it can happen. What about Appel not signing 4 years ago, or Bo Jackson or Eli Manning in NFL. It's only a matter of time, given the money involved.

    Until they allow trading of draft picks, and remove the draft spending caps, those examples aren't really relevant to present day MLB. (IIRC, Appel fell in the draft and declined to sign for a lower slot, so he re-entered and went higher the next year. He would not have refused to sign had he originally been selected #1.)

    Edited by spycake

     

    This whole concept is offensive to me. Tanking a season, IMO, is an ethical crime. It cheats the fan who pays money to see players do their best to win. It cheats the players who pride themselves on their performance and the respect of their abilities. It cheats the other teams of the league who are playing to win and expect their opponents to give it there all every game. It cheats the integrity of the game.

    Now, and I think this is what you're really asking Tom: Should the Twins FO take the approach toward next year and beyond on how they structure and adjust this team without concern about the won/loss record? To that, I say yes. But it should be done with integrity to the game, fans, and players intact. To strive for a higher draft pick is short-sighted and foolish. Making moves by calling up prospects or unloading veterans toward an eye on next year seems prudent and wise.

    When I say tank, I'm thinking like in the movie Major League :) Ownership completely handcuffs the organization in an effort to lose as many games as possible. Except in this scenario we're trying to get the no. 1 pick/ International bonus slot, not move the team to Miami.

     

    I reread the post five times. I can see how you can read it as you've interpreted it. I think it was not written as clearly as it could have been. Regardless, no tanking allowed in baseball.

    Yeah I struggled with the best way to put that. Let me try to make that point again.

     

    In 2013 the Twins got Kohl Stewart at No. 4. That's great, he's got plenty of potential, and as a 21-year-old in Double-A the book's still out on him, obviously. But if the Twins were just a bit crappier that year and picked second, they would have had the opportunity to draft Kris Bryant, who is already a ROY, two-time All-Star and possibly the favorite for NL MVP.

     

    Who knows, maybe the Twins would've taken Stewart anyway. But the difference between going 66-96 in 2012 instead of 61-101 (the Cubs record that year) cost them the opportunity to even consider drafting Bryant. Was it worth 5 wins in a lost season? I'd definitely say no.

     

    Yeah I struggled with the best way to put that. Let me try to make that point again.

     

    In 2013 the Twins got Kohl Stewart at No. 4. That's great, he's got plenty of potential, and as a 21-year-old in Double-A the book's still out on him, obviously. But if the Twins were just a bit crappier that year and picked second, they would have had the opportunity to draft Kris Bryant, who is already a ROY, two-time All-Star and possibly the favorite for NL MVP.

     

    Who knows, maybe the Twins would've taken Stewart anyway. But the difference between going 66-96 in 2012 instead of 61-101 (the Cubs record that year) cost them the opportunity to even consider drafting Bryant. Was it worth 5 wins in a lost season? I'd definitely say no.

    Well stated.

     

    The jury is obviously still out on Buxton in MLB, but it was probably better to pick top 2 in 2012 too than #5 (the oft injured Kyle Zimmer).  That year the Astros leveraged their #1 into an under-slot Correa and above-slot McCullers later.

     

    Not that #4 or #5 picks are bad players, but you generally don't have the same shot at elite talents or leveraging slots like you do at #1 or #2.

     

    (That said, from their August/September records, it looks like the Twins may have been more or less tanking at the end of the season from 2011-2013.)




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