Time for Twins to Address the Elephant in the Room

Emilio Pagan is still a Minnesota Twin. Calls for his release by fans date back to his implosion when he blew three games against the divisional foes Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. 

He started the month of June 2022 with an even 3.00 ERA, by the end of the month it was an alarming 5.26. From the moment Pagan had that last blown lead on June 28 against Cleveland, every Twins fan’s brow begins to sweat mercilessly as he enters a game. 

There have been flashes of his upside since then, but almost a year after that horrific month of June, Pagan is in a similar boat. Wednesday afternoon in the series finale against the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers, Pagan was brought into the game in the bottom of the seventh to replace Jose De Leon who had two runners on with two outs. 

The first batter Pagan faced was the resurging Jason Heyward; he walked him on six pitches. Bases were now loaded with two outs, and the rookie Miguel Vargas came to the plate. He was walked on five pitches, the game was now tied 3-3. 

Then the moment of terror, speaking truth from the old baseball adage ‘Walks will haunt’, and they did. Fellow Dodgers rookie James Outman didn’t need to see anything beyond Pagan’s 95.4 MPH fastball. He crushed a grand slam to center field, securing the Dodgers' 7-3 victory over the Twins. 

Entering the game with a 4.15 ERA, the grand slam ballooned it to a 5.60 ERA. Pagan’s efforts to improve himself after an atrocious long relief outing on April 20, in which he gave up six runs to the Red Sox, turned to ash with that grand slam.

Is this the moment the Twins finally cut ties with fans' greatest source of frustration in the bullpen? It may be.

Every single pitch in his arsenal has dipped in velocity, minus his curveball (up to 81.2 from 80.4 average in 2022). Hitters are also making better contact against his pitches with a wOBA of .356 against his fastball, .612 against his splitter, and .333 against a curveball. The only pitch Pagan has made harder for hitters to see is his cutter, which has a .111 wOBA against 100 hitters. 

There are also young arms in St. Paul posting great numbers itching for their first or second opportunity in the Majors. Jordan Balazovic has redeemed himself from his dreadful 2022 season with a 2.89 ERA in 18 2/3 innings pitched. Brent Headrick has had a 3.24 in 8 1/3 innings with the Twins and they are still lacking a lefty in the bullpen with Caleb Thielbar on the IL. 

Between the pitch arsenal seeing an overall drop in velocity, young arms waiting in the wings, and a continual number of outings where leads and tied games are blown. The time to cut Pagan has never been clearer, and if the Twins don’t go through with it, the fans will make them hear about it until they do.