Are the Tigers Really Coming, or Are They a Year Away?

Last season, the Twins were projected to finish behind the Cleveland Guardians when the season began. There were some who thought that even though the Chicago White Sox, no matter how mismanaged, would be in the hunt as well. When the dust settled, no one kept up with Minnesota, but the Detroit Tigers overtook Cleveland for the second spot in the division.

With Chicago having talent ready to roll and needing a leader to put it all together, they made a catastrophic mistake in hiring Tony La Russa. That bought everyone else in the division time, but when the Detroit Tigers grabbed A.J. Hinch from the Houston Astros, the division was put on notice. With a World Series and two pennants in tow, it was only a matter of time before Hinch put a young organization with a loaded farm in position to win.

Hinch’s Tigers wound up going 78-84 last season, five games better than their Pythagorean record suggested they should be. They took advantage of a weak division and separated themselves from the cellar dwellers, while aiming at the Guardians. Catching the Twins in year one of a resurgence would never happen, but they could draw closer in 2024.

At Bovada, Minnesota is a -115 favorite to repeat as division winners, but the Tigers are only slightly (+375) behind Cleveland (+350) for second place. BetOnline has Minnesota’s win total set at 85 1/2 games, with Detroit coming in behind them at 78 1/2. While Minnesota remains the only Central team with a winning record for the second straight year, Detroit being seen as within striking distance from the start could provide more of a challenge.

With the retirement of Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have what feels like a fresh start, positionally. They were never going to cut him loose without the farewell tour, but now the bulk of his dollars are off the books, and a key roster spot can be turned over to a usable player. Detroit has developed more of those in recent seasons, and they have also made a few additions this offseason.

After something of a slow start, former top prospect Spencer Torkelson emerged and showed some of the legitimate slugging skills he was projected to demonstrate when the team took him first overall in 2020. With 31 homers on the season and a strong second half in all facets, he looks poised to step into the Cabrera role and be a dominant force within the division for years to come.

It isn’t just Torkelson offensively, though. Riley Greene just needs to stay healthy in order to emerge as the division's best young outfielder, and rookie Kerry Carpenter looked the part of a regular in extended run last season. The franchise is undoubtedly hoping that Javier Báez can regain some semblance of the version of himself they signed to a six-year deal, and if they get any return on that investment, their lineup will benefit in a big way.

The pitching staff might be even more intriguing. Tarik Skubal may soon be one of the best pitchers in baseball; he (like Greene) has been lacking only in durability. Former Twins prospect Sawyer Gipson-Long put in an impressive cameo to end the year. They still need to see Casey Mize return healthy and effective, while Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Reese Olson could all settle into big-league roles.

Over the winter, the Tigers have added name-brand arms Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda. Minnesota’s previous starter is set to be their co-ace, alongside Skubal, which limits the group's overall upside, but he should be a stabilizing force for the staff. Flaherty has never shown an ability to stay healthy, but the stuff has always been exciting when it’s working. Lowered expectations in a smaller market could help, which may be what they are banking on.

While it’s unlikely that this is the year everything fully comes together, the Tigers aren’t done infusing talent, either. Max Clark is at least a year away, but he has some of the best upside of any prospect in the sport. Colt Keith should see major-league action this season, and so could Jace Jung. Pitching prospects Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Wilmer Flores all have varying degrees of big-league opportunity this season. If Detroit can continue their development, the water level will only rise higher.

Ultimately, the Tigers are coming, but they aren’t there yet. If the Guardians deal Shane Bieber and/or others, then Detroit should be expected to take over the second spot in the division. With a diligent offseason endgame, Minnesota should cruise to the title, but still, Detroit is an organization that is larger in the rearview mirror than it may initially appear.