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    The Torii Hunter Hangover


    Cody Christie

    When a team starts out as poorly as the Twins have this season, fans are going to be left searching for answers. Is this Terry Ryan's fault for not having a better roster? Are the minor league coaches to blame for not preparing the team's top prospects? Or is there a much simpler answer?

    Over the last week, there has been plenty of discussion about Torii Hunter not being on the current Twins squad. Even national baseball writers have noticed and wondered if Hunter could make a difference in turning this team around. Hunter himself has said that the Twins' "are kind of going through the motions."

    Image courtesy of Marilyn Indahl- USA Today Sports

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    For years fans of this club have engaged in endless discussion about who the clubhouse leader is with Hunter not on the roster. Joe Mauer's quiet demeanor doesn't demand everyone's attention. Some players might react better to more subtle leadership compared to Hunter's boisterous attitude. Players like Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins have taken on leadership roles but it's not quite the same as with Hunter.

    This isn't the first team to struggle a year after Hunter left. There's been an interesting trend in regard to teams Hunter has been on and the clubs' results in the season following his departure.

    Los Angeles Angels Era (2008-2012)

    The Angels were a playoff team the year before Hunter signed with them as a free agent but they were easily swept out of the first round by Boston. In Hunter's first LA season, the team improved from 94 wins to 100 wins, the only team in franchise history to reach the century mark. The Angeles lost to the Red Sox again in 2008 before making the ALCS in 2009 and losing to the Yankees. That was the last year Los Angeles won a playoff series. Hunter's last year in LA was 2012 when the club went 89-73 and finished five games out of first place. The season after he left was even worse as the club dropped to 78-84. The Angels finished 18 games out of first which was their worst mark since 2003.

    Detroit Tigers Time (2013-2014)

    Hunter moved on from Los Angeles and came back to the AL Central in 2013. The Tigers were coming off a World Series sweep the year prior to signing Hunter. Detroit jumped from 88 wins in 2012 to 93 wins with Hunter in the line-up. That club made it to the ALCS before falling to the Red Sox in six games. Detroit's 90 wins topped the AL Central again in 2014 but they were swept by Baltimore in the ALDS. The club took a big step backward during their first year without Hunter and finished 74-87 (20.5 games behind Kansas City).

    Minnesota Twins Homecoming (2015)

    Minnesota brought Hunter back last year on the heels of four straight 90-loss seasons. Some questioned the move since it didn't seem like the Twins were in a position to start winning now. The Twins proved plenty of doubters wrong as the team wasn't eliminated from playoff contention until the final weekend of the season. Minnesota also improved from 70 wins in 2014 to 83 wins. His play on the field wasn't leading to wins but his off the field leadership might have kept morale a little higher. It's hard to argue with results as the Twins have struggled to get to double-digits wins by the middle of May.

    All three of Hunter's clubs have struggled in the year after he left. Los Angeles won 11 fewer games, Detroit fell by 16 games, and Minnesota seems destined for another 90 losses. Can one player make that much of a difference?

    There's no way to quantify what a player's off-field contributions are to a team. A lot of this leadership happens behind closed doors and out of the earshot of local media members. From dance parties to firing guys up in the clubhouse, Hunter made his mark on this franchise but he certainly couldn't get the current squad into playoff contention by himself.

    Hunter has been the heart and soul of this organization during his two Minnesota stints but there isn't a simple solution to fix the 2016 Twins because there are plenty of other things wrong with this team. Pitchers need to pitch better and batters need to break out of their slumps. Baseball is a game of adjustments and this club hasn't made the right adjustments yet.

    No number of dance parties is going to fix those issues.

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    I will say this........

     

    I understand why people think this. They were terrible, Hunter came, they were good. Hunter left, now they are worse than terrible. Our brains are wired to think that there is causation there. But, those relationships in and of themselves are insufficient to show causation.

     

    The other thing I'll say is that people vastly underestimate the role of luck in outcomes over 162 games......and that last year it is clear they had lots of good luck, and this year they have had bad play and bad luck (though it is mostly bad play).

     

    If I had to guess, this is more about terrible team defense, utility guys in the lineup every day, and other issues much more than it is about culture. But, I do think there is a cultural issue. Not sitting there day to day, though? I have no idea if there is, or what it is.

    thing is, we had one awesome month last year.we only had one other month over .500. If his leadership was responsible, did he take a break the other 5 months of the season? Leadership is needed of course, it obviously helps in many areas of work including team sports, but sequencing was the main cause of our record last year and I doubt having Torii here would make a huge difference in our record this year.

     

    thing is, we had one awesome month last year.we only had one other month over .500. If his leadership was responsible, did he take a break the other 5 months of the season? Leadership is needed of course, it obviously helps in many areas of work including team sports, but sequencing was the main cause of our record last year and I doubt having Torii here would make a huge difference in our record this year.

     

    I don't disagree with any of this......I just understand why people believe otherwise. I also believe that leadership and culture matter, but we don't have a good understanding of it, or it's effects.

     

    thing is, we had one awesome month last year.we only had one other month over .500. If his leadership was responsible, did he take a break the other 5 months of the season? Leadership is needed of course, it obviously helps in many areas of work including team sports, but sequencing was the main cause of our record last year and I doubt having Torii here would make a huge difference in our record this year.

    Or perhaps having a leader who has been there, is widely respected, and can effectively convey the need for an even keel, but maximum effort day in and day out, was one reason why last year's team was able to overachieve.  Able to, after a rough first week, put it behind them and at least, if not winning, avoiding long, demoralizing stretches of sub-MLB quality play.  Keep the losing months respectable, so the winning month mattered right up till the end.

     

    I doubt having Hunter here would make a huge difference either. 

     

    Just like having Mike Trout wouldn't make a huge difference.  

     

    But little differences add up, particularly in a sport where a .550 winning percentage is pretty good, and .450 is pretty bad.

    I'm willing to consider that Torii Hunter is a special person whose presence elevates an atmosphere. Perhaps it's a rare skill. Based on the correlations being cited between his departures from the Angels and Tigers, it sounds like he (and by implication, his leadership) was irreplaceable, even by veteran teams with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, four of the greatest players of this century. Tongue partly in cheek, but if Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera couldn't overcome the loss of Torii Hunter, what hope could the Twins possibly have? More seriously, his on-field performance this year was likely to be lesser than last year and definitely worse than Park's (Hunter would play either RF or DH), and I'd much rather have Park. Also, Hunter is being credited with too much, such as helping Milone with his pitches. It reminds me of the Phil Hartman skit where he played Reagan and solved every problem. It was a farce, as are some of the claimed problems that Hunter would have solved. At some point, the biggest problem is everyone whining about the loss of Hunter, instead of looking internally and taking ownership for solving the team's miasma.

     

    1.) It's silly to assume that Hunter's presence on this team would make them even a .500 team right now.

     

    2.) It's silly to assume that Hunter's presence on this team would not have a significant impact. 

    Playing an actual replacement level outfielder in RF instead of Sano would insure #2 is correct. I don't think that outfielder needs to be named Torii Hunter.

     

    This disaster has nothing to do with Hunter and everything to do with a front office that is unable or unwilling to do its job correctly. 




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