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    Sizing Up The Competition: Detroit Tigers


    Nick Nelson

    It wasn't so long ago that the Tigers were the laughing stock of baseball. From 1998 through 2005 they lost an average of 97 games, including a 119-loss season in 2003 that was among the worst in major-league history.

    To say that Detroit has come a long way would be an understatement, as the Motor City Kitties have now won the American League Central four years running. But times are changing at Comerica; erstwhile ace Justin Verlander ain't what he used to be, and the stud who replaced him in that role, Max Scherzer, recently signed a monster contract with the Nationals.

    Can these restructured Tigers retain their roar?

    Image courtesy of Peter Aiken, USA TODAY Sports

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    2014 Record: 90-72

    Runs Scored/Allowed: 757 / 705

    Key Additions: Yoenis Cespedes (OF), Anthony Gose (OF), Alfredo Simon (SP), Shane Greene (SP)

    Key Departures: Max Scherzer (SP), Rick Porcello (SP), Torii Hunter (OF)

    Why They'll Be Better

    The Tigers have been one of the American League's best offensive teams for quite a while, and that should remain true, even with question marks surrounding their two best hitters. Miguel Cabrera is recovering back from a significant ankle surgery and Victor Martinez, coming off a career year, is now 36.

    But those are still two guys you want to build your lineup around, and there's plenty to like elsewhere. Detroit replaced the aging Hunter with Cespedes, which figures to be an upgrade and maybe a big one. Right fielder J.D. Martinez enjoyed a breakout season in 2014, and talented young hitters like Jose Iglesias and Nick Castellanos have the potential to do so this year.

    Why They'll Be Worse

    Power pitching has been foundational to Detroit's success, but with Scherzer gone and Verlander evidently on the downslope, is their pitching really that powerful anymore? Sure, the Tigers still have David Price and Anibal Sanchez leading the way, but the back half of their rotation looks as weak as it has in years, and their bullpen -- which struggled frequently last year -- is none too intimidating.

    This is an aging team, and a farm system that has been gutted through GM Dave Dombrowski's aggressive maneuvering was ranked last week by ESPN.com's prospect guru Keith Law as the worst in all of baseball, so little help is on the way.

    What To Expect

    The Tigers allowed 705 runs last year -- most by far of any playoff team -- and it's tough to see how they're going to reduce that number with Scherzer and Porcello gone. If some young guys can step up, and closer Joe Nathan can rebound at age 40, Detroit might get enough from the staff to hang on atop the division, but I think it's more likely that the Tigers' reign over the AL Central is going to come to an end. They look as vulnerable as they have in many years.

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    Detroit managed to get Price, not with the farm system, but with two of their few remaining young players.  They gave up Drew Smyly, 25, who started 7 games for the Rays and went 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA, and Austin Jackson, 28, who struggled with Seattle but has been a good player.  They've eaten through the farm system and started trading young major leaguers for older major leaguers.

     

    How long can that last?

    Detroit managed to get Price, not with the farm system, but with two of their few remaining young players.  They gave up Drew Smyly, 25, who started 7 games for the Rays and went 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA, and Austin Jackson, 28, who struggled with Seattle but has been a good player.  They've eaten through the farm system and started trading young major leaguers for older major leaguers.

     

    How long can that last?

     

    It's not jsut trading prospects.  They turned that awful Fielder contract into Kinsler.  They signed JD Martinez and now Cespedas as relative bargains with good bouncebak potential.  They turned Granderson, a guy with a skill set that wouldn't age well, into Scherzer and Austin Jackson.

     

    Say what you want about their age (they are old) and their farm (it's not good), but the Tigers have proven to be remarkably effective with what resources they have available to them.  

    It's not jsut trading prospects.  They turned that awful Fielder contract into Kinsler.  They signed JD Martinez and now Cespedas as relative bargains with good bouncebak potential.  They turned Granderson, a guy with a skill set that wouldn't age well, into Scherzer and Austin Jackson.

     

    Say what you want about their age (they are old) and their farm (it's not good), but the Tigers have proven to be remarkably effective with what resources they have available to them.  

    I do agree with that, and as long as they have a wealthy owner spewing money like water they will probably be at least competitive.  I wonder if his heirs will have the same interest- maybe.  How much money will they be willing to spend, though?  

    At some point, opposing GMs are going to stop letting themselves get hosed by Dombroski, right?

     

    The Tigers shouldn't have gotten away with a few of those trades but hey, good for them that they were able to pull it off.

     

    I still can't believe they managed to offload that Fielder contract.

    I still can't believe they managed to offload that Fielder contract.

     

    Yeah, Texas did the analysis and concluded that while Prince was not going to age well, he would probably age much better in Texas summers, playing near 100 degrees each day.

    I do agree with that, and as long as they have a wealthy owner spewing money like water they will probably be at least competitive.  I wonder if his heirs will have the same interest- maybe.  How much money will they be willing to spend, though?  

     

    I think you have seen the Tigers keep about the same payroll and it won't increase further.  They have picked and choosed a bit lately, letting Max walk for example.   They tried extended one of Max or Miggy.  They probably don't do the Victor extension until they off-loaded Prince.  And I don't see them handing out another $27M a year deal to Price.

     

    If that is an accurate assessment, they won't have payroll wiggle room to add and the money tied up will get older and older.

     

    The question about the heirs is a fair one. My understanding is the Illitch just wants a ring and is not in good health.  I can admire that.  He is losing about $30M a year but doesn't care because his other businesses are making money hand over first.  Maybe the heirs don't have the same passion, who knows.

    As long as the heirs get all of them, I suppose it doesn't matter that much. But I can say that if the Tigers are losing that much money, if the business get split, someone gets hosed. I still think they are going to hover around .500, but when Price goes, that's probably it. They have nothing to keep this run going, and they are aging. I wouldn't be shocked in the least if the Twins finished above them in the standings this season.




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