Should the Twins Trade For This Baltimore Orioles Starting Pitcher?

In his novel Slaughterhouse-Five, author Kurt Vonnegut depicts an interaction between the protagonist of the novel, Billy Pilgrim, and a Tralfamadorian. That's the alien species who abduct Billy, put him on display in a zoo-like dome on their planet, and teach him their philosophy on life. During the interaction, the Tralfmadorians deliver Billy an enlightening truth about the universe and life. The conversation goes

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"Why you? Why us for that matter? Why anything? Because the moment simply is. Have you ever seen bugs trapped in amber?"

"Yes," Billy, in fact, had a paperweight in his office which was a blob of polished amber with three ladybugs embedded in it.

"Well, here we are, Mr. Pilgrim, trapped in the amber of this moment. There is no why."

Though this passage addresses more introspective and existential trains of thought, it feels fitting to describe the present state of the offseason. Here we are, Twins fans: bugs trapped in amber. 

Though the organization presently finds itself in this state, the Twins will likely execute a significant trade or free-agent signing before the start of spring training. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey and the front office purposely idle and let the free-agent and trade markets play out, until they feel that making a move is the correct course of action. Remember, two of the most significant transactions in franchise history (the long-term signing of Carlos Correa and the Luis Arraez-for-Pablo López swap) didn't occur until mid-January. 

As we sit here in mid-December, the team's priority is to replace the recently departed American League Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, who generated a combined 6.4 Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference (bWAR).

Chris Paddack looks to be the one-for-one replacement for Maeda in the starting rotation, and while replacing Gray will be a much more strenuous endeavor, names like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Jesús Luzardo, and Logan Gilbert have been thrown around by many as potential replacement plans. Acquiring one of those guys would generate major buzz in Twins Territory, but the organization's likelihood of pulling off a trade that noteworthy again seems thin. 

Could it make sense, instead, for the front office to acquire a back-of-the-rotation starter who would effectively move Louie Varland to the "sixth starter" role and start the season at Triple-A St. Paul, similar to what Bailey Ober did in 2023, or let him join the bullpen in the place of newly-minted Reds reliever Emilio Pagán?

If so, many arms are available who could be acquired for a package that would be palatable. Of those options, this steady, cost-controlled Baltimore Orioles right-handed starting pitcher could make sense.

Dean Kremer - Baltimore Orioles - 172 2/3 innings, 4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.5 fWAR
Kremer, 27, is the epitome of a consistent middle-to-back of the rotation starting pitcher who can put together a string of highly effective starts, similar to the campaign Varland put together last season. The difference between the two is that Kremer has been able to perform at this rate over 53 starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, while Varland only strung together five above-average starts before being sent down to Triple-A St. Paul and returning later in the season as a reliever.

Also, Varland had a severe home-run issue as a starter, evidenced by the 20.6% HR/FB he yielded over the 56 innings pitched as a starter for the Twins last season. For reference, Kremer generated a 13.9% HR/FB over 172 2/3 innings he pitched for the 101-win Orioles. Also, Kremer performed better than Varland in specific park-adjusted metrics such as:

(*100 is average, and lower is better) 

ERA-

• Varland - 110
• Kremer - 98

FIP-

• Varland - 119
• Kremer - 107

According to Baseball Savant's "Park Factors Leaderboard," Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the eighth-most hitter-friendly park in Major League Baseball, compared to Target Field, the 18th most hitter-friendly park. Kremer made 18 of his 32 starts (56%) of his starts in Baltimore, while Varland made four of his 10 (40%) at home in Minnesota; his other six starts came at ballparks that are considered more pitcher-friendly. To be specific, here are the other six stadiums at which Varland made starts, with their respective "Park Factors Leaderboard" ranking:

• Yankee Stadium (22nd)
• Guaranteed Rate Field (14th)
• Angel Stadium (13th)
• Minute Maid Park (17th)
• Tropicana Field (28th)
• Rogers Centre (15th)

None of these parks are more hitter-friendly than Camden Yards, and only two of the six tilt toward being hitter-friendly. Even those parks are right around average. Nevertheless, Kremer pitched in a much less pitcher-friendly environment than Varland and could thrive if half his starts were at Target Field.

I don't mean to bash Varland, but the idea of him being the Twins' fifth starter going into 2024 makes me uneasy. If the Twins front office elects not to shell out prospects for a frontline starter and to pursue a lower-tier option instead, then Kremer should be a top target. Kremer could slot in as the team's fourth starter behind Joe Ryan and Ober, rounding out a respectable back end of the rotation with Paddack.

As illustrated in the video above, Kremer is a unique pitcher who utilizes entirely different pitches, depending on the handedness of the batter. The former 14th-round-pick is an "east-to-west" pitcher, using a fastball-cutter-sinker mix 90% of the time when facing same-handed hitters. Against lefties, though, he becomes a pitcher who leans on his changeup as a complement to his four-seam fastball. That's a fascinating and seemingly effective strategy, but it would be interesting to see if the Twins would encourage Kremer to lean on a more consistent approach that emphasizes his strengths. He and the team's coaching staff could thus fine-tune his pitch mix as the season develops and batters make adjustments to him.

Kremer isn't a free agent until the end of the 2027 season, and that club control would compel the Twins to surrender something substantial for him. The Twins would probably need to send a package of David Festa (a near-MLB-ready arm) and José Miranda to the Orioles to acquire a cheap, controllable hurler like Kremer. 

Nevertheless, the Twins will acquire a starting pitcher this offseason. Though it would be ideal if the organization traded for an analog of Gray like Burnes, Bieber, Luzardo, or Gilbert, their budget and farm system might make that impossible. Is Kremer an attractive target? Would you trade Festa and Miranda for his services? Join the discussion and comment below.