Should Griffin Jax Get Another Shot in the Twins' Starting Rotation?

In an otherwise quiet offseason so far, a very impactful bit of Twins speculation dropped on Wednesday, leaving fans to wonder whether they’ll see Griffin Jax closing down games for the team in 2025. Does it make any sense for the team to change his role?

While this isn’t exactly a commitment on the Twins' part to move Jax to the rotation, it is noteworthy, after Jax made it known that he wanted to have another shot at the starting rotation several times in 2024. It makes sense for him, as there’s more money to be found as a solid starting pitcher than even a high-leverage reliever. The Twins should be highly skeptical of how it benefits their roster to make this move, though.

The Minnesota bullpen ranked 9th in the AL with a 4.12 ERA in 2024 and was a big reason for the team’s collapse down the stretch. There’s plenty to like about the returning names, but counting on players like Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, and even Jhoan Durán in 2025 seems like a much riskier bet after watching 2024 play out. While relief pitchers are volatile, Jax appears to be the safest bet of the current group after posting a 2.03 ERA in 71 innings. Moving Jax would leave an enormous hole in the back end of games, and this regime has given us enough evidence to assume they would not be bringing in another reliever of any consequence to bridge the gap.

In regard to the rotation, the Twins' starting pitching is not as much in question, when it comes to high-end talent or depth. Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan are a formidable top three. Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack should have the inside track on the other two spots, assuming they’re both on the Opening Day roster. In addition to David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who debuted in 2024, the team has several exciting young arms expected to open the season in St. Paul, including Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and Andrew Morris. One could argue that the team should be looking to deal pieces away from this group, rather than pulling from other parts of the roster to reinforce it.

When it comes to Jax’s desire to move back to the rotation, it’s hard to blame him. In addition to the financial incentives, he’s done a lot to warrant another opportunity. He posted a 6.37 ERA in his debut, as his two-pitch mix got crushed. In the three years since, he’s developed a repertoire that includes two different fastballs, two breaking balls, and an effective changeup. He has the tools to work through lineups multiple times, theoretically, and it’s easy to see why he would be confident in his ability to work through opposing lineups multiple times. He did force both lefties and righties to respect three or four possible pitch types, which is a key factor for a would-be starter.

Unfortunately, it's not that simple after three years of pitching out of the bullpen. Jax’s assortment of pitches had strong indicators in metrics like Stuff+ and performed exceptionally well, but that was in short bursts where he could give 100% effort on every pitch. There were whispers that Jax preferred not to pitch more than a single inning at a time because of the intensity he summoned to execute that way. He only pitched more than one inning in five of his seventy-two appearances in 2024. He’s conditioned to pitch in short stints at this point. His stuff will decline as he’s stretched back out, and it’s impossible to say to what degree. His career high in innings pitched is 127, coming back in 2019. Injury must also be a concern if he were to build back up. 

In moving Jax to the starting rotation, the Twins would be making a significant gamble. In order to make up for the loss of Jax’s dominance in the bullpen, he would have to be a mid to high-end starting pitcher, especially considering that his innings will likely be limited. Given their current depth chart, the team simply wouldn’t benefit from a middling or back-end starting pitcher. Adding one to the current group would accomplish nothing other than blocking the young arms they already have. 

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It would be hard to blame the Twins for respecting Jax’s wishes, but it’s hard to imagine taking one of the bright spots from a disastrous 2024 season and completely changing their role. There is a reality where Griffin Jax, the starting pitcher, pays off for the Twins, but given the need for him in the bullpen and the current state of the rotation, it seems like the Twins would be betting against the odds. 

Should the Twins give Jax a shot at the rotation? Should he remain the anchor of a currently questionable bullpen? Let us know below!