Purchasing A Rotation, And What It Means

Point taken--sort of. I wouldn't use the phrase "very untrue" to describe the value of an Ace to a WS contender, which is kind of where I see some posters going. I went all the way back to the 2013 season and saw that Lester pitched pretty good in the postseason. San Francisco has three World Series trips in five years with all their own drafted pitchers. 

Going back two years seems like a poor sample.  Take the last decade and look at how the actual top-end pitchers performed.  

I used to believe the same thing you do, but the stats are absolutely unsupportive of that opinion.  The best ingredient to winning a World Series is a lot of luck and enough guys getting hot at the same time.  Or basically the ingredients for success in any small sample.

Necessary is the key word.  I'd say no to the idea that the ace is necessary, but I'd be hard pressed to say it doesn't hurt.  I also subscribe to the idea that there are about 10 true aces in MLB as well.   I believe that most of us would agree that a rotation of 5 number 2s is better than a 1-5, and Ryan is attempting at doing that with the Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana signings as these guys are all 2/3 types (though Hughes pitched like a 1 this season and Nolasco... well didn't).  That rotation of 2/3 types is also a lot cheaper than the ace, so there's something to be said about spreading the money around and getting better results overall, b/c if they piled all that money one guy, you are looking at more types of guys like Walters getting starts.

The other thing about post season is the SSS issue.  An ace can pitch well and the team can still lose if the offense cannot score or if the other pitchers just get beat.  An ace will pitch twice in a 5 gamer and 3 times at best in a 7 gamer.  And if you use all 3 bullets in the CS, it's likely the ace isn't going to pitch 3 games in the WS.  Same goes with the DS/CS.

That said, the Twins appear to building a nice depth of top end talent and have plenty of depth of guys who won't embarrass themselves in MLB as well.  Their 3 guys under contract (I expect Nolasco to rebound) paired with Meyer, Gibson, May, and Berrios in the shorter term should be fine, and as those contracts expire, guys like Stewart, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Hu all look like they could step up and pitch in the 1-3 range.  They have plenty of other depth guys who look more like 3/4 type guys in Rogers, Duffey, Lee, Darnell, etc that could step in as needed too, though I suspect many of these guys get traded assuming the others remain relatively healthy.

Back to the topic, a few of those younger guys could very well be that ace guy, but in the mean time, they should have decent pitching top to bottom...  Of course, as dreadful as that defense was last season, I'm not sure how much it will really help unless their pitchers are striking out 20 guys a game. Even though he's lost a step, I'm hoping Hunter can teach guys like Arcia, Buxton, and Hicks the nuances of playing good OF defense.

The more I think about it, the more I think Milone will end up with the fifth spot if he has a decent spring. That would put Pelfrey and Meyer in the 'pen with May starting at AAA as the "first guy up".

 

I'm trying to convince myself I'm okay with that...

I'm trying to convince myself that it doesn't seem likely.