Twins Video
They let Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing and Neal Cotts – who provided 25 percent of the team's total relief innings last year – walk as free agents, and replaced them with... nobody.
Well, that's not entirely accurate. They signed several relievers to minor-league contracts. But here in the middle of February we still have not seen the Twins add one single pitcher on a major-league contract. Even for a team that routinely eschews free agency and opts for internal development, that is rare.
It looks as though Minnesota will build around a back-end bullpen core of Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien and Trevor May. In a seven-man unit, that leaves three remaining spots, with plenty of names competing to earn a job.
Today we'll run through the various candidates to round out the relief corps, with the front-runners at the top of the list. Given the turnover that we're likely to see in the bullpen throughout this season, it's a good idea to familiarize yourself with all of these guys.
Why Fernando Abad Will Win A Job
I remain convinced that Terry Ryan will end up signing one of these free agent lefty relievers before the season gets underway, but as things stand, Abad is the only southpaw in the mix for the Twins with any kind of substantial experience in a big-league bullpen.
He has 258 career appearances, and over the past three seasons with Oakland and Washington, the 30-year-old has put up a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while averaging 8.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Those are all very solid numbers. His 2015 was not good, however, as he was plagued by the long ball and saw his velocity drop across the board. The A's went 16-46 in his appearances, suggesting that they didn't view him as a high-leverage arm to be deployed with a lead.
Another particularly troubling aspect of Abad is that he has never been all that good against left-handed hitters, who have a .254/.304/.411 career line against him (by contrast, Duensing has a .238/.289/.325 career line against LH hitters). So while he may end up as the top lefty in the pen, Abad could hardly be viewed as a situational specialist.
Why Michael Tonkin Will Win A Job
He's out of options. The time has come for the Twins to finally give Tonkin a legitimate look in the majors, because if they don't, someone else is going to.
Tonkin has been a top relief prospect in the system for many years, racking up tons of strikeouts in the minors with a power fastball that registers in the mid-90s. His numbers during a few short stints in the majors haven't been all that shabby, but for whatever reason, the Twins have never committed to letting him ride. Last year, they were busy prioritizing veteran journeymen like Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer. It was odd.
One thing that will work in Tonkin's favor this time around is that there's no Rule 5 pick sitting at the end of the bullpen, as was the case with J.R. Graham last year. This means that even if the Twins don't feel confident enough in Tonkin to routinely use him in close games, they can hide him a little better while trying to help him polish his secondary pitches.
Why Ricky Nolasco Will Win A Job
I'm not sure the veteran Nolasco would consider this to be "winning" anything, but if he loses out in the rotation competition, where he appears to be at a distinct disadvantage, he will almost certainly open the season as a swing man in the bullpen. The Twins can't send him to the minors and still owe him too much money to simply cut him.
Nolasco been a starter almost exclusively in his career, but the transition to long relief shouldn't be all that challenging. If he performs well, he can serve as a solid depth option when the Twins find themselves needing reinforcements in the rotation.
Why Ryan O'Rourke Will Win A Job
When you look at his overall numbers, O'Rourke doesn't stand out much as a prospect. A former 13th-round pick, he has a 4.15 career ERA in the minors and didn't debut in the majors until age 27.
When you drill a little deeper, though, you find that throughout his pro career, O'Rourke has been flat-out lethal against left-handed hitters. In six minor-league seasons, he has struck out 40 percent that he has faced while often bordering on unhittable. Last year with the Twins, though his final numbers weren't very good, he still held lefty swingers to a .171 average with 19 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances.
He needs to be used in a very specific way in order to be effective, but as a pure match-up southpaw, there's no better option in this group. Given Abad's weakness in that department, O'Rourke feels like a necessity. But can they find room for him?
Why Ryan Pressly Will Win A Job
Paul Molitor was apparently quite impressed with Pressly last year before the righty went down with a lat strain that cost him most of the season. "I don’t think people realize how well (Pressly) was throwing the ball before he got hurt last year, and now he’s healthy," the manager told Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press in January.
Indeed, Pressly was averaging a career-high 94.2 MPH with his heater and flashing a sharp slider, although neither of those things manifested in a particularly impressive K/BB ratio. Pressly has been around the organization for three years now since being selected as a Rule 5 pick and it's time to take a good long look at him. However, if it comes down to a battle between him and Tonkin, I would guess that Pressly will open in Triple-A.
Why Brandon Kintzler Will Win A Job
Like Abad, Kintzler offers something that is in short supply among this group: experience. He has made 172 appearances for the Brewers over the past six years, and was at one point a pretty decent setup man.
He's coming off injuries, though, and would need to be added to the 40-man roster. If he does well in Ft. Myers, I could see the final spot coming down to him and O'Rourke or another lefty. At that point it just depends on how comfortable Molitor is without a designated lefty suppressor in the late innings. (Though, to his credit, Kintzler has actually done quite well in that regard.)
Why J.R. Graham Will Win A Job
Injuries look to be Graham's only path to the roster. He hung around in the Twins bullpen for the entirety of last season thanks to his status as a Rule 5 draftee, but he was never all that impressive and now the Twins have no obligation to carry him.
His stand-out velocity and ongoing adaptation to relieving make him interesting. It sounds like he really committed himself to getting fit during the offseason, shedding 30-plus pounds and thinning down to the point where one person who saw him at TwinsFest described him to me as looking "almost emaciated."
Will Graham's transformed physique help him cut down on the amount of hard contact opponents are able to generate? We'll see, but regardless of how he performs in camp it's difficult to envision him surpassing both Tonkin and Pressly.
Why Taylor Rogers Will Win A Job
Rogers has come up through the minors as a starter, but he's more intriguing as a left-handed relief option thanks to his demolition of same-sided hitters. Last year in Triple-A, Rogers held lefties to a .177/.209/.193 line. The prior in Double-A it was .217/.268/.287.
He hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors and hasn't really had a chance to adjust to a relief role, but he looks very equipped to fill a specific need for the Twins. He is also already on the 40-man roster after being added in November.
Why Alex Meyer Will Win A Job
Meyer's 2015 season was undeniably a huge mess, but it's important to remember that one year ago he was being ranked as a Top 30 prospect in all of baseball by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The premium velocity and filthy stuff that earned him such acclaim remain intact, so Meyer ought to be viewed as a major wild-card in the bullpen if and when he can straighten out his mechanics.
The consistent struggles from start to finish last year suggest that he's not likely to have everything figured out in time for Opening Day, but Meyer should not be discounted as a potential impact call-up somewhere along the line in 2016.
Why Nick Burdi Will Win A Job
He's the best pure relief prospect in the system, capable of touching triple digits with his overpowering fastball that complements a nasty slider. But like Meyer, Burdi endured a tumultuous 2015 season. He opened the campaign as Chattanooga's closer, but control problems led to his being demoted back to Single-A about halfway through.
Burdi did finish on a strong note, pitching well in the final month after returning to Double-A and then turning in a lights-out performance in the Arizona Fall League. Still, it's hard to see the Twins pushing him to the majors before he has demonstrably improved his command.
Why Mike Strong Will Win A Job
Given the depth of their system, space on the 40-man roster is at a premium for the Twins. In order to claim Strong off waivers from the Marlins, they risked losing another left-handed pitcher that they value in Logan Darnell. That alone says something for what they think of Strong.
He has sometimes shown shaky control in the minors and has no meaningful experience above Double-A, but he does have this going for him: strikeouts. He has averaged 9.6 K/9 in the minors, differentiating him from the field somewhat in an area that ought to be a main focus.
Others In The Mix: Mason Melotakis, Pat Dean, J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, Aaron Thompson, Dan Runzler, Buddy Boshers
Everybody in that group has better than a snowball's chance if he comes into camp and really opens some eyes, which speaks to the breadth of this competition. Melotakis, Chargois and Dean carry a slight edge since they're on the 40-man and wouldn't require a move, but they seem like long shots.
Going over this list of 19 names, and considering them a little more deeply, it becomes easier to understand why the front office was so passive in its approach to the market. They're handcuffed to some extent with Tonkin and Nolasco, and once you account for the other four locks, that limits flexibility to evaluate a number of deserving candidates.
This might turn out to be a rather experimental year for the Minnesota bullpen. That's probably not good news in the short term, but could pay off in 2017 and beyond.







Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now