Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins News & Analysis

    Out Of Options But Not Out Of The Plans


    Seth Stohs

    Heading into the offseason, the Minnesota Twins had six players who would be out of options heading into the 2016 season. Two were traded (Aaron Hicks, Chris Herrmann). One was DFAd (Josmil Pinto). There are three players who will report to spring training in two weeks needing to make the 25-man roster or potentially be lost on waivers. Will any of those three make the team, and what type of impact can they have in 2016?

    Prior to Twins Fest, General Manager addressed the media. Among several other comments, he mentioned the three guys who will be out of options.

    Image courtesy of John Rieger, USA Today

    Twins Video

    “We do have three players that are out of options, three guys that I’m hoping will respond. Oswaldo Arcia, Michael Tonkin and Danny Santana. All three of those guys have a spot on this club if they just come in and earn it.”

    That makes sense. Any pre-spring training Twins Opening Day roster projection typically contains all three of those players. All three were once highly-touted prospects. They were the types of prospects that most wouldn’t have thought would need all three option years and get to this point. So while they had disappointing seasons in 2015, they are all young and still have a lot of potential.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    Danny Santana

    Santana was added to the Twins 40-man roster in November of 2012. He spent the 2013 season in New Britain. He began the 2014 season in Rochester, but in the first week of May he was called up to the big league club. He replaced Mike Pelfrey on the roster, but less than a week later shortstop Pedro Florimon was optioned. A month later, Aaron Hicks was optioned to AA and Danny Santana became the everyday center fielder. He responded by hitting .319/.353/.472 (.824) with 21 doubles, seven triples and seven home runs.

    An unmaintainable BABIP and a questionable minor league track record (offensively and defensively) meant that he was due for some regression in 2015. However, no one could have predicted just how far Santana’s performance would drop. He hit just .215/.241/.291 (.532) in 101 games. He was basically handed the shortstop job out of spring training and was unable to recreate his 2014 success.

    Ryan also said that Santana would be making another position change in 2016.

    “We’re also going to move Danny Santana back into the outfield. We’ll see if we can resurrect Danny. He had a tough year this year. We like him. He’s got skills. Hopefully he will respond.”

    There has never been any question about Santana’s talent and athleticism. He will also be only 25 years old throughout the 2016 season. While no one thinks or expects him to put up the numbers he did in 2014, he can provide value to the Twins. Santana will likely spend spring training with time at all three outfield positions. While Torii Hunter will spend a lot of time trying to help Miguel Sano transition to right field, I would expect that he will also be working a lot with Santana at all three outfield positions. I think that Santana should still bring his infield glove and get some repetitions at shortstop, second base and even third base.

    And as Nick wrote yesterday, if Byron Buxton doesn't win the starting center field job out of spring training, Santana may be an option for that job again.

    Oswaldo Arcia

    Arcia was added to the Twins 40-man roster in November of 2011. He split 2012 between Ft. Myers and New Britain. In 2013, he began in Rochester but by mid-April, he was up with the Twins. In 97 games, he hit .251/.304/.430 (.734) with 17 doubles and 14 home runs. In 2014, he hit just .231/.300/.452, but he added 20 home runs, as a 23-year-old.

    Arcia had a very disappointing 2015 season. He played in just 19 games for the Twins and then hit under .200 in Rochester. He didn’t even get a September call-up, and frankly, he didn’t deserve one.

    He has his shortcomings. He doesn’t hit left-handed pitching. He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. His defense in either corner outfield spot leaves much to be desired. However, that doesn’t mean that he can't provide value for the Twins in 2016, and maybe even beyond. He can play both corner positions. He has little range, but he catches most of what he gets to. He has a good arm. He can hit for a lot of power against right-handed pitchers. He also doesn’t turn 25 until a week into May.

    With the Twins committed to Miguel Sano in right field, it is likely that Arcia can get a game a week out there, allowing Sano to play some third base or DH. Arcia could be a powerful bat off the bench. If there is an injury in either corner, he could fill in. He would be a good platoon candidate though the Twins certainly aren’t going to put Sano into a platoon.

    Michael Tonkin

    After being drafted by the Twins in the 30th round of the 2008 draft, Tonkin signed and began his career as a starter. After spending half of the 2010 season starting for Beloit, he returned for a full season with the Snappers, pitching primarily out of the bullpen. That is where he returned in 2012, and that’s when things started to click. That year, between Beloit and Ft. Myers, he struck out 97 and walked just 20 in 69.1 innings. He was added to the 40-man roster following that season.

    In 2013, he pitched between New Britain and Rochester and made his big league debut in July. Since then, he has been back and forth between Rochester and the Twins. While he has dominated International League hitters, he has yet to find any consistent success with the Twins. In 102 games for Rochester, he has a 2.65 ERA and nearly ten strikeouts per nine innings. Part of the issue is that he hasn’t spent any real consistent, extended time with the Twins. While the 6-7, 26-year-old throws pretty hard, he has been inconsistent with his slider.

    Glen Perkins, Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen are lined up in the back end of the bullpen (or course May could theoretically still be used as a starter). Casey Fien looks to rebound. Fernando Abad is one of four left-handed relievers brought in on minor league contracts. Guys like Ryan Pressly and JR Graham will be competing for a spot in the big leagues. And, we all know the names of the hard-throwing relievers that could arrive by midseason. Tonkin isn’t guaranteed a spot, and yet, with his size and the velocity he has on his pitches, if he can gain some semblance of control of his slider, he could start the season pitching in the 5th and 6th inning and be relied upon later in games as the season moves along.

    ---------------------------------------------------------

    Being out of options is an interesting place to be for a player. It’s clear that the organization has seen enough to keep you on the roster through three optional seasons. Yet, the player is now in a position where he has to come to spring training ready to make the club.

    A couple of years ago, Chris Parmelee and Alex Presley were out of options and the team chose to put them through the waiver process at the end of spring training. Four years ago, Trevor Plouffe went to spring training out of options. He began the season as a bench player and less than two months later Danny Valencia was optioned and Plouffe became a starter.

    It can be scary, but it is a career crossroads that so many experience. As Ryan said, all three of these Twins players can win a spot in spring training. I would venture to say it is likely that all three will make the Opening Day roster unless spring training goes just brutally for them. But they can’t think that anything will be handed to them because even if they are removed from the 40-man roster, 29 other teams can watch them as well.

    So, what do you think? Will all three be on the Opening Day roster?

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

    Recent Twins Articles

    Recent Twins Videos

    Twins Top Prospects

    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

     

    What are you talking about? Why does someone have to predict the future to justify the use of BABIP?

     

    Also, I don't understand why using OPS to make a projection is fair game but BABIP isn't.

    You're justifying the use of BABIP because it worked last year.  I'm simply asking what's going to happen this year with the low hanging fruit already having been used.  Are those crickets I'm hearing?

     

    But not all equal AVG and OPS figures are created equal. With fewer strikeouts and a lower BABIP, it would have been possible for Santana to have the exact same AVG and OPS in the exact same number of plate appearances in 2014. But that would have been evidence of a real change in skill (reduced strikeouts) rather than luck (abnormally high average on balls in play) and would have projected better going forward. So there is value in digging deeper beyond just AVG and OPS, and I see no problem with including BABIP in that deeper analysis. Heck, you yourself referenced OPS in your evaluation of Santana, another stat introduced by "stat geeks" 30 some years ago. :)

    So you're not going to bite on the predictions for this year either.  Hell, you didn't even copy that part of my post.  Low hanging fruit has been used and now---nothing.

     

    You're justifying the use of BABIP because it worked last year. 

    No, we're justifying the consideration of BABIP (along with other stats, of course) because of mountains of research like this:

     

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/1/2393318/what-hitting-metrics-are-consistent-year-to-year

     

    So you're not going to bite on the predictions for this year either.  Hell, you didn't even copy that part of my post.  Low hanging fruit has been used and now---nothing.

    You're asking me to prove the usefulness of BABIP by making a personal prediction for Danny Santana's 2016 stat line.

     

    If I said that early childhood education was a leading indicator of future academic success, would you respond, "Prove it, hotshot -- what's my nephew Danny's GPA going to be next year?"

     

    it's absurd.




    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...