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    On Lack of Pitching Youth, Eddie Rosario's Progress and Other Notes


    Tom Froemming

    There has been a reshuffling of the Twins roster, but the pitching staff still isn’t getting any younger. Per Baseball-Reference, the Twins have trotted out the fourth-oldest pitching staff in baseball with a weighted average age of 30.2.

    The 2016 Twins pitching staff had an average age right at league average, which was 28.3. So after 103 losses, they got older and are continuing to do so. Justin Haley is the youngest pitcher on the active roster, he turns 26 in a little over a month. Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey are the only other Twins hurlers currently on the 25-man roster who were born in the 1990s.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Rockies, who have the second-best record in the NL, have the youngest pitching staff in baseball. They have three pitchers younger than Haley ... in their rotation.

    Among the numerous roster moves made the past few weeks included the additions of Nick Tepesch (28) and Drew Rucinski (28) to the roster. Wednesday evening, the team optioned Rucinski back to Triple A to make room for 29-year-old Adam Wilk.

    As the 250-plus comments (and counting) on Seth’s writeup of the Wilk addition suggest, it was a bit of a controversial and puzzling move. It sounds like Wilk is likely to pitch out of the pen, alleviating some of the Jose Berrios outrage, but having a 29-year-old with little or no upside in the bullpen doesn’t make much sense either, especially considering the other options.

    ***UPDATE***

    Berrios is starting Saturday, woooooooooo!!!

    https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/862878473660116992

    Obviously, the 22-year-old Berrios and 23-year-old Adalbert Mejia would represent a youth movement in the rotation, but there are a number of bullpen guys the Twins have pitching well in the minors who are already in their mid-20s.

    Relievers Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Alan Busenitz and Luke Bard are all 26-years-old. Mason Melotakis is 25 and both John Curtiss and Nick Burdi are 24. I’m not saying all seven of those guys are ready for The Show, but I gotta believe at least one of them deserves a look in a low-leverage role over a guy like Wilk.

    But hey, what do I know? The Twins entered the evening with a 16-14 record, which is pretty remarkable. As I noted a while back, the last 24 teams who lost 100 averaged another 95 losses the next year. Only two of those teams bounced back with a winning record. And there doesn’t seem to be any fan apathy either, as the paid attendance eclipsed 90,000 for last weekend’s series against the Red Sox.

    I guess some people (me) will always have an ax to grind.

    Rosario Off to a Rosie Start

    On the flip side, the Twins have the second-youngest hitters by average age this season at 27.1. One of the young hitters who doesn't seem to be getting much attention is Eddie Rosario. The 25-year-old entered this year with a strikeout rate of 25.2 percent, but he has managed to cut that to 17.7 so far this year.

    RosarioGraph.png

    Rosario is still swinging at as many balls as ever, he's just hitting them more often. His contact rate on balls out of the zone is up from 65.5 percent in 2016 to 70.6 so far this season.

    RosarioOContact.png

    Rosario also leads all of baseball in making medium contact, with a rate of 62.9 percent. While that's not a particularly great accomplishment, it does correlate to a nice drop in his frequency of making bad contact. His soft contact rate is 11.2 percent, which puts him is inside the top 20 among 184 qualified hitters.

    RosarioSoftContact.png

    Rosario is also among the top 20 percent of hitters in hitting the ball the other way. His rate of going to the opposite field has increased from 24.1 percent in 2016 to 29.2 this year.

    RosarioOppo.png

    ADDITIONAL NOTES

    -I typically like to include some notes about the expected pitching matchups over the weekend, but the Twins have yet to officially announce who will be starting Saturday or Sunday. But we do know the bats will dodge a bullet in Cleveland, facing Josh Tomlin, Mike Clevinger and Trevor Bauer. No disrespect to those guys, but it’s nice to miss Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.

    -The Twins staff is still dead last in swinging-strike rate at 8.2%. They also have the third-worst K/9 (6.98) and K% (17.9). They've also allowed highest contact percent at 82.5, which is two points higher than the next team.

    -Miguel Sano has the lowest soft contact rate at 1.7 percent. That's 5.5 percent better than any other qualified hitter.

    -Only the Reds have a higher rating in Defensive Runs Above Average than the Twins. The Twins lead the league in outfield arm runs. Yes, that is a real stat (ARM on Fangraphs). But curiously, the Twins have been the second-worst team at GIDP rate. This is calculated by dividing double plays turned by the number of PAs against with a runner on first and less than two outs.

    -Daniel Palka (.240/.301/.423) has cooled off some after a hot start, but he has been doing a great job in cutting down on the Ks. After striking out in 38.6 percent of his at-bats for Rochester in 2016, he’s cut that rate to 23.9 so far this season.

    -LaMonte Wade (.937) and Nick Gordon (.880) both rank in the top 10 in OPS among Southern League hitters.

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    I've always been a bit of a fanboy of Rosario.  He provides a really tantalizing blend of defense, speed, and power.  It's awesome to see him putting it together this year.

     

    Why would that be odd? Most people don't know what the future holds for a team, .....

    I agree that most casual fans don't know what the future holds.

    I mean, we don't even know what the future holds, and look how brilliant we are!

     

    I think Hildenberger is a guy that can help at the MLB level as well.  Minor league numbers better than Neshek's?  As Ob-Wan Kenobi said, "what you say is true, from a certain point of view".  Some are, some are not.

     

    First, Hildenberger is already a year older than Neshek was when he made his MLB debut.  And Neshek stuck.  He didn't ride the shuttle back and forth to Rochester once he made it up.

     

    In 2006 in AAA, Neshek was used as an "old school" closer.  By that I mean he often came into the game in the 8th and a couple times in the 7th, and finished the game - you're going to have to take my word for it, BR doesn't have minor league game logs prior to 2008.  But Neshek made 33 appearances in the first half of 2006 (finished 23 of them), and pitched 60 innings.  Hildenberger is being used primarily 1 IP at a time.  There's nothing wrong with that approach except that I think part of the reason why Neshek was used that way was to accelerate his development.  He essentially got a full season's worth of innings at AAA in half a season.  Of course, Neshek was more of true sidearmer.  I've never seen Hildenberger pitch, but from what I have heard he does sometimes use a "conventional" delivery.  

     

    Which brings me to my second point.  Neshek obliterated AAA.  6 hits per 9, 13 K per 9.  Through 10 innings, Hildenberger has allowed 8.4 hits per 9 and "only" 10 K per 9.  Obviously far fewer IP than Neshek at the AAA level, so who is to say where his numbers will go.

     

    But that brings me to my third point.  As I said, Neshek had 60 IP at AAA before getting called up.  If that is the standard the Twins use with Hildenberger, he won't be up before September.  Frankly that would be true of any of the other guys (Burdi, Melotakis, et al) as well.  I don't know that 60 IP at AAA will be the standard used by Falvey.  I suspect it will not if the Twins fall out of contention.  But if the Twins do stay in contention with the bullpen they have, Falvey would be quite justified in saying "Why change it?"

     

    I don't really disagree with any of this, just will point out what I see:

     

    1. Hildenberger does throw one of his pitches overhand, not sure which but would guess his 4-seamer. Everything else is side-winder (not quite submariner). You can catch the differences in these videos:

     

     

     

    2. Neshek was younger for the levels but these were the #'s:

     

    Midwest League:

    -Neshek (22) - 28 Games, 0.52 ERA, 34.1 IP, 20 H's, 11 BB, 53 K's

    -Hildenberger (24) - 28 games, 0.80 ERA, 45 IP, 24 H's, 5 BB, 59 K's

     

    Fort Myers:

    -Neshek (22, 23) - 36 games, 2.45 ERA, 47.2 IP, 36 H's, 8 BB, 48 K's

    -Hildenberger (24, 25) - 19 games, 2.54 ERA, 28.1 IP, 26 H's, 2 BB, 29 K's

     

    AA:

    -Neshek (22, 23, 24) - 86 games, 2.87 ERA, 125.1 IP, 110 H's, 42 BB, 138 K's

    -Hildenberger (25) - 32 games, 0.70 ERA, 38.2 IP, 21 H's, 6 BB, 45 K's.

     

    AAA:

    -Neshek (25) - 33 games, 1.95 ERA, 60 IP, 41 H's, 14 BB's, 87 K's

    -Hildenberger (26) - 9 games, 2.53 ERA, 10.2 IP, 10 H's, 3 BB's, 12 K's

     

    There's really not the differences you point out until AAA, and Hildenberger has just 9 IP as you mention. Both were drafted out of college, so you can look at it as Neshek debuted in his 5th year in the system, which was also was his first year at AAA. This is Hildenberger's 4th year in the system, and he is in AAA.

     

    As an addendum, it's important to realize this:

     

    The Twins have given 30 starts to Santana, Hughes, Santiago, Mejia, and Gibson. That's pretty reasonable given the roster going into the season. Now Berrios will be added to that group tomorrow.

     

    The Twins have given one start to Nick Tepesch. One.

     

    Maybe Gibson should have gotten the axe a start or two earlier but when you really examine this rotation, the front office hasn't been handing away starts to junk pitchers off the waiver wire.

    Your point is really a great point. I had not really thought of this. This is a huge deviation from the past 4-5 years.




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