If He's Fired, Rocco Baldelli Will Only Be Minnesota Twins' “Fall Guy”

Before we begin Rocco Baldelli’s defense portion of this trial, let's play the side of the prosecution. Like all managers—nay, people—Baldelli is not perfect. Does he lean too much into matchups at times, in lieu of letting his best batters hit? Yep. Is he guilty of not giving his starting pitchers a longer leash? Sometimes. Has he been a player’s manager, almost to a fault? Has his message fallen on deaf ears within the clubhouse? You could make those arguments.

A friend of mine said this a few years back, and I think it rings true, to a certain extent: Baldelli doesn't seem overly compelled to win any single game; he's always managing with the bigger picture in mind. Is that a problem? Not glaringly so, but maybe a little bit. However, will any of this change if he's relieved of his duties and someone else (whether it be internally or externally) takes over? I don't think so. The Twins' skipper (and the front office, to an extent) has been the victim of cheap ownership and a fan base that has misguided much of their anger in his direction.

Baldelli took over as manager for an organization that had played in just one postseason game in eight seasons. You won't hear the people who want him fired give him credit for leading a record-breaking “Bomba Squad” or winning over 100 games in his first season. You won't hear those same people give him credit for managing through a COVID-shortened season that saw the Twins win their second consecutive American League Central title. After all, it's the players who make the plays and win the games, right?

Why, then, are they so quick to point the finger toward the dugout when the players are the ones underachieving? In addition to being strapped for cash, Baldelli has had to manage through continuous injuries and underperformance from the highest-paid players on the team. Byron Buxton’s and Carlos Correa’s injuries and performance have been a hot topic each year. This year, the two have combined for a .639 OPS, with four home runs and a 36:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 152 plate appearances. While both players have experienced success under Baldelli, it only comes in spurts and has been overshadowed by injuries. Is that his fault? Even their highest-paid pitcher, Pablo López, left the team wanting more in an up-and-down 2024 season. Down his best players (or getting underwhelming production from them), Baldelli has often been forced to rely on unproven talent or veterans looking for another chance.

Offensively, I've sorted a list of all players who have gotten more than 150 plate appearances in a season ascending by fWAR. The list includes guys like Jose Miranda (-0.7 fWAR in 2023), Jake Cave (-0.6 in 2021), Willians Astudillo (-0.5 in 2021), and seven others who played often, despite being worse than replacement-level. In many of those cases, Baldelli didn't have a choice but to rely on guys who weren't producing. Instead of prioritizing depth behind their oft-injured stars, the Twins have given Baldelli the likes of Gilberto Celestino (0.4 in 2022) and Austin Martin (-0.2 in 2024) to cover for Buxton, and a bevy of players who don't call shortstop home to cover for Correa.

Celestino has not received a major-league at-bat since he left the Twins organization. That doesn't even cover failed signings like Andrelton Simmons (somehow accrued 0.9 fWAR in 2021) and Joey Gallo (again, somehow 0.8 fWAR in 2023), who both got limited opportunities following their departures and found themselves out of baseball just a season after getting significant playing time with the Twins. While the front office can point their fingers at the Pohlads, they haven't maximized their return on the limited funds they've been allotted. This is especially true when we shift to pitchers.

Through Baldelli’s fourth season (2022), he was forced to start the group above 245 times (38% of games). Moreover, there are plenty of names who received multiple starts that would make for good answers on an Immaculate Grid board. While the idea that he never lets his starters go is somewhat specious (12th in SP innings since 2019), would you want to push those guys to give you more innings than they were already asked to? Fortunately for Baldelli, he's been the beneficiary of the Twins' phenomenal pitching development recently, which wasn't as highly thought of in the first half of his tenure with the team. Then we shift to the bullpen, and the many failed signings and trades throughout the Baldelli era. The worst names on that list include Sam Dyson, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, Joe Smith, Michael Fulmer, and Jorge López. Not a single one of those players have been consistently productive since joining other organizations, and more than one of them threw their last professional pitch with the Twins. We're going to blame Baldelli for that? Or more recently, is it on Baldelli that Griffin Jax has an 11.25 ERA right now?

To be fair to the front office, they have hit on some moves, as well. Acquiring Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and López for the top of the rotation have been wins. Nelson Cruz, Gio Urshela, Carlos Correa, Michael A. Taylor and Carlos Santana (maybe a couple others) have yielded positive returns. That said, they've had far more whiffs and foul tips than hits while Baldelli has been at the helm. Generally speaking, I don't think a manager has a determinative impact on player performance, one way or another. I didn't give Baldelli credit for 2019, and I'm not going to blame him for the Twins' last 60 games.

Don't get me wrong, Baldelli has his warts, and, as they say, “you can't fire the players”. However, if (seems more like "when") he gets fired, he’ll just be the “fall guy”. Until the Twins get new ownership, front office personnel will continue to be hamstrung—and the manager, whether it be Baldelli or someone else, will continue to be left with mediocre or worse teams. Simply put, Rocco Baldelli is not the reason for the Twins' total system failure. He's never been the total system.