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    Frustrating Start To Huge Road Trip


    Seth Stohs

    On Monday night in New York, the Minnesota Twins found another frustrating way to lose to the Yankees. It’s something Twins fans should be used to, but it brings out strong feelings every time. With a tough road trip underway, starting with a tough loss is not what anyone wanted.

    The Twins find themselves in a battle for two wild card spots. This road trip may go a long ways in determining whether the Twins are contender or pretender.

    Image courtesy of Adam Hunger, USA Today

    Twins Video

    Here is a quick look at how the standings look heading into Tuesday’s games:

    ccs-19-0-27466200-1439876788.png

    The New York Yankees lead the Blue Jays in the AL East, but many still believe that Toronto could win that division. If that is the case, the Twins are 5.5 games behind the Bronx Bombers. That’s what makes Monday night’s loss so frustrating. It was a winnable game. The Twins scored plenty of runs and they matched the powerful offense of the Yankees.

    Eduardo Nunez, in this Mike Berardino tout video, shouldered the loss. He said “It’s all on my back. I think I lost the game.”

    Sure, he had the final play in the game, but there was plenty of blame to go around.

    • Kyle Gibson gave up a three-run homer to Brian McCann on an 0-2 pitch in the first. When the Twins fought back and took the lead, Gibson was unable to slow the Yankees offense. He gave up six runs in five innings.
    • Ryan O’Rourke, who has been very good against left-handed batters, gave up singles to the two left-handed hitters he faced (admittedly a bloop single and a liner past a drawn-in Trevor Plouffe at third base).
    • Brian Duensing got the left-hander he was asked to face on a strikeout, but then gave up a game-tying homer to Carlos Beltran.
    • The manager, Paul Molitor, kept giving up outs by sending base stealers. They were successful just twice in five attempts on the night.
    • One could question the decision to challenge the Eddie Rosario catch, leaving Alex Rodriguez on first base, rather than Mark Teixeira, or
    • The decision to not hold A-Rod on first, allowing him to steal second and score right after that. There was plenty of blame.

    ROUGH ROAD AHEAD

    The Twins have two more games in New York, where they actually have played well in recent years. Then they play four games in Baltimore against an Orioles team that currently holds the second wild card spot. After a day off next Monday, the Twins will play three games in Tampa against the Rays.

    Then they return home and play the AL West-leading Houston Astros in a three-game series. After a series at Target Field against the White Sox, the Twins travel to Houston for three more games. After that series, a trip to Kaufman Stadium for three games against the Kansas City Royals. The Royals, of course, hold a 12.5 game over the Twins in the AL Central.

    The Twins have played really well at Target Field yet have completely struggled on the road. Their next nine games are away from Target Field. 18 of their next 24 games are on the road.

    If they can remain in contention that long, their final 19 games include three against the White Sox, six against the Tigers and six against Cleveland. The only team they play that is currently in a possible playoff position is the Angels, though they have four games at Target Field against them.

    Considering where the Twins were at the All-Star break (11 games over .500), the second half has been quite frustrating. Considering where the Twins were after one week of the season, we should be thrilled that the Twins are in the position that they are with 44 games to play.

    Even more important, players like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks and Byron Buxton are going to be getting big league at-bats in important situations. It can only help them in the long run. Pitchers like Tyler Duffey, Trevor May and Ryan O’Rourke are getting to pitch in big situations in big ball games.

    In the last month, many of the veterans have struggled while the young players are doing as much or more than could rightfully be expected. The veterans (hitters, starters and relievers) will need to step up if the team is to remain in contention.

    The Twins had a frustrating loss in the first of their ten-game road trip against some key competitors in a playoff race. However, they still sit at 59-59 with 44 more games to play. We asked for meaningful games in August and for the first time in five years, we have them.

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    Featured Comments

    I see a picture of the elephant in the room, but unfortunately not a mention...

     

    What looks, smells and pitches like an elephant?

     

    Perkins' second half numbers: 8.10 ERA 7.80 FIP 2.100 WHIP and here is the kicker:

     

    .383/.420/.702 Opponent slash line  (yes, that .702 is SLG and not OPS...)

     

    These not only make Matt Capps seem like a Cy Young candidate, but are worse than Tim Stauffer's.  And we all know where we wanted Tim Stauffer to go.   Time for Molitor to find a guy who can close the door, because Perkins cannot really do it any more for some reason and Terry Ryan declined to address the situation and get an effective closer by the deadline.

     

    This team is competing, and better be managed as such.

     

    I'm also not sure Buxton helps this team. His peripherals in AAA aren't exactly eye popping.

     

    Scorching hot taek.

     

    This is one of the problems some people demonstrate when it comes to sabermetrics: the analytically minded aren't always so analytical.

     

    It's pretty shocking that someone would value Buxton's AAA peripherals over his actual performance. He's absolutely crushing the ball right now, which of course leads to inflated BABIP and reduced walk rates.

     

    Yeah, his ISO isn't incredibly high (which isn't to say that it's low), but that's because his batting average is incredibly high. He's slugging .549 for Rochester, which is pretty stinking good. He's also OPSing .993, and his wRC+ is sitting at an irrefutably robust 193. Of course, this is all in an extremely limited sample size, so much of it is noise (although his performance has so far lined up with his track record).

     

    It's silly to look at just one or two stats, even if they're "advanced," and claim they describe the whole picture. I really don't get how anyone could look at Buxton's AAA line and assume that somehow he isn't hitting sufficiently well. Sometimes, when trying to figure out what's "really" going on, we can get too bogged down in shoddy analysis and miss out on what is happening right before our eyes.

     

    It's silly to look at just one or two stats, even if they're "advanced," and claim they describe the whole picture. I really don't get how anyone could look at Buxton's AAA line and assume that somehow he isn't hitting sufficiently well. Sometimes, when trying to figure out what's "really" going on, we can get too bogged down in shoddy analysis and miss out on what is happening right before our eyes.

    Are you watching his PAs? Seeing what quality of hits he's getting? I'm not. That's why I look at bb, k, ISO, ISOd because that's the best I can do here in MN. Its possible his .500  BABIP is the product of scorching liners, but not likely. If he were squaring up balls so regularly, he'd probably have more than a handful of XBHs esp. with Buxton's speed.

     

    Are you watching his PAs? Seeing what quality of hits he's getting? I'm not. That's why I look at bb, k, ISO, ISOd because that's the best I can do here in MN. Its possible his .500  BABIP is the product of scorching liners, but not likely. If he were squaring up balls so regularly, he'd probably have more than a handful of XBHs esp. with Buxton's speed.

     

    No, I haven't watched any at bat that isn't available on the nightly highlights posted to Rochester's website. The stats simply don't support the idea that he's hitting a bunch of doinkers and beating them out on foot. For one thing, he's slugging .549 (before tonight's double). That's borderline elite. His wRC+, which is a weighted measurement of a player's runs produced per at bat adjusted for the league and ballparks that person plays in, is sitting at 193. League average is 100. This means Buxton has been almost 100% better than the average AAA hitter in his first 12 games there. There's nothing to suggest that he isn't murdering the baseball right now. For the record, it's discussions like these that made me wish we had batted ball data available for MiLB. That would clarify a lot.




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