Did Colt Keith Deal, Jorge Polanco Trade Pave the Way for a Pre-Debut Brooks Lee Deal?

Tigers infield prospect Colt Keith capped off a good week on Sunday by signing an extension with the team that keeps him under team control through the 2032 season. The extension is officially a six-year deal worth $28.6 million, with club options for $10 million, $13 million, and $15 million in the following seasons. Earlier in the week, Keith appeared as the No. 22 overall prospect on MLB Pipeline’s newest prospect ranking list.

Also featured on MLB Pipeline’s list was Twins infield prospect Brooks Lee. Lee clocked in on the list at No. 18, just ahead of Keith. Lee is a similar case study, in more ways than one. Both prospects are 22 years old and likely to play second or third base in the major leagues. Both players’ bats are their best tool, and both are relatively similarly ranked on many prospect lists, as they are on MLB Pipeline’s. With similarities in the player profiles, could the Twins pursue a similar extension?

Extending a prospect is an excellent way to get a discount on a good player by paying more for him right now. In the case of Keith, the Tigers will be paying him a higher salary over the next few years than they would have had they let him play on his rookie contract. Still, assuming he performs the way the team hopes, they will be paying him less in the later years than they would have if they had waited to extend him later in his career. It’s a relatively low-risk move that guarantees you control that player, in this case, for the next nine seasons.

The main difference between Keith and Lee is Keith is likely to be Detroit’s Opening Day second baseman in 2024. He fills a direct need for the team and has a spot for the foreseeable future. Lee has a more complicated path to playing time. Just this weekend, GM Thad Levine said he was likely to open the season in Triple A, with the St. Paul Saints.

The Twins plan for infielder Brooks Lee — No. 18 overall prospect, per @MLBPipeline — to begin 2024 at Triple-A, GM Thad Levine told @MLBNetworkRadio today.

Levine continued: “When he tells us he’s ready to go, we’re going to get him up to the big leagues.” @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 28, 2024

There are questions about whether Lee can play shortstop, which Carlos Correa occupies anyway, so it wouldn’t matter if he were adequately equipped for the position; there isn't a path to playing time at shortstop on the MLB roster. The way Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien performed last season, one would assume second and third base are also spoken for, and just like that, the path to playing time narrows.

On the other hand, we knew that logjam would have to start breaking up at some point, and on Monday night, it did. With Jorge Polanco traded, the extra infielder penciled into the roster for Opening Day (Kyle Farmer) is of lower quality, has less gravitas within the organization, and doesn't do some of the things Lee could do for the team as soon as this spring.

The Twins could move Lee or Julien to first base to get both guys on the field. Still, with the defensive improvements Julien made throughout the year, the Twins may be reluctant to move him off his position, and it's hard to bank on extending a player and then trying to teach him a brand-new position. Even if they did consider such a move, a healthy Alex Kirilloff and José Miranda will also be battling for at-bats at first base. Mix in the potential arrival of prospects like Yunior Severino and Austin Martin, and you can see why the Twins might be hesitant to make a long-term commitment to Lee, especially when the team has needs and Lee is a great trade token.

The path to a facsimile of the Keith deal opens up if the Twins decide that Lee is, in fact, the second baseman of the future. Moving Polanco is the first and simplest step along that path, but it's a step, nonetheless. To advance further, they'd need to move either Julien or Kirilloff, as well. By committing to Lee, the team guarantees him a spot on the major-league roster and an everyday role. Why would they start his controllable clock and pay extra money to him if they wanted to keep him in the minors? By extending Lee, the team would need to cut down the logjam in other ways.

There's an incentive for Lee to work for an extension as well, as it guarantees that he won't be traded and will have a role with the team for the future. It shows the team's real and abiding faith in him, and puts a price tag on it. If the Twins think Lee is the best available option, Lee will almost certainly be willing to work with the team to get an extension done. He would be rewarded with a fast track and financial security for the following number of seasons. The catch, of course, is that Lee was the 8th overall pick in 2022, whereas Keith was taken out of high school in 2020, in the fourth round of a truncated draft. Lee got more than 10 times as much than Keith did to sign at the front door of professional baseball, so the Twins wouldn't enjoy as much leverage as the Tigers did in dealing with their young infielder.

With the pros and cons of a potential extension laid out, the question remains: should the Twins pursue an extension? The answer is unsatisfying: Maybe. If the Twins have a plan that guarantees Lee an everyday role, and the team doesn't believe they can package him for a starter they deem worthy of losing him for, then they should absolutely extend Lee. He’s likely to be a solid everyday player, and if the team can lock that up for the long haul for a relatively cheap price (as the Tigers did with Keith), then they should. However, if they have questions about where the puzzle pieces will fall in, they must seriously consider finding a trade partner.

What are your thoughts on offering Brooks Lee an extension similar to Colt Keith's? Should the team pursue a trade instead? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!