What Could a Corbin Burnes Trade Look Like?

The 2022-23 offseason saw the Minnesota Twins make one of the most polarizing trades in franchise history, when they dealt reigning batting champion Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins to bolster their rotation by adding Pablo Lopez. Arráez and López each went on to have great success for their new teams in 2023, leading each to the playoffs. This style of immediate win/win trade is uncommon in MLB, but could the Twins and Brewers pull off a similar swap to improve both major-league rosters?

The Trade
Brewers Receive: INF Jorge Polanco, RHP David Festa, LHP Connor Prielipp
Twins Receive: RHP Corbin Burnes

Why It Makes Sense for the Brewers
Burnes is in his last year of team control, and will likely leave via free agency after this coming season. He will require a massive contract that would be out of character for the Brewers to pony up and pay. This is the reason for the trade rumors, in the first place. In multiple appearances online this winter, Burnes has been forthright about his intention to become a free agent and his disinterest in almost any deal that would head off that eventuality.

"Every guy who gets this close to free agency wants to test the market"

Corbin Burnes says he would have to be blown away by an extension to avoid free agency if he were traded.

▶️ https://t.co/A1LN2Bqv4J pic.twitter.com/WkXcMVLBi9

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) December 19, 2023

Burnes is a stud, but the Brewers could fill his spot with Aaron Ashby and potentially Robert Gasser, who came to the team in the Josh Hader trade. Freddy Peralta has ace-level stuff and could replace Burnes as the team’s Opening Day and Game 1 playoff starter.

Where the Brewers lack is in the infield. Their potential Opening Day options for second and third base are Brice Turang, who produced a .585 OPS; Andruw Monasterio, who posted a .678; and Owen Miller, who had a .674 in 2023. Two of those three are likely to be everyday starters for a returning playoff team. By adding Polanco, the Brewers would add an impact bat to the middle of their lineup. In 80 games in 2023, Polanco hit 14 home runs and had a .789 OPS.

To add to his value, Polanco is a switch-hitter who hits well enough from both sides of the plate to avoid any need for a platoon. On top of that, he is under team control on a team-friendly contract ($10 million in 2024, with a club option at $12 million in 2025) for the next two seasons. Polanco has been a consistent hitter since arriving with the Twins in 2016, and has never produced below a .723 OPS in any non-shortened season.

On top of adding Polanco, the Brewers would receive two top-10 organizational prospects from the Twins, who both happen to be pitchers. Festa is a 6-foot-6 righthander, close to making his major-league debut. Since being drafted out of Seton Hall in 2021, he has seen his fastball tick up several miles per hour; it now touches 98-99. Finishing 2023 in Triple A, Festa could be an option to replace Burnes in the Brewers rotation, at least by the end of the season.

This deal would also send Connor Prielipp to the Brewers. At one point in his college career, it looked like Prielipp would be a surefire top-10 pick in the draft. However, that never came to fruition, as he went on to miss his entire sophomore season at Alabama following Tommy John surgery. The Twins scooped the lefty in the second round of the 2022 draft with hopes his injuries were behind him, and that after a rehab year in 2022, he could display his top-of-the-line stuff in 2023. Unfortunately, Prielipp threw just 6 2/3 innings before injuring his arm and needing another UCL surgery.

Injuries aside, there’s a lot to like about Prielipp, most notably his double-plus slider that some scouts classified as the best pitch in his draft class. He’s a left-handed 22-year-old with as much upside as anyone in the Twins organization. If Prielipp can return from injury and stay healthy, he’s the type of lottery-ticket prospect who could become a future star.

Why It Makes Sense for the Twins
The Twins are in a good spot with their infield depth. With Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, and Edouard Julien returning as reliable infield options and Yunior Severino, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin set to make their debuts in 2024, the Twins have the depth to offset the loss of trading Polanco.

The lineup, bullpen, and most of the starting rotation appear good and deep enough to make another playoff run. The only glaring downgrade from last season to 2024 is at the top of the rotation, due to the loss of Sonny Gray. Burnes is more than capable of filling that hole.

The former Cy Young winner has been lights-out since his breakout 2020 season, being selected to the All-Star Game in the past three seasons and receiving Cy Young votes in the last four. He won the award in 2021. He’s been impressively durable (167, 202, 193 2/3 innings, respectively, in the last three seasons), and his Baseball Savant metrics are top-notch.

While he’s in the last year of team control, Burnes would immediately step in and give the Twins one of the best one-two starting pitching punches in the entire league. The Twins could work on extending Burnes, as they did with López, or thank him for his service at the end of the season and look to replace him for 2025, pocketing yet another compensatory draft pick after extending him the qualifying offer. Losing Festa and Prielipp would hurt, but adding Burnes for an entire season could lift the Twins to contender status. Is that enough to offset losing two of their most coveted pitching prospects?

What do you think? Twins fans? Brewers fans? Would you consider this deal? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!