Christian Vázquez Isn’t Producing, but He’s Not Going Anywhere

13 hours ago, RpR said:

 

 

While Bill James was an early proponent of Catcher ERA (CERA) as a way to measure a catcher's impact on a pitching staff

, it's generally not widely used or considered a reliable metric in modern sabermetrics. 

 

Here's why:

• Reliability Issues: CERA has been shown to have significant year-to-year variation, making it difficult to assess a catcher's consistent ability using this stat alone. Research suggests that observed differences in CERA can be largely due to chance.
• Too Many Variables: CERA doesn't adequately control for external factors that influence ERA, such as:
  • The quality of the opposing team's offense
  • The quality of the individual pitchers being caught
  • Home or away game influence
  • Weather conditions
  • Pure luck
• Focus on Pitch Framing: Modern sabermetrics has shifted towards analyzing specific catcher defensive skills like pitch framing, which is the ability to subtly receive pitches in a way that makes them appear as strikes. Metrics like Called Strikes Above Average (CSAA) and Framing Runs Above Average (FRAA) are now used to quantify this skill. 

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You're missing the context here. League wide. That's the context. You can't compare CERA from players on the Tigers vs the Mariners vs the Phillies vs the Dodgers vs the Mets vs the Cubs vs the Twins. That's why CERA isn't used. And it shouldn't be. 

Nobody here is doing that. But the Twins split and alternate their catchers. There's still some imbalance in things, but there's imbalance in every stat. Not every hitter faces the same pitchers in the same conditions. Should we get rid of batting average? This is a different situation and the type of situation where comparison makes sense. 

If you can't use runs allowed to discuss catcher defense for catchers on the same team catching the same pitchers the same amount, what is the point of catcher defense? What is Vazquez doing that's making up for his complete lack of help scoring runs if it isn't helping prevent runs? The Twins provide the near perfect situation to actually use CERA. The very real reasons not to use it league wide don't apply here. Can't hide behind that when it comes to Vazquez vs Jeffers. Vazquez has unquestionably been a worse overall catcher than Jeffers. Since the day Vazquez arrived, the Twins have scored fewer and allowed more runs when he plays. Please feel free to explain how that makes him the better catcher.

Oh, and, do you believe in pitch framing now? Or is that only when you're trying to use AI to explain away the fact that Vazquez doesn't actually reduce the runs allowed by the Twins with his great defense?

34 minutes ago, RpR said:

Pitch framing is also bogus, but the writer, needed some thing to help trash CERA.

Don't need "bogus" reasons to trash CERA. It's super logical why you can't compare catcher ERAs across teams. Not complicated.

You didn't want to take a shot at explaining why the obviously superior defensive catcher who has had nearly exactly evenly split time behind the plate, including with the best pitchers, has been behind the plate while the Twins give up consistently more runs for 2+ years? You're so confident he's the clearly better catcher but don't want to explain why that'd be?

Be careful before posting a screenshot of defensive stats here. Make sure they aren't using a "bogus" stat like pitch framing. That'd put you in a weird spot. (Hint: you've already used those stats multiple times on these boards which is really weird since you don't believe in what they're based on)