Beating Vegas: The Kansas City Royals

Oy...another really good number. If I were putting a range, I'd have them 85-88, so I guess I'm going over just because more of my range is over, but I really like that over/under number. One thing I do think folks are sleeping on is those who are ripping on Ian Kennedy and predicting a 5 ERA and 1.50 WHIP for the guy. How'd that work out for the same people predicting demise for Edinson Volquez last year?

Over.  I think they can win over 90 games this year.

Well. I had them at about 79 last year and they won the World Series. So I am taking over this year.

Under. While their run differential suggests their record was deserved, underlying peripherals suggest it wasn't, and the run differential was produced by lucky bunching of hits both offensively and defensively. That's what they say over at fivethirtyeight anyway, and those guys are never wrong. They do acknowledge that when a team consistently outproduces its peripherals, it probably means something. But another reason for holding back on the Royals is their recent success has been built on incredible health. That could be a genuine team trait -- they are a young and athletic group -- but nobody avoids injuries forever.

But the main reason I'm going with the under is the AL Central has gotten really good. There's not a patsy from top to bottom. There won't be many easy days for anyone in this division. The Twins are the best they've been in years and they could be the weakest team in the division--but they're gonna be tough. They don't have a glaring weakness anywhere in the rotation or the lineup -- and if someone does flop, they are as well positioned to plug holes and keep on rolling as any team in the league. Sure, Nolasco had a rough two years but he was hurt--he's no Kevin Correia or Livan Hernandez. But if he sucks, so what? Duffey and Berrios may be their two best pitchers, and they're not even on the team yet. Their bullpen might not scare people but they have two or three years of power-arm draftees lined up for a crack at the majors. Their AAA team could probably outpitch their starting rotation four years ago.

If the Royals want to take two of three from the Twins they'll have to earn it. And then they'll have to move on to the Indians' league-best rotation, the thunderous bats of Detroit, and the restocked White Sox. Ninety wins could win this division. But whoever wins it's going to be a dogfight.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Royals won the division, or even the World Series again. Which would be fine with me. I love seeing fellow mid-market teams succeed, and I love seeing any AL Central team crush the other division champs. Except the White Sox, of course.

I agree it will be a balanced division but the only team I have a really hard time seeing in contention is Detriot. They were 15th in runs. They add Upton but lose 102 games from Cespedes. Simply put I think they could be in the cellar 3-4 years.

Over, I don't expect them to be as good as last year but not by ten wins.

Under. This one's tough--I'm expecting clear regression, but the line is also projecting clear regression. Still, I'll go under. The absence or presence of 1-2 key injuries could make all the difference.

I think the Royals have overperformed the last season and a half.

I expect WS Champion hangover this season. The chip has been knocked from their shoulder.

OTOH, I don't expect them to utterly flounder in the first to last mode either.