Three Uncontrollable Factors Are Helping the Twins' Competitors

With 61 games left in the season and four days remaining before the trade deadline, the Twins currently have a one-game lead for the second wild card spot and the 17th-easiest remaining schedule. On paper, that’s a good place to be. However, as the trade market heats up, there are a number of factors that could conspire to make their standing precarious and could cause the team to miss the playoffs entirely. 

Looking at the playoff landscape, the Yankees and Orioles seem to have the AL East crown and first Wild Card spots locked up. Were the season to end today, the Twins would have the second wild card, and the Royals would earn the third. There are a number of teams in the hunt, such as the Red Sox, Mariners, and Rangers, who all have the talent for a deep playoff run and could beat out the Twins for a wild-card berth if things don’t break right for the team, or if the front office isn’t smart about maximizing their position.

Three factors can actively help the Twins' competitors. All three are outside the Twins' control.

Competitors Being Aggressive
Overnight, news broke that the Rays had traded Randy Arozarena to the Mariners. Over the past two months, he’s sporting a .919 OPS and immediately upgrades their lineup. He has averaged 3.4 bWAR per season and will give them a boost in their playoff push.

One team the Twins hoped were selling is clearly not. The Rangers are set to get Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle back from the IL, and just saw the return of Max Scherzer. Their front office says they hope to be buyers.

There are more. The Astros have been linked to Isaac Paredes and Eric Fedde, and are expected to get Justin Verlander back soon. The Orioles are talking with the Tigers about Tarik Skubal. The Red Sox are on the record as looking for impact starting pitching and right-handed bats. While the Royals haven’t been publicly linked to any big names, they spent big this offseason and appear to be all-in this year.

Any of these teams could easily land Garrett Crochet, and any team making a big deadline move could earn a couple surplus wins over their current roster construction. If the Twins do not trade for at least one impact player, that would put them at a distinct disadvantage.

Reallocation of CBT Funds
On Wednesday, MLB and the MLBPA announced a renegotiation of the Competitive Balance Tax disbursement, agreeing to redirect funds to teams whose RSN broadcast fees have negatively impacted their ability to field a quality team. This is likely to shake up contending teams’ perception of their finances and resulting willingness to take on additional salary.

While we don’t know how these funds will end up being allocated, we do know that teams are eligible to receive up to $15M based on their TV revenue losses. The Mariners, Astros, Guardians, Rangers, and Twins are among the American League teams who may be among the recipients of these funds. However, the payout is expected to be capped at $75M league wide, and will likely be proportionately doled out in relation to financial losses, so we could see any of those other teams receive more cash than the Twins and attempt to outbid the Twins for similar players.

Strength of Schedule
With the 17th-easiest strength of schedule, the Twins should be able to play better than .500 ball the rest of the way as they get healthier. However, many of the other teams in the playoff hunt have even easier schedules to play. Here are the AL competitors' remaining schedule strength, from easiest to hardest.

Yankees 1st
Rangers 2nd
Mariners 4th
Orioles 5th
Tigers 7th
Twins 8th
Astros 9th
Royals 11th
Red Sox 13th
Guardians 14th
Rays 15th

As you can see, looking at playoff contenders, the Twins are in the middle of the pack, with the Yankees, Rangers, Mariners, and Orioles likely to pick up a game or two over the Twins on schedule strength alone.

Overall, when looking at all of the above factors, a few teams stand out as being the biggest threats to the Twins' playoff chances. The Mariners have been aggressive on the trade market, have additional CBT funds, and have an easy schedule. The Rangers haven’t yet been aggressive with trades but have said they hope to be buyers, will also receive CBT funds, and have a very easy schedule. The Yankees are the Yankees, and not making a big splash would be a bigger surprise than if they do. 

Based on these factors, it’s clear that if the Twins hope to control their destiny, there should be a significant sense of urgency to trade for an impact player and to do it soon. If the Twins don’t, it’s possible they will find themselves squeezed out of the playoff picture entirely by a couple of teams that aren't afraid to be aggressive.

What do you think? Should the Twins make a big splash, even if it means losing some valuable prospects? Who would you like them to trade for? Comment below to get the discussion started!