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    A (Twins) Territory Divided


    John  Bonnes

    A pair of very non-scientific twitter surveys taken this week confirmed what the Twins Daily forums have demonstrated for some time: Twins Territory is split on what the Twins trade deadline strategy should be.

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    Sunday’s @TwinsDaily survey results surprised me. That night, after posting the latest Gleeman and the Geek podcast titled Buyers or Sellers, I posted a @TwinsDaily survey asking followers if the Twins should buy (trade prospects for players), sell (trade players for prospects) or stand pat.

    If you listen to the podcast, you’ll hear very little debate about the strategy; both Aaron and I were in wait-and-see mode until the Twins get through a difficult stretch facing the Yankees and Dodgers. But for now, with the Twins within 1.5 games of Cleveland, both of us were leaning towards “buy”.

    The Twins Daily community that replied - a whopping 2099 of them - were not:

    https://twitter.com/twinsdaily/status/886742794366316546

    Were Twins Daily followers mindful of the Twins true quality level? Wary that Cleveland would eventually run away with the division? Enamored by the prospects that could be acquired in a deal trading away Ervin Santana or Brian Dozier? Convinced that any postseason placement would likely end with a first round exit to Houston? Leery of giving up too much future value so soon into a competitive window? I don’t know, but the results ran counter to the media narrative.

    The perception in the media is that Twins fans want the team to go all in, but this survey suggested that Twins faithful, even after the last seven years, were content to be patient. Was it possible that this view was unique to the Twins Daily community?

    So Tuesday morning I asked AJ Mansour to post the same survey on the @KFAN1003 twitter account. They have a much larger following, and they’re certainly sports fans, but likely more passionate about the Vikings and more casual when it comes to the Twins.

    They might be more casual. They are not more patient:

    https://twitter.com/KFAN1003/status/887279472499724292

    Perhaps the media perception that sport fans (or perhaps more accurately, Vikings fans) want the Twins to go for it this year is correct after all. But there is at least some evidence that the pressure to make a deal at the trade deadline is overstated, at least in regard to Twins fans. Or at least that Twins fans see both sides and, even with only 11 days until the trade deadline remaining, are willing to wait a bit longer.

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    However, the counter argument is that good teams don't give up 6+ runs a game, or get beat by a large margin on a frequent basis. You are correct that a loss is a loss regardless of the margin, but run differential remains as as one of the tools you can use to help determine if a team's record is supported by the play on the field, and how good the team is. When's the last time a world series team had a run differential similar to what the Twins have this year? (I don't know, so it's a legitimate question I should try to research!)

    The beloved 87 Twins,  05 Padres, 07 Arizona, 84 Royals,  and the 97 Giants. made the playoffs with a negative run differential.  Texas in 15 and 16 were very close to even.  Less than 20 to the positive  The 2014 Cards, also sneaked in.  As the back end of rotations get worse it will be possible for good teams to have negative run differentials and still have some success in the playoffs.

     

    The beloved 87 Twins,  05 Padres, 07 Arizona, 84 Royals,  and the 97 Giants. made the playoffs with a negative run differential.  Texas in 15 and 16 were very close to even.  Less than 20 to the positive  The 2014 Cards, also sneaked in.  As the back end of rotations get worse it will be possible for good teams to have negative run differentials and still have some success in the playoffs.

    Thanks for the research. Of course none of those teams was even close to the Twins current -61 differential. Only one was even more than -20, the 05 Padres at -42. So, I don't really think any of them has a differential even in the neighborhood of where the 2017 Twins sit at this point. The Twins will have to outscore their opponents by 40 runs the rest of the way to get to the mean of those teams. That would be an awesome turn around though!

     

    I'm pretty sure they can.

    Really? They're 64 and 32. .66 win %. That's 111 wins. They're very good. But that's a tough pace to maintain for 162 and still have anything left for the playoffs.

     

    Twins have a decently talented club. Young and very capable of catching fire for several weeks.

    I can pretty much guarantee that any business, particularly one in the entertainment business, cares about getting blasted in the media.

     

    They earn their money by selling their product. Perception of that product is pretty important. They've gone from selling out the season in TFs first season to less than 2/3 full.

     

    They care, and what's more, the media would be correct in blasting them, and I think more people than not would agree with that sentiment.

     

    As for players, I'm going to guess that things like this matter when FAs decide between competitive offers, too.

    Yes, I too sometimes wonder what free agents think about going to Minnesota? They have a long history of dumping people, they did quite well with free agents back in the late 80's and early 90's, (Jack Morris, Don Baylor, Chili Davis, etc....) but I can't think of any real good ones as of late, except the big singings of Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana

     

    Really? They're 64 and 32. .66 win %. That's 111 wins. They're very good. But that's a tough pace to maintain for 162 and still have anything left for the playoffs.

    Twins have a decently talented club. Young and very capable of catching fire for several weeks.

    My statement was that I think the Astros can maintain their level of play. They have played very good baseball and I think that will continue. That does not necessarily mean their winning percentage will stay the same, especially during the last couple weeks of the season when they are setting up their team and rotation for the postseason.




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