Finding Offense the Rest of the Way

[MMBoys93]

 Rosters are set and regardless of what you think of the deadline, it's over and now the focus is on making the playoffs.

Adding Jenkins is what everyone wants but let’s look at the full picture.

The bats have slowed since the deadline. 24th in team OPS in last 30 days with a plethora of guys who aren't strong defensively as well.

 

Ideas on should be replaced (in no particular order)-

Josh Bell- played in 95% of games with an OPS+ of 99. Bell has taken about 70% of all DH ABs meaning that guys like Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Keaschall have had to play the field at times this year when the Twins could hide their fielding inefficiencies at DH more often. 

Austin Martin- only plays against Lefties and as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Provided a ton of value early when there were tons of Lefty starters in the first month, but really only provides OBP against lefties, and with less playing time his ABs vs lefties have gotten tougher. He’s still a net positive when he plays but he’s just barely playing. Twins are still awful against lefties as a team.

Alex Jackson- I’m not really sure why the Twins didn’t elect to trade a catcher and this is heavily dependent on how much catching they feel Jeffers can do, but Jackson’s expected numbers are rough. He just finally took his first walk, is striking out almost 1/3 of the time. He likely gets claimed but we’re going for the playoffs right?

Caratini- he’s played in 72% of games this year, a lot of that because Jeffers was injured, but a backup catcher with an OPS+ of 86 should be playing 40% of the rest of the way max. Jeffers hopefully can start 60% at catcher. 

Ryan Kreidler- starting daily because there are no other defensively competent SS options at the moment- metrics say he’s the same hitter he’s always been. Even with one incredible game in the past week he’s at a .528 ops in his last 30 games. Would be a bench guy on other playoff teams.

Gray- Not strong defensively, stopped hitting, really provides no value. 
 

Options to replace these ABs-

Kaelen Culpepper- sub .500 ops in 50 PAs since returning from injured list but as he returns to form, he can easily replace 50-70% of Kreidler’s innings as long as he hits. He’s hit righties and lefties equally so he can play every day if he hits. Kreidler can fill in defensively later in the game, but 

Aaron Sabato- an odd pick to replace/supplement Martin. He’s probably as bad defensively as Josh Bell but he’s hit lefties at a 1.226 ops this year in St Paul. He’d require a 40 man addition but could fill a very unique role the Twins need as they struggle against lefties again.

Hendry Mendez- I get he’s only 22 but he’s already on the 40 and has hit extremely well at 2 levels. 3:4 BB/K ratio in AAA and a .900 ops vs righties tells me he’s as ready as he can be. Defensively limited to LF hurts his value with Larnach however. 

Alan Roden- yeah he’s already on the team but in 21 games he has 49 PAs. He had a 1.000 ops against righties, .850 against lefties, is more defensively competent in the outfield than most on the team and has held about a 1:1 BB/K ratio in AAA/MLB combined. Savant likes his early quality of AB but wants him to hit the ball harder. His LD rate in the minors gives me some pause, but he could be playing more.

Walker Jenkins- top prospect, healthy, .777 ops in July. 21 years old. Everyone would be excited to see him but he’d need to play every day and I’d expect offensive warts early  but could provide some needed juice/excitement. Buxton and Mauer both came up at 21.  Buxton struggled, Mauer did not. Has produced almost no power against lefties in the minors but he seems to see the ball well. 

Matt Wallner- ending with everyone’s favorite option. He’d really only work if Bell is kicked to the curb, which isn’t going to happen right now. I’ll only point out that he has an ops north of 1.000 against righties in AAA and still has an ops of .849 against righties over his career. 

 

My takes:
 Finding room for Martin and Sabato on the team could really help that 26th ranked OPS against lefties. Idk how you work it though and you wouldn’t need it unless you expect a bunch of lefties soon. 

Gray should go down immediately. Lee can play SS every once in a while. Gray provides nothing better than Kreidler. 

Jackson DFA when Buxton returns. He has no remaining options, but 3 catchers is not helpful. 

 Bell and Caratini play more sparingly. 

 

Tough to open up a spot for more than one guy when Buxton returns, so everything goes back to Josh Bell for me. Is a 99 ops+ worth it? The negative effect he has on the team fielding by being the DH every day hurts a ton. He’s not worthless by any means, but 0.4 bWAR could be replaced in so many ways.