The formula for beating the Astros

[Rik19753]

In order to beat the Astros, at least one of these two things must happen:

1. The Twins beat Justin Verlander at Minute Maid

2. The Twins win both games at home

It is mathematically impossible for the Twins to advance if neither is achieved. They get two cracks at Verlander in games 1 and 5, and if they lose both, and lose another at home, that adds up to 3.

Honestly, both of these seem like very daunting tasks. I would say that 1. is more likelier to happen, just because the Twins have 2 chances, but given his utter dominance against the Twins it's hard to have confidence. Verlander as an Astro has pitched 42 innings against the Twins in 6 starts, and Twins hitters have a .328 OPS against him. That's not a typo, Twins hitters have a slash line of .102/.146/.182 in 145 PAs. It is unbelievable.

Which do you think is more likelier to happen?