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Provisional Member
Posted

The captains numbers are false. The current mortality rate is ~3.6%. Using his numbers there is 4% mortality rate in the US!

To downplay the severity by using false numbers is shameful.

Someone should be demoted

Posted

 

Why do every and all viruses come into the United Sates. It's just sucks we allow them all in. None of them, ever have originated here.

Widely believed that the Spanish Flu originated on an army base in Kansas.

Posted

I live to watch sports but they gotta do what they gotta do....I work in a Hoarders Paradise, I mean a grocery store and it has been mass hysteria...Some lady told me I could make Hand Sanitizer out of Beer! haha haha uh, oh hell no. Not wasting that in case there is a run on beer!

 

I will miss the NCAA Brackets and wait for Baseball and for cripes sake quit eating weird f#@(&!%g food!!

Posted

 

The captains numbers are false. The current mortality rate is ~3.6%. Using his numbers there is 4% mortality rate in the US! To downplay the severity by using false numbers is shameful. Someone should be demoted

 

I'm confused--you're saying my numbers are false and that I'm downplaying the severity, yet the number I gave (based on actual news reports) is higher than the number you quoted.  Therefore, if anything, I'm "upplaying" the severity.

Provisional Member
Posted

Or it could be like China, which is now (if Chinese sources can be trusted, which I'll grant is a big if) in steep decline--only 24 new cases for the entirety of mainland China yesterday. China had to keep things under lock for about 6 weeks to get this result, but it's a good result--80k total cases and 3.2k deaths; the US equivalent would be 19k cases and 760 deaths. That would be a 0.005% chance of a US citizen being infected, or one out of every 17k people, and a mortality chance of 0.0002% (1 out of every 434k people).

 

The coronavirus should certainly be taken seriously, and suspending sporting events is part of that, but from an infection/death standpoint, the coronavirus is likely to be of far less impact than the annual winter flu is every single year.

In your example you stated 19,000 cases and 760 deaths. 760÷19,000=.04=4/100=4% NOT .0002%

4% is much bigger than .0002%

4% is a one in 25 chance.

This ain't the flu and to dismiss it as such is worse than foolish, it is dangerous

Posted

 

In your example you stated 19,000 cases and 760 deaths. 760÷19,000=.04=4/100=4% NOT .0002%
4% is much bigger than .0002%
4% is a one in 25 chance.
This ain't the flu and to dismiss it as such is worse than foolish, it is dangerous

 

Ok, you misunderstood.  The .0002% chance is not the chance of dying if you contract the illness, it's the chance of dying from the illness if you live in the United Sates (assuming the rates of infection and deaths are identical to the reported numbers from China).  760 divided by 330M is .0002%.  It's the same rate as one person in the entire city of Minneapolis dying.

 

I'm fully in support of people being careful, limiting or eliminating contact with others, self-quarantining when necessary, and forcing the quarantine of people who won't self-quarantine, but to pretend like coronavirus is Ebola or Bubonic Plague, or even the Spanish Flu is hysterical and breeds panic, which is the greater danger in the current climate.

Posted

Ok, you misunderstood. The .0002% chance is not the chance of dying if you contract the illness, it's the chance of dying from the illness if you live in the United Sates (assuming the rates of infection and deaths are identical to the reported numbers from China). 760 divided by 330M is .0002%. It's the same rate as one person in the entire city of Minneapolis dying.

 

I'm fully in support of people being careful, limiting or eliminating contact with others, self-quarantining when necessary, and forcing the quarantine of people who won't self-quarantine, but to pretend like coronavirus is Ebola or Bubonic Plague, or even the Spanish Flu is hysterical and breeds panic, which is the greater danger in the current climate.

But the only way you keep infection rates as low as your example suggests is by taking the drastic measures that you consider "panicking".

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