CiabanItReal

I think your right on both accounts, but all the injuries made an impact on their offensive production though. And dozier is a really good fit for the dodgers.

You've made that pretty clear by now. However a guy who managed a 9.3 K/9 over 150 minor/major league innings and a 1.8 BB/9 isn't likely to be a quad A guy, not with that kind of control and strike out stuff. in fact, I can't think of a guy with that kind of command that didn't succeed in the majors without injury. He has a projected FIP of 3.62 next year, that would put him in Carlos Martinez/ Julio Tehran territory.

Then why haven't the twins traded him for more than a JDL, Stewart, Alvarez package? If he's WORTH MORE they would have received it by now since he's been available for more than a month. The dodgers seem to value Buehler as highly as they do Alverez. Remember he was a guy getting considered to go 1:1 the year he came out but fell due to VALID injury concerns.

40 home run hitters aren't worth what they once were, look at all the RH free agent power hitters still on the market.

Me too, he's already made 6 mill and has another 15 guaranteed to him on the way. That's 21 mill in career earnings even if he sucks from this point forward, guys have sold out their free agent years for less than that. He already has a good amount guaranteed, now it's time to maximize earnings.

I'd be O.K. batting 2014-2016 Dozier higher up in the order because of the base stealing, but yeah, I do agree with you.

He would be more valuable, however he doesn't have that contract, and he wouldn't take a 1 year extension with a team option at this point.

Can he lead off? Because even his career best .345 obp in 2014 still isn't ideal for a lead off hitter, and he just as easily could go back to his 2013/2015 OBP of .309 and .312

IDK he had the exact same BB and K rates two years in a row.

One of the reasons the dodgers haven't blinked yet is because they might be concerned about regression, in terms of home runs and in particular OBP. They also might not feel like the need two FULL years of Dozier and would rather pay less for 1.5 years of Dozier, since they really only need him for the playoffs. That and wait until July to see how his 2017 goes, where the rest of the market is at, and see how the depreciation of time effects his market.

Probably the lack of interest in Dozier after the dodgers. and then the way certain guys like Bellinger fit into the organizations short-long term plans.

The problem is the twins can look elswhere for major league ready top pitching prospects. Even other teams with good minor league systems may end up being deep in position players and week in pitchers ala the cubs.

Fair is relative though.

You've come down a lot on the asking price compared to where you were a few days ago if you think that's fair for both sides, what gives?

Yeah I thought that too, that this could just be posturing by the twins. I think this is true for both sides, the dodgers can't sit around and play a game of chicken forever, even though some have suggested that "it would serve them right" to have to go into next year with Utley at 2nd base, they can't sit around forever and wait on the twins, or Utley may sign elsewhere, and then they'll have nothing. Also, what starting pitchers are they going to sign? Have you seen what's left on this market?

My point is that they can't do that forever, they can do that this winter, and maybe next summer. But if he's still on the team come the winter of 2017, can they still say "if we don't get what we want will hold on to him" can they do that in the summer of 2018 when he's staring down free agency? Say "we'd rather get nothing than a package we think is sub-par".

Well given the power of hindsight we know exactly every trade a team should or shouldn't take. That not really fair, at the time in 2001 yeah, you probably do that trade, but with the all seeing magic crystal ball of hindsight, probably not. Then again, if we know for a fact that JDL will put up 10 war over 6 years, maybe I would trade Dozier for him, since 10 war over 2 years is likely the best case scenario for Dozier anyway. He's most likely a 7-8 war player the next two years. Which is good, but isn't worth as much in this market when 11 2nd basemen produced 4 war seasons last year. Dozier is a player who even with his improving slugging percentage has had a wildly fluctuating OBP 2013: .312obp 2014: .345obp 2015: .309obp 2016: .340obp I have no idea what he'll do next year, though the scary thing is that there was no difference in his K% or BB% from 2015-2016 despite the 30 point difference in OBP.

For all the moaning about the market for Dozier, the twins in a sense got lucky, if only one team was going to be interested in Dozier, which team would you rather have interested in him than a team like the dodgers considering the Twins need for pitching and the dodgers pitching depth. And the fact that Kinslers partial no trade happens to include the team that's most interested in dozier. And for all the talk about Dozier being worth more at the deadline, even if he doesn't slump I don't know if that's true. Even if you assume some teams will have a 2B under produce or get hurt, it's not as though we get to chose those teams. What if those teams are the Angels, Orioles, and Giants. What package is this team going to get that's better than one headlined by Deleon Another thing to consider is that the twins are the market for 2nd basemnen, that might not be true at the deadline, since some teams that are competitors are going to inevitably suck. Even if there are teams with good minor league systems that need a 2nd basemen at the deadline, what if Detroit finally makes Kinsler available(he only has a partial no trade clause), or the Rays make Logan Forsythe available or the padres make Yangvaris Solarte available. Now the twins aren't the only game in town. While no one is advocating a 1:1 swap, or taking pennies on the dollar, there is going to come a point where the twins can't just walk away from the best offer available. There are realistically 4 chances to trade Dozier. This winter, this coming summer, next winter or the following summer, after that he can be a free agent, and the team gets nothing. So while the team can insist other teams blink first now, that's not a negotiation tactic that will hold forever.

Actually according to the write up your referencing, he's most likely to be a 10 war player since that's the average of likelihoods (far from scientific) I don't know why, but you keep taking the most extreme conservative valuation of DeLeon as gospel, and ignore any valuation that suggests otherwise. Yeah but which is more likely him being a 20 WAR player over 6 years or you winning the lottery? That sort of depends on what Joe Mays were talking about, like Joe Mays circa today. No, I wouldn't take Willie Mays for Dozier right now. But Joe Maye circa 2001 when he led the league in ERA+ made the All-Star team and produced a 6.7 rWAR, yeah probably.

They're also predicting Hunter Renagroe to put up 2.4 war over the next 6 years, which seems....low.

Who is they?

IDK with the problems they had vs LHP last year, trading Puig to get Dozier doesn't really solve the problem, just sort of shifts it from 2nd to the OF.

You also need to consider where the teams are on the competition curve, 10 war over two years for a team that is awful isn't worth as much as it is to a team that's good. Conversely 10 war over 5 years is worth more to a team that's bad than it is to a team that's good. The other thing is we don't know how that 10 war will be divided up over the years. It could go 1, 1, 2, 3,3 then he suddenly has decent trade value even though that just averages to 2 war a year, because he'll have shown the ability to be a mid rotation starter for two straight years. BTW where is this 10 war for DeLeon coming from? (btw even if Dozier is good and healthy there is no guarantee that he'll produce 10 war over 2 years anyway, I think he'll be closer to 6-8)

And they shouldn't be either, since it's difficult to gauge trades until a few years down the road.

But how much more value dose he provide? This is a team that's going to be really competitive with or without him. The giants don't have the ability to fix their holes at the deadline, and they've proven to be one of the best in those do or die games around, I think they're less worried about it than others.